Market Analysis & Trends - The S&P 500 experienced a 20% drop and subsequently reached new all-time highs, highlighting a typical rally following such declines [2] - Markets tend to rise unless there's a specific reason for them to decline [4] - The S&P 500 generally trends upwards, mirroring the behavior of the money supply [6] - The current market movement shows similarities to the pattern observed in 1998, including a 20% drop followed by a surge to all-time highs [7][12] - Q3 (August/September) tends to be a period of market weakness [33][34][35] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has remained relatively stable at 42%, a level that historically supports market growth [5] - The unemployment rate in 1998 was in a macro downtrend, contrasting with the current situation [22] - The recession in 2001 didn't begin until the unemployment rate reached 43%-44% [24] - The lowest unemployment rate in the dot-com era was 38%, while the current cycle saw it drop to around 34%, the lowest since 1969 [25] Investment Strategy - A 20% drop in the S&P 500 is considered a buying opportunity [28] - The S&P 500 divided by M2 is a useful indicator for identifying local tops and bottoms [26]

Tool Introduction - IntoTheCryptoverse introduces a new metric analyzer tool for cryptocurrency, similar to tools used in other asset classes [1][2] - The tool analyzes Bitcoin's price action after specific events, initially focusing on moving averages, with plans for future expansion [2][3] - Users can analyze ROI (Return on Investment) after events like weekly closes above or below specific Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) over different timeframes (1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) [3] Bitcoin Analysis - Analysis of Bitcoin's historical performance after weekly closes below the 50-week SMA shows an average price increase of only 3-4% three months later [4] - Bitcoin tends to increase significantly after a weekly close above the 50-week SMA after being below it [5][6] - When Bitcoin closes above the 20-week SMA, the average return one month later is up 3%, three months later up approximately 40%, and one year later up approximately 376% [9] - Bitcoin's average return a year after closing below the 200-week SMA: 2015 (155%), later on 164%, 2020 (almost 1,000%), 2022 (30%), 2023 (160% and 125%) [11] Comparative Analysis - The tool allows comparison of Bitcoin's performance with other assets like Ethereum and Solana [7][8] - Users can analyze how Ethereum performs after Bitcoin closes above the 50-week SMA [8] - Users can analyze Solana's price performance when it closes above its 20-week SMA [8] Future Development - IntoTheCryptoverse plans to add more technical indicators and features to the tool to enhance its utility [6] - The company is considering incorporating the number of coins above their 50-week SMA as a metric [9] - The company is considering excluding earlier price action (e g 2012) to provide more relevant and believable data [10]

Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - The analysis of HODL waves reveals the percentage of Bitcoin supply that has remained unused in transactions for specific durations [2] - Short-term holders (holding for less than 6 months) often enter during market mania phases and exit quickly when the hype subsides [4][5] - Long-term holders tend to accumulate Bitcoin when the price is stagnant and decrease their holdings during bull runs, selling to short-term holders [7][8][9] - Short-term holder peaks often coincide with peaks in Bitcoin's price [9] - Long-term holders accumulate throughout bear markets, even during significant price drops (e g 60-70%), and sell when the bull market arrives [10][11] - Similar HODL wave analysis can be applied to other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum [13] Holder Behavior - Short-term holders often buy at market tops and capitulate during downturns [12] - Long-term holders demonstrate patience, accumulating during bear markets and profiting during bull markets [10][11] Data Insights - Less than 1-2% of the total Bitcoin supply is held for less than a day [3] - Approximately 17% of the Bitcoin supply is held for between 6 months and 1 year [3]

Market Cycle Analysis - Bitcoin normally peaks in Q4 of the post-halving year, though each cycle could be different [1] - Cycles one and two could be combined into a single cycle [1][2] - The cycles have shown interesting similarities [2] Bitcoin Performance - Two cycles ago, Bitcoin was up about 100x (10,000%) [2] - Last cycle, Bitcoin went up about 20x (2,000%), approximately 1/5 of the previous cycle's increase [2] - So far this cycle, Bitcoin is up about 7x (700%) [2]

Market Cycle Analysis - Bitcoin's ROI from the low is nearly 7x, indicating diminishing returns in the current cycle [3] - In the previous cycle, Bitcoin was up approximately 14 to 15x at a similar point, while the cycle before that saw a 24x increase [3] - Cycles 3 and 4 ended around day 1,059 and 1,067 respectively, measured from the low, while the current cycle is on day 968, projecting a potential peak in Q4 [5] Historical Performance - Two cycles ago, Bitcoin increased by over 100x, while the last cycle saw an increase of about 20x (approximately 1/5) [7] - Currently, Bitcoin is up about 7x this cycle, which is more than 1/5 of the previous cycle's gains [7] Future Outlook - The analysis suggests monitoring the market cycle ROI chart, especially towards the end of the year, for potential insights [9] - The report anticipates a potential midterm year bear market following the peak, similar to previous cycles [9] - The analysis suggests that major market cycle bottoms occur approximately every four years, presenting accumulation opportunities [10]

Market Analysis and Predictions - The analysis suggests the US dollar index (DXY) is nearing a low point, potentially within the next few months [17][18][24] - The dollar's recent weakness is attributed to perceived weakness against trading partners and upcoming tariff deadlines [19][20] - The analysis anticipates a bounce in the dollar index, potentially after rate cuts in September, citing a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a higher chance of a 50 basis point rate cut [20][21] - The dollar index has been in a massive parallel channel since 2008, and is currently at the bottom of this channel [10][11] - The analysis suggests that the majority of the losses for the dollar in 2025 have already occurred, comparing it to the 2017 cycle [25][26] Technical Indicators and Historical Patterns - The analysis points to a long-term trend line that has been respected for a long time, suggesting it will likely find a higher low compared to the last cycle [23][24] - The analysis notes similarities between the current cycle and the 2016-2017 cycle, including a breakdown in the post-election year [15][16] - The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the dollar is low, historically leading to a bounce [33][34] - The daily RSI for the dollar has recently moved into oversold territory, often resulting in a bounce [34] Correlation and Risk Assets - The analysis emphasizes that the dollar's performance is relative to other fiat currencies, not necessarily to assets like Bitcoin or gold [8] - The analysis highlights that the correlation between the dollar and risk assets like Bitcoin is not always consistent, especially outside of midterm years [30][31][32]

Market Analysis & Trends - The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) is a key indicator for Bitcoin, with its ability to hold above this average suggesting the market cycle's integrity remains intact [1] - Historically, a weekly close below the 50-week SMA has signaled the end of a Bitcoin cycle and the halfway point of a bear market [1] - Diminishing returns across Bitcoin cycles may lead to more frequent tests of the 50-week SMA [2] - Bitcoin dominance tends to increase regardless of market conditions, suggesting a strategy of holding Bitcoin to mitigate downside risk [2] - The analysis suggests a potential test of the 50-week SMA, currently around $85,000-$86,000, in the near future, possibly as early as Q3 [2] Historical Patterns & Observations - In previous cycles (2013/2014 and 2017/2018), touching the 50-week SMA often marked the cycle's end [1] - The 2021 cycle differed, as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs even after a weekly close below the 50-week SMA, possibly due to it not being a midterm election year [1] - Historically, bear markets have predominantly occurred in midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) [5] Risk Management & Future Outlook - Maintaining positions in Bitcoin provides exposure to potential upside while minimizing downside risk [2][8] - The analysis suggests that while predicting exact market tops is difficult, monitoring the 50-week SMA is crucial [2][10] - A failure to hold the 50-week SMA as support could indicate the start of a typical bear market [5]

Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]

Market Valuation - The total cryptocurrency asset class is approximately at 3266 trillion [1] - The cryptocurrency asset class is undervalued by approximately 1823% [1] Investment Strategy - As long as the cryptocurrency asset class remains below the red line, Bitcoin is expected to outperform most of the rest of the market [1]

Market Valuation and Trends - The fair value logarithmic regression trend line for the cryptocurrency asset class is approximately $3.99 trillion [3] - The total cryptocurrency asset class is currently valued at around $3.266 trillion, representing an undervaluation of approximately 18.23% [3] - Historically, the cryptocurrency asset class has often remained below the fair value logarithmic regression trend line [4] - Bitcoin has been outperforming most of the altcoin market, leading to altcoins bleeding to Bitcoin [4] - Bitcoin rallies are supported by ETF flows, companies adding Bitcoin to their reserves, DCAing (Dollar-Cost Averaging), and conversion from altcoins [8] - The asset class has found support multiple times at a level representing approximately 30% undervaluation [17][18] Factors Influencing the Market - Monetary policy, particularly interest rates, is considered a significant factor influencing altcoin rallies; higher interest rates may hinder durable altcoin rallies [14][15] - Quantitative tightening also plays a role in preventing durable altcoin rallies and overvaluations [15] Future Outlook - The general expectation is that the cryptocurrency asset class will eventually reach approximately $10 trillion, plus or minus a few trillion [19]