Market Cycle Analysis - DeFi Report 认为加密货币市场目前充满不确定性，可能面临牛市恢复或进入熊市的转折点 [1] - DeFi Report 此前过长时间保持风险偏好，近期已开始降低风险敞口，并评估了周期结束和潜在融涨的风险 [1] - DeFi Report 在 10 月 10 日的闪崩前已转为风险规避模式，原因是观察到市场杠杆过高但基本面疲软 [1][3] - DeFi Report 认为当前扩张阶段已持续 1044 天（截至 9 月底），与之前周期长度相似，暗示周期已进入后期 [2] - DeFi Report 认为即使在牛市情景下，ETH 的交易价格也可能达到 8500 美元，但在 10 月初仍将融涨视为基本情况 [2] Investment Strategy & Risk Management - DeFi Report 的投资策略是选择少量高质量资产，基于数据基本面（尤其是链上数据）进行长期买入并持有，同时根据市场周期调整风险 [1] - DeFi Report 的目标是在周期结束时持有更多现金，以便在熊市中进行部署，并强调在市场风险规避时进行投资 [1] - DeFi Report 已将现金头寸增加到 50%-60%，原因是比特币交易量低迷，ETF 流量放缓 [3] - DeFi Report 目前持有 70% 的现金头寸，并巩固了其最高信念的投资 [3] - DeFi Report 认为在周期后期，如果持有时间过长，可能会错过历史高点，因此需要根据信念采取行动 [3] On-Chain Data & Market Indicators - ETH 期货的估计杠杆率接近 1，远高于历史水平，表明市场存在过度杠杆 [3][4] - DeFi Report 认为大量稳定币购买活动增强了交易者进行杠杆操作的信心，但同时也导致市场结构变得脆弱 [4] - DeFi Report 认为长期比特币持有者已实现 9000 亿美元的利润，高于上个周期的 5000 亿美元，表明卖方压力较大 [5] - DeFi Report 认为 ETH 的已实现利润为 2600 亿美元，低于上个周期的 2200 亿美元，表明 ETH 的周期相对比特币较为平淡 [5] - DeFi Report 认为前七大加密资产的资本基础为 173 万亿美元，市场估值为 31 万亿美元，杠杆和估值溢价可能在熊市中消失 [6] Macroeconomic Factors & Liquidity - DeFi Report 认为全球流动性扩张可能持续到 2026 年上半年，但加密货币市场结构和基本面仍然重要 [7][13][14] - DeFi Report 认为银行同业拆借利率超过联邦基金利率可能导致银行体系流动性紧张，增加市场波动性 [7][18][19] - DeFi Report 认为财政政策（如关税）可能通过将资本从私营部门转移到公共部门来减少流动性 [7][39][40] - DeFi Report 认为 AI 泡沫破裂可能对市场产生重大影响，类似于 2001 年的科技泡沫 [7][34]

📣DeFi Report https://thedefireport.io/ ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠ ...

📣DeFi Report https://thedefireport.io/ ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠ ...

Stablecoin & Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The stablecoin Tether's market capitalization could potentially surpass Bitcoin's [1] - Tether is described as a tokenized dollar, suggesting its potential to become a dominant digital currency [1] - The growth of Tether could occur at the expense of Euro dollar deposits and traditional banking systems outside the US [2] - The US administration may have the goal of promoting the use of Tether [3] Potential Value Capture - An increase in Tether's circulating supply from 200 billion to 2 trillion (an incremental 1800 billion) would result in enormous value capture for Tether [4] - Crypto equities might perform better than expected due to blockchain utilization [4]

If I took JP Morgan for instance, they are operating supported by 313,000 employees, but a JP Morgan built on the blockchain might need 20,000 employees and operate with far greater clarity and vision and efficiency. So JP Morgan may end up being especially using AI more of a tech company. They're replacing humans with tech spend and using the blockchain for finality and security.and the multiples of banks should change, you know, going from trading at price to tangible book to actually having a PE multiple ...

I was an ETF guy for 5 years. I've launched leveraged ETFs in Asia on various things. And when my boss showed me how to structure these things and like the math behind this, I was like, "Okay, so why would you ever trade one of these things? They're absolutely the most dog product ever. You should never ever ever ever buy one a leverage ETF. Just go buy a futures contract. You want leverage or two times leverage. It's just the worst thing you could ever buy." So, it's just funny that you're going to add you ...

This cycle is different than the la the last three if you want to take a look at Chinese credit and US credit which leads me to say there is no four-year cycle at least right now and so we are in sort of a extended cycle we're going to call it new world order change in trade situation whatever right and so I am of the opinion that this cycle ends when the Trump administration ends because it'll be a reaction against Trump whether you like it or not and you know that's a 2028 late 2027 story when the rhetori ...

Assuming you do get to 5% which maybe happens this year, maybe happens next year, do you stop. What what happens next. >> You know, 5% as you pointed out was in some ways aspirational cuz we were just thinking about, you know, what's the level of ETH holdings that isn't going to be disruptive to the ecosystem, but a level that can actually allow you to have positive benevolent influence.And so I think 5% was sort of that way point. But we've spent some time with other researchers and especially thinking abo ...

By year end, our target for Bitcoin is 200 to 250,000. And for Ethereum, somewhere between 10 and 12,000. >> Bitcoin just hit an all-time high the day of recording at 126,000.Ether, you know, I would like it to get at least above 5,000 this month, hopefully. Uh Arthur, what do you think the the year end ranges will be for for both Bitcoin and ETH. >> Stay consistent.$250,000 Bitcoin, $10,000 ETH. >> $10,000 ETH. You think ETH can do more than a doubling in two and a half months.Yep. >> By year end, our targ ...

Welcome to bake list where today we are exploring prediction markets. There are a ton of questions going around about prediction markets. Maybe initially what are they? But really why are they capturing so much attention right now. Who are the big players? Where do they come from? And maybe the big question is how big are prediction markets and how big can they get? some people think that they're going to become absolutely huge. And then why are prediction markets sometimes compared to sports betting platfo ...