joining us this afternoon, Richard Fischer, former Dallas Fed president and Jeff senior adviser. Richard, great to see you again. Thanks for joining us today.Yeah, thank you Carl. What's up. Um, you know, the thing that got a lot of attention in in Pal's remarks was this notion that equities are quote fairly highly valued.I was thinking back to when Yellen got some blowback for saying small cap biotech shares were expensive back in the day. Did Did this line strike you as interesting. I think it's interesti ...

RT stevenmarkryan (@stevenmarkryan)When the marginal cost of:- Energy- Labor- IntelligenceFall to ~$0.Humanity enters an era of ABUNDANCE.The future is gonna be amazing. ...

Economic Impact - Deporting workers leads to crop spoilage, construction delays, and difficulties for nursing homes [1] - The deportation of workers results in tangible economic costs across various sectors [1]

my employees are saying they're gonna be OOO for something called "Labor Day" on Mondayso basically you are celebrating the idea of labor by not doing labor for that daywtf kind of a scam is this?everyday is labor day ...

So, we're here at Jackson Hole at the Kansas Fed's annual economic symposium where there is clearly a lot of jockeying for position and that position is the new Fed chair. Do you have an opinion on monetary policy. So, we just had Jerome Pal's speech at Jackson Hole where he just opened the door to a rate cut in September.Is this Waller one of the guys who's in the running for the next Fed chair. There's so much ambiguity right now, but within that, somebody has to nail it. Yeah.Well, I nailed it. No questi ...

Market Trends & Economic Factors - This week's events, including the Fed decision, PPE data, and jobs report, could be an inflection point for stocks trading near records [1] - Markets are pricing in potential weakness in the labor market, despite current strength [4] - Tariffs are now six times higher than when Trump took office, representing the highest levels in post-World War history, which could become an issue [3] - Confidence is returning, leading to increased spending, particularly in CapEx [15] Company Performance & Earnings - UPS stock has been a disaster for 3.5-4 years, cut in half, indicating company-specific problems [5] - Coinbase's upcoming report is crucial given its recent run; strong results are needed to justify valuation [6] - Tech earnings, particularly Google's, are in focus; while Google had a good quarter and guidance, CapEx spending is now viewed with caution [7][8] - Meta's spending on talent and CapEx, coupled with Llama 3's performance, raises concerns about profitability [9][10] - Microsoft's Azure is gaining traction in AI sales due to its OpenAI relationship [11] Bond Market & Yields - The bond market is stubborn, with yields starting to tick up, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6] - There will be a level where the market starts to care about bond yields [7]

Social Commentary - The author suggests that the removal of meaningful labor contributes to societal issues [1] - The author links lack of physical activity and meaningful labor to potential mass violence [1]

Labor Market Access - Danish government plans to ease access to foreign labor for Danish companies [1] - The plan aims to balance anti-immigration policies with the needs of the Danish economy [1]

Immigration Crackdown Impact - US industries like crop production, food processing, and construction are significantly impacted by immigration crackdown, with undocumented immigrants comprising 15% to 20% or more of the workforce [1] - Initial weeks saw a slight lull in construction, but no major problems have been observed recently on construction sites [3] - Labor shortages are significant, especially for skilled trades, leading to increased labor costs [11] Regional Differences - Southeast region experiences less impact compared to Texas and California, which have a higher percentage of Hispanic construction workers [5][6][7] - Nationally, over 60% of roofers and over 50% of painters are Hispanic [6] Employer Responsibility - Home builders primarily check licenses, workman's compensation, and insurance certificates of subcontractors, but not the individual workers of those subcontractors [9] - Responsibility of ensuring legal status falls on the subcontractors [9] Housing Market Dynamics - Supply chain constraints have eased, but labor remains a significant constraint [10][11] - Tariffs on lumber from the Pacific Northwest and Canada negatively affect the US and home building industries by increasing costs [12][13] - Rent increases are being kept reasonable at around 2% to 3% despite rising costs [14] - Renting is now cheaper than buying a home in all 50 MSAs in the US due to high interest rates [15] - Properties are nearly 100% full, indicating strong demand [16]