Now that you are all freaking out about some 50 week moving average .... this Oct 2019 tweet (when BTC was $8k, and most people were freaking out about miner capitulation after 2020 halving, and I was predicting $55k) feels relevant.PlanB (@100trillionUSD):A stock-to-flow 100 asset, being worth less than gold ... is like a planet 100 astro units from the sun, rotating faster around the sun than Pluto https://t.co/8jeGypMrZT ...

Market Analysis & Outlook - The analysis suggests the recent Bitcoin dip to $95,800 from a high of $126,000 is a temporary correction within a bull market, not the start of a bear market [1] - On-chain data indicates a realized cap of over $850 billion, more than double the November 2022 low, signaling accumulation rather than capitulation [1] - Historical data shows that a 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA has often marked local bottoms in bull runs, with subsequent rebounds of 45-100% [2] - Polymarket bets are pricing in a year-end Bitcoin price of $122,000-$138,000, factoring in tariffs and Federal Reserve pauses [4] - Multiple sources are eyeing $180,000-$250,000 by the end of the year or Q1 2026, viewing the current dip as a shakeout before further extension [6] Institutional & Market Flows - Spot ETF inflows have reached a record $150 billion in assets under management (AUM) by mid-year, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $84 billion [3] - Trading volume is at $47.5 billion daily, up 20% week-over-week, with stablecoin dominance increasing as a hedge, indicating a bull market correction [3] - Corporate treasuries, such as MicroStrategy, continue to accumulate Bitcoin, indicating structural demand decoupled from retail FOMO cycles [3] Risk Assessment & Mitigation - A weekly close below $96,000 could lead to a deeper flush to $70,000-$77,000, which is still considered bull territory at 30% off the all-time high [4] - Even skeptics anticipate a floor of $70,000 if their predictions are incorrect, rather than a significant drop below $20,000 [5]

What is worse?1) sell 1 BTC now at $95k and having to rebuy at $110k, which then results in no $ loss but you only have 0.86 BTC ($95k/$110k)2) don't sell 1 BTC at $95k and seeing it drop to $80k, which then results in $15k loss but you still have 1 BTC ...

Current dip in bitcoin price from $126k to $95k is:1) the start of a bear market2) a normal dip in a bull market ...

Majority was wrong https://t.co/grug9hHdo0 ...

I see stories about "old whales dumping bitcoin", but the data does not support those stories.Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual. https://t.co/w2aHjJ3XmD ...

Glad we got rid of altcoins this cycle https://t.co/EI9M3R1mdj ...

Just a scenario (no not a prediction, just one of many possible scenarios), what-if? https://t.co/J8OBwnd5TI ...

What comes first? ...

Bitcoin back at $100k .. arithmetic and geometric mean still divergingMy analysis here 👉 https://t.co/vxrFSNWtGS https://t.co/O27fqrhqCP ...