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X @PlanB
PlanB路 2025-10-31 08:57
Only constant in human action is greed & fear (in the chart: RSI color overlay). IMO greed (red) will return.Scarcity (in the chart: S2F dotted line) is a fundamental driver of value, together with other factors. Bitcoin is scarcer than gold. IMO mcap BTC will be > mcap gold. https://t.co/DGwvTNe0kU ...
X @PlanB
PlanB路 2025-10-20 13:07
Market Analysis - Some analysts predict Bitcoin will fall below $100 thousand and enter a bear market in 2026 based on the 4-year halving cycle [1] - The industry believes relying solely on the 4-year halving cycle to predict market tops is a misunderstanding, as three cycles are insufficient for a reliable pattern [1] - The S2F model predicts the average price level in a halving cycle, not specific tops or bottoms [1] - The industry suggests the peak could occur in 2026, 2027, or 2028, emphasizing the importance of the average price level [1] Technical Indicators - A fundamental Bitcoin phase transition has not yet occurred in the current cycle [2] - Realized price (grey line) has not diverged from the 200-week moving average (black line), and RSI has not exceeded 80 (red) [2] - The industry suggests a significant price jump is pending, or the market has transitioned to a more stable regime dominated by institutions [2] - A major bear market is unlikely without a significant price surge (RSI 80+ and realized price diverging from the 200-week moving average) [2] Institutional Influence - The industry notes a potential shift towards a more stable price regime influenced by institutional mandates (e g 1%-10% BTC) and rebalancing strategies [2] - Institutional strategies involve selling after price increases and buying after price decreases to maintain target exposures [2]
X @PlanB
PlanB路 2025-10-18 08:36
32% thinks $126k was the top63% thinks bitcoin will drop below $100,00068% thinks 2026 will be a bear marketBut why? Can you please explain to me your reasoning behind a big drop and/or a bear market from here (ideally with data and charts)? https://t.co/rzCZanpTtg ...
X @PlanB
PlanB路 2025-10-07 09:16
Market Sentiment - 63% of people anticipate Bitcoin's price falling below $100 thousand [1] - The market observes $100 thousand resistance potentially transforming into $100 thousand support [1] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin's September close marked the 5th consecutive monthly close above $100 thousand [1] - Historical trends show similar patterns at $10, $1 thousand, $100, and $10 levels [1]