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PlanB· 2025-10-31 14:17
Bitcoin whitepaper is included in block 230009 on the blockchain. If you run a BTC node then you can retrieve the pdf yourself:1) run node: bitcoind2) run client with this command: bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction 54e48e5f5c656b26c3bca14a8c95aa583d07ebe84dde3b7dd4a78f4e4186e713 0 00000000000000ecbbff6bafb7efa2f7df05b227d5c73dca8f2635af32a2e949 | sed 's/0100000000000000/\n/g' | tail -n +2 | cut -c7-136,139-268,271-400 | tr -d '\n' | cut -c17-368600 | xxd -p -r >bitcoin.pdf ...
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PlanB· 2025-10-31 08:57
Only constant in human action is greed & fear (in the chart: RSI color overlay). IMO greed (red) will return.Scarcity (in the chart: S2F dotted line) is a fundamental driver of value, together with other factors. Bitcoin is scarcer than gold. IMO mcap BTC will be > mcap gold. https://t.co/DGwvTNe0kU ...
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PlanB· 2025-10-20 13:07
Market Analysis - Some analysts predict Bitcoin will fall below $100 thousand and enter a bear market in 2026 based on the 4-year halving cycle [1] - The industry believes relying solely on the 4-year halving cycle to predict market tops is a misunderstanding, as three cycles are insufficient for a reliable pattern [1] - The S2F model predicts the average price level in a halving cycle, not specific tops or bottoms [1] - The industry suggests the peak could occur in 2026, 2027, or 2028, emphasizing the importance of the average price level [1] Technical Indicators - A fundamental Bitcoin phase transition has not yet occurred in the current cycle [2] - Realized price (grey line) has not diverged from the 200-week moving average (black line), and RSI has not exceeded 80 (red) [2] - The industry suggests a significant price jump is pending, or the market has transitioned to a more stable regime dominated by institutions [2] - A major bear market is unlikely without a significant price surge (RSI 80+ and realized price diverging from the 200-week moving average) [2] Institutional Influence - The industry notes a potential shift towards a more stable price regime influenced by institutional mandates (e g 1%-10% BTC) and rebalancing strategies [2] - Institutional strategies involve selling after price increases and buying after price decreases to maintain target exposures [2]
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PlanB· 2025-10-18 08:36
Market Sentiment - 32% of respondents believe $126,000 was the peak for Bitcoin [1] - 63% of respondents anticipate Bitcoin's price will fall below $100,000 [1] - 68% of respondents predict a bear market in 2026 [1] Future Outlook - The report seeks data-driven reasoning behind the expected price drop and/or bear market [1]