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PlanB· 2025-07-02 08:56
FYI: I still believe that bitcoin average price will be ~$0.5m this halving cycle (2024-2028).Note that S2F prediction is very rough (obviously because the prediction is made only using scarcity/S2F-ratio) with a $0.25m-$1m range (so $0.3m or $0.6m average would also be fine).PlanB (@100trillionUSD):Average bitcoin price 2020-2024 halving cycle was $34k. A bit below 2019 S2F prediction of $55k, but still in normal range and not bad given BTC<$4k when prediction was made. Refit of S2F with new data (below) s ...
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PlanB· 2025-06-26 13:01
Market Analysis - Bitcoin's RSI is currently at 70, indicating it may be approaching overbought territory according to traditional investors [1] - The typical RSI range for Bitcoin investors is 40-90, making an RSI of 70 only slightly above the average of 65 [1] Investment Considerations - Traditional investors may perceive Bitcoin as overbought at RSI 70, potentially leading to concerns [1] - Bitcoin investors may view RSI 70 as within a normal range, suggesting less concern about overbought conditions [1]
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PlanB· 2025-06-16 09:28
Adoption S-curve only steepens on linear scale (red line). It looks like "the vertical" between 10% and 90% adoption is where all the action is.On log scale there is no vertical (blue line). Only exponential growth, until ~50% adoption: 1% -> 2% -> 4% -> 8% -> 16% -> 32% etc. https://t.co/zkpSr0m76b ...
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PlanB· 2025-06-16 07:17
RT Adam Back (@adam3us)@bradmillscan @saylor or alternatively it could be a transition period for a parabolic break out! 🟩🟩🟩🟩 where the S-cuver gets steeper, invalidating "diminishing return" theory, and breaking power-law, and then s2f models to the upside. that's my what-if anyway. ...
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PlanB· 2025-06-12 08:21
Bitcoin has tracked powerlaw very well.Question is: will we see a 2013,2017,2021-like bull run with RSI 80+ (red dots) and if so how high will BTC go from here, 100x like 2013, 10x like 2017, 4x like 2021, or 2x (to ~$200k) like most people think, or .. 5-10x in line with S2F? https://t.co/gqX9RY510y ...