Market Cycle Analysis - The BTC rainbow chart indicates the market is in the mid to late stage of a bull market expansion [1] - Binance Research suggests Bitcoin has experienced bull and bear cycles of approximately four years since 2014 [2] - If the end of 2021 marks the beginning of the last cycle, the end of 2025 would mark the end of this bull market cycle [2] Institutional Impact - Binance questions whether the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat due to the rising proportion of institutional involvement [3] - Institutional involvement is expected to decrease the behavior of chasing rallies and selling off in panic [3] - Institutions are more likely to engage in countercyclical operations, accumulating during downturns and gradually reducing positions during uptrends [4] - Countercyclical operations could smooth out the wild volatility inherent in the crypto market [4] October Performance - Historically, October has seen positive returns in nine of the past 11 years, with an average gain of 20% [5] - October's performance will be a key component in determining whether the four-year cycle continues [5]

One of my favorite things to find on the internet now are these videos of all the humanoid robots. Many times in the videos, they're walking. They're going up and down the stairs. They're putting things away in the refrigerator. They're folding clothes.They're even spinning around on the ground. Every time I say to myself, "Man, those robots are pretty athletic. They look pretty smart. And frankly, I just want one. I want to own it. I want it to be in my house, in my office. I want to walk around with me." ...

Hello everyone. It's time for Bitcoin to shine. The debasement trade that's not going to stop anytime soon. Jordy Vist is going to break down the catalyst for Bitcoin through the end of the year. And Elon Musk released a new robot video that is going to scare the heck out of you. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. [Music] Before [Music] we get into today's show, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers. Right now, we only have 28,089 subscribers. Hit the button and let's ...

Remember those stimulus checks we got back in 2020. $1,400. The government was handing it out like candy.Well, if you had taken that $1,400 and bought Bitcoin when you got the stimulus check, you'd now have over $21,000. So, think about the difference here. When you got the stimulus check, you could have went and spent it on whatever you wanted or you could have invested it.And that is ultimately the example of what's happening in society. We have a K-shaped economy. Investors are winning and consumers are ...

Macroeconomic Shift - The research indicates a shift from a debt deflation mindset, prevalent since the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), to a currency debasement mindset marked by large procyclical fiscal deficits [1] - The debasement mindset prioritizes protecting purchasing power against asset and monetary debasement, and asset inflation [1] - The research suggests this shift is a secular change lasting over a decade, with investors gradually recognizing its implications [1] Investment Strategy - The research favors equities, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate as preferred assets in the debasement era, viewing them as inflation hedges [1] - Dips in these assets are expected to be short-lived as investors prioritize protecting purchasing power [1] - Equities are considered inflation hedges because S&P earnings have generally tracked above inflation over the past couple of decades [1] - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7,000 by 2026, based on anticipated earnings, margins, and reasonable multiples on sales and earnings [1] Bond Market - The research suggests bonds will have a place in portfolios, offering valuable diversification [1][6] - A cyclical period of disinflation is expected, driven by factors like weaker oil prices, a softening labor market, and lower shelter inflation [1][8] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts are anticipated to influence bond yields, with potential for a bull steepening in the yield curve [1][10] Labor Market - The research suggests the weakening labor statistics may be both cyclical and structural, influenced by technology innovation like AI [1][25] - Immigration trends impact the labor market, affecting the break-even rate for job creation needed to maintain a constant unemployment rate [1][47] - The research describes a "malignant stasis" in the labor market, where the unemployment rate may not rise significantly, but underlying conditions could be fragile [1][50] Gold and Bitcoin - The fund is overweight both gold and Bitcoin, viewing them as positive assets in the debasement world [1][55] - Gold is expected to continue its secular bull market, with violent moves higher and longer-lasting trends than anticipated [1][58] - A rotation back into Bitcoin relative to gold is anticipated towards the year-end or in the next six months [1][60]

Volatility is coming. That is the message from Goldman Sachs. They say that volatility tends to be 25% higher in October.It says 1928 October S&P realized volatility average 18 vol versus 15 vol for other months. Seth Associates say that they believe high October volatility is more than just a coincidence. They say that they believe it is a critical period for many investors and companies that manage performance to calendar year end.Regardless of why it happens or what you think is actually driving this, th ...

Gold has been on an absolute tear recently and many investors are wondering what has been going on. It's supposed to be a stable store of value with very little volatility on a day-to-day basis. That's why a 15% move in just a month has put all eyes on the precious metal.As a result, gold is on track for its seventh quarterly gain over the last eight quarters, which is its best streak since 2020 as well. Now, these large inflows are noteworthy, but they don't explain why so much capital is flocking to an as ...

What does the future look like if the bull market is actually just beginning. These are the questions that I'm asking myself and they're not rooted in some fantasy world. Carson Group's Ryan Dietrich shows that Q4 is the single best quarter of the year historically. The last quarter of the year has an average return that is nearly twice as strong as any other quarter of the year.Ryan goes on to explain that Q4 has a positive return 14 of the last 15 times as long as the S&P 500 was up 10% or more going into ...

Hello everyone. We are in a structural bull market and boy is it fun. And now I've got data that suggests things are only going higher in the coming months.Jordi Viser is going to join us to explain why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade in the market. And the recent seasonality data suggests that volatility is coming in the month of October. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano.[Music] Before we get into today's show, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube, but we ...

All right, Tom. The Trump economy. Everyone wants to talk about it.He had a lot of economic promises that he made on the campaign trail. So did uh his opponent. Uh we only get to run one of the experiments, which is the Trump because he's the one who won.Do you think that the economy is better or worse than what we expected given the economic policies that he was talking about coming into office. Thanks for having me first of all. Um so I get the fun questions.I like these. Uh, based on the stock market, so ...