Hello everyone. Investor confidence has been rocked and asset prices are falling aggressively. We've got five charts that going to explain what's happening with Bitcoin and Palunteers Alex Karp.He drops one of the best rants I've seen on American innovation. We are live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. Before we get into today's show, I need your help.We currently have 38,82 subscribers. My first goal is to get to 50,000 subs. Hit that subscribe button.Help us reach the goal. And let's get into toda ...

Listen to From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano on: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-desk-of-anthony-pompliano/id1819778503 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1THAGnR1Xt1WDUn1CCTh1D Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at: http://pompletter.com Join 600K+ subscribers on my main cha ...

Market Analysis & Economic Outlook - Market selloff last week spooked investors, questioning the bull market's continuation [2] - Easy money from rate cuts and AI optimism were key market drivers, now under scrutiny [3][4] - White House anticipates real purchasing power to substantially accelerate in the first half of 2026 [11] - The market volatility is less likely to be the start of a big recession or a big market crash across all asset classes [23] Investment Strategies & Opportunities - International stocks are expected to outperform US stocks [27] - Humanoids and longevity are seen as areas with asymmetric returns [31][33] - Bitcoin is considered a potentially best-performing asset due to tokenization and clarity act [32] Economic Data & Consumer Sentiment - Purchasing power dropped by approximately $3,000 under Joe Biden's presidency but has increased by about $1,200 under President Trump [10] - 54% of Americans with incomes between $30,000 and $80,000 now have a taxable brokerage account [18] - Nearly 40% of 25-year-olds now have an investment account, up from 6% in 2015 [19] AI & Automation Debate - A politician proposes regulations to prevent companies from using AI to eliminate jobs [34] - Concerns raised about limiting technological evolution and its potential to create more value for workers [36] - AI is automating tasks, leading to increased efficiency, productivity, and profits for companies [42]

Hello everyone. Asset prices are crashing and everyone's freaking out. Chicago's treasurer just made one of the craziest investment decisions I've ever seen.Jeff Park's going to explain if $100,000 is Bitcoin's new base. And we finally have a second American company who has successfully landed a reusable rocket. We are live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano.Before we get into today's show, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. We currently have 37,933.Hit the button ...

Market Intervention & Policy Impact - The "Trump put" is seen as a deliberate strategy to influence the stock market through announcements and social media posts [1][2] - A potential $2,000 tariff dividend for most US citizens is proposed, suggesting a fiscal stimulus approach [1] - Easing of trade tensions, such as backing down from a 100% tariff threat with China, can positively impact market sentiment [2] Economic Indicators & Monetary Policy - The US president gauges the economy's health based on stock market performance [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, specifically the second cut in the same number of meetings, are expected to drive asset prices higher [3] Market Outlook - Clarity on the China trade deal is anticipated, which is expected to positively influence asset prices [3] - The market is responding positively, suggesting a potential return of the bull market [3]

Housing Market & Affordability - The home affordability crisis is impacting monetary policy, financial markets, and American politics [1] - High interest rates contribute to an erosion of home affordability, as higher mortgage rates reduce the number of people who can afford to own a home [1] - Solving the housing crisis presents an economic opportunity for companies in the real estate market [1] - Building more housing, regardless of type, is presented as a solution to drive down housing costs [2][4] - Increased housing supply leads to lower prices, following basic economic principles [2] Investment & Financial Markets - Open Door's stock price increased from around $0.50 per share to $9.37 per share [1] - Lenar's year-to-date performance is down 2%, Dr Horton's is up 6%, and NVR is down nearly 9%, while Pyroup is up nearly 13% this year [1] Economic Policy & Principles - Milton Friedman's recipe for economic success includes cutting government spending, restrained monetary policy, and eliminating regulations [16] - Cutting taxes and regulations, maintaining near-zero money supply growth, and stable monetary policy are advocated [17] - Free markets are considered better for the economy than government intervention [18] Warren Buffett's Investing Principles - Warren Buffett's average annual return is 20% since 1965, nearly double the S&P's average [6] - An $18 investment with Buffett would have grown to $750,000 by 2025, a return of over 5.5 million percent [6] - Timeless investing principles, as demonstrated by Warren Buffett, can lead to wealth [10]

Market Trends & Bull Market Drivers - The bull market is driven by higher corporate profits and higher profit margins [3][6] - S&P 500 third quarter earnings are expected to be up approximately 8%, but are currently tracking over 13% year-over-year [4] - Over 80% of companies have exceeded expectations [5] - Profit margins are currently at new cycle highs [5] - A global bull market is underway, with European financials reaching all-time highs [17] Investor Sentiment & Market Indicators - Despite the bull market, the Fear and Greed index indicates that investors are fearful [18] - The American Association of Individual Investors sentiment poll has shown more bears than bulls this year, a rare occurrence historically associated with down years [20] - The S&P 500 has traded within 3% of its all-time high for five consecutive months [31] - Historically, when the S&P 500 is up 10% year-to-date going into November, the last two months of the year tend to be positive [35][37] - S&P 500 companies with more than 50% of their revenue from overseas are experiencing better earnings, with earnings up 14% compared to the overall S&P 500 earnings increase of 131% [41][42] Fed Policy & Economic Factors - The market anticipates the Fed will likely cut rates in December [52] - Historically, when the Fed cuts rates within 3% of an all-time high, the S&P 500 is higher a year later 21 out of 21 times, with an average increase of 14% [53]

Labor Market Analysis - The labor market deterioration is attributed to a combination of factors: the launch of Chat GPT in November 2022, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates around March of that year, and a retrenchment from the pandemic hiring boom [3][4][5] - Companies are shifting from pure growth to efficiency, aiming to grow revenue and profits with the same or fewer employees, with AI playing a significant role [7][8] - Job growth is decelerating but normalizing to pre-pandemic (2018-2019) levels, with AI potentially causing further slowdowns due to anticipated productivity increases [8][9] Market Sentiment and Valuation - There's peak "bubble fear talk" in the market, potentially influencing asset prices, but enthusiasm and anxiety are also peaking [10][11] - Current market frothiness, as indicated by Google search trends, is approaching pandemic levels, reminiscent of the GameStop and meme stock era [12] - The NASDAQ to Dow ratio surpassing dot-com era levels isn't necessarily concerning, reflecting a market bias towards growth and technology [15] - The S&P 500 PE ratio is at levels similar to the early to mid-1990s, suggesting valuations are still a third lower than the dot-com bubble [19][20] Investment Strategies and Asset Performance - Bitcoin's volatility is seen as a feature, offering a 33% average annual return between 2018-2025, but requiring investors to stomach a 51% average intra-year drawdown [21][22][23] - Berkshire Hathaway has lagged the S&P 500 since Warren Buffett announced his retirement, potentially due to his investment style and the types of businesses he owns [24][25] - Berkshire Hathaway's large cash pile (over $380 billion) presents a challenge in deploying capital effectively [34][35] Best Ideas Club and Vertive - Best Ideas Club interviews investors weekly to identify their highest conviction stock pick for the next 12 months [39] - Vertive, a picks-and-shovels AI stock providing liquid cooling systems for data centers, has gained 87% since being published in May [41][43] - The Best Ideas Club portfolio has almost doubled the S&P 500's performance over the last 39 weeks [44]

Listen to From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano on: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-desk-of-anthony-pompliano/id1819778503 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1THAGnR1Xt1WDUn1CCTh1D Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at: http://pompletter.com Join 600K+ subscribers on my main cha ...

AI & Tech Industry Trends - The AI revolution is underestimated, and tech stocks will continue to move higher [7] - A capex super cycle is occurring, with big tech expected to spend close to $550-600 billion next year [6] - The US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years due to companies like Nvidia and Palantir [17][31] - The biggest constraint for US tech is power availability, which needs to be addressed to avoid limiting the AI arms race [20][22] - The market is shifting towards vertical integration, with big tech companies planting flags across the board [23] Investment Opportunities & Strategies - Focus on the second, third, and fourth derivatives of AI, including companies like Nebas, Coreweave, Aqua, and GE Vernova [8] - Cyber security companies like Zscaler, Palo Alto Networks, and CrowdStrike are derivative beneficiaries of AI [8][42] - There are two to three years left in the tech bull market, supported by a Fed cut cycle and $7 trillion on the sidelines [29][30] - The NASDAQ could reach 25,000-30,000 as disruptive technology spreads to utilities, energy, and financials [38] - Consider investing in an AI-focused ETF to pick the AI winners [77] Company Specific Analysis - Palantir is building the next Oracle/Microsoft/IBM and could reach a $1 trillion market cap in the next two to three years [62][67] - Tesla's biggest advantage is data scale, scope, and Elon Musk, with autonomous driving alone worth $1 trillion [49][50] - Apple could add $7,500 to its market cap due to AI, with the consumer AI revolution going through them [56]