Housing Market Trends - The housing market is undergoing a recalibration period after the pandemic boom, with a shift in the supply-demand equilibrium towards buyers [7][16] - A bifurcation exists in the housing market, with Sun Belt and Mountain West areas experiencing more softening compared to the Midwest and Northeast [19][20] - Existing home sales are approximately 13 million below the normal trend, indicating a significant constraint in the purchase side of the mortgage market [35] - Refinance activity is also experiencing a three-year drought, coinciding with the low purchase side, making it a tough period for the mortgage industry [42] Builder Strategies and Margins - During the pandemic, builders had significant pricing power and record profit margins, but they have since compressed margins to entice buyers [3][4][5] - Builders initially used mortgage rate buydowns as a successful lever, but are now resorting to outright price cuts in some areas like Florida and Texas [6][8] - Builder margins have seen compression year-over-year among the top 11 publicly traded home builders, although many still exceed pre-pandemic levels [10] - Some builders are choosing to protect margins by pulling back on the overall number of sales, leading to a softening in single-family housing starts [11] Factors Influencing the Market - The deceleration of migration to Sun Belt areas means local incomes must now support prices, which are detached from underlying incomes [21][22][23] - The "lock-in effect," where homeowners are hesitant to give up lower mortgage rates, is impacting both supply and demand in different regions [28][31] - Tariffs have not had a significant impact on build costs, as only 7% of residential construction materials are imported, and some key materials were excluded from tariffs [13][14][15] Open Door Analysis - Open Door overpaid for homes in boomtown markets and faces challenges in the higher interest rate environment with less housing market churn [45] - There is skepticism about the long-term viability of Open Door's core I-buying business, but opportunities exist for the company to leverage its scale and attention to move into other business avenues [45][46]

I keep getting asked whether we're in an AI bubble. Are things that have gone up a lot about to go down a lot. Well, I thought that David Saxs recently on the All-In podcast had a great tiraate all about what's happening with artificial intelligence.AI is a powerful tool. I mean, I I definitely think it's a new and important form of computing and it is going to unlock tremendous value in the economy, but it's going to take us a while to get there. I mean, you can't just tell the AI, you know, be a sales rep ...

AI对就业市场的影响 - 一项研究表明，由于人工智能的广泛应用，22至25岁的早期职业工作者在人工智能暴露程度最高的职业中，就业率相对下降了13%[6] - 经济整体就业岗位持续增长，但与人工智能相关的岗位上，年轻人的就业机会显著减少[7][8] - 人工智能使得人们更容易在互联网上谋生，降低了创业、产品开发或服务销售的门槛，为年轻人提供了更多机会[10] - 报告建议年轻人应花时间掌握最新的AI工具，这可能直接关系到他们的职业发展[12] 零售业的影响力 - Cracker Barrel 更改品牌logo后，由于零售投资者和顾客的强烈反对，最终恢复了旧logo[13][14] - Cracker Barrel 的股票因此上涨了10%[19] - 零售业拥有话语权和资本，不容忽视[20] 比特币市场分析 - 比特币价格下跌的部分原因是季节性因素，历史上8月底至9月通常表现不佳，9月是唯一一个历史上为负的月份[22] - 传统金融市场的不确定性也对比特币价格产生影响，投资者对利率走向存在疑虑[23][24] - 比特币价格的调整和修正有助于清除市场中的杠杆，为后续上涨奠定基础[26][27] - 预计比特币的价格将在11万至12.5万美元之间波动一段时间，随着更多买家的进入和利率下调，价格有望回升[32] - 随着比特币资金流入市场，市场情绪将受到提振，可能引发FOMO（害怕错过）情绪[31]

Oh boy. Harvard economist Ken Rogoff had a wild take on Xorder this week regarding Bitcoin. He writes, "Almost a decade ago, I was the Harvard economist that said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100K. Dumb. What did I miss.I was far too optimistic that the US coming to its census about sensible cryptocurrency regulation. Why would policy makers want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities. It's talking about the dollar.Second, I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat c ...

US Government & Business - The US government is increasingly acting like a business, with a focus on dealmaking and economic upside [1][2][4][20] - The government took a 10% ownership stake in Intel in exchange for previously awarded funds from the Chips Act and the DoD secure enclave program, not through direct cash investment [6][12] - This action aligns with historical precedents where the government has taken equity stakes in companies during crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis (TARP program) and the 1984 Continental Illinois bank failure [8][10] - The appointment and potential removal of a Federal Reserve board governor is being viewed through a business lens, similar to a CEO firing an employee accused of a serious crime [17][18][20] Volatility & Investment - Volatility, when harvested correctly, can be a useful tool for risk management and yield generation, especially in assets like Bitcoin [23] - Bitcoin's volatility is a designed feature due to its fixed quantity, leading to price volatility as a natural outcome [24] - Intraday volatility in crypto is as important as close-to-close volatility, and Bitcoin exhibits fat kurtosis with occasional gaps [27][30] - There are two types of investors: those who seek volatility for potentially higher returns and those who avoid it [32] Humanoid Robots & Nvidia - Nvidia has released a new humanoid robot brain powered by the Nvidia Blackwell GPU with 128 gigabytes of memory, targeting the software needs of humanoid robot companies [33][34] - Early adopters of Nvidia's humanoid robot brain include companies like Agility, Boston Dynamics, and Figure [34] - Nvidia is positioning itself to "tax the whole industry" by providing the software, memory, and intelligence for humanoid robots, rather than building the robots themselves [35]

Market Trend Analysis - Bitcoin's recent price drop from its all-time high of $124,000 has sparked debate about the bull market's end, but data suggests otherwise [1] - Bitcoin tends to cool off in late August and September during bull markets, a pattern observed in 2013, 2017, and 2021 [2] - The recent price drawdown is likely part of the normal volatility in Bitcoin bull markets [3] - Instead of multiple 30% drawdowns, the market now sees more frequent 5% to 15% drops [3][4] Bull Market Indicators - None of the 30 different Bitcoin bull market peak indicators from Coin Glass have been triggered yet [1] Future Outlook - October and November are expected to be positive, but short-term choppiness is anticipated [4]

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States of America, has finally waved the white flag on Friday. We know that the Fed has previously given up on the 2% target in practice. They haven't seen inflation at 2% since February of 2021.That is more than 50 months without the Fed achieving their goal of 2% inflation. So, to be honest, this development from the Fed is not surprising. Asset prices are at all-time highs and the central banks about to cut interest rates.What do you think is going to h ...

Jerome Powell's last Jackson Hole event as Fed chairman. In his remarks, Powell guided the market to a 25 basis point cut for interest rates in September. So, big deal.He's finally bending the knee. Now, this is a welcomed reprieve from Powell's previous position on the potential cuts. But regardless, it appears Jerome Powell and the Fed are going to give the people what they want in September.Cheap money's coming, baby. Stocks and Bitcoin reacted positively to this news. We know one thing to be true.Histor ...

The US dollar has lost 28% of its purchasing power since 2020. That's an insane debasement rate over a half decade. Now, this accelerated debasement is driving what Will Manitis calls casino culture.He writes sports betting, shitcoins, meme stocks, vibe coding, $100 million in 6 hours. It is all expressions of the same deep cultural rot. So, this brings me to the idea of meme stocks today.On one hand, meme stocks exist, but maybe not in the way you think. Most people point to GameStop and others as examples ...

Interest Rate Policy - The market anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September following guidance from Jerome Powell [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making will be data-dependent, assessing economic outlook and risk balance [1] - A friend of the company suggests that cutting rates into an economy where PMIs are going higher is just going to help the market in a significant way into the end of the year [1] - The company friend does not think the Fed should do a 50 basis point cut [1] Labor Market - The labor market is now considered more important than inflation in the Fed's decision-making [1] - Estimates suggest potential benchmark revisions for labor, indicating 500,000 to 900,000 job losses [1] - The labor market is more fragile than the 42% jobless rate suggests [2] Market Reaction & Economic Impact - Stocks surged 80 points and Bitcoin gapped up from $112,000 to $116,000 in response to the news [2] - Lower interest rates are generally viewed as beneficial for businesses, consumers, and investors, potentially leading to economic growth [2] - History suggests that a period of 5 to 12 months between Fed cuts is typically bullish for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising in 10 out of 11 instances [2]