策略报告 1 A 股行情回顾 上周（6.3-6.7)股指低开，上证指数下跌 1.15%，收报 3051.2 点，深证成指下跌 1.16%， 收报 9255.68 点，中小 100 下跌 0.50%，创业板指下跌 1.33%；行业板块方面，公用事业、 交通运输、煤炭涨幅居前；主题概念方面，连板指数、打板指数、高频 PCB 指数涨幅居 前；沪深两市日均成交额为 7655.39 亿，沪深两市成交额较前一周上升 4.49%，其中沪市 上升 6.29%，深市上升 3.12%；风格上，大盘股占有相对优势，其中上证 50 下跌 0.20%， 中证 500 下跌 1.88%；汇率方面，美元兑人民币(CFETS)收盘点位为 7.2426，跌幅为0.02%； 商品方面，ICE 轻质低硫原油连续下跌 2.07%，COMEX 黄金下跌 1.48%，南华铁矿石指 数下跌 2.95%，DCE 焦煤下跌 2.68%。 表 1：主要股指涨跌幅 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|-----------------|------------|------------|----------- ...

金属价格见顶。分品种来看，短期内，在金价突破历史新高之际，叠加金银比中枢回归驱 动下，白银价格将迎来加速上涨期。但从历史来看，白银属于投机性较强的品种，其稀缺 性远不及黄金，各国央行储备货币也基本不纳入白银。虽然白银价格短期爆发力强、但价 格持续性并不及黄金，后续见顶时间也大概率早于黄金，可采取"看白银做黄金"的策 略。 （6）优质小市值公司存在错杀可能性。近期 ST 板块及退市个股风险一度引发市场 广泛关注。对此，证监会表示，ST、*ST 制度的目的是向投资者充分提示上市公司相关 风险，满足一定条件后可以申请撤销。今年以来，已有 33 家公司触及退市标准，其中面 值退市 22 家，市场优胜劣汰机制正在逐步形成。2023 年全年退市 47 家，退市新规设置 了一定过渡期，预计短期内退市公司不会明显增加。我们认为，小市值公司整体回撤幅度 较大，部分优质小市值公司存在错杀的机会，后续在情绪企稳期存在修复的可能性。 总体来看，2024 年第二季度市场受业绩影响较大，重点关注估值与业绩的匹配性。 6 月份权益市场以稳为主、适当控制风险偏好，可逢低关注以下板块： （1）高股息板块。例如供需格局稳定、高股息的电力、高速、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "in line with the market" [4][24]. Core Viewpoints - The securities industry underperformed the market in May, ranking 25th among 31 Shenwan industry indices with a decline of 3.92% [4][6]. - The median PB valuation of listed securities firms decreased to 1.09 times as of June 3, down by 0.07 times from the end of April [4][8]. - There has been significant progress in supply-side reforms within the industry, highlighted by mergers and acquisitions involving Guolian Securities and Zheshang Securities [4][24]. - The report suggests focusing on high-quality leading securities firms, financial technology empowerment, and mergers and acquisitions as key investment themes [4][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The securities industry index fell by 3.92% in May, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [6][8]. - The top-performing securities firms in May included Guolian Securities with a gain of 4.21% and Guotai Junan with a gain of 1.31% [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - As of June 3, the median PB valuation for large securities firms was 1.06 times, while for mid-small firms it was 1.16 times [4][8]. - The report indicates a general decline in valuations compared to the previous month [4][8]. Supply-Side Reforms - Notable mergers include Guolian Securities acquiring 100% of Minsheng Securities and Zheshang Securities acquiring a stake in Guodu Securities [4][24]. - Guolian Securities plans to raise up to 2 billion yuan for its acquisition [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading firms such as CITIC Securities (600030.SH) and Huatai Securities (601688.SH), as well as mid-small firms involved in mergers like Guolian Securities (601456.SH) and Zheshang Securities (601878.SH) [4][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][4][11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 3.24% in May 2024, ranking 26th among 31 primary industries, underperforming compared to major indices [8][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on innovative drugs and their supply chains due to recent policy changes aimed at enhancing centralized procurement [9][10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - As of May 31, 2024, the average PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 26.21 times, ranking 5th among 31 primary industries, indicating a premium of 125.93% over the CSI 300 index [8][23]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Overall Situation - From January to May 2024, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a decline of 7.09%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [14]. 2.2 Sub-industry Situation - The pharmaceutical commercial, chemical pharmaceutical, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors showed slight increases, while medical devices, biological products, and medical services faced significant declines [18]. 2.3 Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in May 2024 include Myp Medical (+20.32%) and Kangwei Century (+19.35%), while stocks like Chunli Medical (-20.28%) and Chang Pharmaceutical (-19.01%) faced significant declines [21][22]. 3. Industry Valuation - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's PE is at a historical low, positioned in the bottom 13.80% since 2012, suggesting potential undervaluation [23][26]. 4. Important Industry News and Company Announcements - Recent policies from the National Medical Security Administration aim to enhance centralized procurement, expanding the range of drugs and medical supplies included in the procurement process [9][28]. - Companies like Baiyatai and Hengrui Pharmaceutical are actively pursuing new drug registrations and collaborations, indicating ongoing innovation and market activity [30][32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "In line with the market" [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector's fundamentals remain under pressure, but the factors suppressing performance are gradually improving, particularly due to a shift in real estate policy and a recovery in wealth management markets [27][28]. - The banking sector's performance in May showed a gain of 2.96%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.54 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 3.64 percentage points, ranking fifth among 31 primary industries [7][11]. - The overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the banking sector as of May 31 is 5.48X, reflecting a 67.71% discount compared to A-shares [7][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In May, the banking sector recorded a monthly gain of 2.96%, outperforming major indices [11]. - The banking sector's valuation has increased, with the P/E ratio at 5.46X as of June 3, 2024, and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.65X, both showing slight increases from the previous month [13][15]. Market Interest Rates - The yield on AAA-rated interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) for 1M, 3M, and 6M is 1.73%, 1.90%, and 1.96%, respectively, with slight declines compared to the end of April [17]. - The expected annual yield on wealth management products has generally decreased, with the most significant drop in 1-week products, which fell by 28 basis points [20][21]. - The average interbank borrowing rate in May was 1.85%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [22]. Industry Review - As of the end of Q1 2024, the total assets of the banking sector reached 429.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [24][25]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for commercial banks remained stable at 1.59%, with a total NPL balance of 3.4 trillion yuan [25]. Investment Recommendations - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve gradually, with a focus on banks with solid fundamentals, such as China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank [27][28]. - The report suggests that while the sector faces short-term pressure, the most significant challenges have passed, and performance is expected to improve sequentially [27][28].

行业研究报告 行业月度报告 医药生物 医药集采提质扩面，建议关注创新药及其产业链 2024年 06月05日 2023A 2024E 2025E 重点股票 评级 EPS（元） PE（倍） EPS（元） PE（倍） EPS（元） PE（倍） 评级 领先大市 华东医药 1.62 20.06 1.88 17.25 2.17 14.97 买入 评级变动： 维持 九典制药 0.76 35.19 1.04 25.73 1.35 19.78 买入 药明康德 3.30 13.12 3.30 13.12 3.66 11.82 买入 行业涨跌幅比较 凯莱英 6.14 12.51 3.29 23.26 4.11 18.70 买入 泰格医药 2.34 23.71 2.83 19.63 3.42 16.22 买入 医药生物 沪深300 13% 益丰药房 1.40 31.97 1.73 25.81 2.10 21.32 买入 3% 健之佳 3.22 15.20 3.57 13.69 4.34 11.27 买入 -7% 资料来源：Wind，财信证券 -17% -27% 投资要点： 2023-06 2023-09 2023-12 2024-0 ...

证券研究报告 策略点评 政策积极效应逐步显现， 核心城市有望继续改善 房地产市场周报（05.27-06.02） 2024年 06月03日 投资要点  本周观点：在房地产新政的助力下，本周 30 大中城市新房成交量继 上证指数-沪深 300走势图 续保持环比增长，但各能级城市延续分化格局，其中一二线城市当周 成交面积环比增幅分别达 15.22%、17.48%，而三线城市当周成交面 上证指数 沪深300 积则环比减少 5.46%。从近期商品房市场的表现来看，房地产新政的 12% 积极效应正在逐步显现，特别是核心城市的购房需求得到一定释放， 2% 但各能级城市间的分化仍较为明显。从政策面来看，近日上海、广州、 -8% 深圳三大一线城市进一步优化房地产调控政策，中国人民银行各省分 行也相继宣布全面取消首套、二套房贷利率下限，目前多城首套房贷 -18% 2023-06 2023-09 2023-12 2024-03 2024-06 利率已降至 3.5%以下，接近历史最低位。整体来看，随着“5.17新政” 的稳步推进，近期以来楼市销售持续改善，这将有助于市场信心的进 % 1M 3M 12M 一步修复。展望后市，恰逢 6 ...

图表目录 内容目录 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------| | | | 1 核心观点（央行再度提示长债风险,A 股市场缩量调整） | | 2 大类资产周度跟踪(美国 10年期国债表现亮眼) | | 3 股票（A 股各大股指悉数调整, 成长风格占优）… | | 4 债券（资金面维持宽松, 债市小幅震荡） | | 5 大宗商品（大宗商品映多涨少，伦敦银现领涨）. | | 6 高频数据跟踪（AH 股溢价小幅回升） . | | 7 重点数据大事展望 . | | 7.1 我国5月外贸数据 | | 7.2 欧央行利率决议. | | 7.3 美国 5月非农数据. | | | 8 风险提示 本周资产配置建议：美股＞债券＞A股＞港股＞大宗商品；A股方 面，当前A 股、港股估值仍偏低，伴随着政策密集发力呵护市场， 为国内股市打下一定基础，但鉴于短期外围降息预期延后，缺乏增 量资金背景下，市场或将延续震荡格局。建议关注：（1）高股息及 防御类板块。如：煤炭、公用事业等；（2）上游资源品板块。但短 期内需重视行情节奏；（3）出海板块。关注受益于外 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|---------|-------|-------|-------|--------| | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | | | | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | | | | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | | 3048.79 | | | | -0.54 | | 深证成指 | | 9340.01 | | | | -0.57 | | 创业板指 | | 1820.45 | | | | -0.71 | | 科创 50 | | 743.23 | | | | -1.17 | | 北证 50 | | 726.77 | | | | -2.66 | | 沪深 300 | | 3592.25 | | | | -0.07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------|-----------| | 类别 | 总市值 ( 亿 ...

2、2008 年 9 月，由于次贷危机波及全球金融市场，国内难以独善其身，央行决定重 启降息、降准通道，货币政策转松。 6、2014 年 4 月，国内经济增长持续乏力，同时有通缩趋势，央行开启定向降准释放 货币政策转松信号，年底开启全面降息及降准通道。 策略报告 本文从 2005 年 6 月起回测，"货币"方面根据央行货币政策转向操作的时间节点， 先后划分出 5 个"宽货币"和 5 个"紧货币"阶段，具体如下表。 资料来源：财信证券，ifind 1.2 "信用"宽紧划分 和经济活动的关系，一般在通常在景气开始复苏时，信用脉冲会上升；在经济衰退时，信 用脉冲会下降。信用脉冲的计算公式是： 图 2：中国-彭博信贷脉冲指数（%） 此报告仅供内部客户参考 -6- 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 图 3：宽信用与紧信用时期 1.3 "货币-信用"流动性阶段划分 表 5："货币-信用"组合划分情况 资料来源：财信证券，wind 2 中信股票风格 图 4：五种风格个股数分布（只） 金融行业靠货币发行和利率双轮驱动。金融提供的产品即是货币，所以说货币发行 相当于产品规模，利率相当于产品价格。在此基础上，由于金融业的高杠杆特 ...