晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3883.56 | 1.51 | | 深证成指 | 12441.07 | 2.26 | | 创业板指 | 2762.99 | 3.00 | | 科创 50 | 1287.73 | 3.20 | | 北证 50 | 1604.01 | 0.23 | | 沪深 300 | 4469.22 | 2.08 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 上证指数 沪深300 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 刘暾 | 研究助理 | liutun@hnchasing.com 晨会聚焦 【债券研究】债券市场综述 二、重要财经资讯 【财经要闻】上海出台进一步优化住房公积金提取和贷款政策 【财经要闻】上海发布楼市"沪六条" ...

晨会聚焦 晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3825.76 | 1.45 | | 深证成指 | 12166.06 | 2.07 | | 创业板指 | 2682.55 | 3.36 | | 科创 50 | 1247.86 | 8.59 | | 北证 50 | 1600.27 | 0.68 | | 沪深 300 | 4378.00 | 2.10 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -5% 15% 35% 55% 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 上证指数 沪深300 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 【债券研究】债券市场综述 二、重要财经资讯 【财经要闻】证监会修改证 ...

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing fluctuations and differentiation, with notable adjustments in high-position stocks [5][7] - The overall performance of blue-chip stocks is leading, while innovative small and medium enterprises are lagging behind [7][8] Economic Insights - From January to July, the online retail sales of agricultural products increased by 7.4% year-on-year [14][15] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 253 billion yuan on August 21, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan for the day [16][17] - A total of 20 distressed real estate companies have been approved for debt restructuring, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan [18][19] Industry Dynamics - In July, China's engineering machinery import and export trade amounted to 5.504 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [27][28] - The total electricity consumption in July increased by 8.6% year-on-year, with residential electricity consumption growing significantly [29][30] Company Performance Tracking - Salted Fish (002847.SZ) reported a 19.58% increase in revenue and a 16.70% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [31][32] - TeBao Bio (688278.SH) achieved a non-net profit of 431 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.68% [34] - Shangtai Technology (001301.SZ) reported a 34.37% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [36] - JiBit (603444.SH) achieved a net profit of 645 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.50% [38] - LiYuanHeng (688499) reported a revenue of 1.529 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, turning a profit with a net profit of 33.41 million yuan [41][42] - JiuZhiTang (000989.SZ) reported a net profit of 144 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 29.71% [43][44]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21, up 1.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.89% to 11926.74 [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% to 2607.65, and the STAR 50 Index saw a significant rise of 3.23% to 1148.15 [1] - The overall market showed a recovery trend with the total trading volume reaching 24,484.14 billion, a decrease of 1,922.65 billion from the previous trading day [7] Economic Insights - The LPR remained stable in August, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5% [15][16] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 616 billion, injecting liquidity into the market [17][18] - China's imports and exports to other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization increased by 3% year-on-year in the first seven months, reaching 2.11 trillion [22][23] Industry Dynamics - Xiaomi's subsidiary, Hanxing Chuangtou, invested in Weitai Robotics, indicating a growing interest in the robotics sector [26] - Beijing aims to become a global benchmark city for robot applications, with the humanoid robot industry accounting for about one-third of the national market [28] - The railway procurement platform announced the second batch of tenders for the Fuxing high-speed trains for 2025, including 108 sets of standard trains and 30 sets of cold-resistant trains [30] - A meeting on the photovoltaic industry emphasized the need for market regulation and the elimination of low-price competition, as production in several segments saw significant declines [32] Company Updates - Huadong Medicine reported a net profit of 1.815 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, with total revenue reaching 21.675 billion [35][36] - Kolyuan achieved a net profit of 51 million in H1 2025, a remarkable increase of 187.23% year-on-year, driven by growth in HEV battery and energy storage sectors [44][45] - Yanghe Co. experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2025, with figures of 14.796 billion and 4.344 billion respectively, reflecting a decrease of 35.32% and 45.34% year-on-year [39][40]

Market Strategy - The market experienced a pullback after a rise, with the liquor sector rebounding [7] - The overall A-share market saw a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% and the ChiNext Index down 0.17% [7][8] - Small and micro-cap stocks outperformed larger stocks, with the North Star 50 Index increasing by 1.27% [7] Economic Insights - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue grew by 0.1% year-on-year, with tax revenue declining by 0.3% [14][15] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 580.3 billion yuan, indicating a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan into the market [18][19] Industry Dynamics - The National Radio and Television Administration encourages the broadcasting of micro-short dramas and the introduction of excellent foreign programs [25] - In July 2025, China's gaming market revenue grew by 4.62% year-on-year, with self-developed games' overseas revenue increasing by 6.76% [27][28] Company Tracking - For Hebang Bio (603077.SH), the methionine business saw explosive growth, with the company achieving a revenue of 3.921 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [29][30] - Xinda Co., Ltd. (603086.SH) reported a revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%, driven by a recovery in the pesticide market [32][33]

Market Strategy - The market continues to rise with increased volume, as the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both break through the high points from October 8, 2024 [4][7] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the total trading volume reaching 2.8 trillion yuan, an increase of over 500 billion yuan from the previous trading day [8][10] Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the mobile game advertising monetization trend in China shows that incentivized videos have become the preferred choice for developers, with platforms like Youmi and Pangle strengthening their positions [25][26] - The banking sector's total assets grew to 467.3 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with large commercial banks seeing a 10.4% growth [28][29] - The New Tibet Railway is expected to start construction this year, with an estimated investment of over 400 billion yuan for the entire project [31][33] Company Tracking - Stone Technology (688169.SH) reported a 39.55% year-on-year decline in net profit for H1 2025, despite a revenue increase of 78.96% to 7.903 billion yuan [37] - Zhongjing Food (300908.SZ) experienced a 2.50% decrease in revenue for H1 2025, while net profit grew by 0.29% to 1.01 billion yuan [39] - Meihua Medical (301363.SZ) achieved a revenue of 733 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 3.73% year-on-year growth, but net profit fell by 32.44% [41] - Ecovacs (603486.SH) reported a 60.84% increase in net profit for H1 2025, reaching 979 million yuan, with total revenue growing by 24.37% [43] - Kasei Bio (688065.SH) saw a 15.68% increase in revenue to 167 million yuan in H1 2025, with net profit rising by 24.74% [45] - Jiangyin Bank (002807.SZ) reported a 10.5% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with net profit growing by 16.6% [47]

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through previous highs, indicating potential upward space for A-shares [4][12] - The overall performance of innovative small and medium enterprises is leading, while blue-chip stocks are lagging behind [6][12] Economic Data - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 6.3% year-on-year, with a monthly growth of 5.7% [7][24] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [24] - The fixed asset investment from January to July increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with private investment declining by 1.5% [24] Industry Dynamics - The widespread application of AI large models has significantly increased computing power demand, leading to a substantial rise in server production [34] - In Q2 2025, smartphone shipments in the Middle East grew by 15% year-on-year, reaching 13.2 million units, driven by consumer demand and economic momentum [35][36] - The high-tech manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in added value from January to July [34] Company Updates - Wei Long Delicious (9985.HK) reported a revenue increase of 18.5% and profit growth of 18.5% in the first half of 2025 [38] - Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) experienced a revenue decline of 0.24% and a profit drop of 4.03% in the first half of 2025 [39] - Huagong Technology (000988.SZ) reported a 124% year-on-year increase in revenue from its connection business, reaching 3.744 billion yuan [41] - Angel Yeast (600298.SH) achieved a revenue growth of 10.10% and a net profit increase of 15.66% in the first half of 2025 [43][45] - Biological Shares (600201.SH) announced that its subsidiary received a new veterinary drug registration certificate, enhancing its market position [46] Regional Economic Dynamics - In Hunan Province, fireworks and firecrackers exports increased by 23.5% in the first seven months of the year, totaling 2.96 billion yuan [51][52]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the previous high from October 8, 2024, which opens up further upward space for the market, with average daily trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan [4][12]. - The market is currently in a "volume and price rising" trend, although the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have not yet surpassed their previous highs, indicating some pressure on the market [4][12]. - Investors are encouraged to actively participate in structural opportunities within the market, focusing on sectors such as AI and robotics, large financial institutions, and the infant and child concept [4][12]. Group 2 - Recent economic data shows that the industrial added value in China increased by 6.3% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a stable production environment [7]. - The social financing scale reached 431.26 trillion yuan by the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, primarily driven by government bonds [8]. - Policies related to personal consumption loans and service industry loans are expected to stimulate demand and support future credit growth [9][10]. Group 3 - The report highlights that the market is likely to continue its upward trend due to a combination of stable economic fundamentals, supportive policies, and ample liquidity [7][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the technical and funding aspects of the market, particularly the performance of the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index [4][12]. - The recent pause in tariff increases between the US and China is seen as a positive development for trade, potentially boosting market risk appetite [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Positive factors for the economy are gradually accumulating, but structural issues remain evident. The full - year economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half, yet the 5% annual target is achievable, and the momentum of high - quality economic development is expected to be further consolidated [6]. - Although the macro - economic data in July did not show an obvious turning point, positive factors are gradually piling up, which is conducive to the improvement of market risk appetite. Different investment suggestions are given for the equity, bond, and commodity markets [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 7 - month Economic Overview - Positive factors for the economy are increasing, including the potential repair of the household balance sheet, high - intensity government spending, increased capital activation, marginal improvement in prices, accelerated transformation of new and old drivers, and the likely passing of the period of greatest tariff disturbances [7]. - Some economic indicators need improvement, such as the continuous drag of the real estate sector, uncertainties in overseas demand, the need to consolidate endogenous economic momentum, and the obvious divergence between volume and price with profit growth yet to improve [8]. 2. Interpretation of 7 - month Economic Sub - item Data - Fixed - asset investment growth continued to decline. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.6% year - on - year, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate development investment showing different trends. High - tech investment remained prosperous [9]. - Consumption growth declined slightly. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous value. The replacement of consumer goods provided some support [10]. - Exports still showed short - term resilience, but uncertainties were increasing. In July, China's export amount increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars. However, the "export - rush" effect may lead to an "overdraft effect" in the second half of the year [11]. - Real estate sales continued to fluctuate at a low level. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing and the completion of real estate development investment both widened. Second - hand housing prices did not stop falling [12]. - The production side remained highly prosperous. In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year in real terms. Manufacturing was the core support, and new and old drivers were accelerating the transformation [13]. - There were marginal improvements in the July price data. The CPI was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing [15][16]. - The structure of social financing remained poor. In July, the incremental social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the core support. The new RMB loans in the social financing caliber decreased, and the effective credit demand of residents and enterprises still needed improvement [17]. - The profit growth of industrial enterprises was significantly dragged down by prices. From January to June, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.8%, contrasting with the 5.3% real GDP growth in the first half of the year [19]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Policy - making will reasonably control the intensity and rhythm of policies and reserve some policy space. The necessity of introducing large - scale incremental policies in the second half of the year has decreased [20]. - The full - year economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to decline at a low level, consumption still has some resilience, and exports need to be vigilant against the impact of tariffs and the "export - overdraft" effect [21]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: Maintain the view that the index will fluctuate strongly, the investment error - tolerance rate will increase, and actively participate in the A - share market. Focus on low - absorption rotation opportunities in high - prosperity sectors, such as the "anti - involution" direction, the Fed rate - cut direction, sectors with expected mid - year report outperformance, and the technology and self - controllable direction [22][23]. - Bond market: The macro - economic fundamentals do not currently support a bond - market reversal. The yield of 10 - year government bonds may fluctuate around 1.7%, waiting for clearer signals from the economic fundamentals and policies [24]. - Commodity market: The prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range shock trend until the economic fundamentals give clear feedback signals [25].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" will alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit", with a greater boost to PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate [5][21]. - The US economy shows signs of weakness, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 75bp in 2025 [5][83]. - China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, but it can achieve the 5% target for the whole year [5]. - The A - share market still has a certain degree of sustainability, and the bond market is likely to fluctuate narrowly, while the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 "Anti - involution": Alleviate the Dilemma of "Increasing Revenue without Increasing Profit" and Improve Market Performance Expectations - **Overview**: "Anti - involution" aims to promote the economy to return from "scale expansion" to "high - quality growth", improve social overall efficiency, and is a key part of building a unified national market [10][11]. - **Approach**: Different from the previous supply - side reform, it focuses on downstream emerging industries, mainly private enterprises, with more moderate and gradual policies using market - based and legal means [18][19]. - **Impact**: It is expected to have a greater impact on PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate, but there is uncertainty in the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [21][24]. - **Style**: From April to September, the market pays more attention to performance, and the "anti - involution" direction has performance release expectations [28]. - **Law**: It may be a key factor supporting the strength of the A - share market, and the current "anti - involution" market is in the policy - expectation stage [32][36]. - **Summary**: It can alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" and improve market performance expectations [46]. 2 Global: The US Economy Shows Signs of Weakness, and the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation is Rising - **Overseas Tariffs**: The US average effective tariff rate has reached the highest level since 1933, reducing global economic growth potential, and tariffs remain a key variable affecting China's exports [49]. - **Overseas Economy**: The global economy has short - term resilience, but the US economy shows signs of weakness in investment, and the Fed has lowered its economic growth forecast [55][60][66]. - **Overseas Inflation**: The short - term impact of tariffs on US inflation is emerging, and the medium - term inflation trend still faces great uncertainty [69][73]. - **Overseas Liquidity**: The inflection point of non - farm data may have arrived, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected 75bp rate cut in 2025 [77][83]. - **Summary**: The global economy has short - term resilience but increasing uncertainty, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising [83]. 3 China: The Economic Growth Rate May be High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half, and the Spontaneous Recovery Momentum Needs to be Consolidated - **Economic Overview**: China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the GDP growth rate in Q3 and Q4 expected to decline compared with Q1 and Q2 [84]. - **Investment End**: The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continues to bottom out, and real estate investment is still the main drag [85]. - **Consumption End**: Consumption data still has resilience, and service consumption may be the key area of development [27]. - **Export End**: Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs and export over - draw effects [5][28]. - **Liquidity**: The government sector is still the main force for increasing leverage, and the time for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is expected to be postponed [28]. - **Summary**: The annual economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half [29]. 4 Market Strategy: Positive Factors are Gradually Accumulating to Strengthen the Foundation for the A - share Market to Improve - **General Trend Judgment**: The subsequent market is expected to have a certain degree of sustainability [30]. - **Policy Trends**: The economic policy in the second half of the year is expected to maintain its stance and act appropriately [32]. - **Allocation Framework**: Gradually increase the allocation of stock assets [33]. - **Investment Advice**: The equity index will run strongly, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly, and the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5][33].