证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|商贸零售 9 月社零同比+3.2%，高于市场预期 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月19日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国家统计局发布社零数据，9 月份，社零总额为 4.11 万亿元，同比增长 3.2%。其中，除汽车 以外的消费品零售额为 3.66 万亿元，同比增长 3.6%；限额以上单位消费品零售额 1.69 万亿 元，同比增长 2.6%。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522060001 邓文慧 郭家玮 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent real estate policies are expected to stabilize the market and boost demand in the home furnishing sector, particularly benefiting leading companies with low valuations and stable operations [10][12] - The government announced a package of policies summarized as "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases," which includes the implementation of 1 million urban village renovations and dilapidated housing renovations, potentially amounting to a policy scale of approximately 1 trillion yuan [10][11] - The "guarantee delivery" initiative is progressing, with 2.46 million units delivered, and the credit scale for "whitelist" projects expected to increase to 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, which will directly improve real estate completion data and increase orders for home furnishing companies [11][12] Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The recent policies aim to promote a stable recovery in the real estate market, including measures such as lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting purchase restrictions, which are expected to drive home furnishing demand [12] - The "old-for-new" program is also being implemented, with subsidies ranging from 15% to 20%, which could significantly stimulate home furnishing consumption [12] Investment Opportunities - Focus on leading home furnishing companies that are likely to benefit from the stockpiling of existing homes and urban village renovation policies, including traditional leaders like Sophia in custom home furnishing and companies like Gujia Home, Mousse, and Minhua Holdings in soft furnishings [13] - Smart home products are also highlighted as having growth potential due to their relevance in existing home renovations and relatively low penetration rates [13]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to benefit the home furnishing sector, which is a post-cycle industry of real estate. The report suggests focusing on leading companies with low valuations and stable operations [10][12][13]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The government announced a series of measures summarized as "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases." The two increases include the implementation of 1 million urban village renovations and dilapidated housing renovations, with an estimated policy scale of approximately 1 trillion yuan [10][11]. - The "保交房" (guarantee delivery of houses) initiative has successfully delivered 2.46 million units, with expectations to increase the credit scale for "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, which is anticipated to improve construction data and boost orders for home furnishing companies [11][12]. Market Recovery - A series of real estate policies have been introduced since September 24 to promote market stabilization, including lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting purchase restrictions. The "以旧换新" (trade-in) program is expected to significantly stimulate home furnishing demand, with subsidies ranging from 15% to 20% [12][13]. - Leading companies in the home furnishing sector are currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 12X, with five-year percentiles below 10%. The combination of supportive real estate policies and trade-in incentives is likely to lead to a recovery in fundamentals and valuation for home furnishing companies [12][13]. Investment Focus - The report recommends focusing on home furnishing leaders that will benefit from the stockpiling of existing homes and urban village renovation policies, including traditional leaders like Sofitel, and companies in the soft furnishings and smart home sectors such as Gujia Home, Mousse Holdings, and Arrow Home [13].

Investment Rating - The report recommends actively participating in the IPO subscription of Keli Co Ltd, citing favorable factors such as a low threshold for full subscription, no existing shares in circulation, and an approximate 75% discount on the initial valuation [2][24] Core Views - Keli Co Ltd is a comprehensive oilfield technical service provider with a strong presence in Xinjiang and expanding overseas operations [2][6] - The company has achieved domestic leading levels in core technologies and is actively developing energy-saving and environmentally friendly products [2][6] - With regional advantages and ongoing market-oriented reforms, the company is expected to increase its market share [2][6] Company Overview - Keli Co Ltd is a technology-driven, comprehensive oilfield technical service enterprise, offering a wide range of services including crude oil dehydration, oilfield water treatment, and oilfield equipment upgrades [6][10] - The company has formed three major business segments: oilfield technical services, oilfield specialty chemicals, and oilfield specialty equipment [6][10] - In 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 155 million yuan, with a CAGR of 4% from 2021 to 2023, and a net profit of 24 million yuan, with a CAGR of 21% over the same period [10] - The company's gross margin in 2024H1 was 36%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points from 2023H1, and the net margin was 14.8%, up 1.5 percentage points [10] Market and Competitive Landscape - The oilfield service industry in China is characterized by regional competition, with state-owned oilfield service companies dominating their respective regions [6][14] - The industry is transitioning towards high-tech and comprehensive services, with increasing demand for complex and deepwater oil and gas extraction [14][15] - Keli Co Ltd benefits from its location in Xinjiang, which is strategically important for China's westward opening strategy and has significant oil and gas resources [6][15] IPO Details - The IPO price is set at 7.32 yuan per share, with an initial issuance of 21 million shares, accounting for 24.73% of the post-issuance total shares [16][17] - The post-issuance market capitalization is expected to be 622 million yuan, with a P/E (TTM) of 10.63 times, significantly lower than the median P/E of comparable companies at 42.51 times [16][17] - The strategic placement is dominated by private equity funds, with a lock-up period of 6 months [18][20] Comparable Companies - Keli Co Ltd is compared with companies like Zhongke Runjin, Jereh, and HBP, with Keli showing strong profitability and a focus on oilfield technical services [21][22][23] - In 2024H1, Keli Co Ltd's revenue was 154.94 million yuan, with a net profit of 24.17 million yuan, and a gross margin of 36.02% [17][22]

证券研究报告 北交所投资策略|新股申购 综合型油服优质企业——北交所新股申 购策略之十 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月18日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 科力股份深耕油田工程技术服务领域，业务版图实现新疆全覆盖并向海外扩张，核心技术水 平达到国内领先，并积极开发节能环保产品。在区域优势和市场化改革方面齐发力，公司市场 占有率有望提升。综合公司新股首发基本要素（顶格申购门槛较低，无老股流通，首发估值折 价约 75%），建议积极参与。 |分析师及联系人 刘建伟 SAC：S0590524050005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 11 略之十 北交所投资策略|新股申购 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月18日 科力股份 综合型油服优质企业——北交所新股申购策 市场表现 -30% -3% 23% 50% 2023/102024/1 2024/4 2024/72024/10 北证50 相关报告 1、《北证 50 筑底反弹，关注低估值绩优股》 2024.09.25 2、《国内非煤矿服优质供应商——北交所新 股申购策略之九》2024.09.16 扫码查看更多 投资 ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to implement 1 million sets of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations through monetary compensation, estimating a total scale of approximately 1 trillion yuan for the renovation [4][12] - The "guarantee delivery" campaign has successfully delivered 2.46 million units, with a target of increasing the credit scale of "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [4][12] - The Ministry of Finance supports local governments in using special bonds to acquire land and provides refinancing support in collaboration with the central bank, aiming to help local governments digest existing housing and land [4][12] Summary by Sections Urban Village Renovation - The core policy involves the addition of 1 million sets of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with a potential renovation scale of 1 trillion yuan if concentrated in 35 major cities [12] - There are 170,000 sets of urban villages and 50,000 sets of dilapidated housing needing renovation across the country [12] - The policy supports major cities and allows local governments to issue special bonds and receive tax benefits [13] Guarantee Delivery (Financing Coordination Mechanism) - The "guarantee delivery" campaign has delivered 2.46 million units, with plans to expand the credit scale of "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan by year-end [12][13] - The focus is on ensuring project financing and timely delivery of housing [13] Affordable Housing - As of September, 1.48 million sets of affordable housing have been constructed, with a target of 450,000 people moving into affordable housing by year-end [13] - The Ministry of Finance allows local governments to use special bonds to acquire existing housing for affordable housing purposes [13] Land Acquisition - The financial regulatory authority permits banks to issue loans for the acquisition of idle land, aiming to improve cash flow in the real estate sector [13] - The central bank will provide necessary refinancing support for these acquisitions [13]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|非银金融 中国财险 COR 与自然灾害的相关性解析 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月16日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2021-2023 年间，中国财险单季度的股价表现与业绩呈现较强的正相关性。受自然灾害分布影 响，中国财险的承保利润（即 COR）呈现"Q1 及 Q2 表现更好，Q3 及 Q4 表现相对较弱"的季 节性波动，这使得公司的股价表现也呈现"高开回落"态势。但 2024 年以来，中国财险的承 保利润与自然灾害造成的直接经济损失的相关性有所减弱，主因公司持续落实风险减量服务 使得大灾对公司的影响有所降低。后续随着公司持续践行"保险+风险减量服务+科技"的新商 业模式，公司的 COR 有望延续向好态势，从而能对业绩和估值形成有力支撑。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月16日 非银金融 中国财险 COR 与自然灾害的相关性解析 投资建议： ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for stock performance relative to market indices [34]. Core Insights - The correlation between the underwriting profit (COR) of the company and natural disaster-related economic losses has weakened in 2024, primarily due to the implementation of risk reduction services [4][13][29]. - The company's underwriting profit exhibits seasonal fluctuations, with better performance in Q1 and Q2 compared to Q3 and Q4, which also affects stock price movements [11][19][21]. - The company's business model, which integrates insurance with risk reduction services and technology, is expected to support continued improvement in COR and overall performance [14][30][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Correlation Between Stock Performance and Underwriting Profit - The stock price of the company has shown a strong positive correlation with its performance metrics from 2021 to 2023, with seasonal trends indicating higher stock price increases in the first three quarters of the year [11][19]. - The company's net profit has also demonstrated seasonal characteristics, impacting stock price movements [17][21]. 2. Impact of Natural Disasters on COR - Natural disasters are identified as a primary factor affecting the company's COR and underwriting profit, with a strong correlation observed between direct economic losses from disasters and the company's performance metrics from 2010 to 2023 [12][22][23]. - The report highlights that increased natural disaster losses negatively impact the company's COR and claims ratio [12][25]. 3. Risk Reduction Services and Efficiency Improvement - The implementation of risk reduction services has been effective in mitigating the impact of natural disasters on the company's financial performance, leading to improved COR despite increased disaster-related losses in 2024 [13][27][29]. - The company has introduced innovative platforms and services aimed at enhancing risk management and reducing claims costs, contributing to long-term competitive advantages [28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that performance improvement is the core driver for the company's valuation recovery, with expectations of a 12% return on equity (ROE) in 2024 [14][30]. - The company's unique business model, characterized by negative liability costs and effective risk management, positions it favorably in a declining interest rate environment [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the food and beverage industry [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued weak recovery in the restaurant sector, with household demand showing resilience and differentiation between high-tier and low-tier cities. High-tier cities face some pressure, while low-tier cities demonstrate strong resilience. Recent consumption stimulus policies are expected to improve demand elasticity in the restaurant sector [10][12]. - The report anticipates a gradual stabilization of demand in high-tier cities due to lower loan rates and improved consumer expectations, while low-tier cities are expected to maintain robust consumption demand [10][25]. - The cost advantages for consumer goods companies are expected to further release in Q3 2024, as most raw material prices continue to decline, alleviating cost pressures for companies [27]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Trends - Restaurant demand remains weak, with compound growth rates for restaurant revenues in July and August 2024 at 3.63% and 2.25% compared to 2019, respectively [10][16]. - Household demand shows differentiation, with high-tier cities under pressure and low-tier cities exhibiting strong resilience. Rural retail sales growth rates in July and August were 4.6% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively [21][23]. 2. Performance of Consumer Goods - The performance of consumer goods companies is expected to show further differentiation in Q3 2024. The restaurant supply chain is anticipated to recover with the implementation of stimulus policies, particularly in the condiment and frozen food sectors [11][12]. - The dairy industry faces ongoing pressure, but demand is expected to recover with the resurgence of gifting scenarios and stabilization of raw milk prices [11][12]. - The snack food sector is expected to benefit from new channels and product categories, with companies like Salted Fish Shop continuing to see growth [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality consumer goods leaders that are likely to benefit from improving demand and cost advantages. Recommended stocks include Hai Tian Flavoring and Food, Tian Wei Food, and Yihai International in the restaurant supply chain, as well as Yili and Mengniu in the dairy sector [11][12][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, citing its strong position in the ICT sector and its alignment with AI development trends [1][3][4] Core Business and Market Position - The company is a leading domestic ICT manufacturer, focusing on network equipment, network security, and cloud desktop solutions [1][4] - It is one of the few domestic companies with the capability to develop high-end data center switches, having delivered 200G/400G switches to major internet companies [1][4] - The company has over 20,000 channel partners and operates in more than 80 countries and regions [4][16] AI and High-Speed Ethernet Switches - AI development is driving demand for high-speed Ethernet switches, with 400G and 800G switches expected to dominate the market [4][7] - The company is actively developing high-speed Ethernet switches, including 200G/400G data center switches, and has collaborated with leading internet companies on white-box switches [4][7] - The global AI backend network is expected to see increased adoption of 400G+ switches, with 800G switches becoming mainstream by 2025 [4][7] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 12.245 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.087 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.41% [4][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 423 million yuan in 2024 to 637 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.41% [4][9] - The company's EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.74 yuan in 2024 to 1.12 yuan in 2026 [4][9] Market Trends and Industry Outlook - The global switch market is projected to grow from 39.506 billion USD in 2023 to 41.644 billion USD in 2024, driven by digital transformation and AI trends [30] - The domestic switch market is expected to grow from 68.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 74.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.34% [30] - Cloud computing investments are increasing globally, with the market expected to surpass 1 trillion USD by 2026, driving demand for switches [32][34] Competitive Landscape - The company ranks third in the domestic Ethernet switch market and third in the data center switch market [68] - It has a strong presence in the internet sector, with its market share in Ethernet switches for the internet industry growing from 10.72% in 2018 to 29.45% in 2022 [63] - The company has secured significant contracts with major operators, including China Mobile and China Telecom, for switch procurement [65][66] Technological Innovation - The company has developed AI-Fabric network solutions, supporting up to 32,768 400G ports for large-scale GPU clusters [60] - It has pioneered NPO and CPO switch technologies, reducing power consumption by over 50% compared to traditional pluggable solutions [60][61] - The company is a leader in Ethernet all-optical network solutions, targeting education, healthcare, and industrial applications [61] Customer and Market Strategy - The company employs a hybrid sales model, with 61.39% of revenue from distribution channels and 38.61% from direct sales to large clients like operators and internet giants [62][63] - It has a strong service network, with over 100 domestic service centers and dozens of overseas service points [63] - The company has consistently won bids for switch procurement from major operators, including China Mobile and China Telecom [65][66]