Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.7% to 3.92 billion yuan [10] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.76 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 52.4% [10] - Sales in the Hainan market are under pressure, with declines in passenger throughput, shopping conversion rates, and average spending per customer [10] - The duty-free shopping amount in Hainan for July-August 2024 was 3.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.3% year-on-year, with the number of shoppers down 20.7% [10] - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 58.19 billion yuan, 64.93 billion yuan, and 71.87 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 5.05 billion yuan, 5.99 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 43.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.92 billion yuan, down 24.7% [10] - Q3 2024 results showed a revenue of 11.76 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, down 52.4% [10] Market Analysis - The Hainan duty-free market is experiencing significant sales pressure, with a decline in key metrics such as passenger throughput and average spending [10] - The average shopping amount during the National Day holiday in 2024 was 110 million yuan per day, a decrease of 32.5% year-on-year [10] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 58.19 billion yuan, 64.93 billion yuan, and 71.87 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 5.05 billion yuan, 5.99 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report analyzes the complete layout of the company's metal assets from the perspective of new energy metals, highlighting its operations in world-class copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, its stake in the Huayue nickel-cobalt project, and its partnership with CATL to develop lithium salt lakes in Bolivia, establishing it as a leading global producer of new energy metals [3][11][13]. Summary by Sections Lithium - The company is advancing into Bolivia to develop world-class salt lake resources, with an initial investment of $1 billion planned to build two processing plants with a combined capacity of 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [11][13]. Nickel - The company holds a 30% stake in the Huayue nickel-cobalt project, which has an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of nickel and 7,800 tons of cobalt. The investment income from this project significantly increased from 726 million yuan in 2022 to 2.483 billion yuan in 2023 [11][14]. Copper and Cobalt - The company operates two major copper-cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with TFM mine achieving an annual production capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, while KFM mine is expected to maintain high production levels with an annual capacity of 150,000 tons of copper and 50,000 tons of cobalt [11][15]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 12.087 billion yuan, 13.402 billion yuan, and 15.774 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 46.51%, 10.88%, and 17.70%. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.3, 12.9, and 11.0 for the same years [11][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [6][31] Core Views - The acquisition of a high-quality gold mine is expected to enhance resource reserves and production capacity, positioning the company for significant growth in gold output [10][21] - The company is projected to achieve substantial increases in net profit and earnings per share (EPS) from 2024 to 2026, with net profits estimated at 31.898 billion, 38.050 billion, and 44.707 billion yuan respectively, and EPS at 1.20, 1.43, and 1.68 yuan [3][31] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Zijin Mining's wholly-owned subsidiary, Jinyuan International, plans to acquire 100% of Newmont Golden Ridge for approximately 1 billion USD (about 70.71 billion yuan), which holds the Akyem gold mine in Ghana [10][12] - The acquisition price corresponds to a 2023 PE ratio of about 7.81, indicating a reasonable valuation [10][12] Resource and Production Potential - The Akyem gold mine has proven gold resources of 54.4 tons and additional potential resources of 83 tons, which could be upgraded through further exploration [10][21] - The acquisition is expected to increase the company's gold production by approximately 10 tons annually, contributing to the goal of exceeding 100 tons of gold production by 2028 [21][31] Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 337.142 billion, 361.470 billion, and 378.865 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026, respectively [11][31] - The report forecasts a strong increase in EBITDA and net profit margins, reflecting the company's robust operational capabilities and market positioning [11][31]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|家用电器 2024 年三季报前瞻：经营稳健，提速 可期 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月15日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 三季度家电板块整体稳健运行，在以旧换新政策带动下，Q4 内销或迎换挡时刻；中央总量/地 产政策力度空前，需求端财政政策定调积极，业绩估值有望双击。持续推荐：一是受益以旧换 新、份额企稳回升、高质量高股息的白电龙头，推荐美的集团、格力电器、海尔智家、海信家 电；二是基本面触底，受益总量地产宽松的后周期标的，推荐华帝股份、老板电器；三是产品 竞争力领先的两轮车、扫地机龙头，推荐雅迪控股，关注科沃斯、石头科技等标的。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 孙珊 崔甜甜 莫云皓 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523110009 SAC：S0590523120001 蔡奕娴 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 16 行业研究|行业专题研究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|食品饮料 24Q3 酒类前瞻：白酒集中度提升，啤 酒成本红利延续 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月15日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 白酒行业驱动由需求端逐步向供给端倾斜，展望未来需求增速放缓，集中度仍有较大提升空 间。当前综合考虑股息率+业绩增速，板块估值安全边际高。随着分母端驱动强化，行业估值 有望逐步筑底。优选估值具备性价比、Q3 业绩稳健的标的，首推品牌壁垒高的贵州茅台、五 粮液，其次推荐山西汾酒、泸州老窖、老白干酒、迎驾贡酒、古井贡酒、今世缘等，建议关注 舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、金种子。啤酒 Q4 基数进一步走低，行业量价有望修复，成本红利进一步 体现，推荐低估值龙头青岛啤酒、华润啤酒以及改革预期的燕京啤酒，建议关注重庆啤酒。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 15 行业研究|行业专题研究 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported resilient growth in new signed contracts for its construction business in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total of 2,987.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8%. However, there was a slight decline in new contracts in September, down 3% year-on-year [10][11] - The real estate sales continue to face pressure, with a total contract sales amount of 260.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 22% year-on-year. The sales area also decreased by 29% year-on-year [10][11] - The company maintains a strong land acquisition strategy, with a new land reserve of 4.96 million square meters, up 13% year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in total land reserves compared to the end of 2023 [10][11] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the new signed contracts for construction business were 2,987.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8%. The breakdown for the first nine months includes 2,001.1 billion yuan for housing construction, 976.3 billion yuan for infrastructure, and 10 billion yuan for survey and design, with respective year-on-year changes of +1%, +26%, and -3% [10][11] - For September alone, the new signed contracts were 369.1 billion yuan, with housing construction and infrastructure contracts down 4% and 3% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] Financial Forecast - The company expects revenue growth for 2024-2026 to be 2,433.9 billion yuan, 2,621.1 billion yuan, and 2,815.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 8%, and 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 59.1 billion yuan, 64.2 billion yuan, and 68.9 billion yuan for the same period, with respective growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 7% [10][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.42 yuan, 1.54 yuan, and 1.66 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% [10][11] Valuation - The current price corresponds to a 2024E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.5x and a dividend yield of 4.6%, indicating a favorable valuation [10][11]

Export Data Analysis - In September, China's export growth rate was 2.4% year-on-year, a significant drop from 8.7% in August and below the consensus forecast of 5.9%[5] - Seasonally adjusted, September exports decreased by 3.7% month-on-month, contrasting with a previous increase of 2.4%[12] - Exports of most products, except for high-tech products and automobiles, declined compared to the previous month, with raw materials, agricultural products, and mechanical and electrical products seeing decreases of 3.7%, 1.6%, and 4.4% respectively[6] Import Data Analysis - September's import growth rate was 0.3% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month's growth of 0.5%[25] - Seasonally adjusted, imports were nearly flat month-on-month, with a slight decrease of 0.1%[25] - Agricultural product imports increased by 3.0% month-on-month, while imports of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products fell by 2.2% and 0.8% respectively[29] Future Outlook - Multiple factors, including weakened external demand and high overseas inventory levels, suggest that exports may face further pressure in the fourth quarter[8] - The Chinese economy is expected to recover, with GDP growth projected to exceed 1.2%-1.3% quarter-on-quarter, potentially boosting imports[36] - Risks include unexpected downturns in overseas economies, policy inconsistencies, and geopolitical tensions that could adversely affect export performance[48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2024, with expected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 450 to 475 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.26% to 59.67% [2][7] - The growth is primarily driven by the automotive electronics and precision die-casting segments, with significant sales increases in various products [7] - The company is expanding its product offerings and customer base, indicating a potential rapid growth phase ahead [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 450-475 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.26%-59.67% [7] - The expected net profit for Q3 alone is projected to be between 163 to 188 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 40.86%-62.45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.74%-30.03% [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 92.27 billion yuan, 114.95 billion yuan, and 143.05 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.28%, 24.59%, and 24.44% [7][8] Product and Market Expansion - The company has seen an increase in new vehicle models equipped with its products, with several new models launched recently [7] - New projects have been secured with major clients such as Stellantis, SAIC Audi, and BYD, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [7] Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 653 million yuan, 890 million yuan, and 1.14 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 40.52%, 36.24%, and 28.12% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.24 yuan, 1.70 yuan, and 2.17 yuan for the same years, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.86% over three years [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][12] Core Insights - The company reported a premium income of 46.179 billion yuan in September 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with auto insurance growing by 5.3% and non-auto insurance by 8.9% [4][11] - The growth in auto insurance is attributed to an increase in new car sales and average premiums, with expectations for steady growth driven by policies promoting vehicle upgrades [11][12] - Non-auto insurance continues to show positive growth, particularly in health insurance and credit guarantee insurance, with a forecast for continued growth in the coming year [11][12] Summary by Sections Premium Income - In September 2024, the company achieved a premium income of 46.179 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, with auto insurance at 26.955 billion yuan (+5.3%) and non-auto insurance at 19.224 billion yuan (+8.9%) [4][11] Auto Insurance - The auto insurance premium growth is primarily due to an increase in new car sales and average premiums, with a notable improvement in growth rate from August (4.4%) to September (5.3%) [11] - The company expects the combined ratio (COR) for auto insurance to improve to below 97% in 2024 due to enhanced risk management and regulatory support [11][12] Non-Auto Insurance - Non-auto insurance premiums grew by 8.9% in September, driven by health insurance (+18.3%) and credit guarantee insurance (+15.8%) [11] - The company anticipates continued growth in non-auto insurance premiums, supported by economic recovery and favorable policies [11][12] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 28.121 billion yuan, 30.728 billion yuan, and 34.063 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 14%, 9%, and 11% [12][13]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - Recent fiscal policies are expected to stimulate demand in the large chemical industry, leading to a recovery in industry valuation and fundamentals [11][34] - The petrochemical sector's profitability and valuation are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as fiscal policies are implemented [34] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Demand Affected by Fiscal Policies - Historical fiscal expansion policies have positively impacted chemical demand through both upstream and downstream channels [14] - Upstream transmission stimulates demand for chemical raw materials related to real estate and infrastructure, while downstream transmission boosts demand for consumer-related chemicals [14] 2. Fiscal Policies Expected to Further Boost Chemical Demand 2.1 Basic Chemicals: Demand Faces Support, Awaiting Policy Action - CPI and PPI are still at low levels, with basic chemical industry capital expenditure growth turning negative [18][25] - The real estate sector remains weak, but demand from home appliances and automobiles is relatively strong [20] - Economic recovery is expected to improve demand in the basic chemical sector as fiscal policies take effect [29] 2.2 Petrochemicals: Policy Implementation Expected to Boost Profitability and Valuation Recovery - The petrochemical sector's revenue decreased by 2.40% in 2023, but is projected to grow by 2.54% in the first half of 2024 [34] - The sector's net profit is expected to increase by 11.07% in 2024H1, indicating a gradual recovery [34] 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Cyclical Quality Assets 3.1 Cyclical Quality Assets - Recommended to focus on leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua [44] 3.2 Assets Benefiting from Consumption Boost - Suggested to pay attention to leading companies in polyester filament and agricultural chemicals, as well as firms in the fertilizer sector [45] 3.3 Real Estate Cycle Assets - Recommended to focus on cyclical products related to real estate, such as MDI and soda ash, as well as companies with significant cost advantages [46]