股 票 研 究 ——丸美股份 2024 年三季报点评 业绩超预期，大单品放量带动毛销差改善 丸美股份(603983) 家庭及个人用品 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-------------------|----------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 杨柳 ( 分析师 ) | 闫清徽 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38038323 | 021-38031651 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yangliu@gtjas.com | yanqinghui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880521120001 | S0880522120004 | | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][2] Core Views - The earnings forecast has been lowered, but the target price remains unchanged at 152.21 CNY, with a "Buy" rating maintained. The company's performance in Q3 was below expectations due to foreign exchange impacts, but profitability remains stable. The demand for 1.6T is expected to increase starting Q4 [3][2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.394 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 98.55%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 977 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 122.39%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 839 million CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.76%, while profit decreased by 14.25% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The gross margin for Q3 was 59.04%, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of approximately 0.73 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell significantly by 7.17 percentage points to 38.41% [3][4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.241 billion CNY, 2.497 billion CNY, and 3.243 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.24 CNY, 4.51 CNY, and 5.85 CNY [3][10] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the industry outlook remains positive, with expectations for increased demand for 1.6T products. The market is optimistic about the continued shipments of Nvidia's H100 in Q3/Q4, and the new AI chips are expected to drive demand for 800G/1.6T products [3][2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The upcoming U.S. election is expected to influence market dynamics, with rising support for Trump leading to increased inflation expectations and volatility in metal prices [3][6] - Recent economic data from the U.S. has been better than expected, contributing to a favorable outlook for industrial metals, particularly in the context of domestic policy changes in China [3][6] - Precious metals are anticipated to experience increased price fluctuations as the election approaches, with potential for a soft landing in the U.S. economy impacting gold prices [3][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Polls indicate Trump's support has surpassed Harris, with a 64% chance of winning as of October 23 [3][6] - The market is reacting to inflation expectations, with simultaneous increases in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin [3][6] - Domestic fiscal data shows a positive turnaround, with September revenue and expenditure growth turning positive for the first time this year [3][6] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW non-ferrous metals index rose by 4.89% this week, ranking 20th among sectors [10] - Key stocks recommended include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with others like Western Mining and China Aluminum also highlighted [3][6] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1. Industrial Metals - Copper prices on SHFE are at 76,390 CNY/ton, down 0.77% weekly, while aluminum is at 20,760 CNY/ton, up 0.58% [12][13] - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum show fluctuations, with copper social inventory at 163,100 tons [28][30] 3.2. Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased, with SHFE gold at 624.72 CNY/gram and COMEX gold at 2,760.80 USD/ounce [14][15] - Silver prices also rose, with SHFE silver at 8,410 CNY/kilogram and COMEX silver at 33.88 USD/ounce [14][15] 4. Macro Data Tracking - U.S. economic indicators show a CPI increase of 2.40% in September, while China's industrial value added rose by 5.4% year-on-year [16][18] - The Federal Reserve's target rate is currently at 5.0%, with inflation expectations influencing market dynamics [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The newly released "Management Measures for the Issuance of Income Certificates by Securities Companies" aims to strengthen risk prevention and protect investor interests, enhancing investor confidence in income certificate products and providing greater growth potential for quality securities firms [2][3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Context - On October 25, the China Securities Association published the "Management Measures" to fill the regulatory gap in the income certificate business of securities firms, prevent financial risks, and protect investors' legal rights. As of July 2023, the outstanding scale of income certificates issued by securities firms reached 429.921 billion, with 18,322 products, making them a significant tool for asset allocation and short-term financing for securities firms [3]. Risk Prevention Measures - The measures include tiered management of the outstanding balance of income certificates based on the classification results of securities firms, with limits set at 60%, 50%, and 40% of net capital for categories A, B, and C respectively. Securities firms are required to incorporate income certificates into their overall risk management framework and enhance liquidity risk control [3]. Investor Protection - The report emphasizes investor protection by limiting losses, defining the scope of investors, and regulating sales behavior. It specifies that the loss amount from floating income certificates should not exceed the fixed income amount, and only professional investors as defined by the "Measures for the Appropriateness of Securities and Futures Investors" can invest in these products [3]. Growth Potential for Quality Firms - The introduction of these measures is expected to enhance risk prevention and investor protection, thereby increasing investor confidence in structured products. Quality securities firms are anticipated to experience significant growth in business scale, with head firms having room for improvement in income certificate scale compared to limits [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in quality leading securities firms that will benefit from improved liquidity, specifically mentioning Citic Securities and China Galaxy. As of October 25, the PB ratio of the securities sector accounted for 97% of the overall market PB ratio, indicating potential for growth compared to historical highs [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The current policy negotiation phase favors a balanced approach towards index dividend leaders, with a focus on coking coal as a potential area for investment in 2025 [2]. - The coal sector is advised to concentrate on core dividend leaders and capitalize on cyclical elasticity, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy [4][3]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in fund holdings in the coal sector, returning to historical averages, with a shift towards long-term dividend investment strategies [4]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of October 25, 2024, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 865 CNY/ton, up 16 CNY/ton (1.9%) from the previous week [7]. - The inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased to 5.76 million tons, a rise of 240,000 tons (4.3%) [16]. - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 thermal coal at Northern Ports is 699 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2 CNY/ton (0.3%) [20]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,760 CNY/ton, down 150 CNY/ton (-7.9%) from the previous week [22]. - The average price of metallurgical coke at major domestic ports is 1,926 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton (-2.5%) [32]. - The cost of Australian coking coal is 213 USD/ton, down 7 USD/ton (-3.0%) [28]. Market Overview - The report notes a decline in fund holdings in the coal sector, with the top ten coal stocks' market value share dropping from 0.59% in Q2 to 0.40% [4]. - The overall supply-demand balance in the coal industry is stabilizing, leading to clearer future profitability and predictability [4]. - The report anticipates that thermal coal prices may exceed the previous high of 880 CNY/ton by the end of Q4, driven by seasonal demand increases [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 slightly exceeded expectations, driven by stable phosphate ore prices and a recovery in glyphosate prices, along with strong performance in the specialty chemicals segment [2]. - The report forecasts that the phosphate chemical industry will remain strong, and the silicon chemical sector is expected to recover in Q4 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.63, 2.01, and 2.25 yuan respectively, with a target price maintained at 24.34 yuan [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 22.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.314 billion yuan, up 37.85% year-on-year [2]. - For Q3 alone, revenue was 8.646 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.54% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 509 million yuan, marking a 52.73% year-on-year increase and a 20.26% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 18.86%, significantly up by 6.25 percentage points year-on-year, although it slightly decreased by 1.62 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Market Outlook - The phosphate fertilizer market is expected to enter a winter storage demand peak in Q4, while phosphate ore supply is anticipated to decrease as it enters a rest period [2]. - Glyphosate prices are expected to rise due to declining inventory levels in domestic factories since August, with a potential recovery in North American purchasing in Q4 [2]. - The silicon industry is projected to see a reduction in supply during the traditional dry season, with improving fundamentals in the photovoltaic sector likely to boost sentiment in the silicon supply chain [2].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——开立医疗 2024Q3 业绩点评 [table_Authors] 丁丹(分析师) 张拓(分析师) 0755-23976735 dingdan@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880514030001 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | 0755-23976170 | | | zhangtuo024925@gtjas.com | | | S0880523090003 | | 本报告导读： 国内招标放缓导致收入承压，低谷期加大人员投入导致出现亏损，预计随招标恢复， 业绩有望逐季改善，维持增持评级。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持增持评级。2024Q3 公司实现收入 3.86 亿元（-9.2%），归母净利 润-0.62 亿元，扣非归母净利润-0.69 亿元，业绩略低于预期。考虑招 标放缓及费用投入增加，下调2024-2026 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 61.35 CNY [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance and full-year profit guidance are in line with expectations, benefiting from a deep layout in AI terminals led by Apple. Additionally, the automotive and communication businesses are accelerating growth, creating a new growth curve [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 73.579 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.679 billion CNY, up 21.88% year-on-year and 25.76% quarter-on-quarter, falling within the mid-range of previous guidance [3]. - The company expects a full-year net profit for 2024 to be between 13.143 billion CNY and 13.691 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 25% [3]. Business Growth Drivers - The company is deeply integrated with major clients across all product categories, benefiting from the AI terminal wave led by Apple. The introduction of system-level AI products, including AI smartphones and wearable devices, is expected to drive significant sales growth [3]. - The automotive and communication sectors are experiencing accelerated growth. The company is focusing on smart vehicle clients and expanding its product offerings in intelligent cockpits and autonomous driving, which are expected to sustain high growth rates [3]. Financial Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.90 CNY, 2.39 CNY, and 2.95 CNY respectively. The target price corresponds to a 2025 PE ratio of 25.67X, based on comparable company valuations [3][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 306.217 billion CNY, 372.699 billion CNY, and 458.743 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a growth rate of 32.0%, 21.7%, and 23.1% [9]. Market Data - The company's current stock price is 43.35 CNY, with a market capitalization of 313.256 billion CNY. The stock has traded within a range of 25.49 CNY to 46.33 CNY over the past 52 weeks [4][5]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 8.95 CNY and a current price-to-book ratio of 4.8 [5]. Comparative Valuation - The report references comparable companies with an average 2025 PE ratio of 21.66X, indicating that the company is positioned favorably within its industry [10].

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——苏试试验 2024 年三季报点评 2024Q3 业绩短期波动，订单有望稳步增长 苏试试验(300416) [Table_Industry] 资本货物/工业 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 肖群稀 ( 分析师 ) | 张越 ( 分析师 ) | | | 0755-23976830 | 0755-23976385 | | | xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com | zhangyue025639@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120001 | S0880522090004 | 本报告导读： 公司 2024 年三季报业绩符合预期，环境可靠性试验设备与服务订单有望保持良好增 长，集成电路检测快速发展，随着产能逐步爬坡盈利能力有望提升。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.27 | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.61 CNY, down from the previous target of 46.99 CNY [5] Core Views - The company, as a leading wind power bearing manufacturer, is expected to benefit from the high demand for wind power installations during the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2025) [2][3] - The company's performance is expected to improve significantly in 2025, driven by increased demand for wind power installations and potential price increases for its products [3] - The company's overseas expansion strategy, in collaboration with wind turbine manufacturers, is expected to support long-term growth [3] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 2,653 million CNY in 2022 to 3,816 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 316 million CNY in 2022 to 442 million CNY in 2026, despite a significant drop in 2024 due to non-recurring losses [2] - EPS is expected to rebound from 0.00 CNY in 2024 to 1.23 CNY in 2026 [2] Industry Outlook - Domestic wind power installations are expected to increase significantly in 2025, driven by the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - Global wind power installations are projected to grow from 117 GW in 2023 to 131 GW in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.4% over the next five years [3] Company Strategy - The company is focusing on technological breakthroughs in offshore wind power bearings, which is expected to open up new market opportunities [3] - The company is deepening its cooperation with downstream customers and is expected to benefit from the overseas expansion of wind turbine manufacturers [3] Valuation - The report uses a 2025 PE valuation of 23.28x, based on the average PE of comparable companies, to arrive at a target price of 25.61 CNY [12][13]