证券研究报告 有色金属 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 07 日 黄金价格波动或加剧，政策发力支撑工业金属需求 ——有色金属行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 《美联储降息预期转鹰，贵金属短期价 格波动可能加剧—有色金属行业周报》 2024.12.25 告》2024.12.20 《政策持续发力，关注工业金属需求回 暖—有色金属行业点评报告》2024.12.17 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 美国就业数据韧性较强，美联储票委更换，金价震荡或加剧，中 国经济稳步复苏，宽松预期进一步确认。维持有色板块"推荐" 评级。 分析师：景丹阳 贵金属：美国 2024 年 12 月 28 日当周初请失业金人数为 21.1 万 人，为八个月低点，预期 22.2 万人，前值 21.9 万人，显示美国就 业韧性仍较强，可能对降息预期产生一定影响。1 月初，美联储 公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员名单变动，波士顿联储主席 Susan Collins、芝加哥联储主席 Austan Goolsbee、圣路易斯联储主席 Alber ...

证券研究报告 执业证书编号：S0230521030002 邮箱：yangxt@hlzq.com 《红利为锚，助力资本市场长期发展— ---金融行业 2025 年度投资策略报告》 2024.12.07 《近期关注地方债发行对银行资产端的 影响—金融周报》2024.11.26 好 银 行 和 券 商 板 块 — 金 融 周 报 》 2024.11.20 银行/非银金融 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 06 日 摘要： 金融各板块业绩有望超预期 长期仍需关注投资端 券商：2024 年市场成交回暖，券商业绩有望提升，并购重组节奏 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 请认真阅读文后免责条款 | 市场数据 | | 2025 | 年 1 | 月 3 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业,% | | 1M | 3M | | YTD | | 沪深 | 300 | -3.95 | -6.04 | | -4.06 | | 非银金融 | | -10.62 | -6.73 | | -7.19 | | 银行 | | 2.25 | 2.05 | | -2.87 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [2][22]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is entering the Spring Festival stocking phase, while the snack segment is experiencing higher demand. The overall food and beverage sector is expected to reach an inflection point due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [2][22]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the WeChat "Gift" feature, which is expected to benefit the snack sector significantly [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - In the week from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, the Shenwan food and beverage index fell by 4.14%, ranking seventh among major industries. The snack sector saw a rise of 3.65%, while white liquor experienced a decline of 3.43% [7][22]. Key Company Announcements - Guizhou Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 173.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.44%. The company also repurchased 200,900 shares at a total cost of 299.9 million yuan [21][23]. - Wuliangye has positioned 2025 as a "Marketing Execution Enhancement Year," focusing on price stability and enhancing merchant profitability [23][22]. Sector-Specific Insights - **White Liquor**: The report suggests monitoring Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and other key players as the sector is expected to recover with the gradual revival of consumption [23][22]. - **Snacks**: The snack industry is entering a peak stocking season, with new sales channels introduced via WeChat, suggesting a positive outlook for companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish [25][22]. - **Dairy Products**: The report indicates that the dairy sector may see marginal improvements due to the ongoing clearance of excess upstream capacity, recommending companies like Yili and New Dairy [25][22]. - **Beer**: Yanjing Beer is focusing on its U8 product strategy to enhance its market position, with recommendations for Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer [25][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous focus on domestic AI applications and computing power investment opportunities, highlighting the significant advancements in AI model capabilities and cost reductions [4][12][15]. - The report notes that the average daily token usage of the Doubao model has increased over 33 times since its release, indicating a strong trend of "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" in AI applications [4][12]. - The report suggests that the ongoing competition among overseas tech giants in AI technology is a positive signal for the industry, with a large potential user base for domestic AI applications [15]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index fell by 12.49% [9]. - The top five gainers in the sector included Huijin Technology, ST Yingfeituo, and others, while the top five losers included Kaiwang Technology and others [9]. Industry News - In the first eleven months of 2024, China's software business revenue reached 12,290.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [11]. - The report highlights significant announcements from key companies, including Da Shi Intelligent and Neusoft Group, regarding project wins and acquisitions [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI application companies such as Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, and others, as well as AI computing power companies like Inspur Information and others [15][16]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating potential growth in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for companies like Digital China and Sugon [16].

邮箱：xingt@hlzq.com 《AI+再迎政策支持，11 月挖机销量超 预期—机械设备行业周报》2024.12.23 《风起科技潮，船行内需海，帆扬出海 天—机械设备行业 2025 年度投资策略 报告》2024.12.05 2024.12.02 证券研究报告 机械设备 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 06 日 CES 即将开幕，关注机器人及消费电子设备投资机会 ——机械设备行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230521040001 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 3 日机械设备指数下跌 7.58%， 在一级行业分类中排名第 24 位。受市场整体回调影响，各子板块 均出现不同程度下跌，其中工程机械（-3.97%）及轨交设备 （-6.78%）下跌相对较少，科技属性较强的自动化设备（-9.43%） 下跌较多。我们认为，机械设备行业子行业众多，仍存在结构性 投资机会，维持行业"推荐"评级。可以关注:（一）科技强国战 略高地-人形机器人、半导体设备、消费电子设备等；（二）受益 于内需复苏的顺周期板块，如工程机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry, highlighting the expected advancements in vehicle intelligence by 2025 [8]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing significant developments in smart technology, with companies like Li Auto launching AI models and traditional manufacturers like BYD enhancing their intelligent driving systems [8][52]. - The report anticipates that the penetration of intelligent driving systems will significantly influence consumer purchasing decisions, leading to increased market share for companies that excel in this area [27]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Li Auto is accelerating its AI initiatives, aiming for substantial progress in vehicle intelligence by 2025 [8]. - The report notes that the automotive market is benefiting from policies promoting vehicle scrappage and replacement, which are expected to stimulate sales [90]. Key Industry Dynamics - Xiaomi Auto has partnered with "Wei Xiaoli" to develop a charging network, while BYD has launched its high-level intelligent driving system nationwide [15][56]. - The report highlights the upcoming launch of several new models, including the CS75PLUS and the ET9, which are expected to enhance market competition [34]. Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown resilience, with the overall index underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.7 percentage points [36]. - As of December 27, 2024, the automotive sector's PE ratio stands at 26.0, reflecting a week-on-week increase [42]. Data Tracking - In November 2024, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.424 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [90]. - The report indicates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales reached 52.3%, continuing a trend of over 50% for five consecutive months [89].

是新的一年退市新规即将实施，加之近期不少公司披露被立案调查，还有被强制退市的；二是 1 月份将正式进入年报 预告披露期，那些前期被炒高的题材股，没有业绩支撑的话，就容易跌跌不休。相反，那些有叙事、有业绩的大票自 观点基于均线理论，技术分析可能具有滞后性，过往业绩不代表其未来表现，仅供参考！ 〖资料来源：通达信、wind、财联社、同花顺 iFinD〗 事件：财联社 12 月 27 日讯，尽管在日本央行（Bank of Japan）上周的政策会议上，多数人持谨慎态度导致 利率维持不变，但明年 1 月仍是有可能加息的。 以上信息由华龙证券整理公布，报告版权属华龙证券股份有限公司所有。本内参所载相关数据和信息来源于万得、财联社、同花顺、 启明星终端和公开资料，不构成具体投资建议，仅供投资者参考。据此操作，风险自负。未经许可，严禁以任何方式将本刊物全部或 部分翻印和传播。本周报风险等级为中风险。 - 2 - 度不确定性"的影响，特别是即将上任的美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普政府的经济政策。此外，植田还指出，明年日 本企业和工会之间的薪资谈判前景也很关键。他强调，如果经济继续改善，日本央行将加息，因为维持过度货币支持 的时间 ...

Market Analysis - The market experienced a slight rebound with major indices showing small gains, while the trading volume continued to decline, indicating a potential acceleration in sector rotation [2][7]. - AI hardware stocks saw significant increases, with sectors such as copper cables, CPO, and AI glasses leading the gains, while retail and consumer stocks also rebounded [3][4]. Financing and Investment Trends - As of December 25, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 955.699 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.101 billion yuan from the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance increased by 0.101 billion yuan to 909.774 billion yuan, resulting in a total of 1.865473 trillion yuan across both markets, a decrease of 1 billion yuan [6]. - The humanoid robot company MagicLab recently completed a 150 million yuan angel round of financing, aiming to expand talent recruitment and accelerate the development and commercialization of humanoid robots [9]. Sector Insights - The global energy storage market is primarily dominated by China, the United States, and Europe, which accounted for over 80% of the new installed capacity in 2023. The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed 200 GWh in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 49% from 2021 to 2024 [25]. - The humanoid robot industry is projected to see a cumulative demand of about 2 million units by 2030, indicating a clear trend towards growth in this sector [9]. Upcoming Events - A closed-door seminar on preventing "involution" in the new energy storage industry will be held on December 26, focusing on self-regulation and high-quality development [19].

Market Analysis - The market experienced a slight increase in trading volume, with the three major indices showing mixed performance The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets recorded a total trading volume of 1 43 trillion yuan, an increase of 161 4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Agricultural stocks surged collectively, financial stocks showed intraday fluctuations, and military-industrial stocks strengthened Retail stocks remained active [3] - Leading sectors included agriculture, Hainan, military equipment, and power grid equipment, while e-commerce, semiconductors, copper cable high-speed connections, and CPO sectors declined [4] AI Server Market - The global AI server market revenue reached 45 422 billion USD in Q2 2024, a 35% increase year-over-year AI servers now account for nearly 30% of all server revenue in Q2 2024 [6] - The server market is expected to grow significantly, with capital expenditure projected to increase by 22% in 2025, reaching over 280 billion USD By 2028, the server market is expected to reach 380 billion USD, and by 2030, it is projected to approach 500 billion USD [20] - Global AI server shipments are expected to grow by 41 5% in 2024, reaching 1 67 million units AI server shipments will account for 12 2% of total server shipments, with revenue share reaching 65% due to higher value-added AI servers [21] Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0 06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0 13%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0 22% [15] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market rose, indicating a broad recovery in individual stocks [13] - AI hardware stocks experienced adjustments, with several stocks falling by more than 5% [14] Humanoid Robotics - The domestic humanoid robot market is projected to reach 2 76 billion yuan in 2024, with the potential to grow into a 100 billion yuan market by 2030 Key investment opportunities lie in high-value components with technical barriers, such as actuators, dexterous hands, and sensors [31] PC Market - Global PC shipments increased by 3 1% year-over-year in Q2 2024, reaching 62 5 million units This marks the second consecutive quarter of growth, driven by a moderate replacement cycle and a low base period [31]

Market Analysis - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with slight increases in major indices, while the North Stock Exchange 50 index fell over 4%, reaching a new low for the period. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.28 trillion, a decrease of 157.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [2][6]. Industry Insights - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach 2.76 billion by 2024 and is expected to grow into a trillion-yuan market by 2030. This sector is gaining attention and investment due to its significant market potential. Analysts suggest focusing on key components with high investment value and technological barriers, such as actuators and sensors, as the industry enters mass production by 2025 [6][8]. - NVIDIA has developed the second generation of its general-purpose robot model, RVT-2, which boasts a training efficiency six times faster than its predecessor and a twofold increase in inference efficiency. This advancement is crucial for the commercial application of humanoid robots, as AI capabilities are currently a major technical bottleneck [8][25]. - The Shanghai municipal government has announced plans to build a large-scale autonomous computing cluster to support AI innovation applications. This includes developing autonomous computing chips and enhancing the city's computing resource management capabilities [9][26]. Concept Highlights - The humanoid robot sector is witnessing the emergence of new players, with the recent launch of the MATRIX-1 prototype by Shanghai Matrix Super Intelligence Systems, which is set for mass production next year. This indicates a growing competitive landscape in the humanoid robotics field [22]. Market Performance - Financial stocks showed strong performance, with notable gains in sectors such as insurance, banking, and computing power. Conversely, sectors like agriculture and tourism faced declines [4][17].