请认真阅读文后免责条款 （603993.SH）、西部矿业（601168.SH），美联储降息或有变动， 但不影响黄金价格中枢向上长期趋势，建议关注：山东黄金 （600547.SH）、赤峰黄金（600988.SH）。 行业研究报告 期） 内容目录 | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 图 1: | | 申万一级行业周涨跌幅 . | | 图 2: | | 有色金属各子行业周涨跌幅与主要指数对比 | | 图 3: | | 有色个股周涨幅前五 | | 图 4: | | 有色个股周跌幅前五 | | 图 5: | | 美国 CPI 变动情况 | | 图 6: | | 美国 PPI 变动情况 | | 图 7: | | 美国失业率及非农薪酬变动情况 . | | 图 8: | | 美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 变动 | | 图 ...

风险提示：宏观经济波动风险；政策变动风险；原材料价格波动 风险；地缘政治风险；重点上市车型销量不及预期；智能驾驶算 法迭代不及预期；第三方数据的误差风险；重点关注公司业绩不 及预期。 请认真阅读文后免责条款 车&重卡龙头宇通客车，潍柴动力等。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|------------|-------------------------|-------|---------------|----------------|-------|-------|-------|--------------|-----------|---------------| | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 2024/12/20 \n股价（元） | 2023A | EPS \n 2024E | （元） \n2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024E | PE \n 2025E | \n 2026E | 投资 \n 评级 | | 002594.SZ | 比亚迪 | 2 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|---------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------|-------|-----------------| | | =发电量当月值(亿千瓦时) -- YoY(右) | | | | | | | ■全社会用电量当月值(亿千瓦时) -- YoY(右) | | | | 16, 000 | | | | 20% | | 18, 000 | | | | 14% 12% | | 14, 000 | | | | | | 16, 000 | | | | | | 12, 000 | | | | | | 14, 000 | | | | 10% | | 10, 000 | | | | 10% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The machinery equipment index increased by 3% from December 2 to December 20, 2024, ranking 10th among primary industry categories. The automation equipment and general equipment sectors saw the highest gains at +6.21% and +5.5%, respectively, while the engineering machinery sector declined by -2.78%. The industry is expected to have structural investment opportunities due to various sub-sectors [1][41] - The report highlights the recovery of excavator sales in November, which increased by 17.9% year-on-year, exceeding CME expectations. Domestic sales reached 9,020 units, up 20.5%, while exports totaled 8,570 units, up 15.2%. This growth is attributed to a new round of replacement cycles and the effects of real estate policy easing [1][55][56] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological innovation and the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, which is expected to support the development of humanoid robots and related sectors. The report suggests that 2025 will be a pivotal year for mass production in the humanoid robot industry [1][60] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The machinery equipment sector saw a 3% increase, with automation equipment leading gains at +6.21% [1][41] - The top five gainers included companies like Aifeite-U (+86.4%) and Klaus (+57.8%), while the top five losers included Meichang Co. (-16.67%) and Minglida (-13.21%) [41] 2. Key Industry Data - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 50.3%, indicating a recovery trend in the manufacturing sector [1][45] - Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector increased by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing to overall economic recovery [45] 3. Industry News - The report discusses the establishment of a humanoid robot innovation center in Hangzhou, aiming to develop advanced robotic products and foster industry growth [60] - The report also notes that China has maintained its position as the world's largest industrial robot market for 11 consecutive years, with significant advancements in technology and patent holdings [60]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [14] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that in November, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 25GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 17%. As of the end of November 2024, the total installed photovoltaic capacity reached 820 million kilowatts, up 46.7% year-on-year. For the period from January to November 2024, the domestic photovoltaic newly installed capacity was 206.30GW, an increase of 26% year-on-year [14] - In the wind power sector, the newly installed capacity in November was 5.95GW, a year-on-year increase of 46%. The total installed wind power capacity reached approximately 490 million kilowatts by the end of November 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.2%. For the same period, the domestic wind power newly installed capacity was 51.75GW, up 25% year-on-year [14] - The report suggests that the demand for new energy installations is expected to continue growing in the long term, and the pressure on consumption is likely to be alleviated through energy storage and virtual power plants [14] Summary by Relevant Sections Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report recommends focusing on leading photovoltaic companies such as Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, Jinko Solar, and others, as well as companies with strong profitability in the inverter and energy storage segments like Sungrow Power Supply and DeYe Shares. It also highlights virtual power plant business targets such as Guoneng Rixin and Ankerui [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry, indicating potential recovery in industry valuation due to favorable policies in real estate and infrastructure [1][22]. Core Insights - The cement industry is experiencing a decline in demand, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 10.1% in cumulative production from January to November 2024, totaling 1.671 billion tons [6][22]. - The average price of cement in November was 425.23 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 17.83 yuan per ton, supported by peak production adjustments and industry self-discipline measures [26][42]. - The glass industry is facing a potential downturn as demand is expected to shrink due to seasonal factors, with manufacturers likely to reduce prices to alleviate inventory pressure [58][66]. - The fiberglass sector is seeing price stabilization and potential profitability improvements due to recent price adjustments by leading companies, with a focus on high-end applications driving demand growth [38][60]. Cement Industry Summary - The cement market is under pressure with a 4% month-on-month decline in average shipment rates in November, and a year-on-year decrease of 7% [26][42]. - Regional demand varies, with the North experiencing instability due to environmental regulations, while the South remains relatively stable [26][42]. - Key companies to watch include Shangfeng Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in industry valuation [26][42]. Glass Industry Summary - The glass market is expected to face challenges as demand weakens, particularly in northern regions due to weather conditions and operational halts [58][66]. - The inventory of float glass is projected to increase, leading to price competition among regions [58][66]. - Key players in the glass sector include Qibin Group and Jinjing Technology, which may present short-term opportunities [58][66]. Fiberglass Industry Summary - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a slight increase in market conditions, with price adjustments expected to enhance profitability [38][60]. - Demand from the automotive sector, particularly for new energy vehicles, is robust, with production reaching 1.574 million units in November, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [60][62]. - Key companies to monitor include China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology, which are positioned to capitalize on market trends [38][60]. Consumer Building Materials Summary - Companies in the consumer building materials sector are actively pursuing channel transformations and exploring overseas markets for growth [63][80]. - Recent favorable policies are anticipated to boost industry valuations, with recommended stocks including Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Sankeshu [63][80].

请认真阅读文后免责条款 不下；美联储降息进一步放缓；地缘政治风险；数据引用风险。 表：重点关注公司及盈利预测 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 分析师声明： 投资评级说明： 免责声明： 版权声明： 华龙证券研究所 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The report highlights stable growth in electricity production, with November industrial electricity generation reaching 749.5 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [3] - Cumulatively, from January to November, industrial electricity generation totaled 856.87 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3] - In November, the growth rates of various electricity generation types showed mixed trends, with nuclear power generation accelerating at a growth rate of 3.1%, while wind power saw a decline of 3.3% [3] - Total electricity consumption in November was 784.9 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, although the growth rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation - In November, the growth rates for thermal power and solar power generation decreased, while nuclear power generation accelerated. Specifically, thermal power grew by 1.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from October, and solar power increased by 10.3%, down 2.3 percentage points from October [3] - The report indicates that the electricity generation from hydropower decreased by 1.9%, but the decline was less severe than in October, which saw a 13.0% drop [3] Electricity Consumption - The report notes that electricity consumption growth rates across various industries slowed down in November. The primary industry saw a consumption of 10.4 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.6% year-on-year, while the secondary industry consumed 539.9 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 2.2% increase [3] - The tertiary industry consumed 138.3 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, but the growth rate decreased by 3.66 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the industry, including Huadian International, Guodian Power, and Datang Power in the thermal and new energy sectors, as well as Huaneng Hydropower and China Nuclear Power in the hydropower and nuclear sectors respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [8] Core Viewpoints - The launch of the extended-range version of the Zhijie R7 is expected to significantly boost vehicle sales, marking the beginning of a product-rich year for Hongmeng Zhixing in 2025 [8] - The R7 extended-range version features Huawei's Snow Owl intelligent silent range extension technology, optimizing power balance, NVH, and energy consumption [8] - The vehicle is equipped with a new generation DriveONE three-in-one motor with a maximum speed of 16,000 rpm and a power generation efficiency exceeding 92% [8] - The engine achieves a thermal efficiency of 44.5%, and the vehicle includes advanced noise control technologies [8] - The R7 extended-range model is designed to alleviate range anxiety for users compared to pure electric models, with significant sales potential anticipated [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Developments - On December 19, 2024, Huawei collaborated with four automakers, including Seres and Chery, to launch the Zhijie R7 extended-range version, priced between 249,800 and 289,800 yuan, with deliveries starting on January 5, 2025 [8] Market Outlook - The first-tier intelligent driving capabilities are expected to drive sales growth for Hongmeng Zhixing vehicles in 2025, as the company has become the first in China to implement an end-to-end intelligent driving system [8] - By the end of November 2024, the total mileage of intelligent driving reached over 1 billion kilometers, with significant user engagement [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from Huawei's intelligent driving capabilities, including Seres, Changan Automobile, JAC Motors, and BAIC Blue Valley [8]

Market Analysis - The market experienced a general rise, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing up 1.35% [2][7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 90.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - Over 3,500 stocks rose, with more than 150 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [4] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks saw significant gains across various sectors, including retail, ice and snow industry, food, and home furnishings [5][6] - The financial sector showed a brief rally, while robotics stocks exhibited mixed performance [5] Financing Data - As of December 11, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 959.167 billion yuan, an increase of 2.518 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 912.601 billion yuan, up by 2.844 billion yuan, bringing the total to 1.871768 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.362 billion yuan [9] Investment Insights - The market is experiencing a resurgence in themes, particularly in consumer sectors, which is boosting market sentiment and trading volume, indicating a favorable environment for investment [10] - The electric vehicle battery sector is poised for growth, with a projected increase in battery shipments from 816.6 GWh in 2024 to 1860.5 GWh by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 22.9% [11] Key News - The launch of the first intelligent connected bus in Jinan marks a significant step in the adoption of autonomous driving technology, which is expected to drive new business models and social benefits [13] - The ice and snow sports sector is becoming a vital force in driving economic consumption and tourism recovery, with a projected market size of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 [13]