偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 229 期，总第 1788 期（电子版） 2024 年 12 月 16 日 星期一 沪深指数 收盘(点) 涨跌幅(%) 上证指数 3391.88 -2.01 中小 100 6520.1 -1.99 创业板指 2235.26 -2.48 一、市场分析 指数区间震荡 情绪再回谨慎 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------|-----------| | 沪深 300 | 3933.18 | -2.37 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 43828.06 | -0.2 | | 纳斯达克 | 19926.72 | 0.12 | | 标普 500 | 6051.09 | 0 | | 英国富时 100 | 8300.33 | -0.14 | | 日经 225 | 39577.28 | 0.27 | | 恒生指数 | 19971.24 | -2.09 | | --- | --- | --- | |----------- ...

偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 230 期，总第 1789 期（电子版） 2024 年 12 月 17 日 星期二 货币市场 美元兑日元 154.2835 0.08 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|---------------------|-----------| | | 沪深指数 \n收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3386.33 | -0.16 | | 深证成指 | 10573.92 | -1.3 | | 中小 100 | 6414.11 | -1.63 | | 创业板指 | 2201.53 | -1.51 | | 沪深 300 | 3911.84 | -0.54 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 43717.48 | -0.25 | | 纳斯达克 | 20173.89 | 1.24 | | 标普 500 | 6074.08 | 0.38 | | 英国富时 100 | 8262.05 | -0.46 | | 日经 225 | 3 ...

偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 231 期，总第 1790 期（电子版） 2024 年 12 月 18 日 星期三 欧元兑美元 1.0501 0.09 美元兑日元 153.7048 0.15 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------|-----------| | | 沪深指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3361.49 | -0.73 | | 深证成指 | 10537.43 | -0.35 | | 中小 100 | 6413.61 | -0.01 | | 创业板指 | 2201.18 | -0.02 | | 沪深 300 | 3922.03 | 0.26 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 43449.9 | -0.61 | | 纳斯达克 | 20109.06 | -0.32 | | 标普 500 | 6050.61 | -0.39 | | 英国富时 100 | 8195.2 | -0.81 | ...

偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 232 期，总第 1791 期（电子版） 2024 年 12 月 19 日 星期四 沪深指数 美元离岸人民币 7.3231 -0.02 欧元兑美元 1.0366 0.15 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------|-----------| | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3382.21 | 0.62 | | 深证成指 | 10584.27 | 0.44 | | 中小 100 | 6447.06 | 0.52 | | 创业板指 | 2202.14 | 0.04 | | 沪深 300 | 3941.89 | 0.51 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 42326.87 | -2.58 | | 纳斯达克 | 19392.69 | -3.56 | | 标普 500 | 5872.16 | -2.95 | | 英国富时 100 | 8199.11 | 0.05 | | 日经 225 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in industrial metal demand supported by ongoing policy efforts, with a focus on the resilience of the investment and industrial sectors [1] - Economic indicators show a mixed recovery, with fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) growing by 3.3% year-on-year, retail sales increasing by 3%, and industrial value-added output rising by 5.4% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates that the combination of fiscal and monetary policies will drive industrial metal demand growth in 2025, particularly for copper and aluminum [1] Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - In November, fixed asset investment grew by 3.3% year-on-year, retail sales increased by 3%, and industrial value-added output rose by 5.4% year-on-year [1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, indicating challenges in that sector [1] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference set the tone for 2025, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The report expects fiscal measures to include increased fiscal deficit rates and the issuance of long-term special bonds to stimulate economic growth [1] Industry Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the industrial metals sector, including Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Western Mining (601168.SH), Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH), and China Aluminum (601600.SH) [1][4] - The anticipated recovery in investment and industrial sectors is expected to benefit industrial metals, with a recommendation to monitor these leading companies closely [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The electric new energy sector experienced a decline of 2.15% from December 9 to December 15, ranking 30th among 31 industries, while the public utility sector saw a slight decrease of 0.15%, ranking 17th [1][14] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to regulate "involutionary" competition and promote technological innovation to develop a modern industrial system, which is expected to rationalize prices in the photovoltaic industry [1][28] - The Yangjiang Fanshi No.1 1GW offshore wind project has announced successful bids for submarine cable laying projects, indicating a potential acceleration in domestic offshore wind construction and increased export opportunities [1][28] - The national energy work conference highlighted plans to approve key power interconnection projects by 2025, which is expected to boost domestic grid investment [1][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The electric new energy sector's performance was -2.15%, while the public utility sector was -0.15% during the specified week [14] 2. Key Industry Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - The central economic work conference aims to address "involutionary" competition and accelerate the construction of new energy bases [28] - The Yangjiang Fanshi No.1 offshore wind project has awarded contracts for submarine cables, with significant project values [30] - The national energy work conference plans to approve several key power interconnection projects by 2025 [28] 2.2 Company Announcements - Xiwanda signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xiamen Tungsten New Energy to develop solid-state battery materials [34] - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to invest in new energy battery production bases in Slovakia and Morocco, with total investments not exceeding €12.34 billion and €12.8 billion respectively [34] 3. Industry Tracking - The report tracks the performance of various sectors within the electric new energy industry, including photovoltaic and wind energy, highlighting price trends and production capacity [9][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of the Fancheng Yuhai Wind Project and the empowerment of low-altitude economic development through meteorological data [1] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see price rationalization due to policy adjustments and supply-demand improvements, following the central economic work conference's emphasis on curbing "involution" competition [1][28] - The wind power sector is witnessing accelerated project progress, with the recent announcement of successful bids for submarine cable projects related to the Yangjiang Fancheng Yuhai offshore wind project [1][30] - The report indicates a robust outlook for the power equipment sector, driven by domestic investment growth and high overseas demand [1][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - From December 9 to December 15, 2024, the Shenwan Electric New Energy sector declined by 2.15%, ranking 30th among 31 industries, while the Public Utilities sector fell by 0.15%, ranking 17th [14][1] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.01% during the same period [14] 2. Key Industry Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for technological innovation and the establishment of a modern industrial system, aiming to regulate local government and enterprise behaviors [28] - The Yangjiang Fancheng Yuhai offshore wind project has announced successful bids for submarine cable projects, with total bid amounts of approximately 9.1 billion yuan and 8.0 billion yuan [30] - The National Energy Administration plans to approve the construction of key power interconnection projects by 2025, enhancing the energy transmission network [30] 2.2 Company Announcements - Xiwanda signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xiamen Tungsten New Energy to develop solid-state battery materials [34] - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to invest in new energy battery production bases in Slovakia and Morocco, with total investments not exceeding 12.34 billion euros and 12.8 billion euros, respectively [34] 3. Industry Tracking - The report tracks the price trends of various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating fluctuations in material costs [9] - It also monitors the installation and bidding activities in the wind power sector, highlighting the growth in installed capacity [9] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the photovoltaic sector such as Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and JinkoSolar, as well as strong inverter manufacturers like Sungrow Power Supply and DeYe Shares [3] - In the wind power sector, it recommends companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Oriental Cable [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on dividend strategies and emphasizes investment opportunities in the consumer sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the A-share market saw a mixed performance, with small-cap indices leading gains, particularly the CSI 2000 index which rose by 1.99% [45]. - It notes that 14 out of 31 industries reported positive weekly returns, with the retail trade sector leading at 6.17% [45]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending a focus on both dividend and technology sectors while emphasizing opportunities in the consumer industry [1]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The core indices experienced an average decline of -0.58%, with the median at -0.98% [45]. - The top-performing industries included retail trade, textiles, media, social services, and light industry manufacturing, while non-bank financials and power equipment lagged behind [45]. ETF Fund Performance - Among ETF categories, commodity ETFs outperformed, followed by bond ETFs, with stock ETFs showing negative average returns [48]. - The report details that strategy-type ETFs had the least negative performance at -0.23%, while thematic ETFs had the worst at -0.90% [48]. Fund Flows - The report notes a net inflow of 27.34 billion yuan into stock ETFs, with significant inflows into scale-type ETFs, strategy-type ETFs, and industry-type ETFs [76]. - The top three industry-type ETFs by net inflow were focused on consumer sectors, securities, and pharmaceuticals [80]. Upcoming ETF Issuance - A total of 17 ETFs are set to be issued in the upcoming week, with 6 planned for immediate fundraising [1]. ETF Strategy - The report emphasizes that commodity ETFs, particularly those linked to gold, performed well, while the best-performing thematic ETFs were related to media and tourism [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metal sector, indicating a positive outlook based on recent economic policies and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has clarified policy directions, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth. This is expected to boost demand for industrial metals [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 72.96 million ounces, up by 160,000 ounces from October, which supports upward pressure on gold prices [1]. - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is likely to improve, leading to a recovery in investment and consumption demand, which will directly benefit industrial metals such as copper and aluminum [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Review - From December 9 to December 13, the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index fell by 0.84%. Among sub-industries, industrial metals decreased by 0.16%, while precious metals increased by 0.89% [14]. - Key individual stocks showed significant fluctuations, with top gainers including Yitong New Materials (up 15%) and Guocheng Mining (up 14%) [16]. 2. Precious Metals - The report notes that geopolitical events and strong economic data in the U.S. may lead to fluctuations in gold prices, but the long-term trend remains upward [29]. 3. Industrial Metals - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining stable economic growth and increasing residents' income, which is expected to enhance the demand for industrial metals [42]. - The report suggests that the implementation of more aggressive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing will likely lead to a recovery in the industrial sector, benefiting metals like copper and aluminum [46].

Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3402.53, down 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.55% to 10731.66, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.81% to 2248.63 [2][3] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.63 trillion yuan, a decrease of 154.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - Overseas markets showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.54%, Nasdaq down 0.62%, and S&P 500 down 0.61%, while the Hang Seng Index rose 2.76% [2] - In the futures market, NYMEX crude oil fell 0.32% to $68.15, COMEX gold dropped 0.12% to $2682.7, and COMEX silver decreased 0.33% to $32.505 [2] Sector Performance - The robotics sector remained strong, with over 20 stocks, including Kelisens, hitting the daily limit [3] - The AI application sector showed localized activity, while the CRO sector was boosted by positive news, with WuXi AppTec rising over 6% [3] - The real estate sector experienced adjustments, with declines in the real estate, Hainan, photovoltaic equipment, and retail sectors [4] Financing Data - As of December 6, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 951.231 billion yuan, a decrease of 905 million yuan from the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 897.98 billion yuan, down 604 million yuan [7] - The total financing balance of the two markets was 1.849211 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.509 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] Investment Advisor Insights - The market experienced increased intraday volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a cross-shaped candlestick pattern during consolidation [8] - The overall market remains above multiple moving averages, with active individual stock sentiment and a focus on the rotation of hot themes [8] AI Education Sector - The AI education sector is gaining momentum, with the Ministry of Education encouraging the integration of AI education into after-school services and study tours [9] - ByteDance's Doubao app, with a monthly active user base of 70 million, is leading the AI learning trend, offering features like English speaking practice and subject-specific Q&A [9] - The AI education industry is entering a phase of industrial expansion, with strong product capabilities and efficient promotion being key to success [10] Robotics and AI - Huawei's subsidiary, Dongguan Jimo Machine, saw its registered capital increase from 870 million yuan to 3.89 billion yuan, a 347% increase, signaling Huawei's strong push into the robotics sector [12] - The robotics sector saw multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, with Aisida rising 10% over 17 days and 10 boards, and Taier Co rising 9.99% over 8 days and 8 boards [13] AI Applications - AI application stocks in the US continued to rise, with AppLovin's market cap exceeding $130 billion, up 8.5 times year-to-date [15] - In China, AI-related stocks like Tianyu Digital and Huayang Lianzhong saw significant gains, with Tianyu Digital rising 10.03% over 6 days and 4 boards [15] PEEK Materials - The demand for PEEK materials is expected to reach 16.7 billion yuan by 2027, driven by the production of humanoid robots [23] - Stocks like Zhongxin Fluoride Materials and Zhongyan Co hit the daily limit, with Zhongyan Co rising 20% [24] Automotive and Smart Driving - The automotive sector is expected to see a year-end surge due to the upcoming end of the scrappage and trade-in policies [28] - Smart driving stocks like Risen Group and Suo Ling Co hit the daily limit, with Risen Group rising 10% over 9 days and 8 boards [20][22] Consumer Goods - The home appliance sector saw strong performance, with Whirlpool rising 10.03% over 2 days and 2 boards, and Shuaifeng Electric rising 9.99% [34] - The furniture and decoration sector also performed well, with Faslong and Piano hitting the daily limit [36] CRO/CMO Sector - The CRO sector was boosted by the exclusion of the biosecurity bill from the US National Defense Authorization Act, with stocks like Dezhang Health and Rui Zhi Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [37][40] Future Events - Key upcoming events include the 2024 Mobile Robot Industry Development Annual Meeting on December 11, the 2024 China Artificial Intelligence Conference on December 13, and the 2024 China (Yangtze River Delta) Low-altitude Economy Application Expo from December 20 to 22 [43]