M1、M2 增速持续回落 ——6 月社融数据点评 6 月新增人民币贷款 21300 亿元，同比少增 9200 亿元，但环比多增 11800 亿元，市场融资需求进一步有所恢复。其中居民短期、中长期贷款均 已连续五个月同比少增，指向居民消费与房地产市场表现仍然偏弱。企业 部门贷款增加 16300 亿元，环比季节性增加了 8900 亿元，但同比少增 6503 分析师：刘娟秀 资格证书：S0650524050001 联系邮箱：liujuanxiu@mgzq.com 联系电话：15210154632 相关研究 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 正文目录 图表目录 宏观研究报告 2024 年 6 月社会融资规模增加 32999 亿元，略超市场预期。社融增速小幅回 落 0.3pct 至 8.1%。直接融资同比延续正增长，对新增社融贡献较多。信贷同比 由增转负，对社融规模造成拖累。其中，政府债券发行继续加速，新增政府债券 融资 8476 亿元，同比多增 3105 亿元；新增企业债券融资 2100 亿元，同比减少 149 亿元，主要原因仍是企业融资意愿不强，实体有效融资需求还有待提振；新 增企业境内股票融资 154 亿元，同 ...

大宗商品主要指数环比回落 宏观经济高频数据周报（2024 年 7 月 8 日-7 月 14 日） 上周（7 月 8 日-7 月 14 日）宏观高频数据显示，大宗商品价格指数环比回 落，基建相关指数表现不佳。房地产持续下探但环比降幅收窄，有效需求 不足仍是核心约束。通胀高频指标整体小幅回升，流动性相关指数下行。 本周（7 月 15 日-7 月 21 日）重点关注中国第二季度 GDP 年率，6 月社零 数据，6 月规模以上工业增加值以及美国 6 月进口物价指数月率，英国与欧 元区 6 月 CPI 月率，美联储经济状况褐皮书。 ·中游：上周中游端基建相关指数同比均有回落，或受淡季需求减少及钢厂 年中修减产影响。 ·通胀：猪肉平均批发价、农产品批发价格 200 指数及 28 种重点监测蔬菜 环比延续正增长，7 种重点监测水果则环比由降转增至 7.25 元/公斤，南华 工业品价格则环比小幅回落至 4082.15。 风险提示：基本面变化超预期；大宗商品价格波动超预期；外部环境 存在不确定性。 分析师：刘娟秀 资格证书：S0650524050001 联系邮箱：liujuanxiu@mgzq.com 联系电话：1521015 ...

| --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 当日市场简报 . | | | 国内市场指数 . | | | 重要市场指数 . ● | | | 市场规模风向标 • | | | 市场情绪 . | | | 中万行业涨跌幅 ... .. . ● | | | 热门概念指数涨跌 ... ● | | | 涨跌家数统计 . ● | | | 股指期货升贴水表现 ............................................................................................................................. 6 | | | 主要指数基差 . ● | | | 其他重要指数市场表现 .................... ...

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The global economic cycle is showing signs of improvement, which is expected to boost China's external demand[45] - The US is likely entering a restocking phase, which may drive demand for Chinese exports[47] - The synchronization of inventory cycles between China and the US is anticipated to enhance recovery expectations, leading to increased export growth for China[45] Group 2: Export Structure and Growth - China's export structure is shifting towards high-quality products, with significant growth in high-tech and high-value-added goods[67] - In 2023, China's solar battery exports grew by 38.5%, capturing approximately 80% of the global market share[58] - Exports of electric vehicles reached 1.773 million units in 2023, marking a 67.1% increase year-on-year, making China the second-largest car exporter globally[63] Group 3: Market Diversification - China's export destinations are diversifying, with ASEAN countries becoming increasingly significant[67] - The share of Chinese integrated circuit exports to emerging markets like India and Vietnam has notably increased, reflecting a strategic shift in market focus[78] - The proportion of exports to developed economies is declining, while exports to emerging economies are on the rise, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[83]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the major indices in the domestic market experienced positive movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.06% to close at 2,970.39 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.99% to 8,870.36 points [6][8][38]. - The total trading volume of A-shares in both markets reached 789.86 billion [8]. Index Performance - The report highlights the performance of various indices, including the CSI 300 which rose by 1.14% to 3,468.17 points, and the CSI 500 which increased by 1.97% to 4,939.73 points [38]. - The Wande Micro Index saw a significant increase of 4.25%, closing at 213,850.95 points [38]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the retail trade sector led with a rise of 4.09%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 3.80% and the comprehensive sector at 3.28% [40]. - Conversely, the banking sector experienced a decline of 1.58% [40]. Market Sentiment - The report notes a significant increase in the number of stocks that hit the daily limit up, with 4,987 stocks rising, an increase of 3,444 from the previous trading day [20]. - The number of stocks that hit the daily limit down decreased to 8, down by 39 from the previous day [20]. Hot Concepts - The top five performing indices in terms of returns for the day included the Lithium Mining Index with a gain of 5.32%, followed by the CRO Index at 4.89%, and the Soft Drink Index at 4.59% [19][32].

重要新闻：据中国证券报消息，备受关注的新一轮财税体制改革渐行 渐近。 新一轮改革既要立足于当前的宏观经济和财政形势，更要站在国家 治理和国家战略的高度，建立健全与中国式现代化相适应的现代财政制度。 具体来看，优化税制结构、理顺政府间财政关系、强化转移支付激励约束等 料是本轮改革的重点任务。 麦高研究之每日市场观察（2024.07.12） 今日 A 股重要市场指数简报：上证综指上涨 0.03%，收于 2971.30 点， 深证成指下跌 0.18%，收于 8854.08 点，创业板指下跌 0.09%，收于 1683.63 点，科创 50 上涨 0.05%，收于 718.37 点，北证 50 上涨 0.31%，收于 692.36 点，两市 A 股成交金额为 6898.64 亿元。 热门概念方面，当日收益率前五的分别为：家电金股指数（3.50%）、 啤酒指数（2.40%）、房地产指数（2.33%）、银行指数（2.14%）、发电设备指 数（1.88%）。 麦高证券 研究发展部 联系电话：15821110817 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 正文目录 | --- | --- | --- | |---------|- ...

黄金周度观察——2024 年第 28 周 短期来看，美国经济数据走弱、美联储降息预期升温或对黄金价格形 成一定支撑。6 月美国非农就业人口增加 20.6 万人，高于市场预期的 19 万 人。此外，失业率走高到 4.1%，创出近期新高，意味着美国通胀压力得到 缓解以及经济增速放缓，令市场对美联储将在 9 月降息的预期升温，短期 内或将支撑金价上行。 麦高证券 研究发展部 《宏观市场周报（20240701- 20240705）》2024.07.09 《黄金周度观察——2024 年第 27 周》 2024.07.05 《宏观市场周报（20240624- 20240628）》2024.07.01 《黄金周度观察——2024 年第 26 周》 2024.06.26 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | ...

| --- | |--------------------------------------------------------| | | | 相关研究 | | 《麦高研究之每日市场观察 | | （ 2024.07.09）》2024.07.09 | | 《麦高研究之每日市场观察 | | （ 2024.07.08）》2024.07.08 《麦高研究之每日市场观察 | | （ 2024.07.05 ）》 2024.07.05 《麦高研究之每日市场观察 | | （ 2024.07.04 ）》 2024.07.04 | 正文目录 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 资料来源：Wind、麦高证券研究发展部 重要市场指数 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|----------------|--------------|------------|------------------| | 代 码 | 名 称 | 指数分类 | 收盘点位 | 当日涨跌幅（ %） | | 000001.SH | 上证指数 | 重要市场指数 | 2,939.36 | -0.68 | | ...

CPI 低位运行，PPI 降幅收窄 食品价格同比降幅扩大，环比由正转负。分项中猪肉是主要拉动项， 而鲜菜鲜果继续拖累；薯类、鲜果、虾蟹等产品价格因供给增多导致价格季 节性下降；鸡蛋、羊肉、牛肉和禽肉类价格继续下跌；而猪肉价格同比环比 继续上涨，且涨幅均较上月扩大。非食品价格同比、环比增速均持平上月。 暑假临近带动交通工具租赁费和飞机票价格上涨对非食品分项形成拉动， 其中服务价格上涨 0.7%，旅游价格上涨 3.7%，但宾馆住宿价格下降 1.9%。 油价和汽车等耐用品价格下跌形成拖累，其中，国际油价波动导致国内汽油 价格下降 2.0%，而"618"促销活动影响下，汽车和家用器具、文娱耐用消费 品价格下降。 风险提示：政策落地不及预期；消费者信心恢复不及预期。 相关研究 证券研究报告—宏观研究报告 撰写日期：2024 年 07 月 11 日 6 月 CPI 同比继续上涨，环比延续下降，低于市场预期（0.41%）。总 体上看，物价温和回升是趋势，后续主要目标或是提振需求。6 月 CPI 同比 上涨 0.2%，较上月增速减缓，其中翘尾因素影响约为 0.2%，新涨价因素影 响约为 0；CPI 环比录得-0.2%，前值- ...

Liquidity Operations - Last week, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 740 billion yuan from the open market, with 7-day reverse repos of 10 billion yuan and 750 billion yuan maturing, maintaining an interest rate of 1.80%[1][6][7] - This week, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan from the open market, with 7-day reverse repos of 4 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan maturing[1][6][7] Interbank Market - The issuance volume of interbank certificates of deposit (NCDs) last week was 228.85 billion yuan, with an average coupon rate rising by 0.65 basis points to 1.95%[2][8][43] - The maturity volume of NCDs last week significantly decreased to 132.68 billion yuan, compared to 797.71 billion yuan in the previous week[2][43] Interest Rates - The weighted average of R007 was 1.88%, down 45 basis points from the previous week, while DR007 was 1.80%, down 29 basis points[15][34] - The spread between R007 and DR007 widened to 122 basis points, up 95 basis points from the previous week[15][34] - The average rate of 1-year FR007 swaps was 1.85%, up 1 basis point from the previous week[46] Foreign Exchange Market - The USD/CNY exchange rate rose last week, closing at 7.2674 on Friday, compared to 7.2659 the previous week[24] - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. decreased to 5.32% last week[25]