Mai Gao Zheng Quan
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ETF周报(20251013-20251017)-20251020
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-20 11:48
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the secondary market and ETF products from multiple perspectives, including the performance of major indices, the market performance of different types of ETFs, their fund flows, trading volumes, margin trading, and new product launches during the sample period from October 13 to October 17, 2025 [1][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Secondary Market Overview - **Index Performance**: SGE Gold 9999, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225 had the top weekly returns, at 10.71%, 1.70%, and -1.05% respectively. The PE valuation quantile of CSI 300 was the highest at 95.88%, while that of CSI 2000 was the lowest at 86.83% [10]. - **Industry Performance**: Among Shenwan primary industries, Bank, Coal, and Food & Beverage had the top returns, at 4.89%, 4.17%, and 0.86% respectively. Electronics, Media, and Automobile had the lowest returns, at -7.14%, -6.27%, and -5.99% respectively. The industries with the highest valuation quantiles were Coal, Utilities, and Non - Ferrous Metals, at 99.59%, 97.94%, and 97.53% respectively [16]. 2. ETF Product Overview 2.1 ETF Market Performance - **By Product Type**: Commodity ETFs had the best average performance, with a weighted average return of 10.90%, while QDII ETFs had the worst, at -5.03%. - **By Listing Plate**: ETFs corresponding to Japanese stocks had better performance, with a weighted average return of 1.63%. Science and Technology Innovation Board - related and Hong Kong stock ETFs had poor performance, with weighted average returns of -6.31% and -5.87% respectively. - **By Industry Plate**: Consumer sector ETFs had the best average performance, with a weighted average return of -0.16%, while Technology sector ETFs had the worst, at -7.36%. - **By Theme**: Bank and Dividend ETFs performed well, with weighted average returns of 5.18% and 1.32% respectively. Robot and Consumer Electronics ETFs had relatively poor performance, with weighted average returns of -9.41% and -7.77% respectively [20][25]. 2.2 ETF Fund Inflows and Outflows - **By ETF Category**: Industry - themed ETFs had the largest net fund inflow of 467.78 billion yuan, while broad - based ETFs had the smallest, at -205.63 billion yuan. - **By Listing Plate**: Hong Kong stock ETFs had the largest net fund inflow of 217.57 billion yuan, while ChiNext - related ETFs had the smallest, at -40.60 billion yuan. - **By Industry Plate**: Financial Real Estate sector ETFs had the largest net fund inflow of 160.23 billion yuan, while Biomedical sector ETFs had the smallest, at 27.90 billion yuan. - **By Theme**: Non - Bank and Bank ETFs had the largest net fund inflows, at 82.25 billion yuan and 78.57 billion yuan respectively. Consumer Electronics and Artificial Intelligence ETFs had the smallest, at -6.07 billion yuan and -1.30 billion yuan respectively [27][29]. 2.3 ETF Trading Volume - **By ETF Category**: Commodity ETFs had the largest increase in the daily average trading volume change rate, at 95.63%, while broad - based ETFs had the smallest, at 1.72%. - **By Listing Plate**: Japanese stock ETFs had the largest increase in the daily average trading volume change rate, at 69.17%, while CSI 2000 had the largest decrease, at -11.10%. - **By Industry Plate**: Cyclical sector ETFs had the largest increase in the daily average trading volume change rate, at 40.81%, while Biomedical sector ETFs had the largest decrease, at -9.90%. - **By Theme**: Non - Bank and Chip Semiconductor ETFs had the largest 5 - day average daily trading volumes, at 314.43 billion yuan and 158.86 billion yuan respectively. Bank and Dividend ETFs had the largest increases in the daily average trading volume change rate, at 64.61% and 31.52% respectively. Artificial Intelligence and Robot ETFs had the largest decreases, at -24.54% and -23.49% respectively [34][40][41]. 2.4 ETF Margin Trading - The net margin purchase of all equity ETFs was 2.174 billion yuan, and the net short - selling was 543 million yuan. During the sample period, the net margin purchase of Huatai - PineBridge CSI Main Consumption ETF was the largest, and the net short - selling of Southern CSI 500 ETF was the largest [2][47]. 2.5 ETF New Launches and Listings - One fund was established and seven funds were listed during the sample period [3][49].
策略周报(20251013-20251017)-20251020
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-20 07:35
Market Liquidity Overview - R007 decreased from 1.4850% to 1.4685%, a reduction of 1.65 basis points; DR007 fell from 1.4229% to 1.4085%, down 1.44 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 narrowed by 0.21 basis points [9][13] - The net inflow of funds this week was 11.43 billion, a decrease of 28.91 billion from the previous week, with total fund supply at 80.86 billion and demand at 69.43 billion. Fund supply decreased by 4.56 billion, with net financing buy decreasing by 60.09 billion, while stock dividends increased by 39.30 billion [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index declined, with the banking sector showing the strongest performance, up 4.99%, while the electronics and media sectors led the declines, down 7.10% and 6.28% respectively [18][20] - The net inflow of leveraged funds was highest in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a net inflow of 5.15 billion, while the electronics sector saw a significant net outflow of 6.23 billion [21][22] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most style indices experienced declines, with the growth style suffering the largest drop of 5.82%, followed by the cyclical style at 3.78%. The growth style remains the most active sector, accounting for 55.99% of average daily trading volume [32][33] - The average turnover rate for the growth style was the highest at 2.98%, while financial and stable styles had relatively low turnover rates [33]
9月金融数据点评:M1同比增速继续回升,“剪刀差”持续收窄
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-17 11:04
Financing Data - In September 2025, the new social financing scale increased by 35,296 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2,339 billion yuan[10] - The total social financing stock growth rate for the first three quarters was 8.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[10] - New corporate bonds in September amounted to 136 billion yuan, an increase of 2,062 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to low base effects and policy support[11] Loan and Credit Analysis - In September, new RMB loans totaled 12,900 billion yuan, an increase of 7,000 billion yuan month-on-month, but a decrease of 3,000 billion yuan year-on-year[12] - Short-term corporate loans recorded a significant increase of 6,400 billion yuan month-on-month, reflecting heightened operational activity among enterprises[12] - New medium- and long-term loans increased by 4,400 billion yuan month-on-month, indicating a gradual recovery in project investment willingness among enterprises[12] Monetary Supply Trends - M2 grew by 8.4% year-on-year in September, down 0.4 percentage points from August, but still 1.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year[2] - M1 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.2 percentage points from August, with the M1-M2 growth rate gap narrowing to 1.2%[2] - The acceleration in M1 growth is attributed to increased credit issuance, enhanced fiscal spending, and heightened market transaction activity[20]
ETF观察日志(2025-10-16):麦高视野
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-17 03:03
- The report includes the construction of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) factor, which is calculated using the formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS) $, where RS represents the ratio of average gains to average losses over a 12-day period. RSI values above 70 indicate an overbought market, while values below 30 suggest an oversold market [2] - The report also introduces the Net Purchase (NETBUY) factor, calculated using the formula: $ NETBUY(T) = NAV(T) - NAV(T-1) * (1 + R(T)) $, where NETBUY(T) represents the net purchase amount, NAV(T) is the ETF net asset value on day T, and R(T) is the return on day T [2] - The report provides daily tracking of ETF data, segmented into "Broad-based" and "Thematic" categories based on the indices they track, such as CSI 300, CSI 500, and industry-specific indices like non-bank financials and dividends [2][3] - The RSI factor is evaluated as a useful indicator for identifying market conditions, such as overbought or oversold states, aiding in short-term trading decisions [2] - The Net Purchase factor is assessed as a measure of fund flow dynamics, reflecting investor sentiment and activity in ETF markets [2] - RSI values for various ETFs are provided, such as 58.17 for Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, 57.53 for E Fund CSI 300 ETF, and 51.89 for Southern CSI 500 ETF, among others [4] - Net Purchase values for ETFs are also listed, including -13.98 billion for Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, 0.70 billion for E Fund CSI 300 ETF, and -12.21 billion for Southern CSI 500 ETF, among others [4]
麦高证券策略周报-20251013
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-13 09:10
Market Liquidity Overview - R007 decreased from 1.6118% to 1.4850%, a reduction of 12.68 basis points; DR007 fell from 1.4376% to 1.4229%, down by 1.47 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 narrowed by 11.21 basis points [9][13] - The net inflow of funds this week was 41.556 billion yuan, an increase of 67.826 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 85.419 billion yuan, while demand was 43.863 billion yuan. Specifically, fund supply increased by 66.981 billion yuan, with net financing purchases rising by 76.935 billion yuan [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose this week, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing the strongest performance, gaining 4.35%. Coal and steel sectors also saw slight increases. In contrast, the media and consumer services sectors led the declines, falling by 3.58% and 2.81%, respectively [18][21] - The electronic industry received the most net leveraged funds, totaling 7.780 billion yuan, while the coal industry experienced a net outflow of 0.38 billion yuan, marking the most significant reduction [21][22] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - The stable style index had the highest increase at 2.58%, while the growth style index saw the largest decline at 1.78%. The growth style remains the most active sector, accounting for 59.89% of the average daily trading volume [3][11]
麦高视野:ETF观察日志(2025-10-10)
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-13 06:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents daily tracking data of various ETFs, including wide - based and theme ETFs, covering information such as intraday market trends, management fees, tracking indices, T + 0 trading, market capitalization, price changes, RSI, net subscriptions, trading volumes, and institutional holding ratios [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Data Description - The table tracks daily frequency data of ETFs and is divided into "wide - based" and "theme" sub - tables according to the tracking indices. The "wide - based" ETFs track mainstream wide - based indices like CSI 300, while "theme" ETFs track industry/style indices [2] - The fund pool is constructed by selecting one or several relatively large - scale ETFs in each type for analysis [2] - The RSI is calculated based on the ratio of average gains to average losses over a 12 - day period. RSI>70 indicates an over - bought market, and RSI<30 indicates an over - sold market [2] - The net subscription amount is calculated using the formula NETBUY(T) = NAV(T)–NAV(T - 1)*(1 + R(T)), where NAV(T - 1) is the previous trading day's ETF net value [2] 3.2 Wide - based ETFs - For CSI 300 ETFs, such as Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) with a market capitalization of 426.101 billion yuan and a price decline of 2.01%, and E Fund CSI 300 ETF (510310.SH) with a market capitalization of 303.338 billion yuan and a price decline of 1.92% [4] - For CSI 500 ETFs, Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500.SH) has a market capitalization of 140.102 billion yuan and a price decline of 1.88%, while Huaxia CSI 500 ETF (512500.SH) has a market capitalization of 17.245 billion yuan and a price decline of 2.02% [4] - For SSE 50 ETFs, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (510050.SH) has a market capitalization of 180.021 billion yuan and a price decline of 1.55%, and E Fund SSE 50 ETF (510100.SH) has a market capitalization of 4.381 billion yuan and a price decline of 1.59% [4] 3.3 Theme ETFs - In the consumer electronics sector, Huaxia China Securities Consumption Electronics Theme ETF (159732.SZ) has a market capitalization of 4.23 billion yuan and a price decline of 5.38%, and Fullgoal CSI Consumption Electronics Theme ETF (561100.SH) has a market capitalization of 1.092 billion yuan and a price decline of 5.37% [6] - In the non - bank sector, Guotai CSI All - Index Securities Company ETF (512880.SH) has a market capitalization of 57.426 billion yuan and a price increase of 0.24%, and Huabao CSI All - Index Securities Company ETF (512000.SH) has a market capitalization of 36.827 billion yuan and a price increase of 0.17% [6] - In the bank sector, Huabao CSI Bank ETF (512800.SH) has a market capitalization of 14.648 billion yuan and a price increase of 0.39%, and Tianhong CSI Bank ETF (515290.SH) has a market capitalization of 5.969 billion yuan and a price increase of 0.43% [6]
机械设备行业跟踪:工程机械行业韧性足,内外销整体边际改善
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-10 14:13
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" compared to the market [1][118] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry shows strong resilience with improvements in both domestic and international sales [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a slight recovery in manufacturing, with the PMI index at 49.4% in August 2025, still in the contraction zone, but production PMI at 50.8% indicates expansion [2][6] - Fixed asset investment in China reached 326,111 billion yuan from January to August 2025, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.4% and manufacturing investment by 5.1% [14] Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is 49.4%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating marginal improvement but still in contraction [2][6] - The PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August 2025, ending an eight-month decline, while the CPI fell by 0.4% [11] - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 totaled 326,111 billion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year increase, with infrastructure investment up 5.4% and real estate investment down 13.2% [14] 2. China Engineering Machinery Sales Overview - From January to August 2025, excavator sales reached 154,181 units, a 17.2% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 21.5% [19][26] - Sales of various machinery types showed mixed results, with tower cranes down 34.5% and high-altitude work vehicles up 40.5% [27][41][100] - Overall, the sales of construction machinery reflect a structural divergence, with some categories like excavators and loaders performing well while others like tower cranes are struggling [51][56]
旅游行业跟踪报告:居民假期出游热情高涨,入境游持续火热
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-10 10:52
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1][60]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in civil aviation passenger traffic, with major airports seeing a notable rebound in international passenger flow [4][5]. - There is a sustained enthusiasm for domestic travel during holidays, with inbound tourism continuing to thrive [4][15]. - The service sector shows a positive trend, with service consumption and production indices on the rise [30][31]. Summary by Sections Civil Aviation Recovery - Civil aviation passenger volume is recovering, with August 2025 domestic passenger volume reaching approximately 75.36 million, a 3.3% increase from 2024 and a 23.1% increase from 2019 [8]. - The average domestic economy class ticket price in August 2025 was 694.1 yuan, down 1.0% from 2024 and 8.5% from 2019 [8]. - International passenger volume in August 2025 was about 7.47 million, a 15.3% increase from 2024 and a 6.5% increase from 2019 [10]. Domestic Travel Enthusiasm - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, an increase of 1.23 million from 2024, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up 1.08 billion yuan from 2024 [18]. - The average spending per trip during the holiday was 911 yuan, surpassing 2019 levels but slightly lower than 2023 [20]. - The average travel radius for tourists reached 212.66 kilometers, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing willingness to travel further [23]. Service Sector Performance - In August 2025, restaurant revenue grew by 2.1%, and retail sales increased by 3.6%, with the service production index rising by 5.6% [31]. - The service sector PMI remained above the threshold, recording 50.1% in September, indicating ongoing demand recovery [33]. - The total revenue of the service industry from January to July 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.4% [31]. Key Company Tracking - Ctrip's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 17.71 billion yuan, with a potential for valuation improvement compared to international OTA leaders [54]. - The report indicates a strong trend towards long-distance and cross-border travel, with significant growth in bookings for destinations beyond traditional hotspots [53]. - The average occupancy rate for star-rated hotels in Shanghai reached 71.90% in August 2025, recovering to 105.74% of 2019 levels [47].
麦高视野:ETF观察日志(2025-09-30)
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-10-09 02:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks daily frequency data of various ETFs, including wide - based and thematic ETFs, and presents information such as intraday market trends, management fees, tracking indices, RSI relative strength indicators, net subscriptions, trading volumes, and institutional holding ratios for each ETF [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Explanation - The table tracks daily frequency data of ETFs and is divided into "wide - based" and "thematic" sub - tables. The "wide - based" ETFs track mainstream wide - based indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, etc., while "thematic" ETFs track industry/style indices such as non - bank, dividend, and China concept Internet [2] - The RSI relative strength indicator is calculated based on the ratio of average gains to average losses over a 12 - day period. RSI>70 indicates an over - bought market, and RSI<30 indicates an over - sold market [2] - Net subscription is calculated using the formula NETBUY(T) = NAV(T)–NAV(T - 1)*(1 + R(T)), where NAV(T - 1) is the previous trading day's ETF net value [2] - T+0 indicates whether the T+0 trading method is supported. Institutional holding ratio is the estimated ratio from the latest annual or semi - annual reports of ETF funds, excluding the holding ratio of corresponding linked funds [3] 3.2 Wide - based ETFs - Multiple wide - based ETFs are listed, such as those tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, etc. For example, the Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300 ETF has a circulation market value of 425.344 billion yuan, an RSI of 67.84, and a net subscription of 10.77 billion yuan [4] 3.3 Thematic ETFs - **Consumer Electronics**: There are several consumer electronics ETFs, like the ChinaAMC China Securities Consumer Electronics Theme ETF with a circulation market value of 44.62 billion yuan and an RSI of 69.63 [6] - **Non - bank**: Non - bank financial ETFs include the Guotai CSI All - Index Securities Company ETF with a circulation market value of 553 billion yuan and an RSI of 53.18 [6] - **Dividend**: Dividend - related ETFs, such as the Huatai - Peregrine SSE Dividend ETF, have different performance indicators. This ETF has a circulation market value of 196.76 billion yuan and an RSI of 32.08 [6] - **New Energy**: New energy ETFs, like the ChinaAMC CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF, show different trends. It has a circulation market value of 59.86 billion yuan and an RSI of 83.71 [6] - **Chip Semiconductor**: Chip semiconductor ETFs, such as the ChinaAMC China Securities Semiconductor Chip ETF, have a circulation market value of 286.56 billion yuan and an RSI of 75.85 [6] - **Photovoltaic**: Photovoltaic ETFs, for example, the Huatai - Peregrine CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, have a circulation market value of 139.79 billion yuan and an RSI of 71.42 [6] - **Military Industry**: Military industry ETFs, such as the Guotai CSI Military Industry ETF, have a circulation market value of 141.29 billion yuan and an RSI of 58.98 [6] - **ESG**: ESG - related ETFs, like the E Fund CSI Shanghai Environment Exchange Carbon Neutrality ETF, have a circulation market value of 9.45 billion yuan and an RSI of 83.11 [6] - **Robot**: Robot - themed ETFs, such as the ChinaAMC CSI Robot ETF, have a circulation market value of 228.03 billion yuan and an RSI of 60.10 [6] - **Central and State - owned Enterprises**: Central and state - owned enterprise ETFs, such as the Bosera Central Enterprise Innovation - driven ETF, have a circulation market value of 34.89 billion yuan and an RSI of 55.92 [6] - **Artificial Intelligence**: Artificial intelligence ETFs, such as the E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF, have a circulation market value of 250.15 billion yuan and an RSI of 65.19 [6] - **Real Estate**: Real estate ETFs, such as the ChinaAMC CSI All - Index Real Estate ETF, have a circulation market value of 8.18 billion yuan and an RSI of 68.93 [6] - **Biomedical**: Biomedical ETFs, such as the Guotai CSI Biomedical ETF, have a circulation market value of 33.41 billion yuan and an RSI of 56.85 [6] - **China Concept Internet**: China concept Internet ETFs, such as the E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF, have a circulation market value of 434.49 billion yuan and an RSI of 70.55 [6] - **Resources**: Resource - related ETFs, such as the Southern CSI Shenwan Non - ferrous Metals ETF, have a circulation market value of 143.45 billion yuan and an RSI of 74.35 [6] - **Consumption**: Consumption - related ETFs, such as the Penghua CSI Wine ETF, have a circulation market value of 203.36 billion yuan and an RSI of 39.40 [6]
策略周报(20250922-20250926)-20250929
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-09-29 11:29
Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.5160% to 1.5538%, a rise of 3.78 basis points; DR007 rose from 1.5096% to 1.5313%, an increase of 2.17 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 widened by 1.61 basis points [9][13] - The net inflow of funds this week was 31.344 billion yuan, an increase of 81.749 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 104.51 billion yuan, while fund demand was 73.166 billion yuan. Specifically, fund supply decreased by 42.373 billion yuan, with net financing purchases down by 20.201 billion yuan and stock dividends down by 28.005 billion yuan [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index declined, with a weak overall market style and a continued pattern of sector differentiation. The number of declining sectors exceeded that of rising sectors, with the electronic sector showing the most significant increase of 3.67% [18][20] - The consumer services and retail trade sectors led the declines, with decreases of 6.71% and 3.92%, respectively [18][20] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Growth style had the largest increase of 1.58%, while consumer style experienced the largest decline of 2.18%. Growth style accounted for 61.88% of the average daily trading volume, making it the most active sector [3][21] - The average turnover rate for growth style remained the highest at 3.37%, while financial and stable styles had relatively low turnover rates [3][21]