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麦高视野:ETF观察日志(2025-12-10)
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-12-11 06:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks daily frequency data of various ETFs, classifies them into "broad - based" and "thematic" ETFs, and provides information such as intraday market trends, management fees, tracking indices, and trading data of different ETFs [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Explanation - The table tracks daily frequency data of ETFs and does not constitute investment advice [2]. - ETFs are divided into "broad - based" (tracking mainstream broad - based indices like CSI 300, CSI 500) and "thematic" (tracking industry/style indices like non - bank, dividend) [2]. - A fund pool is constructed by selecting one or more large - scale ETF funds in each type for analysis [2]. - The RSI relative strength indicator is calculated based on the ratio of average gains to average losses over a 12 - day period. RSI>70 indicates an over - bought market, and RSI<30 indicates an over - sold market [2]. - The intraday market trend is based on a 5 - minute intraday transaction price trend chart, with some data possibly missing [2]. - Net subscription (in billions of yuan) is calculated using a specific formula [2]. - Information about whether T + 0 trading is supported is provided [2]. - The institutional holding ratio is the estimated value from the latest annual or semi - annual reports of ETF funds, with the holding ratio of corresponding linked funds excluded, and there may be deviations [3]. - Empty values represent newly listed funds whose market data do not meet the calculation criteria or have not disclosed annual/semi - annual reports. Some QDIIs disclose net values late, and non - disclosed data are treated as empty values [3]. 3.2 Broad - based ETFs - Multiple broad - based ETFs are listed, including those tracking indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, etc. Information about their trading codes, market values, price changes, RSI, net subscriptions, trading volumes, management fees, institutional holding ratios, and T + 0 support is provided [4]. 3.3 Industry Thematic ETFs - Various industry thematic ETFs are presented, covering sectors like consumer electronics, non - bank, bank, dividend, new energy, chip semiconductor, photovoltaic, military, ESG, robot, central and state - owned enterprises, artificial intelligence, real estate, biomedicine, Chinese concept Internet, resources, and consumption. For each ETF, details such as trading code, market value, price change, RSI, net subscription, trading volume, management fee, institutional holding ratio, and T + 0 support are given [7].
麦高视野:ETF观察日志(2025-12-08)
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-12-09 08:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents daily tracking data of various ETFs, categorized into broad - based and thematic ETFs, including information on intraday trends, management fees, tracking indices, and other indicators, but no clear core viewpoints are summarized [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Data Explanation - The table tracks daily frequency data of ETFs and is divided into "broad - based" and "thematic" sub - tables. The "broad - based" ETFs track mainstream broad - based indices, and the "thematic" ETFs track industry/style indices [2] - The fund pool selects one or several large - scale ETFs in each type for analysis [2] - The calculation methods of RSI, net subscription, and other indicators are provided, and explanations for T + 0 trading and institutional holding ratio are given [2][3] 2. Broad - based ETFs - Multiple broad - based ETFs are listed, such as those tracking the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. Information on their trading codes, market capitalization, daily price changes, RSI, net subscriptions, trading volumes, institutional holding ratios, and T + 0 availability is presented [4] 3. Thematic ETFs - Various thematic ETFs are included, covering sectors like consumer electronics, non - banking, banking, dividends, new energy, chips, etc. Similar information to broad - based ETFs is provided for each thematic ETF [6]
策略周报(20251201-20251205)-20251208
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-12-08 08:31
Market Liquidity Overview - R007 decreased from 1.5222% to 1.4963%, a reduction of 2.59 basis points, while DR007 fell from 1.4668% to 1.4380%, down 2.88 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 increased by 0.29 basis points [9][11] - The net outflow of funds this week was 22.775 billion yuan, with net inflow increasing by 16.769 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 27.093 billion yuan, while demand was 49.867 billion yuan [11][12] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing the strongest performance, gaining 5.07%. Communication and defense industries also saw slight increases. The media and real estate sectors led the declines, falling by 3.59% and 2.13% respectively [16][18] - The defense industry had the highest overall congestion score as of the last trading day of the week [29] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most style indices increased, with cyclical and growth styles leading, rising by 2.17% and 0.66% respectively. The consumer style declined by 0.66% [31] - The average daily trading volume for the growth style was the highest at 57.39%, while its turnover rate was also the highest at 2.73% [31]
11月PMI数据点评:制造业PMI边际改善,复苏持续性仍需夯实
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-12-01 07:32
Manufacturing Sector - In November 2025, the Manufacturing PMI recorded 49.2%, a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.0%, reflecting stable production levels, with notable activity in food processing and non-ferrous metal industries[12] - New orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, suggesting marginal recovery in market demand[12] - The raw material inventory index remained low at 47.3%, indicating cautious inventory strategies among enterprises[12] - Small enterprises' PMI rose to 49.1%, the highest in six months, while large enterprises' PMI fell to 49.3%, indicating greater pressure on larger firms[17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in service sector activity[2] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing recorded 45.7%, indicating weak demand in the sector[22] - The business activity expectation index rose to 56.2%, suggesting optimism about medium to long-term market prospects driven by policy support and seasonal factors[3] Economic Outlook - Overall, the manufacturing sector remains below the 50% threshold, indicating ongoing contraction and economic downward pressure[5] - Rising raw material prices may increase cost pressures for mid and small-sized enterprises, necessitating caution regarding rapid cost increases[5] - Future recovery in manufacturing is anticipated to be supported by year-end policy implementations and improved external trade conditions[5]
ETF周报(20251124-20251128)-20251201
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-12-01 07:21
Market Overview - The performance of major indices during the sample period shows that the CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 had the highest returns of 4.99%, 4.54%, and 3.77% respectively [1][10] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top performers were Communication, Electronics, and Comprehensive, with returns of 8.70%, 6.05%, and 4.43% respectively, while Oil & Petrochemicals, Banking, and Coal had the lowest returns of -0.73%, -0.59%, and -0.51% [1][16] ETF Product Overview Market Performance - QDII ETFs had the best average performance with a weighted average return of 3.38%, while Bond ETFs had the worst performance with a return of -0.22% [20][21] - The CSI 2000 and US stock corresponding ETFs performed well with weighted average returns of 5.11% and 5.01% respectively, while the CSI 300 and MSCI China A-share concept ETFs performed poorly with returns of 1.53% and 1.87% [20] Fund Flow - Style ETFs saw the highest net inflow of 4.767 billion, while Industry Theme ETFs experienced the largest net outflow of -17.934 billion [2][25] - Hong Kong stock ETFs had the highest net inflow of 9.446 billion, while ChiNext-related ETFs had the lowest net inflow of -6.817 billion [2][25] - The Consumer sector ETFs had the highest net inflow of 0.530 billion, while Technology sector ETFs had the lowest net outflow of -11.843 billion [2][28] Trading Volume - Broad-based ETFs had the highest increase in average daily trading volume, with a change rate of 3.16%, while Commodity ETFs saw the largest decrease of -20.26% [33][34] - The CSI 1000 ETF had the highest increase in average daily trading volume change rate at 29.75%, while Japanese stock ETFs had the largest decrease at -40.25% [36] New Issuance and Listing - During the sample period, a total of 2 new funds were established and 8 funds were listed [3]
ETF周报(20251117-20251121)-20251124
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-11-24 14:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the ETF market from November 17 to November 21, 2025, including the secondary market overview, ETF product profiles (market performance, fund flows, trading volume, margin trading, and new issuance/listing), and new product approvals [1][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Secondary Market Overview - **Index Performance**: During the sample period, the South China Commodity Index, S&P 500, and SGE Gold 9999 had the top weekly returns, at -1.81%, -1.95%, and -3.17% respectively. The Nikkei 225 had the highest PE valuation quantile at 79.92%, while the S&P 500 had the lowest at 42.80% [1][10]. - **Industry Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, media, and food and beverage had the top returns, at -0.89%, -1.25%, and -1.44% respectively. Power equipment, comprehensive, and basic chemicals had the lowest returns, at -10.54%, -9.18%, and -7.47% respectively. The industries with the highest valuation quantiles were petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, and commercial and retail trade, at 95.88%, 94.24%, and 94.24% respectively [1][17]. 2. ETF Product Profiles 2.1 ETF Market Performance - **By Product Type**: Money market ETFs had the best average performance, with a weighted average return of 0.01%, while QDII ETFs had the worst, at -5.31%. - **By Listing Plate**: ETFs related to US stocks and MSCI China A-share concepts had better performance, with weighted average returns of -3.38% and -3.65% respectively. ETFs related to the CSI 2000 and ChiNext had worse performance, at -6.85% and -6.06% respectively. - **By Industry Sector**: Consumer sector ETFs had the best average performance, with a weighted average return of -2.61%, while biopharmaceutical sector ETFs had the worst, at -6.23%. - **By Theme**: Bank and dividend ETFs had better performance, with weighted average returns of -1.09% and -2.70% respectively. New energy and low-carbon environmental protection ETFs had the worst performance, at -10.17% and -8.50% respectively [22][25]. 2.2 ETF Fund Flows - **By ETF Category**: Broad-based ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 33.641 billion yuan, while style ETFs had the smallest, at 3.537 billion yuan. - **By Listing Plate**: Hong Kong stock ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 15.621 billion yuan, while MSCI China A-share concept ETFs had the smallest, at -181 million yuan. - **By Industry Sector**: Technology sector ETFs had the largest net inflow of funds, at 6.328 billion yuan, while consumer sector ETFs had the smallest, at -772 million yuan. - **By Theme**: Artificial intelligence and non-bank ETFs had the largest net inflows of funds, at 2.2 billion yuan and 2.177 billion yuan respectively. Bank and consumer electronics ETFs had the smallest, at -1.642 billion yuan and -64 million yuan respectively [2][29][31]. 2.3 ETF Trading Volume - **By ETF Category**: Style ETFs had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 19.05%, while money market ETFs had the largest decrease, at -13.04%. - **By Listing Plate**: The CSI 500 ETF had the largest increase in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 42.27%, while the ChiNext Innovation 50 had the largest decrease, at -17.98%. - **By Industry Sector**: The cyclical sector had the smallest decrease in the average daily trading volume change rate, at -4.23%, while the consumer sector had the largest decrease, at -18.82%. - **By Theme**: Non-bank and chip semiconductor ETFs had the largest average daily trading volumes in the past 5 days, at 16.317 billion yuan and 8.392 billion yuan respectively. Dividend and military industry ETFs had the largest increases in the average daily trading volume change rate, at 13.92% and 8.73% respectively. Consumer electronics and low-carbon environmental protection ETFs had the largest decreases, at -37.60% and -32.34% respectively [35][38][41][43]. 2.4 ETF Margin Trading During the sample period, the net margin purchase of all equity ETFs was 6.019 billion yuan, and the net short sale was -820 million yuan. The Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF had the largest net margin purchase, and the Harvest Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip ETF had the largest net short sale [2][49]. 2.5 ETF New Issuance and Listing During the sample period, 8 funds were established and 4 funds were listed. A total of 54 new fund products were reported this week, including 11 science and technology innovation theme ETFs. On November 21, the CSRC approved 16 hard technology products, including the first batch of 7 science and technology innovation and entrepreneurship artificial intelligence ETFs, 3 science and technology innovation board chip ETFs, 4 science and technology innovation board chip design theme ETFs, and 2 technology theme active equity funds [3][51][54].
麦高证券策略周报(20251117-20251121)-20251124
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-11-24 13:10
Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.4945% to 1.4952%, a rise of 0.07 basis points, while DR007 decreased from 1.4673% to 1.4408%, a drop of 2.65 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 widened by 2.72 basis points [9] - The net outflow of funds this week was 40.114 billion yuan, with net inflow decreasing by 23.562 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 53.787 billion yuan, while demand was 93.901 billion yuan [11] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - All sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index experienced declines, with the comprehensive sector showing the most significant drop of 9.47%. The power equipment and new energy, as well as basic chemicals sectors, also saw slight declines [16] - The defense industry received the highest net inflow of leveraged funds at 0.507 billion yuan, while the electronics sector experienced the most significant net outflow of 10.594 billion yuan [18] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - The style indices generally fell, with the cyclical and growth styles leading the decline at 6.02% and 5.73%, respectively. The growth style was the most active, accounting for 54.58% of the average daily trading volume [33] - The main funds in the style sectors showed a predominant trend of reduction, with the stable style seeing an increase of 0.378 billion yuan, while the growth style saw a reduction of 31.3 billion yuan [32]
麦高视野:ETF观察日志(2025-11-20)
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-11-21 06:01
- The report introduces the **RSI (Relative Strength Index)** as a quantitative factor. The construction idea is to measure the relative strength of price movements over a specific period to identify overbought or oversold market conditions. The formula is: $ RSI = 100 - \frac{100}{1 + RS} $, where $ RS $ is the ratio of the average gain to the average loss over a 12-day period. An RSI > 70 indicates an overbought market, while RSI < 30 indicates an oversold market[2] - Another quantitative factor mentioned is **Net Purchase (NETBUY)**, which measures the net inflow or outflow of funds for ETFs. The formula is: $ NETBUY(T) = NAV(T) - NAV(T-1) \times (1 + R(T)) $, where $ NAV(T) $ is the net asset value on day $ T $, $ NAV(T-1) $ is the net asset value on the previous day, and $ R(T) $ is the return on day $ T $[2] - The report also tracks **Institutional Holdings** as a factor, which is derived from the latest annual or semi-annual reports of ETFs, excluding holdings by linked funds. This factor provides an estimate of institutional participation in the ETF[3] - The report includes **T+0 Trading** as a feature for certain ETFs, indicating whether same-day buy-and-sell transactions are allowed[2] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of ETF performance across various indices, including **broad-based indices** (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) and **thematic indices** (e.g., semiconductor, renewable energy, artificial intelligence). Performance metrics include RSI, net purchase, and institutional holdings[4] - The **RSI values** for ETFs tracking broad-based indices range from 35.83 to 52.12, with thematic ETFs showing a wider range, such as 30.25 for robotics and 63.73 for banking[4] - **Net purchase values** vary significantly, with some ETFs showing large outflows (e.g., -10.82 billion for Nasdaq 100 ETFs) and others showing inflows (e.g., 10.01 billion for Hang Seng Technology ETFs)[4] - **Institutional holdings** also vary widely, with some ETFs having over 90% institutional participation (e.g., CSI 800 ETFs) and others below 20% (e.g., certain thematic ETFs like robotics)[4]
麦高视野:ETF观察日志(2025-11-19)
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-11-20 05:45
- The report includes the construction of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) factor, which is calculated using the formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS) $, where RS represents the ratio of average gains to average losses over a 12-day period. RSI values above 70 indicate an overbought market, while values below 30 suggest an oversold market [2] - The report also introduces the calculation of net subscription (NETBUY), defined as $ NETBUY(T) = NAV(T) - NAV(T-1) * (1 + R(T)) $, where NETBUY(T) represents the net subscription amount, NAV(T) is the ETF's net asset value on day T, and R(T) is the return on day T [2] - The report tracks various ETFs categorized into "Broad-based" and "Thematic" indices, such as CSI 300, CSI 500, and industry-specific indices like non-bank financials, dividends, and China internet sectors. It provides daily performance metrics, including RSI values, net subscription amounts, and institutional holding percentages [2][4][7] - The RSI factor is evaluated as a useful indicator for identifying market conditions, such as overbought or oversold states, aiding in short-term trading decisions [2] - The net subscription metric is assessed as a valuable measure for understanding fund flows and investor sentiment towards specific ETFs [2] - RSI values for various ETFs range from 11.05 to 77.25, reflecting diverse market conditions across different indices and sectors [4][7] - Net subscription values vary significantly, with some ETFs showing positive inflows while others exhibit outflows, indicating mixed investor sentiment across different funds [4][7]
携程集团-S(09961):国际业务持续强劲,银发和年轻客群细分市场表现亮眼
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-11-19 07:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 648.83 HKD, based on expected strong performance in the upcoming months [5]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group's Q3 2025 performance shows robust growth driven by strong travel demand, with total revenue reaching 18.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.9 billion RMB, and adjusted EBITDA was 6.3 billion RMB [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, supported by strong outbound travel and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, a 12% increase, driven by robust international flight bookings. Vacation revenue was 1.6 billion RMB, growing 3%, primarily due to the expansion of international product lines. Business travel management revenue was 756 million RMB, up 15% as more companies adopted these services [2]. International Business Performance - Ctrip's international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest contributor. All regions experienced growth exceeding 50%, with mobile bookings accounting for over 70% of total bookings. Inbound travel bookings more than doubled, with significant growth from the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the US. Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased nearly 20%, reaching 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2]. Demographic Trends - There is a strong demand from both senior and young travelers, indicating a trend of intergenerational diversity. The number of users in Ctrip's "Old Friends Club" grew over 70%, with affluent senior travelers focusing on quality travel experiences. Ctrip is customizing more products and services for this demographic. Young travelers are increasingly drawn to experience-driven travel, with revenues from this segment seeing triple-digit growth [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The report anticipates continued enthusiasm for leisure travel, projecting revenues of 61.56 billion RMB, 70.78 billion RMB, and 80.36 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.0%, and 13.5%. Net profits are expected to be 31.92 billion RMB, 20.58 billion RMB, and 23.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of 87.0%, -35.5%, and 15.9% respectively. The report highlights Ctrip's significant domestic business advantages and the potential for international business to contribute additional growth [2][4].