Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the aviation leasing industry [1] Core Insights - The aviation leasing industry is entering a high-growth cycle driven by stable passenger demand and an accelerated replacement of aging aircraft [7][8] - Supply chain issues continue to limit aircraft manufacturers' delivery capabilities, with shortages expected to persist until 2030 [15][18] - Rental rates for aircraft are on the rise, with significant increases noted for various aircraft models [22] - The upcoming interest rate cuts may marginally improve financing costs for leasing companies, although high costs are expected to persist in the short term due to existing debt [26][28] - The industry is experiencing consolidation, with a concentration of orders among leading companies, indicating an increase in market concentration [29] Summary by Sections 1. Asset Side: Stable Growth in Airline Demand and Supply Gap Driving Rent Increases - Passenger demand is steadily increasing, having returned to 2019 levels, with a global passenger volume growth of 8% year-on-year as of July 2024 [8][10] - Approximately 16% of active aircraft are over 20 years old and eligible for retirement, which could significantly reduce capacity in regions like North America and Europe if these aircraft are retired [12][13] 2. Supply Side: Ongoing Supply Chain Issues Leading to Limited Production Capacity - Aircraft manufacturers are facing declining delivery capabilities, with Airbus adjusting its 2024 delivery forecast from 800 to approximately 770 aircraft [15] - Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, are expected to prolong the supply shortage until at least 2030 [18] 3. Pricing: Continuous Increase in Aircraft Rental Rates - As of July 2024, rental rates for various aircraft types have increased significantly, with A320neo and 737MAX rentals rising by 15% and 18% respectively, and A330-300 rentals increasing by 50% [22][23] 4. Liability Side: Upcoming Interest Rate Cuts Expected to Improve Financing Costs Marginally - The market anticipates a reduction in interest rates by approximately 99 basis points in 2024, with further cuts expected in 2025 [26][28] - Despite potential improvements, the overall cost of debt for leasing companies is expected to remain high in 2024 due to existing liabilities [26] 5. Competitive Landscape: Frequent Restructuring Events and Increasing Industry Concentration - The aviation leasing market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding a market share of 34.7% [29][30] - Major acquisitions, such as AerCap's purchase of GECAS, have contributed to increased market concentration [29]

深 度 研 究 报 告 ＃assAuthor＃ 公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |--------------------|------------| | | | | 市场数据日期 | 2024-09-06 | | 收盘价（元） | 132.89 | | 总股本（百万股） | 151.43 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 151.43 | | 净资产（百万元） | 5438.32 | | 总资产（百万元） | 12339.9 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 35.91 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证汽车】春风动力 24H1 业 绩点评：24Q2 业绩超预期，两 轮车表现靓丽》2024-08-16 《【兴证汽车】春风动力 2023 年 报及 2024 一季报点评：公司经 营边际改善，24Q1 业绩超预期》 2024-04-17 《【兴证汽车 戴畅团队】春风动 力 2023 年三季报点评：2023Q3 盈利能力改善，产品持续升级》 2023-11-04 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 董晓彬 dongxiaobin@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080001 ...

公 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------| | | | | ＃市场 ma 数 rk 据 etData ＃ | | | 日期 | 2024/9/6 | | 收盘价（元） | 5.39 | | 总股本（百万股） | 10,228 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 10,228 | | 净资产（百万元） | 71,854 | | 总资产（百万元） | 222,220 | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.03 | | | | caiyi@xyzq.com.cn S0190518030002 司总 评 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 火电 ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 ( ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ 维持 ） ＃dyCompany＃ 华电国际 （ 600027 ） 000009 ＃title＃ 煤价下行贡献主要利润增量，24Q2 经营净现金流同比+104.30% ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 9 月 9 日 投资要点 ＃sum事ma件ry＃：华电国际发布 2024 年中报，报告期内公司合 ...

行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

＃title＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 零售 ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 (维持 ） 最新市内免税店政策影响几何 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 09 月 09 日 行 业 点 评 报 告 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.26-08.30）市内免税店 政策重磅落地，薇诺娜敏感肌 产品卷到东南亚》 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.19-08.23）：7 月海南免 税降幅略有走扩，《黑神话：悟 空》出世带动景点热度攀升》 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.05-08.09）：暑期机酒价 格同比下降，欧莱雅加码皮肤科 学美容赛道》 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 代凯燕 daiky@xyzq.com.cn S0190519050001 ＃研究助理： assAuthor＃ 彭心瑶 pengxinyao@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点 ＃summary＃ l 市内免税店政策新增对出境中国旅客放开，为免税运营商提供更多发展空 间。在本次市内免税店政策颁布前，我国免税渠道主要有离岛免 ...

行 ＃title＃ 北 研 行 बार 周报 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 重点公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 重点公司 评级 | | | | | | 美的集团 增持 | | | | | | 海尔智家 买入 | | | | | | 石头科技 增持 | | | | | | 海信视像 增持 | | | | | | 新宝股份 增持 | | | | | | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 | | | | | ＃相关 rel | 报 ate 告 dReport ＃ 《【兴证家电】家电行业 24 中报总结：板块内部分化，白电 韧性充足》20 ...

行 北 研究 行业 周 阅 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|----------|----------------|-------| | ＃ inve 中 stSu 性 ggestion ＃ ( | 维持 ) | ＃ title ＃ \n | | | ＃相 r 关 el 报 ate 告 dReport ＃ | | 投资要点 | | | 《 2024 年房地产行业中期策略 报 告 ： 渐 行 渐 近 的 2024-6-25 | 拐 点 》 | | | | ＃ emailAuthor ＃ 分析师： | | | | | 靳璐瑜 | | | | | jinluyu@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080003 | | | | | 阎常铭 | | | | | yanchangming@xyzq.com.cn | | | | | S0190514110001 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

行 ＃title＃ zhaoyuanji@xyzq.com.cn 北 研 行 बार 据 究 周 ＃inve推stSu荐ggestion＃ ( ＃ investS | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|-------| | | onChan | | | 重点公司 | ge ＃ | | | 重点公司 | 评级 | | | 金诚信 | 增持 | | | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | | | | | | 铜陵有色 | 增持 | | | 中国铝业 神火股份 | 增持 增持 | | | | | | | 天山铝业 | 增持 | | | 驰宏锌锗 | 增持 | | | | | | | 锡业股份 | 增持 | | | | | | | | | | | 山金国际 | 增持 | | | | | | | 山东黄金 | 增持 | | | | | | | 赤峰黄金 | 增持 | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.862 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.21%, and a net profit of 6.357 billion yuan, up 23.77% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 10.756 billion yuan, a 4.02% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.394 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.62% year-on-year growth [5] - The company is expected to benefit from a flexible pricing mechanism for tickets, which has been in place since December 2020, allowing for price adjustments based on market conditions [9][10] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of September 5, 2024, was 5.48 yuan, with a total share capital of 49,106 million shares and net assets of 196.106 billion yuan [3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a gross profit of 9.886 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 47.39%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s financial expenses decreased by 27.54% year-on-year to 0.931 billion yuan due to cash repayment of existing loans [9] Future Outlook - The company projects net profits of 13.508 billion yuan, 14.846 billion yuan, and 15.791 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.28, 0.30, and 0.32 yuan [10] - The report highlights a commitment to a 50% dividend payout ratio and plans for share buybacks, indicating a strong return to shareholders [9][10]