＃title＃ 行 业 周 报 ＃assAuthor＃ | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------| | | | | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 东方雨虹 | 增持 | | 三棵树 | 增持 | | 华新水泥 | 增持 | | 伟星新材 | 增持 | | 海螺水泥 | 增持 | | 坚朗五金 | 增持 | | 兔宝宝 | 增持 | | 中国巨石 | 增持 | | 北新建材 | 增持 | | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 | | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证建材】周观点：多地 水泥延续涨势，关注建材龙头 业绩改善》2024-10-27 《【兴证建材】周观点：水泥 价格延续涨势，政策再加码利 好建材基本面修复》2024-10- 20 《【兴证建材】周观点：水泥 价格继续推涨，关注基建需求 边际改善》2024-10-13 分析师： 季贤东 jixiandong@xyzq.com.cn S0190522100003 ＃ investSuggestion ＃ 推荐 （维持） 水泥价格延续上行，关注产能置换新规与供给出清空间 ＃c ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the environmental protection industry [2]. Core Insights - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a valuation re-evaluation, with a focus on "low valuation, high dividend" stocks amidst a turbulent market environment [24]. - New growth opportunities are emerging in the environmental sector, particularly in areas like semiconductor waste gas treatment, driven by domestic industrial trends [26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of operational stability and the potential for companies to explore new business lines for growth [27]. Summary by Sections Important Data Tracking - From October 28 to November 1, 2024, the national carbon market saw a trading volume of 885,900 tons, a decrease of 32.77% compared to the previous period [9]. - The closing price for carbon emission allowances was 104.43 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.17% from the previous period [9]. Market Performance - During the period from October 28 to November 1, 2024, the A-share environmental index increased by 0.85%, while the H-share environmental index decreased by 1.80% [17]. - The A-share environmental sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio was reported at 18 times as of November 1, 2024 [17]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines to promote renewable energy substitution, emphasizing biomass power generation and the treatment of agricultural waste [22]. - Shandong Province has initiated a plan to establish a comprehensive waste recycling system by 2025, aiming for a 60% utilization rate of major solid waste [22]. Key Company Announcements - Qingda Environmental reported a revenue of 769 million CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.11% [23]. - Shengjian Technology reported a revenue of 994 million CNY for the same period, a decline of 7.34% year-on-year [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and those that can generate excess profits, particularly in the water treatment and solid waste management sectors [27]. - Recommended companies include Hongcheng Environment, Huanlan Environment, and Weiming Environmental for solid waste treatment and resource utilization [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, with specific companies recommended for investment including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hebei Resources, Jiuli Special Materials, and Yongjin Co. [2][5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies in China are showing a clear shift, which is expected to support steel prices. The report anticipates that the prices of black commodities will have limited downside risk due to these macro factors, and as fiscal policies are implemented, steel prices are likely to rise, making it difficult for them to fall. [2][5] - The report notes that the current profitability of the steel industry is at a low point, and with the combination of macroeconomic stimulus and supply-side contraction, there is significant upward potential for the sector's performance. [2][5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The steel sector saw a rise of 4.65%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.49 percentage points [8]. - The average price of rebar in major cities was reported as follows: Shanghai at 3,544 CNY/ton, Guangzhou at 3,756 CNY/ton, and Beijing at 3,580 CNY/ton, with weekly changes noted [9]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Steel Price and Inventory Trends - National steel prices have rebounded overall, while iron ore inventories have increased. The average iron ore inventory at 45 ports rose, indicating a supply-side adjustment [11]. - The report indicates that the average daily pig iron production was 235.47 million tons, with a slight decrease noted [1]. 2.2 Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased to 82.44%, with a total production of 867.3 million tons of major steel products, reflecting a decrease of 13.3 million tons week-on-week [3][20]. - The report also highlights that the demand for construction steel remains stable, with an average transaction volume of 116,700 tons [22]. 3. Industry Dynamics 3.1 Key Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported a 0.9% year-on-year increase in new housing contract signings in October, marking the first growth after 15 months of decline [24]. - Major steel companies have announced maintenance schedules, impacting production levels temporarily [24]. 3.2 Company Announcements - Baotou Steel reported a total revenue of 14.657 billion CNY for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.57%, with a net profit loss of 625 million CNY [25]. - Xining Special Steel reported a revenue of 1.419 billion CNY for Q3 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 101.67% [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a favorable outlook due to recent financial and fiscal policy measures [4][15]. Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing an upward trend in performance, with improved earnings and asset quality, despite ongoing pressure on net interest margins [5][8]. - Recent policy measures from the central bank, including the introduction of a new pricing mechanism for commercial housing loans, are expected to enhance liquidity and support the banking sector [3][20]. - The report highlights specific banks as key investment opportunities based on their performance and market positioning [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - The CITIC Bank Index decreased by 1.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.13 percentage points, with notable performances from Changsha Bank (+4.45%), Qilu Bank (+4.22%), and Chongqing Bank (+3.79%) [8]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, listed banks reported a revenue decline of 1.0% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 1.4%, driven by stable asset expansion and improved investment income [5][8]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry Dynamics - The People's Bank of China has initiated a buyout reverse repurchase operation tool to maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system, which will be conducted monthly with a maximum term of one year [11][16]. - Major banks are implementing a new pricing mechanism for commercial housing loans, allowing for adjustments in the pricing cycle and interest rate add-ons [3][20]. 2.2 Company Dynamics - Notable performance metrics for various banks include: - Ningbo Bank reported a net profit of 20.707 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.02% [22]. - Agricultural Bank achieved a net profit of 215.262 billion yuan, a 3.60% increase compared to the previous year [24]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank's net profit for the first three quarters was 270.475 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.20% growth [22].

＃assAuthor＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 ＃title＃ 10 月百强房企销售点评："止跌回稳"下， 单月同比回正 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 11 月 1 日 投资要点 ＃事件： summary＃ 10 月 31 日，克而瑞发布百强房企销售榜单。10 月百强房企全口径销售金 额环比+70.1%，同比+5.4%（9 月同比-38.1%），2024 年 1-10 月累计同比34.8%。 点评： 10 月单月，百强房企销售同比转正，年内次高，也是自 23 年 6 月以来 17 个月后首次转正。10 月百强销售金额达到 4654 亿元，环比大幅增长 70.1%， 同比增长 5.4%，是 17 个月以来首次单月同比转正。绝对值来看，达到年 内次高（仅次于今年 6 月）。10 月表现远超过往季节性（17 年以来 10 月环 比平均-2%）。 房企层面来看，保持拿地能力的房企，销售表现更强。比如，10 月单月， 中国海外发展销售金额同比+65.8%、越秀地产+48.1%、建发房产+43.9%、 华发股份+30.2%、保利发展+27.8%、滨江集团+18.9%、华 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategies of a bank, referred to as "the company," during the first three quarters of the year. Key Points Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 164.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.81% [1] - Net interest income grew by 2.39% due to effective interest margin management and stable growth in real assets [1] - The company achieved a profit of 118.91 billion yuan, up 3.74% year-on-year [2] - The customer base expanded to over 108 million, with significant growth in VIP and high-potential clients [2] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.08%, stable compared to the previous half-year [3] - The company has strengthened risk management, leading to a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio to 233.5% [3] - The company reported a slight increase in the attention loan ratio to 1.77% due to economic slowdown affecting customer repayment capabilities [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its strategic execution capabilities and optimizing its asset-liability structure [4] - The company aims to increase low-cost deposit absorption while reducing high-cost deposits, achieving a deposit interest rate of 2.03%, down 23 basis points year-on-year [4] - The company has made significant investments in green finance, with green loan financing reaching 2.18 trillion yuan, a 15.34% increase from the previous year [4] Risk Management - The company is actively addressing potential risks in real estate and local government debt, implementing measures to mitigate these risks [8][9] - The company has engaged in various strategies to manage real estate project risks, including asset replacement and restructuring [8][9] Digital Transformation - The company is enhancing its digital capabilities, with a significant increase in mobile banking users and transaction activity [10] - The digital operating system has been upgraded to improve efficiency and risk management [10] Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure on net interest margins due to recent monetary policy adjustments, but expects to maintain a net interest margin above 1.8% [19] - The company is preparing for potential challenges in credit quality due to economic conditions but remains optimistic about managing these risks effectively [22] Customer Engagement - The company has improved its customer service capabilities, focusing on a segmented approach to client management [6] - The company has seen a rise in active clients and is expanding its wealth management services [6] Regulatory Environment - The company is adapting to new regulatory changes and is focused on maintaining compliance while optimizing its operations [28] Conclusion - The company is committed to enhancing its core capabilities, managing risks effectively, and leveraging digital transformation to drive growth and maintain asset quality in a challenging economic environment [11]

我们邀请了新业证券的国关班总来参加这次交流我们首先请班总介绍一下公司最新的三级报的经营情况有请班总好的谢谢尊敬的各位投资者朋友古今飞影大家下午好非常高兴能够有机会在此跟各位进行一个沟通交流那下面我 就为大家简要介绍一下公司近年来的一些发展战略和今年的经营概况今年来公司致力于打造一流证券金融集团然后为境内外各类客户提供全方位的综合金融服务公司是持续完善以客户为中心的财富管理与大机构业务的双轮驱动业务体系并在此基础上能强化大机构业务 与大财富业务的双向赋能推动实现专业优势与资源秉赋的深层次融通并且我们分公司也是加速推进战略转型工作持续提升区域平台的价值公司高度重视区域综合经营平台的战略重要性强调自上而下赋能分公司做大做强在合规的前提下进一步推动 业务承担职责下放分公司客户和人才等业务资源也下承分公司集团的业务协同也在逐步的进一步深化一体化性管理水平也是在全面提升公司持续强化集团协同顶层机制的建设持续营造集团内高效协同环境聚焦核心主业突出重点 不断的优化协同的标准注重协同提示增效然后整个业务层面的话咱们管理业务方面是聚焦做好数据金融的大文章推进以客户为中心平台为载体数字为引擎的数字化建设有效推进分层分类的咱们管理客 ...

＃title＃ ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《渐行渐近系列报告一：居 民杠杆率不提升条件下的地 产长期复苏》2024-05-26 《渐行渐近报告二：收入和 房价关系》2024-06-25 1998 年房改至 2020 年，核心逻辑是居民杠杆率变化和房价的循环。核心逻辑要给 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 王沁雯 间趋势判断会有误差。 wangqinwen@xyzq.com.cn S0190523040001 2020 年以后，核心逻辑是去杠杆。在其它因素无特别大变化情况下，非常利落实 现地产去杠杆，最终效果几乎超出所有预期。如果此期间没有认识到核心逻辑变化 阎常铭 并且给予最高判断权重，仍然牵挂一些此阶段非核心逻辑，就会有误差。 yanchangming@xyzq.com.cn S0190514110001 在每一个阶段，既要研究核心逻辑实现方式，又要研究核心逻辑实现有没有阻碍。 政策本身是结果导向的，总会以我们想象得到或者想象不到的方式实现。我们此前 渐行渐近系列报告以及此前多个行业深度报告有很多案例表明：当前微观层面感 知的一些阻碍，在未来宏观层面大概率不是阻碍，可能不会阻挡核心逻辑的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cinema line sector, particularly for the 2025 film market, anticipating a historical high in box office performance during the Spring Festival period [1][14]. Core Insights - The 2024 film market is facing a decline in box office revenue due to a lack of major films, with a total domestic box office of 346.3 billion yuan from January to September, a decrease of 109.5 billion yuan year-on-year [2][14]. - The importance of the Spring Festival period has increased, with top films contributing significantly to box office revenue. In 2022, the Spring Festival box office accounted for over 20% of the annual total, while in 2023 it dropped to 12.3% [1][7]. - There is a rich reserve of quality films expected for 2025, with at least three major sequels anticipated, including "Nezha 2" and "Detective Chinatown 4," which are expected to drive a strong rebound in box office performance [7][14]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Film Market Overview - The 2024 film market is characterized by a scarcity of major films, with no films surpassing 4 billion yuan in box office revenue, and only three films in the 3-4 billion yuan range [2][14]. - The domestic box office for the first nine months of 2024 is reported at 346.3 billion yuan, which is only higher than the years 2020 and 2022 [2][14]. 2. 2025 Film Market Expectations - The report highlights a robust pipeline of films for 2025, with significant sequels expected to be released, which could enhance box office performance [7][14]. - Major films such as "Nezha 2" and "Detective Chinatown 4" are anticipated to contribute to a strong box office rebound [7][14]. 3. Importance of the Spring Festival - The Spring Festival period has become increasingly significant for box office performance, with top films accounting for approximately 80% of the total box office during this period from 2018 to 2023 [1][7]. - The upcoming film festivals and the introduction of consumer vouchers are expected to stimulate offline movie consumption [13][14]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cinema line stocks such as Wanda Film and Shanghai Film, and suggests paying attention to companies with strong content reserves like Light Media and Bona Film [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for China Telecom [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 391.97 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.30 billion yuan, up 8.11% year-on-year [2] - The traditional business's ARPU remains stable, while the smart home business shows significant growth, driven by the dual engines of traditional and digital business [2] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a target to increase the dividend payout ratio to over 75% within three years, highlighting its long-term value [2] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 125.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, and a net profit of 7.49 billion yuan, up 7.76% year-on-year [2] - The mobile user base increased by 14.90 million to 423 million, with 5G users growing by 26.40 million to 345 million, achieving a penetration rate of 81.6% [2] - The fixed broadband user base increased by 6.10 million to 196 million, with a stable ARPU of 47.8 yuan [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 33.02 billion, 35.78 billion, and 38.85 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.3, 16.9, and 15.5 based on the closing price on October 23 [2][4]