| --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------| | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 11 日 | | | | | | | | 行业：通信 | | | | 增持 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | —— | 云厂商资本开支上行，英伟达数据中心硬件迭代 通信光模块行业专题报告 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 分析师：应豪 | | | | E-mail: yinghao@yongxingsec.com SAC 编号： S1760524050002 | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Ningbo Water Meter (Group) Co Ltd with a "Buy" rating, citing its leading position in the water meter industry and growth potential in smart water services [2] Core Views - The company is a leading water meter manufacturer with over 60 years of experience, offering a wide range of products including mechanical and smart water meters, serving over 2,300 domestic water companies and exporting to 80+ countries [1] - Despite macroeconomic challenges, the company's revenue and net profit growth rebounded in 2023, driven by market recovery [1] - The domestic water meter market is expected to reach 238 million units and 25.4 billion yuan in sales by 2027, with smart water meters becoming a key growth driver [1] - The company is actively developing smart water services as its second growth curve, leveraging its deep industry expertise and technological capabilities [1] Financial Analysis - Revenue and net profit growth slowed after 2019 due to macroeconomic factors but showed signs of recovery in 2023 [1] - Smart water meters accounted for 60% of revenue in 2023, with higher gross margins than mechanical meters, though margins have been under pressure due to competition [37] - The company's gross and net profit margins stabilized in 2023 after a period of decline [39] - Accounts receivable days increased due to the rise in smart meter sales and macroeconomic impacts, but the company has implemented stricter controls to manage this [41] Industry Overview - The domestic water meter market is projected to grow steadily, with demand reaching 238 million units by 2027 [43] - Traditional mechanical water meters are being replaced by smart water meters, driven by advancements in wireless communication and ultrasonic technologies [44][50] - Smart water meter penetration in China increased from 23% in 2017 to 40% in 2021, with further growth expected as urbanization and smart city initiatives accelerate [53] - The global smart water services market is forecasted to reach $26 billion by 2027, with China's market also expanding rapidly [64][66] Key Highlights - The company is a leader in the water meter industry, with a strong R&D focus and participation in drafting industry standards [15] - It has a well-established sales network, serving over 2,300 domestic water companies and exporting to 80+ countries [60] - The company is leveraging its expertise to develop smart water services, including DMA metering, pipeline monitoring, and non-excavation repair solutions [63] - Despite macroeconomic headwinds, the water meter industry is expected to benefit from government policies and infrastructure investments [17][71] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow to 1.85 billion yuan in 2024, 2.13 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.45 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit reaching 133 million yuan, 142 million yuan, and 159 million yuan, respectively [93] - The company's PE ratio is 14x for 2024 and 13x for 2025, higher than the industry average, reflecting its leading position and growth potential in smart water services [93]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its fundamentals and expected performance relative to market benchmarks [5][52]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the plastic dining industry, with a diversified product portfolio that supports growth. It has established a strong position in the global plastic dining utensils manufacturing sector, serving major clients like Amazon and IKEA. The company is expected to see a rebound in performance starting in 2024, with a projected 37% year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of 2024 [1][2][13]. - The plastic products industry is anticipated to undergo consolidation, with increasing demand for biodegradable products. Stricter environmental regulations and trade tensions are expected to drive smaller, less efficient players out of the market, leading to higher industry concentration. The global market for biodegradable plastics is projected to triple by 2030, benefiting leading companies with advanced technologies and quality clients [1][2][24][30]. - The company leverages technological advancements and channel advantages to facilitate scale expansion. It has made significant strides in research and development, increasing its product variety from 703 to 1,156 types between 2018 and 2021. The company has also achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% in production capacity from 2019 to 2023 [1][2][33]. - The company has established deep relationships with high-quality clients, with strong growth expected in both domestic and international sales. Domestic revenue has grown at a CAGR of around 61% from 2019 to 2023, increasing its domestic revenue share from 20% in 2019 to 42% in 2023. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of dining and tea brands, as well as the diversification of its product offerings [1][2][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Growth - The company is recognized as a leading high-end plastic products manufacturer, with a focus on biodegradable materials and a commitment to providing a wide range of products to global customers [1][13]. - The company has expanded its product range and client base significantly, establishing partnerships with major retailers and food service companies [1][16]. 2. Industry Consolidation and Biodegradable Demand - The plastic products industry is expected to see increased concentration as smaller players exit the market due to stricter regulations and trade issues [24][26]. - The demand for biodegradable products is projected to grow significantly, driven by global environmental policies [27][30]. 3. Technological and Channel Advantages - The company emphasizes R&D, achieving breakthroughs in production automation and biodegradable materials, which enhances its product diversity [31][33]. - The company has expanded its production capacity and made strategic acquisitions to strengthen its market position [35][37]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to experience substantial profit growth, with net profits projected to reach 1.75 billion, 2.13 billion, and 2.63 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, respectively [2][44]. - The report highlights the strong growth potential in both domestic and international markets, supported by the company's established client relationships and product offerings [2][42].

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