——存储芯片周度跟踪（2025.05.12-2025.05.16） ◼ 核心观点 电子 行业研究/行业周报 NAND：三星电子正开发结合 NAND 的"混合 CXL"模块。根据 DRAMexchange，上周（20250512-0516）NAND 颗粒 22 个品类现货 价格环比涨跌幅区间为-0.45%至 2.78%，平均涨跌幅为 0.64%。其中 13 个料号价格持平，8 个料号价格上涨，1 个料号价格下跌。根据科 创板日报报道，三星电子正在开发将 NAND 闪存与 Compute Express Link（CXL）模块相结合的产品，目标在 2027 年实现商业化。 三星电子开发混合 CXL 模块，LPDDR4X 现货涨价 DRAM：2025 年一季度全球 DRAM 市场规模同比增长 42.5%至 267.29 亿美元 。 根 据 DRAMexchange， 上 周 （20250512-0516） DRAM 18个品类现货价格环比涨跌幅区间为-0.29%至 7.51%，平均涨 跌幅为 3.29%。上周 17 个料号呈上涨趋势，1 个料号呈下降趋势，0 个料号价格持平。根据 CFM闪存市场报道，2025年一季 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [4] Core Viewpoints - In April, China's total retail sales reached 3.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating a slight decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 3.35 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting the resilience of China's industrial supply chain and the vast potential of the domestic market [1] - E-commerce penetration is slowing, while offline convenience stores and specialty stores are performing well, with retail sales growth of 9.1% for convenience stores and 6.4% for specialty stores in the first four months [2] - The consumption upgrade policy is showing effects, particularly in the gold and jewelry sector, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April [3] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In April, the retail sales of essential goods such as grain and oil increased by 14.0%, while optional consumption categories showed mixed results, with home appliances and furniture growing by 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [3][17] - The overall retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to March [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. The recovery of gold and jewelry sales driven by the Spring Festival effect and geopolitical risks increasing demand for safe-haven assets, with companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng recommended for attention [4] 2. The gradual recovery of offline sales as domestic consumption policies take effect, with traditional supermarkets undergoing reforms, recommending companies like Gao Xin Retail and Yonghui Supermarket [4] 3. The optimization of competition in the e-commerce sector, with a focus on major platforms like Pinduoduo and Alibaba [4]

非银金融 行业研究/行业点评 并购重组市场活跃度有望显著提升 ——证监会修改《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》点评 ◼ 事件： 5 月 16 日，中国证监会发布《关于修改＜上市公司重大资产重组管理 办法＞的决定》（以下简称《重组办法》）。 ◼ 核心观点 （1）本次对资产重组政策修改主要为落实新"国九条"要求和"并购 六条"相关举措。 新"国九条"提出，加大并购重组改革力度，多措并举活跃并购重组 市场。2024 年 9 月，发布《中国证监会关于深化上市公司并购重组市 场改革的意见》（简称《并购六条》），提出了助力新质生产力发展、加 大产业整合支持力度、提升监管包容度、提高支付灵活性和审核效率、 提升中介机构服务水平、依法加强监管等六方面的举措。其中，部分 举措需要配套修改《重组办法》予以落实。此外，新《公司法》于 2024 年 7 月 1 日正式施行，《重组办法》部分内容需要根据新法进行适应 性调整。 （2）本次对《重组办法》的修改主要包括以下内容： ①建立重组股份对价分期支付机制。将申请一次注册、分期发行股份 购买资产的注册决定有效期延长至 48 个月。 ②提高对财务状况变化、同业竞争和关联交易监管的包容度。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [6] Core Views - The agricultural sector is seen as a stable consumer goods category with strong demand and policy support, making it a potential safe haven for funds in a complex external environment [4] - The current prices of major meat proteins and agricultural products are in a bottoming phase, with quality leading companies expected to achieve stable growth in performance [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - For the week of May 12-16, 2025, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.07 percentage points, with the Shenwan Agricultural Index closing at 2,620.55, up 0.05% [15][17] - Among sub-sectors, the animal health sector rose by 7.36%, while feed and fishery sectors increased by 2.04% and 0.91% respectively; however, agricultural processing, breeding, and planting sectors saw declines of 0.90%, 0.96%, and 1.29% respectively [15][17] Key Industry Data Swine Farming - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of live pigs nationwide was 14.61 CNY/kg, down 1.42% week-on-week and down 4.76% year-on-year; self-breeding profits were 80.66 CNY/head, decreasing by 3.67 CNY/head week-on-week [2][21] Poultry - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of broiler chicks was 2.85 CNY/chick, down 2.06% week-on-week, and the price of white feather broilers was 7.40 CNY/kg, down 0.67% week-on-week [2][27] Agricultural Products - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of wheat was 2,468.89 CNY/ton, up 0.33% week-on-week; corn was 2,304.29 CNY/ton, up 0.50% week-on-week; however, soybean meal prices fell to 2,988.00 CNY/ton, down 9.45% week-on-week [3][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality swine companies with strong cost control, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - For the poultry sector, it recommends looking at integrated leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock for their cost advantages [4] - In the feed sector, Haida Group is highlighted as a beneficiary of recovering livestock inventory [4] - For agricultural products, attention is drawn to Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, as well as seed companies like Denghai Seeds and Longping High-Tech [4]

非银金融 行业研究/行业周报 低配券商板块或迎公募资金重配置机会 ——券商&资本市场周观察（2025.5.12-2025.5.16） ◼ 市场要闻 1. 中国证监会修改《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，深化上市公司 并购重组市场改革；2. 首批 26 只上报浮动费率基金主要对标沪深 300、 中证 A500、500、800 等主流宽基指数。 ◼ 数据跟踪 本周证券(申万)指数上涨 2.18%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.07pct。红塔证券 （+13.84%）、锦龙股份（+13.18%）、广发证券（+6.09%）领涨。券商 ETF 本周环比-8.9 亿份，今年以来累计流入资金 36.7 亿元。截至 2025/5/16，证券(申万)指数 PB1.27X，位于近 5 年由低至高 38%分位。 1）交投：本周 A 股日均成交额 12663 亿元，环比-6.4%，本年 A 股日 均成交额 14336 亿元，同比+58.8%。 2）两融：截止 2025/5/15，A 股两融余额 18085 亿元，其中融资余额 17967 亿元，融券余额 118 亿元，环比分别+44.9、+42.9、+2.0 亿元。 年内日均两融余额同 ...

固定收益/固收点评 信贷投放有待回暖 ——4 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 事件：2025 年 5 月 15 日，央行公布 2025 年 4 月金融统计数据：广义 货币 M2 同比增长 8.00%；狭义货币 M1 同比增长 1.50%。2025 年 4 月末社会融资规模存量同比增长 8.7%；2025 年前四个月社会融资规 模增量累计为 16.34 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.61 万亿元。 存量财政政策加速落地，政府融资支持 4 月社融数据增长。4 月社融 同比增速为 8.70%；新增社融初值为 11,585.00 亿元。其中 4 月政府债 券净融资 9,762 亿元，较上年同期多增 10,699 亿元，有力的支撑了社 融规模增长。政府融资是带动新增社融同比多增的重要因素，体现出 政府加杠杆的托底作用；社融结构上的变化体现了财政的支持力度保 持，得益于近期财政存量政策加速落地，我们认为其有望为二季度经 济的稳定增长奠定基调，具体增长结构或还需要针对性发力。4 月社 融口径下信贷乏力：新增人民币贷款 844 亿元，比上年同期少增 2,465 亿元。直接融资方面：4 月企业债净融资增加。非标方面：4 月新增非 标 ...

短债收益率回落，融资加码科技 ——流动性 5 月第 1 期 ◼ 内容要点 策略研究/策略周报 上周（5.5-5.9）2 年期国债收益率下行、10 年期上行；美国 2 年期、 10 年国债收益率继续上行，美元指数回升，中美 10 年国债利差边际 扩大；上周融资买入额回升，南向资金流小幅净流入。 ◼ 宏观流动性 国内：上周（5.5-5.9），2 年期国债收益率下行、10 年期上行，10 年期 与 2 年期国债利差扩大。上周央行公开市场净回笼 7817 亿元，MLF 净回笼 1250 亿元。 国外：上周（5.5-5.9）2 年期、10 年期美债收益率继续上行，美元指 数上行，中美 10 年期国债利差边际扩大。上周 10 年期美债收益率上 行至 4.37%，美元指数升至 100.42。截至 5 月 9 日，中美 10 年期国债 利差扩大至-2.73%。 ◼ 市场流动性 公募基金：2025 年 5 月新成立 15 只基金，其中 13 只为股票型基金。 截至 5 月 9 日，2025 年 5 月新成立基金 15 只，24 年 5 月为 94 只； 其中，5 月新成立股票型基金 13 只，发行总额约 58 亿份。 ETF ...

固定收益/固收周报 短期债市调整压力增加 ——固收周报（2025.05.05-2025.05.09） 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 05 月 02 日- 2025 年 05 月 09 日期间，央行总计开展 8,361.00 亿元逆回购操作，共 16,178.00亿元逆回购到期，全口径下净回笼 7,817.00亿元。银行间资 金价格整体下行，其中，DR001 下行 29.45BP 至 1.4908%；DR007 下 行 25.77BP 至 1.5409%。利率债一级市场发行 5,785.79 亿元，净融资 额为 2,352.91 亿元。国债 10 年期上行 1.08BP 至 1.6351%，1 年期、3 年期 、5 年期、7 年期国债收益率分别下行 4.05BP、1.33BP、 2.06BP、0.86BP 至 1.4194%、1.4633%、1.4957%、1.5720%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 16.44BP 走阔至 21.57BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率整体下行：2025 年 05 月 05 日-2025 年 05 月 11日期间，信用债发行规模增加，其中信用债一级市场新发行 ...

农林牧渔 行业研究/行业周报 猪价震荡偏弱，豆粕价格回落 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250506-0509） ◼ 核心观点 行情复盘： 【农产品】小麦、稻、玉米价格偏强，豆粕价格回落。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日，全国小麦现货均价 2460.67 元/吨，较 2025 年 4 月 30 日上涨 0.19%；全国粳稻现货均价 2864.00 元/吨，较 2025 年 4 月 30 日上涨 0.21%；全国玉米现货均价 2292.86 元/吨，较 2025 年 4 月 30 日上涨 1.78%；全国豆粕现货均价 3300.00 元/吨，较 2025 年 4 月 30 日下跌 5.08%。 ◼ 投资建议 首次覆盖农林牧渔行业，给予"增持"评级。我们认为，农业板块作 为典型的必选消费品类，具备相对稳定的需求和政策的大力支持，在 当前复杂多变的外部环境下，农业板块或成为资金避险的重要选择。 同时从产业周期来看，当前主要的肉类蛋白、农产品价格大多处于筑 底回升的阶段，优质的细分行业龙头有望实现业绩的持续稳定增长， 板块攻守兼备，故给予"增持"评级。 【生猪养殖】低成本是上市猪企穿越猪周期的核心竞争力，重点看好 成本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate provides room for domestic monetary policy, and bond yields are expected to break through previous lows. The RMB exchange rate has shown a short - term strengthening trend due to factors such as fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade relations, the weakening of the US dollar index, domestic economic recovery, and risk - aversion sentiment. The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate may trigger a bond market rally in May, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds expected to break through previous lows. It is recommended that investors seize the rhythm, with trading accounts adding positions on adjustments and allocation accounts paying attention to opportunities when local bond supply increases [4][69]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bonds 1.1 Liquidity Observation From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 199.98 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 124.48 billion yuan under the full - caliber. Inter - bank capital prices mostly increased, with DR001 rising 18.29BP to 1.7853% and DR007 rising 7.87BP to 1.7986%. Exchange - traded capital prices showed mixed trends [1][15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 135.092 billion yuan, with a net financing of 134.697 billion yuan. Treasury bonds were not issued, policy - based financial bonds raised 42 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased compared to the previous period, raising 93.092 billion yuan [1][24]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading From April 25 to April 30, 2025, most Treasury bond spot yields declined. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.98BP to 1.4599%, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bond yields declined 4.26BP, 2.70BP, 3.52BP, and 3.63BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 21.05BP to 16.44BP. The spot yields of China Development Bank bonds also declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 12.77BP to 9.35BP [1][30]. 2. Credit Bonds 2.1 Primary Market Issuance From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased. A total of 443 new credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 460.695 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 135 billion yuan. The net financing was - 208.918 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. In terms of bond ratings, AAA - rated bonds accounted for 55.99% of the total issuance. Credit bond issuance was mainly within 1 year. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][41]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading From April 25 to April 30, 2025, most of the maturity yields of urban investment bonds declined, with the 10 - year AA - rated bonds having the largest decline of 4.96BP. Most of the maturity yields of medium - and short - term notes also declined, with the 10 - year AAA, AA +, and AA - rated notes having the largest decline of 3.49BP [2][52]. 2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [54]. 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Overall Rise of European and American Stock Indices From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the three major US stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 3.00%, the S&P 500 rising 2.92%, and the Nasdaq rising 3.42%. European stock indices also rose, with the German DAX rising 3.80%, the French CAC40 rising 3.11%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 2.15%. Most Asia - Pacific stock indices rose, except for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Russian Index [3][55]. 3.2 Overall Rise of US Treasury Yields From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the yields of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 5.00BP, 6.00BP, 4.00BP, 5.00BP, and 4.00BP respectively [3][57]. 3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies The US dollar index rose 0.46% week - on - week, and non - US currencies weakened. The pound sterling, euro, and yen against the US dollar all declined, while the US dollar against the RMB declined 0.07% [3][61]. 3.4 Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the prices of crude oil and gold declined. The COMEX gold futures price fell 1.44%, and the London spot gold price fell 0.84%. The Brent crude oil price fell 8.34%, and the WTI crude oil price fell 7.51% [3][63]. 4. Investment Suggestions The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate provides room for domestic monetary policy. In May, the central bank's simultaneous implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may trigger a bond market rally. The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is expected to break through previous lows. It is recommended that trading accounts add positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to opportunities when local bond supply increases [4][69].