2024 年 12 月 02 日 行业周报 看好/维持 有色金属 行 业 研 究 有色金属 美元高位回落，金属价格有望反弹（20241125-20241129） | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% over the next six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - Anavex has submitted a marketing authorization application (MAA) to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for its investigational therapy Blarcamesine, aimed at treating Alzheimer's disease. Blarcamesine is a once-daily oral small molecule SIGMAR1 activator that induces autophagy to clear misfolded proteins from cells, thereby improving cellular health and survival [1][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed a performance increase of +1.29% on November 29, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.15 percentage points, ranking 14th among 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan classification [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - As of November 29, 2024, the pharmaceutical sector's performance was +1.29%, with hospitals (+2.78%) and blood products (+0.65%) leading the sub-industry performance, while drugstores (-0.41%) and medical consumables (-0.33%) lagged [1]. Company News - Yinos (688170) appointed Jing Shi as the new Chief Technology Officer and Global Head of Clinical Operations, while continuing to oversee laboratory testing and drug efficacy departments [1]. - Renfu Pharmaceutical's major shareholder restructuring is progressing steadily, with a reduction of 14.3 million shares, accounting for 2.56% of the total share capital [1]. Clinical Trials - Shanghai Pharmaceutical (601607) announced the completion of the analysis of the Phase II clinical trial results for LT3001, showing good overall safety and preliminary efficacy [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The 2024 medical insurance directory has been released, showing a significant increase in the inclusion of innovative drugs, with a total of 91 new drugs added, including 26 for cancer treatment and 15 for chronic diseases [11][12]. - The negotiation success rate for innovative drugs has reached over 90%, which is 16 percentage points higher than the overall success rate, reflecting a strong trend towards supporting domestic innovative drugs [29]. - The average price reduction for drugs outside the medical insurance directory was 63%, significantly easing the financial burden on insured patients, with an expected reduction of over 50 billion yuan for patients by 2025 [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Medical Insurance Negotiation Results - A total of 91 new drugs were added to the 2024 medical insurance directory, with 38 being globally new innovative drugs [29]. - The negotiation involved 127 companies and 162 drugs, achieving a success rate of 76% with an average price reduction of 63% [11][12]. 2. Industry Views and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that innovation remains a crucial investment theme in the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting opportunities in overseas expansion, single product innovation, and policy catalysts [37][38]. - Key companies recommended for investment include 康方生物 (Kangfang Biologics), 迪哲医药 (Dizhe Pharmaceuticals), and 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics) [35][37]. 3. Market Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector saw a 2.99% increase in the week of November 25 to November 29, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.67 percentage points [42]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has risen, with a premium rate of 135.08% relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, indicating a strengthening market position [49].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the media and internet industry [1] Core Views - AI Agents are transforming human-computer interaction, enhancing the efficiency of using smart devices, and are expected to empower vertical fields such as game development and film production, thereby boosting productivity [2][3] - AI emotional companionship products have evolved into various forms with physical or 3D avatars, offering innovative features that cater to diverse user needs and potentially expanding market opportunities [3] Industry Performance and Data Gaming - In October 2024, the domestic gaming market generated actual sales revenue of 29.083 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.40% [32] - Top-performing games on the iOS bestseller list include *Honor of Kings*, *Dungeon & Fighter: Origin*, and *Peacekeeper Elite* [32] - The top three games in terms of advertising spending in the first half of 2024 are *Shoot Zombies*, *233 Paradise*, and *Skeleton Legend* [42][43] AI - In October 2024, the top three global AI products by traffic were ChatGPT (3.78 billion visits), New Bing (1.86 billion visits), and Canva Text to Image (818 million visits) [44][45] - Domestically, the top three AI products by traffic were 360AI Search (287.58 million visits), Baidu Wenku AI (48.25 million visits), and Kimi (Moonshot) (29.28 million visits) [49][50] Film - As of November 2024, the total box office revenue for domestic films reached 40.2 billion yuan, with a single-day box office of 156 million yuan on November 30, a 9.09% increase from the previous week [51] - The top three films on November 30 were *Good Stuff* (610.9 million yuan), *Moana 2* (222.1 million yuan), and *Good Luck* (142.7 million yuan) [52] TV Series - On November 28, 2024, the top-rated TV series on CSM71 were *Alley Families* (2.748% rating), *Marriage Inside and Out* (2.301% rating), and *Good Reunion* (1.942% rating) [56] - The top three TV series by broadcast index as of November 29 were *Eternal Night Galaxy* (84.68), *White Night Dawn* (82.95), and *Alley Families* (82.91) [61] Variety Shows - The top three variety shows by broadcast index as of November 29 were *Goodbye Lover Season 4* (83.86), *Sound of Life: Greater Bay Area Season* (80.06), and *Let’s Go Now Season 2* (77.64) [62][63] Internet Video Platforms - In August 2024, the top five video platforms by MAU were iQIYI (394 million), Tencent Video (386 million), Mango TV (268 million), Bilibili (219 million), and Youku (199 million) [66] Live Streaming E-commerce - From November 18 to November 24, the top three live streaming hosts on Douyin by sales were Cai Lei's Breaking Ice Station (1 billion+), Yu Hui Tong Xing (1 billion+), and Mr. Dong (1 billion+) [67][68] Advertising - From January to July 2023, advertising market spending increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with July spending up 8.7% year-on-year but down 0.8% month-on-month [69][72] Key Company Announcements - Xuanya International adjusted its 2024 restricted stock incentive plan, reducing the number of participants from 73 to 71 and the total number of restricted shares from 6.3 million to 6.25 million [74] - Ciwen Media established a new fund with a capital contribution of up to 16 million yuan [74] - Dianhun Network repurchased 1,079,100 shares, accounting for 0.44% of its total shares, with a total expenditure of 20.01 million yuan [77]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------|-------------------------------|----------------|------------------|----------------| | | 新能源汽车行业 | \|行业深度研究报告 | | 2024/11/29 | 证券研究报告 | | | | | | | | | | | 向上三年周期已经逐步开启 2025 | 年投资策略报告 | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师： | 刘强 | 证券分析师： | 梁必果 | 证券分析师： | 钟欣材 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190522080001 | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524010001 | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524110004 | | 证券分析师： | 万伟 | 证券分析师： | 刘淞 | 证券分析师： | 谭甘露 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524100003 | 分析师登记编号： | S1190523030002 ...

Group 1: Industry Trends - Tesla is expected to drive a new upward cycle in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, with a significant shift towards smart technology anticipated by 2025[2] - The global EV market, particularly in Europe and North America, is projected to exceed expectations due to the end of subsidy declines and stricter carbon assessments[2] - The next three years are critical for the smart upgrade of electric vehicles, with a current penetration rate of 50% in China for EVs but much lower for smart features[8] Group 2: Market Opportunities - Domestic supply chains are expected to benefit from the global upward cycle, with companies like BYD and Huawei emerging strongly in the smart EV sector[3] - The demand for lithium and cobalt is anticipated to rise as the industry approaches a price bottom by 2025, creating investment opportunities in these metals[3] - The penetration rate of EVs in Europe and North America is currently low (10%-20%), indicating significant growth potential as new models are introduced[28] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Key beneficiaries of the upcoming cycle include leading companies such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Huichuan Technology, which are positioned for core growth[70] - New technology and market entrants like Putailai and Kodali are expected to benefit from the evolving landscape[70] - Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Zhongwei Shares are projected to gradually recover from their current low points, presenting investment opportunities[70]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the photovoltaic industry, anticipating a new upward cycle starting in 2025 due to supply-demand restructuring and technological advancements [2][5]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is expected to experience a significant demand increase driven by the parity of solar and storage technologies, with global demand projected to grow substantially in the coming years [11]. - New technologies such as granular silicon and BC (Bifacial Cell) are anticipated to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, marking the beginning of a new era in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3][64]. - The report highlights a turning point for auxiliary materials, suggesting that as photovoltaic module prices stabilize and begin to rise, leading companies in auxiliary materials are likely to see improved sales and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Supply-Demand Restructuring - The report emphasizes that supply-side reforms are accelerating industry recovery, with industry chain prices expected to stabilize and rebound [2][8]. - Global demand for photovoltaic and storage technologies is projected to maintain high growth rates, with expected new installations of 500 GW in 2024, 600 GW in 2025, and 768 GW in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of approximately 19%, 20%, and 28% respectively [11]. Technological Advancements - The report discusses the penetration of new technologies such as granular silicon and BC, which are expected to significantly enhance efficiency and reduce costs, leading to a new era of cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][64]. - The granular silicon process is noted for its simplicity and energy efficiency, with a conversion rate of up to 99% and a reduction in energy consumption by over 75% compared to traditional methods [55][58]. Auxiliary Materials and Profit Recovery - As the prices of photovoltaic components stabilize and begin to recover, the pressure on auxiliary materials is expected to decrease significantly, leading to an improved competitive landscape [4]. - The report suggests that leading companies in auxiliary materials are likely to enter a recovery phase, with increasing sales volumes and profitability anticipated [4]. Beneficiary Analysis - The report identifies several companies that are expected to benefit from the new market and technological advancements, including Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, which are positioned to capitalize on the anticipated recovery in industry prices and profitability [5]. - Companies in the new technology space, such as GCL-Poly and XBC, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries due to their focus on cost reduction and technological iteration [5]. - Leading companies in supporting facilities, such as Sungrow Power and DeYuan Co., are expected to see rapid increases in sales and profitability driven by emerging markets [5].

2024 年 11 月 27 日 行业周报 看好/维持 医药 行 业 研 究 医药 默沙东 Winrevair 三期临床成功，用于治疗 PAH | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for the chemical pharmaceuticals and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, while the biopharmaceutical sector is rated as Neutral [1][10]. Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the support from the Shanghai Medical Insurance Bureau for the development of commercial health insurance [1][5]. - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.64% on November 28, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 sub-industries [4]. - Notable performances within sub-industries include offline pharmacies (+2.78%) and medical circulation (-0.25%), while medical equipment (-2.17%) and medical research outsourcing (-1.36%) lagged behind [4]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The Shanghai Medical Insurance Bureau has introduced measures to enhance the development of commercial insurance, focusing on self-funded medical expenses not covered by basic insurance, encouraging product innovation, and optimizing sales through various platforms [5]. Company News - BeiGene announced that its PD-1 antibody drug, Tislelizumab, and BTK inhibitor, Zanubrutinib, have received new indications added to the National Medical Insurance Directory [5]. - Jingxin Pharmaceutical's innovative drug, Dazatinib, has been included in the National Medical Insurance Directory for the treatment of insomnia [5]. - Lijun Group plans to repurchase shares worth 600-1,000 million yuan, representing approximately 1.46%-2.44% of its total shares [5]. - Junshi Biosciences reported that its product, Toripalimab, has received new indications added to the National Medical Insurance Directory [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the real estate industry, indicating that the expected overall return will be between -5% and 5% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [56]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to experience adjustments, with performance pressures on real estate companies. The total operating revenue of 37 sample bond-issuing real estate companies reached 1.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [13][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies totaled -1.974 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 103.2%, indicating a significant decline in profitability [17]. - The report highlights that the cash flow from operating activities has weakened significantly, with a net cash flow of 41.776 billion yuan, down 84% year-on-year [25]. - The report notes a slight decrease in interest-bearing debt, which totaled 3.74 trillion yuan, down 1.46% from the previous year [38]. - Sales figures for the first three quarters of 2024 showed a 33% decline year-on-year, with state-owned enterprises performing relatively better [47]. Summary by Sections Profitability - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, with state-owned enterprises showing a growth of 2.82% [13][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders saw a significant decline, with 18 companies reporting losses [17]. - The gross profit margin for the sample companies was 17.15%, continuing a downward trend from previous periods [21]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities dropped to 41.776 billion yuan, a decrease of 84% compared to the same period last year [25]. - Investment cash flow showed a net outflow of 54.509 billion yuan, a reduction of 57.59% year-on-year [27]. - Financing cash flow outflow decreased to approximately -1527.86 billion yuan, indicating a tightening financing environment [33]. Debt Situation - The total interest-bearing debt for the sample companies was 3.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease [38]. - The average asset-liability ratio, excluding advance receipts, was 69.05%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [40]. - The average net debt ratio increased to 118.24%, up 12.07 percentage points year-on-year [40]. Sales Performance - The total sales amount for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.9845 trillion yuan, down 33% year-on-year [47]. - State-owned enterprises and mixed-ownership leaders had sales declines of 26.78% and 29.29%, respectively [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market may help restore buyer confidence and support a recovery in the sector [53].