Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - Biomass energy (SAF) receives favorable policy support, with the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announcing the cancellation of export tax rebates for chemically modified oils starting December 1, 2024. This is expected to benefit domestic SAF and biodiesel producers by improving raw material accessibility [1][10] - The price of potassium chloride has increased due to normal inventory levels but tight supply during winter shipping. As of December 1, 2024, the price of potassium chloride is 2,578 RMB per ton, up 3.04% from the previous week [1][38] Summary by Sections 1. Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Among 58 monitored products, methanol (3.03%), potassium chloride (2.84%), and R134a (2.63%) saw the highest price increases, while octanol (-3.24%) and hydrofluoric acid (-2.79%) experienced the largest declines [16][21] 2. Biomass Energy (SAF) - SAF can reduce carbon emissions by over 50% compared to traditional jet fuel, making it a key choice for environmental reduction in aviation. The recent policy changes are expected to enhance the market potential for SAF [1][10] 3. Potassium Chloride - The domestic potassium market is experiencing tight supply due to difficulties in winter shipping, with a reported price increase to 2,578 RMB per ton as of December 1, 2024 [1][38] 4. Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices have decreased, with a reported price of 24,101 RMB per ton as of December 1, 2024, down 100 RMB from the previous week. The production cost has increased due to rising prices of raw materials [24][34] 5. Polyurethane - MDI prices have decreased while TDI prices have slightly increased. The average price for polymer MDI in South China is 17,900 RMB per ton, down 100 RMB from the previous week [21][22] 6. Fertilizers - Urea prices have increased slightly to 1,835 RMB per ton, while potassium chloride prices have risen to 2,578 RMB per ton, reflecting a tightening supply situation [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tiantan Biological Products (600161) [1] Core Views - The report discusses the growth expectations for Tiantan Biological's immunoglobulin business, particularly focusing on the sustainability of high growth rates post-pandemic, market size projections for the next five years, and the impact of new product launches on revenue growth [1][4][17] Industry Outlook - The immunoglobulin market is expected to reach a terminal size of 22.8 billion by 2028, with a projected CAGR of approximately 10% from 2023 to 2028 [1][5] - The report highlights that the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated market education regarding the clinical value of immunoglobulin therapy, leading to increased recognition and demand [1][4] Company Insights - Tiantan Biological is positioned as a leading player in the blood products industry, with a significant market share and a robust supply chain [1][4] - The company has a strong pipeline of products, including the recently approved 10% immunoglobulin and a subcutaneous immunoglobulin product expected to drive future growth [4][17] - The report anticipates that the company's immunoglobulin revenue could reach approximately 4.82 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of about 16% from 2023 to 2028 [1][5] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Tiantan Biological are as follows: 5.71 billion in 2024, 6.60 billion in 2025, and 7.61 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.40 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.86 billion respectively [5] - The report indicates that the company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.71, 0.78, and 0.94 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [37]. Core Insights - The report highlights a series of favorable policies introduced in November aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including tax incentives and the use of local government bonds to recover idle land [2][5]. - Sales in the real estate market have shown a significant recovery, with a 13% month-on-month increase in transactions across 30 major cities, reaching a total of 103,610 units sold in November, marking a new monthly high for the year [8][13]. - New housing prices in major cities have increased, with the average price of new residential properties rising to 16,592 yuan per square meter in November, reflecting a 0.36% month-on-month increase [22]. - The supply of new residential properties has also seen a month-on-month increase of 35% in November, although the overall supply remains low compared to previous periods [25]. - The land market has shown marginal improvement, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline of land supply and transaction volumes [27][30]. - The report suggests that the market's recovery is expected to continue into December, driven by year-end promotional activities from real estate companies [33]. Summary by Sections Policies - In November, multiple favorable policies were introduced to support the real estate market, including tax reductions and the recovery of idle land through local government bonds [2][5]. Sales - The sales volume of residential properties in 30 major cities reached 103,610 units in November, a 13% increase from the previous month and a 20% increase year-on-year [8][13]. - Sales in first and second-tier cities showed positive growth, while third-tier cities experienced lower fluctuations [13][14]. Housing Prices - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities increased by 2.29% year-to-date, with November's average price at 16,592 yuan per square meter [22]. - The average price of second-hand residential properties was 14,278 yuan per square meter, with a slight decrease in the month-on-month decline [22]. New Supply - New residential property supply in November increased by 35% month-on-month, although the total supply for the year remains down by 32% [25]. Land Market - The land market showed signs of improvement, with a reduced year-on-year decline in land supply and transaction volumes [27][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing policy effects and increased supply in driving market confidence and sales recovery, with expectations for continued market activity into December [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, expecting an overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a slight decline of -0.30% on December 3, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.41 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 sub-industries [1]. - Notable sub-industry performances included medical research outsourcing (+0.56%), vaccines (+0.40%), and medical consumables (+0.10%), while offline pharmacies (+0.53%), medical devices (+0.79%), and hospitals (+0.85%) lagged behind [1]. - PTC Therapeutics announced a global licensing and collaboration agreement with Novartis for the Huntington's disease project PTC518, which includes a $1 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments up to $1.9 billion [1]. - The report highlights the successful Phase II clinical trial results of D-2570, a novel oral selective inhibitor targeting TYK2 for psoriasis, showing a PASI 75 response rate of 85.0%-90.0% after 12 weeks, significantly higher than the placebo group [1]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance on December 3, 2024, was -0.30%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.41 percentage points [1]. - The top-performing sub-industries included medical research outsourcing, vaccines, and medical consumables, while offline pharmacies, medical devices, and hospitals showed weaker performance [1]. Industry News - PTC Therapeutics signed a global licensing agreement with Novartis for PTC518, a small molecule drug for Huntington's disease, with significant financial implications [1]. - The report also covers the positive clinical trial results for D-2570, indicating strong efficacy in treating psoriasis [1].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0 77 percentage points on December 2 2024 with a sector increase of 1 56% [1] - The hospital sub-sector led with a 2 34% increase followed by medical equipment at 2 13% and in-vitro diagnostics at 2 00% [1] - The blood products sub-sector lagged with a 0 53% increase [1] - Top performing stocks included Kangzhi Pharmaceutical (+20 07%) Frontier Biotech (+20 00%) and Mengke Pharmaceutical (+10 55%) [1] - The NMPA approved Zambon's new drug Safinamide Mesylate Tablets for Parkinson's disease treatment in China [1] Sub-sector Ratings - Other pharmaceutical and medical sectors are rated as neutral [1] - Chemical pharmaceuticals and traditional Chinese medicine production have no rating [1] - Biological pharmaceuticals are rated as neutral [1] Company News - Hengrui Pharmaceuticals repurchased 4 9361 million shares (0 08% of total shares) at a price range of 39 00-57 01 yuan per share totaling 207 million yuan [1] - Nuosige repurchased 1 442 million shares (1 49% of total shares) at a price range of 35 06-43 15 yuan per share totaling 56 million yuan [1] - Zhaoyan New Drug repurchased 2 1031 million shares (0 28% of total shares) at a price range of 13 20-18 15 yuan per share totaling 33 million yuan [1] - Asymchem repurchased 1 2301 million shares (3 62% of total shares) at a price range of 71 65-102 00 yuan per share totaling 1 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The rise of "Guzi Economy" is benefiting leading companies in the goods and toy manufacturing sectors, with a notable acquisition by Yueyang Lin Paper to purchase 100% of JunTai Technology for 1.278 billion yuan [11][34]. - The two-dimensional culture is gaining traction, with the market for related products experiencing significant growth. The Chinese two-dimensional content market is projected to reach approximately 119.5 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [11]. - The peripheral market for two-dimensional products is expected to grow to around 102.4 billion yuan, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 37.6% [11]. Market Overview - The light industry sector saw a 5.35% increase in the week of November 25 to November 29, 2024, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index [11][12]. - The cumulative increase for the light industry sector since the beginning of 2024 is a decline of 0.95% [11]. Industry Data Tracking Furniture Industry Data - Retail sales of furniture-related products increased by 7.40% year-on-year in October 2024, with cumulative revenue for the furniture manufacturing industry reaching 535.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.60% [25][26]. - The export value of furniture and its parts in October 2024 was 5.388 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.51% [25]. Paper Industry Data - In October 2024, the export volume of pulp and paper products increased by 17.70% year-on-year, while import volume decreased by 15.00% [28][29]. - The prices of whiteboard paper and corrugated paper showed slight increases, with whiteboard paper priced at 4,100 yuan per ton, down 10.48% year-on-year [28]. Packaging Industry Data - The prices of polyethylene and polypropylene increased by 4.28% and decreased by 1.40% year-on-year, respectively [31]. - The WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 10.06% and 10.67% year-on-year, respectively, while LME aluminum prices increased by 18.09% [31][33]. Company Announcements - Yibin Paper announced plans to invest 210 million yuan in a bamboo pulp molding project with an annual production capacity of 6,600 tons [34]. - Yueyang Lin Paper plans to acquire JunTai Technology for 1.278 billion yuan, indicating strategic growth in the sector [34]. Investment Recommendations - The "Guzi Economy" sector is expected to perform strongly in the short term, with an expanding user base and increasing consumer spending power providing long-term support. Attention is recommended for leading companies in goods and toy manufacturing [38]. - The home furnishing industry is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in real estate and government policies promoting upgrades, suggesting a focus on resilient and undervalued leaders in the sector [38]. - The paper industry is entering a traditional demand peak in Q4, with price increases likely to lead to profit recovery, recommending attention to integrated leaders in the pulp and paper sector [38].

Group 1: Economic Stability - The manufacturing PMI for November is 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continuous upward trend for three months[4] - The production index is at 52.4%, increasing by 0.4 percentage points, and the new orders index is at 50.8%, rising by 0.8 percentage points, both reflecting strong supply and demand dynamics[8] - The manufacturing PMI's rise is supported by significant contributions from production and new orders indices, which are crucial for economic recovery[6] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector[18] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.7%, decreasing by 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market[26] - The service sector's business activity index remains stable at 50.1%, supported by new energy and financial services, despite the holiday effect fading[22] Group 3: Structural Issues and Future Outlook - Despite the positive PMI trends, over 60% of manufacturing firms report insufficient demand, indicating ongoing structural challenges[30] - The decline in price indices for raw materials and factory prices suggests a need for continued policy support to address supply-demand imbalances[15] - Upcoming political meetings in December are expected to provide further policy direction, with market expectations potentially fluctuating in the interim[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the biopharmaceutical sector, specifically focusing on the blood products industry [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the profitability model of blood products companies, emphasizing that company profits are derived from plasma collection volume multiplied by gross profit per ton of plasma, minus period expenses. It also considers risks such as centralized procurement and the substitution risk from recombinant biological products [1]. Summary by Sections Plasma Collection Volume - The core competitiveness of companies lies in plasma collection volume, which is expected to exceed 15,000 tons by 2025. As of June 2024, there are 327 operational plasma collection stations in China, with significant growth anticipated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][5]. - The top four blood product companies accounted for 60% of the plasma collection stations in 2023, indicating a trend towards concentration among leading firms [1]. Single Station Collection Capacity - The average plasma collection per station in China was 38 tons in 2023, with expectations for this figure to rise to approximately 40.7 tons, 43.6 tons, and 46.1 tons from 2024 to 2026 [1][5]. Gross Profit per Ton of Plasma - There is significant potential for increasing gross profit per ton of plasma, driven by stable demand for key products. The report highlights growth opportunities in various segments, including albumin and immunoglobulin products [1][5]. - The report anticipates that the cost of plasma will stabilize, while the revenue from plasma products is expected to grow due to increasing terminal demand [1]. Period Expenses - The report notes that period expenses are stabilizing, with net profit margins expected to rise. This is attributed to steady R&D expenses, decreasing sales expenses, and stable management costs [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the blood products market is characterized by a stable price environment due to the inelastic demand for key products like albumin and immunoglobulin. The risk of price fluctuations from centralized procurement is considered low [1][5]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned in the report include Tian Tan Biological, Shanghai Raist, Hualan Biological, and Pailin Biological, all of which are positioned to benefit from the trends outlined in the report [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The bauma CHINA 2024 exhibition showcased significant advancements, highlighting the acceleration of internationalization for domestic manufacturers [11][12]. - The exhibition attracted 3542 exhibitors from 32 countries, marking a 24% increase from the previous event, and drew 281,488 professional visitors from 188 countries, with over 20% being international attendees [11]. - Major domestic companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion presented innovative products and secured substantial orders during the event [11]. Industry Highlights - The machinery sector saw a 2.6% increase in the recent week, outperforming the broader market [1]. - SANY Heavy Industry showcased 141 technical solutions and 51 new main products, with over 80 billion RMB in on-site contracts [11]. - XCMG displayed over 180 products and achieved intent orders for 6000 units worth nearly 10 billion RMB during the exhibition [11]. - Zoomlion signed contracts with international clients and showcased over 70 technical solutions across nine categories [11]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Hengli Hydraulic, Shantui, Zhejiang Dingli, Anhui Heli, and Hangcha Group for investment opportunities [12].

行 业 研 究 2024 年 12 月 02 日 行业周报 看好/维持 电力设备及新能源 电力设备及新能源 新能源周报（第 113 期 20241125-20241201）：重视底部并购、 价格弹性，BC、硅基有望快速放量 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...