Tai Ping Yang
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新能源行业周报(第107期):风光“内卷”有望改善,重视底部机会
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric equipment and new energy sector, indicating a "buy" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the "low-price competition" in the wind and solar sectors is expected to improve, emphasizing the importance of focusing on opportunities at the bottom of the market [1]. - The electric vehicle (EV) sector is poised to enter a new upward cycle, with a focus on global leading companies [1]. - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is anticipated to reach a mid-term bottom soon, with quality becoming a key consideration over price [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles - In September, the total sales of new energy vehicles in major European countries reached 230,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 86%, with a penetration rate of 25% [2][12]. - Specific country data includes: - Germany: 49,000 registrations, +5% YoY, +22% MoM, 24% penetration - France: 38,000 registrations, -16% YoY, +99% MoM, 28% penetration - UK: 81,000 registrations, +27% YoY, +225% MoM, 30% penetration - Italy: 11,000 registrations, +2% YoY, +111% MoM, 9% penetration - Spain: 11,000 registrations, +15% YoY, +79% MoM, 12% penetration - Norway: 13,000 registrations, +31% YoY, +19% MoM, 97% penetration - Sweden: 17,000 registrations, -6% YoY, +57% MoM, 65% penetration - Portugal: 6,000 registrations, +12% YoY, +46% MoM, 35% penetration - In the US, 123,000 EVs were registered in September, a decrease of 7% YoY and 5% MoM, with an 11% penetration rate [2][12]. 2. Photovoltaic Industry - The PV industry association stated that bids for PV modules below 0.68 CNY/W are suspected to be illegal, emphasizing the importance of quality over price [4][14]. - The cumulative newly installed PV capacity in China reached 139.99 GW in the first eight months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.71% [14]. - In August, the monthly newly installed capacity was 16.46 GW, a year-on-year increase of 2.88% but a month-on-month decrease of 21.81% [14]. 3. Wind Power Industry - The signing of the "Self-Regulation Agreement for Fair Competition in the Wind Power Industry" by 12 domestic wind turbine manufacturers aims to curb low-price competition and promote sustainable development [6][16]. - The agreement is expected to enhance the profitability of wind turbine manufacturers, with a rebound in gross margins anticipated for 2024 H1 [6][16]. - Investment recommendations focus on leading turbine manufacturers such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Shares, Sany Heavy Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy [7][16].
医药行业周报:强生PARP抑制剂组合在华获批上市
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:23
Industry Investment Rating - Chemical Pharmaceuticals: No Rating [1] - Traditional Chinese Medicine Production: No Rating [1] - Biopharmaceuticals II: Neutral [1] - Other Medical and Healthcare: Neutral [1] Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to outperform the CSI 300 Index by 0 70pct with a gain of +0 95% on October 21 2024 [3] - Sub-sectors such as offline pharmacies (+2 57%), medical R&D outsourcing (+1 32%), and medical consumables (+0 77%) performed well, while blood products (-0 36%), hospitals (-0 34%), and pharmaceutical distribution (-0 27%) lagged behind [3] - Top gainers in individual stocks include Changshan Pharmaceutical (+20 01%), Microport (+20 01%), and Guang Sheng Tang (+15 30%), while the biggest losers were Shuo Shi Biological (-4 69%), Yue Kang Pharmaceutical (-4 32%), and Te Bao Biological (-3 95%) [3] Industry News - Johnson & Johnson's PARP inhibitor combination, niraparib and abiraterone, was approved in China for the treatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) with BRCA gene mutations [4] Company News - Huahai Pharmaceutical received approval for its Agatroban Injection from the NMPA [4] - Enhua Pharmaceutical received approval for its Clonazepam Injection from the NMPA [4] - Chuanning Biotech reported a 24 43% YoY increase in revenue to 4 456 billion yuan and a 68 07% YoY increase in net profit to 1 076 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Salubris reported a 22 18% YoY increase in revenue to 3 001 billion yuan and a 6 70% YoY increase in net profit to 510 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [4] Related Research Reports - Policy updates on equipment renewal are expected to boost medical equipment bidding [3] - GSK's small molecule therapy, Gepotidacin, received FDA priority review [3] - Merck's Sotatercept has been submitted for approval in China for the treatment of PAH [3]
捷捷微电:Q3业绩预期大幅增长,产能利用率爬升
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, Jiejie Microelectronics (300623) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in Q3 performance, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 314 to 356 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 120% to 150% [2] - The increase in performance is attributed to several factors, including a recovery in downstream market demand, product structure upgrades, ongoing domestic substitution, and improved capacity utilization [2][3] - The company's Nantong project has achieved a production yield of over 95%, with a monthly capacity of approximately 100,000 pieces, contributing to enhanced profitability [2] - The automotive-grade packaging project is expected to be completed by the end of 2024, with an anticipated annual production capacity of 1.9 billion automotive-grade power devices, potentially generating a sales scale of 2 billion yuan [2] Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 2.831 billion, 3.542 billion, and 4.316 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.4%, 25.1%, and 21.9% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is forecasted to be 437 million, 564 million, and 708 million yuan, with growth rates of 15.4%, 15.9%, and 16.4% respectively [3] - The report indicates a PE ratio of 71X, 55X, and 44X for the years 2024-2026 [2][3]
深南电路:高端品类持续导入,AI相关品类加速放量
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [2][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.321 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 989 million yuan, which is a 108.32% increase year-on-year [3]. - Demand in AI and storage sectors is rapidly increasing, driving both revenue and profit growth for the company [3]. - The company has increased its R&D investment to 7.68% of revenue, up by 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting a commitment to technological leadership [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The printed circuit board (PCB) business generated 4.855 billion yuan in revenue, a 25.09% increase year-on-year, accounting for 58.35% of total revenue with a gross margin of 31.37% [3]. - The packaging substrate business achieved 1.596 billion yuan in revenue, a 94.31% increase year-on-year, representing 19.18% of total revenue with a gross margin of 25.46% [3]. - The electronic assembly business reported 1.211 billion yuan in revenue, a 42.39% increase year-on-year, contributing 14.55% to total revenue with a gross margin of 14.64% [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.985 billion yuan, 20.436 billion yuan, and 23.097 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.991 billion yuan, 2.484 billion yuan, and 3.071 billion yuan for the same years [7]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 29.10, 23.32, and 18.86 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5].
北方华创:24Q3业绩高增,平台优势逐渐显现
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth in Q3 2024, with expected revenue between 74.2 billion to 85.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.42% to 38.60% [2]. - The anticipated net profit for Q3 2024 is expected to be between 15.6 billion to 17.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.78% to 64.98% [2]. - The company has signed over 30 billion yuan in new orders in 2023, which is expected to support robust growth in 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company expects revenue of 188.3 billion to 216.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.08% to 48.61% [2]. - The projected net profit for the same period is between 41.3 billion to 47.5 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.19% to 64.69% [2]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted to reach 300.70 billion yuan, with net profits of 57.34 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 37.27x [4][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a comprehensive product development system and high coverage of semiconductor production processes, positioning it to benefit from the semiconductor industry's upward cycle and domestic substitution trends [4]. - The company’s product matrix has been enriched, and its market share is steadily increasing, contributing to the robust growth in revenue and net profit [2][3]. Future Projections - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 36.19% in 2024, 30.35% in 2025, and 26.89% in 2026 [5]. - The net profit growth rates are projected at 47.05% for 2024, 33.75% for 2025, and 32.99% for 2026 [5].
唯捷创芯:24H1业绩符合预期,模组产品增速亮眼
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [4][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.072 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.28%, and turned a profit with a net profit of 11.27 million yuan [2][3]. - The consumer electronics market is recovering, with the company's module products experiencing significant growth, particularly in the RF power amplifier module segment [2][3]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 54.08% of its employees dedicated to research and development, and R&D expenses accounting for 20.73% of its revenue in H1 2024 [3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.072 billion yuan, with a Q2 revenue of 610 million yuan, showing a 6.5% year-on-year increase and a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The RF power amplifier module revenue reached 854 million yuan, accounting for 80% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 26.14% [2]. - The company expects revenues of 3.26 billion, 4.01 billion, and 4.86 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 227 million, 360 million, and 503 million yuan [4][5]. Market Position - The company is the first in China to provide integrated RF front-end solutions, with established partnerships with major brands such as OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi [3]. - The global smartphone market showed a 6% year-on-year growth in H1 2024, contributing to the company's performance [2].
化工周报(10/14-10/20):制冷剂、天然橡胶价格上涨
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - Refrigerant prices are on the rise due to tight supply of raw materials like fluorite and scheduled maintenance by manufacturers, leading to a strong price trend in the fourth quarter [1][10] - Natural rubber prices are increasing, supported by higher operating rates in the tire industry, with a reported price of 17,400 CNY/ton, up 2.35% from the previous week [1][10] - Recommendations include focusing on companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. for refrigerants, and Hainan Rubber for natural rubber [1] Summary by Sections Key Chemical Products Price Tracking - Among the 58 monitored products, solid caustic soda (up 9.40%), liquid caustic soda (up 3.18%), R125 (up 2.94%), and TDI (up 2.72%) saw the highest price increases [7] - Conversely, Vitamin A (-5.71%), PTA (-4.86%), butadiene (-4.36%), and PX (-4.18%) experienced the largest declines [7] Refrigerants - The price of R142b is stable at 16,500 CNY/ton, while R22 has increased by 500 CNY/ton to 31,000 CNY/ton [1] - R125 and R134a prices have also risen by 500 CNY/ton, reaching 35,500 CNY/ton and 34,000 CNY/ton respectively [1][10] Natural Rubber - The tire industry's operating rate has improved to 60.72%, an increase of 18.17 percentage points from the previous week, supporting the rise in natural rubber prices [1] Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices have decreased to 24,982 CNY/ton, down 0.4% from last week, with a weekly production of 10,530 tons [12][16] - Phosphate prices show mixed trends, with monoammonium phosphate slightly increasing and diammonium phosphate remaining stable [16] Urea and Potash - Urea prices have dropped to 1,874 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton from last week, while potash prices have risen to 2,442 CNY/ton, up 39 CNY/ton [17]
新能源周报(第107期20241014-20241020):风光“内卷”有望改善,重视底部机会
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric equipment and new energy sector, indicating a "buy" rating for the industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the "low-price competition" in the wind and solar sectors is expected to improve, emphasizing the importance of focusing on opportunities at the bottom of the market [1]. - The electric vehicle (EV) downstream is anticipated to enter a new upward cycle, with a focus on global leading companies [1]. - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to reach a mid-term bottom soon, with quality being prioritized over price in component procurement [1][4]. - The wind power sector is taking steps to curb "internal competition," which is likely to lead to a sustained recovery in wind turbine profit margins [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles - In September, the total sales of new energy vehicles in major European countries reached 230,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 86%, with a penetration rate of 25% [2][12]. - Specific country data includes: - Germany: 49,000 registrations, +5% YoY, +22% MoM, 24% penetration - France: 38,000 registrations, -16% YoY, +99% MoM, 28% penetration - UK: 81,000 registrations, +27% YoY, +225% MoM, 30% penetration - Italy: 11,000 registrations, +2% YoY, +111% MoM, 9% penetration - Spain: 11,000 registrations, +15% YoY, +79% MoM, 12% penetration - Norway: 13,000 registrations, +31% YoY, +19% MoM, 97% penetration - Sweden: 17,000 registrations, -6% YoY, +57% MoM, 65% penetration - Portugal: 6,000 registrations, +12% YoY, +46% MoM, 35% penetration - In the US, 123,000 EVs were registered in September, a decrease of 7% YoY and 5% MoM, with an 11% penetration rate [2][12]. 2. Photovoltaic Industry - The PV industry association stated that bids for PV components below 0.68 CNY/W are suspected of being illegal, emphasizing the importance of quality over price [4][14]. - The cumulative newly installed PV capacity in China reached 139.99 GW in the first eight months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.71% [14]. - The report indicates that the short-term demand fluctuations are expected to accelerate the reshaping of supply and demand in the PV sector [14][15]. 3. Wind Power Industry - The signing of the "Self-Regulatory Convention for Fair Competition in the Wind Power Industry" by 12 domestic wind turbine manufacturers aims to address issues of low-price competition and unfair contract terms [6][16]. - This initiative is expected to enhance the health and sustainability of the wind power industry, leading to a potential increase in profit margins for wind turbine manufacturers [6][7][16]. - Investment recommendations focus on leading turbine manufacturers such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Sany Heavy Industry, and Mingyang Smart Energy, which are expected to see a reversal in profitability [7][16].
长川科技:24H1业绩亮眼,平台化布局未来可期
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 10:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported impressive performance in H1 2024, achieving revenue of 1.528 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 215 million yuan, up 949.29% year-on-year [1]. - The growth was primarily driven by the testing machine business, which saw sales revenue of 931 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 270.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its product coverage in the integrated circuit testing field, benefiting from increased national focus on the semiconductor industry and enhanced R&D investments [1]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D expenditure, reaching 426.49 million yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 27.91% of its revenue [1]. - The company aims to strengthen its market position by focusing on high-end testing machines and related equipment, enhancing its core competitiveness [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.258 billion yuan in 2024, 4.302 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.019 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 531 million yuan, 798 million yuan, and 996 million yuan respectively [3]. - The revenue growth rate is expected to be 83.54% in 2024, followed by 32.04% in 2025 and 16.67% in 2026 [3]. - The company’s net profit growth rate is forecasted to be 1,076.82% in 2024, 50.17% in 2025, and 24.76% in 2026 [3].
化工行业周报:制冷剂、天然橡胶价格上涨
Tai Ping Yang· 2024-10-22 09:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - Refrigerant prices are on the rise, with R142b priced at 16,500 CNY/ton, R22 at 31,000 CNY/ton (up 500 CNY/ton), R125 at 35,500 CNY/ton (up 500 CNY/ton), and R134a stable at 34,000 CNY/ton [2][3] - Natural rubber prices continue to increase, reaching 17,400 CNY/ton (up 2.35%), supported by higher tire industry operating rates [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. for refrigerants, and Hainan Rubber for natural rubber [2][3] Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Solid caustic soda (up 9.40%), liquid caustic soda (up 3.18%), R125 (up 2.94%), and TDI (up 2.72%) saw significant price increases, while Vitamin A (-5.71%) and PTA (-4.86%) experienced notable declines [8] (2) Refrigerants - The supply of fluorite remains tight due to low production levels, leading to a strong price trend for refrigerants as manufacturers plan maintenance [2][3][21] (3) Natural Rubber - The tire industry's operating rate has improved, supporting the rise in natural rubber prices [2][3] (4) Polyurethane - MDI prices have slightly rebounded due to supply disruptions in Europe, with prices for MDI at 18,100 CNY/ton (up 200 CNY/ton) and pure MDI at 18,500 CNY/ton (up 500 CNY/ton) [11] (5) Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices have decreased to 24,982 CNY/ton (down 0.4%), with production and inventory levels remaining stable [13][17] (6) Fertilizers - Urea prices have dropped to 1,874 CNY/ton (down 18 CNY/ton), while potassium chloride prices increased to 2,442 CNY/ton (up 39 CNY/ton) [18][20] (7) Fluorinated Chemicals - Prices for refrigerants R22 and R125 have increased, while the supply of fluorinated materials remains ample [21][22]