Group 1 - The core view of the report is that the Hong Kong residential market is expected to bottom out by mid-2025, with a recovery anticipated to strengthen in 2026, extending to the CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] - The report forecasts a 5% to 10% increase in Hong Kong residential prices in 2026, followed by a further 5% increase in 2027 [1] - The valuation of the sector is believed to have normalized, leading to a more moderate price increase outlook [1] Group 2 - The company has raised target prices for several stocks by an average of 8% to reflect a stronger outlook for residential prices and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] - The report highlights a positive outlook for "buy" ratings on Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101), while reiterating a "underperform" rating for MTR Corporation (00066) due to its large capital expenditure plans [1] - The report identifies potential catalysts for Hang Lung Properties, Henderson Land (00012), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997) in the first quarter [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that developers have already factored in a 5% to 10% increase in residential prices when comparing current residential prices and stock prices to 2021 [1] - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility after earnings announcements [1] Group 4 - The report indicates that the rebound in earnings will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record a significant earnings rebound for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are projected to lead the earnings rebound for developers from 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America forecasts that the Hong Kong residential market will bottom out in mid-2025, with a recovery expected to strengthen in 2026, extending to CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Residential prices in Hong Kong are expected to rise by 5% to 10% in 2026 and by 5% in 2027 [1] - The bank believes that sector valuations have normalized, anticipating a moderate increase in prices [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The bank has raised target prices for several companies by an average of 8% to reflect stronger residential price outlook and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The bank maintains a "buy" rating for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101) [1] - MTR Corporation (00066) is reiterated with an "underperform" rating due to low likelihood of significant dividend increases amid large capital expenditure plans [1] Group 4: Potential Catalysts - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and plans to increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land Development (00012) will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility post-earnings announcement [1] - Wharf Holdings (01997) is projected to see a 7% increase in dividends for the fiscal year 2025, supported by a decline in HIBOR and rising excess rents [1] Group 5: Earnings Recovery - The bank believes that earnings recovery will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land Development expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record significant earnings rebound in fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are anticipated to lead the earnings rebound for developers from fiscal years 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]

Core Insights - In 2026, Zhejiang's commercial market is set to experience a new wave of supply with 42 planned commercial projects totaling approximately 3 million square meters, a 6% decrease compared to 2025 [1] - Major operators such as Hang Lung, Kerry, Hongkong Land, and Longfor are competing fiercely, pushing Zhejiang into a new phase of "quality improvement" and "structural optimization" [1] Project Overview - The 42 commercial projects are distributed across cities including Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Ningbo, Jinhua, Huzhou, Taizhou, and Jiaxing, with Hangzhou contributing nearly half of the projects at 45.2% [4] - Notable projects in Hangzhou include: - Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza (100,000 sqm) opening in April 2026 [16] - Hangzhou Aura HZ (26,000 sqm) opening in May 2026 [29] - Hangzhou Kerry City (254,000 sqm) focusing on a mixed-use urban complex [13] - Hangzhou Guanghuan Dream Center (172,000 sqm) emphasizing a nature-themed shopping experience [9] Market Dynamics - 27 of the projects are shopping centers and malls, accounting for 64% of the market, indicating a trend towards specialized commercial developments [5] - The introduction of new players such as Alibaba's "Qing Cheng 556" and ByteDance's "Cangnan Li MEET636" reflects a diversification in the commercial landscape [5] Size and Scale - Projects larger than 50,000 sqm dominate the market, with 27 such projects making up 64.2% of the total [6] - The largest project, the Su Ning Plaza in Shaoxing, will cover 260,000 sqm, setting a record for the region [38] Competitive Landscape - The competition is characterized by a "pyramid" structure, with numerous leading projects at the top and fewer smaller non-standard commercial offerings [6] - The focus on asset operation and content creation in smaller projects highlights a long-term competitive strategy [6] Notable Projects - Wenzhou GT Plaza (100,000 sqm) aims to create a park-style social commercial complex [32] - Taizhou Bay Wuyue Plaza (70,000 sqm) is designed as a central leisure living area [35] - Ningbo's Haiquan Bay PLUS and Xiushui Street historical cultural district are set to enhance the city's cultural tourism [4]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 3.9% this week [1] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.1% [1] - The top five stocks by percentage increase were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rongkong (+19.7%), and *ST Yangguang (+16.0%) [1] - The bottom five stocks by percentage decrease included Hainan Airport (-7.9%), Guangming Real Estate (-7.2%), Hezhan Energy (-5.5%), Shoukai Shares (-5.0%), and China Wuyi (-2.0%) [1] Real Estate Data Tracking - New homes: In the week of January 3-9, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 1.37 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 46.7% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, new home transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, down 30.1% month-on-month and 46.6% year-on-year [1] - Second-hand homes: In the week of January 3-9, 21 key cities saw a total transaction of 2.06 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 25.4% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand home transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, down 16.1% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year [1] Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing [2] - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policy effects [2] - Local policies include Shanghai's efforts to improve fair competition review mechanisms and Henan's support for local governments to issue special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] - In Shenyang, the down payment for housing has been reduced to 15% until the end of 2026, while Chengdu extended its housing mutual assistance policy until the end of 2026 [2] Company Announcements - In December 2025, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Poly Development at 12.16 billion yuan (-18.9%), China Merchants Shekou at 25.84 billion yuan (-14.5%), and New Town Holdings at 1.35 billion yuan (-57.8%) [2] - China Overseas Development issued bonds with a 3-year term at an interest rate of 1.60%-2.60% and a 5-year term at 1.80%-2.80% [2] Personnel Changes - Vanke A's Yu Liang retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president [3] Investment Analysis - The real estate sector remains a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for economic circulation [3] - The 20th Central Committee's emphasis on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential policy support [3] - High-quality residential properties may see a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - The Hong Kong private residential market sentiment is gradually recovering, indicating a potential revaluation for Hong Kong developers [3] - The sector is rated "positive," with recommended companies including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and others [3]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently facing significant challenges, with a decline in GDP contribution from the real estate and construction sectors, dropping from 15% in 2019 to 12% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - The shift in housing demand from "having a house" to "having a good house" indicates a structural change in the market, with a projected annual housing demand of over 860 million square meters until 2035, primarily driven by improvement needs [7] - The report emphasizes the need for policy adjustments to address the ongoing market downturn, with potential policy directions including administrative, public fund, fiscal, urban renewal, and stock activation measures [7][9] Macro Perspective - The economy is undergoing a transformation, with a noticeable decline in the contribution of the real estate sector to GDP [7] - The population peaked in 2021 and has been declining, affecting housing demand dynamics, particularly among potential first-time buyers [7] - Employment and income expectations remain weak, impacting consumer willingness to purchase homes [7] Mid-Macro Perspective - Market transaction volumes and prices are continuously declining, with new home transactions in 100 cities down 15% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [7] - The frequency and effectiveness of local policy interventions have decreased, leading to rising inventory levels and prolonged de-stocking periods [7] - Real estate companies are experiencing significant financial strain, with funding levels dropping from 20.1 trillion yuan in 2021 to 10.8 trillion yuan in 2024 [7] Micro Perspective - Home prices in first-tier cities have seen significant declines, with second-hand home prices dropping over 35% from their peak [7] - The expectation of falling home prices is growing among residents, with 23.5% anticipating further declines as of Q3 2025 [7] - The market is witnessing a shift towards improvement-type housing, with larger units (over 120 square meters) gaining market share [7] Policy Space - Future policy adjustments are expected to focus on loosening purchase restrictions in major cities and enhancing public fund policies [9] - Fiscal measures may include subsidies for home loans and adjustments to tax policies related to property transactions [9] - Urban renewal initiatives are anticipated to expand, particularly in transforming urban villages [9] Opportunities in the Real Estate Sector - The commercial real estate sector is poised for growth by adapting to new consumer demands and creating innovative shopping experiences [9] - Residential developers focusing on core cities and high-demand housing types are likely to benefit from market shifts [9] - The report highlights the potential for real estate investment trusts (REITs) to expand, particularly in commercial properties, as the market matures [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou [9] - Smaller, agile firms that have made significant sales and land acquisition strides since 2024 are also recommended for consideration [9] - Companies innovating in the commercial real estate space, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds in the Hong Kong stock market, with Xiaomi Group, Tencent Holdings, and China Construction Bank leading in net inflows, while the Yingfu Fund, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Southern Hang Seng Technology experienced the highest net outflows [1] Group 1: Net Inflows - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 1.07 billion, representing a 16.36% increase in its closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 863 million, with a 7.49% increase in its closing price [2] - China Construction Bank (00939) had a net inflow of 699 million, with a significant 41.06% increase in its closing price [2] Group 2: Net Outflows - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the largest net outflow of 6.289 billion, reflecting a -31.44% change in its closing price [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of 2.880 billion, with a -17.89% change in its closing price [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) faced a net outflow of 1.289 billion, showing a -11.37% change in its closing price [2] Group 3: Net Inflow Ratios - 361 Degrees (01361) led with a net inflow ratio of 74.40%, with a net inflow of 8.9117 million [3] - BRILLIANCE CHI (01114) followed with a net inflow ratio of 64.04%, amounting to a net inflow of 36.4910 million [3] - Qin Port Co. (03369) had a net inflow ratio of 61.05%, with a net inflow of 846,600 [3] Group 4: Net Outflow Ratios - Wisdom Hong Kong 100 (02825) had a net outflow ratio of -100.00%, with a net outflow of -18,200 [3] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (02005) recorded a net outflow ratio of -68.86%, with a net outflow of -14.1501 million [3] - Dexion Shipping (02510) experienced a net outflow ratio of -53.53%, with a net outflow of -10.0204 million [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate market expectations and highlights the sector's significant role in the national economy and as a source of household wealth [3][50] - The report suggests that the real estate market's healthy development is crucial for overall economic stability and calls for decisive policy measures rather than piecemeal approaches [50] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6%, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.7% during the week [5][8] - Notable stock performances included Chengjian Development (+13.2%) and Sanzhong Impression (+10.7%), while Hualian Holdings (-15.5%) and Yatong Shares (-6.8%) saw significant declines [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.56 million square meters, a 2.0% decrease from the previous week [16] - For December, new housing transactions reached 10.63 million square meters, a 35.7% increase month-on-month but a 40.5% decrease year-on-year [21] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.64 million square meters, a 21.5% decrease from the previous week [34] - For December, second-hand housing transactions amounted to 9.22 million square meters, an 11.1% increase month-on-month but a 27.9% decrease year-on-year [37] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030, focusing on standards, design, materials, and construction [50] - New tax policies were introduced, reducing the value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions to 3% for properties held for less than two years, while properties held for two years or more are exempt from VAT [50] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the launch of a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality market development [50] Company Announcements - China Resources Land secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 2 billion yuan with a term of 36 months [54] - Huafa Group elected Guo Lingyong as the chairman of its board and Liu Yingzhe as vice chairman [54]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Kerry Properties, controlled by Malaysian billionaire Kuok Khoon Hong, achieved a remarkable sales performance in the Chinese real estate market, with a year-on-year increase of 1646.5%, reaching sales of 22.787 billion yuan, making it the fastest-growing company among the top 100 real estate firms in China [2][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Kerry Properties' explosive growth in sales is primarily attributed to its luxury residential project, Jinling Huating, located in Shanghai, which significantly contributed to its overall sales figures [3][4]. - The company secured land use rights for the Jinling Road project in Shanghai for a total price of 8.783 billion yuan, with cumulative land acquisition costs reaching 22.1 billion yuan for the project [3]. - In 2025, the first three phases of Jinling Huating generated over 22 billion yuan in sales, with the first phase alone achieving a record sales amount of 9.234 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Despite the impressive sales growth, Kerry Properties faced a decline in profitability, with a 30% drop in basic profit and a 22% decrease in profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 9.954 billion yuan, reflecting a 65% increase compared to the previous year, but the gross profit margin fell from 45% to 27% [8][9]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to reduced profit margins from development properties, decreased rental income, increased taxes, and rising costs [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Kerry Properties has a limited presence in other cities, with slow sales performance in second and third-tier cities, indicating a reliance on the booming luxury market in Shanghai [6][9]. - The company has adopted a conservative expansion strategy, focusing on high-end products and maintaining a steady approach to land acquisition [8]. - The chairman, Kuok Khoon Hong, expressed optimism about the long-term economic outlook for Hong Kong and mainland China, despite short-term challenges in the real estate market [9].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Kerry Properties, owned by Malaysian billionaire Kuok Khoon Hong, achieved a remarkable sales performance in the Chinese real estate market, with a sales increase of 1646.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by the success of its luxury residential project, Jinling Huating, in Shanghai [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Kerry Properties recorded a sales revenue of 22.787 billion yuan in mainland China for 2025, with approximately 22 billion yuan attributed to the Jinling Huating project [4]. - The sales figures for Jinling Huating include over 9.234 billion yuan from the first phase, 9.8 billion yuan from the second phase, and an expected 3 billion yuan from the third phase [3][4]. - The sales performance of Jinling Huating significantly contributed to Kerry Properties becoming the top-performing company in terms of sales growth among the top 100 real estate firms in China [1][4]. Group 2: Project Details - The Jinling Huating project, located in the Huangpu district of Shanghai, involved a total land acquisition cost of 22.1 billion yuan for multiple plots, with a total development area of 655,000 square meters [3][5]. - The project is characterized by high-end residential offerings, with average prices reaching 189,000 yuan per square meter for the first phase and 205,000 yuan per square meter for the second phase [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite the surge in sales, Kerry Properties faced a decline in profitability, with a 30% drop in basic profit and a 22% decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [8]. - The company's gross profit margin fell from 45% in 2024 to 27% in 2025, attributed to rising costs and reduced rental income [8]. - The financial results indicate a situation of "increased revenue without increased profit," highlighting challenges in other city projects outside Shanghai [8][9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the long-term economic prospects in Hong Kong and mainland China, despite facing significant short-term challenges in the real estate market [9]. - Kerry Properties is focusing on maintaining stability and resilience amid the ongoing fluctuations in the housing market and declining commercial property rental prices [9].

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: Kerry Properties Limited 嘉里建設有限公司（於百慕達註冊成立之有限公司） 呈交日期: 2026年1月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00683 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 ...