丙午马年 20 / 26 2025年的零售商业物业市场，正经历一场深刻的结构性调整。在宏观经济逆风与消费习惯变迁的双重压力下，不同背景、不同战略的企业呈现出截然不同 的生存图景。 本篇将梳理年内重要企业研究报道，从港资巨头的守成与求变，到内地企业的稳健与突围，再到区域标杆的坚守与徘徊，试图勾勒出这一年行业的整体样 貌。 港资房企： 巨头的守成与求变 "收租王"新鸿基抗逆有方 在港资房企阵营中，新鸿基地产依然稳坐"收租王"之位。2025财年，新鸿基连同合营企业及联营公司录得净租金收入达183.92亿港元，展现出极强的抗风 险能力。 "收租王"新鸿基，塌不了 太古地产直面分化 太古地产2025上半年营收同比增长20%，内地零售销售额已较2019年同期高出70%，香港商场则维持满租。 然而，市场分化显著。上海兴业太古汇通过引入路易威登地标"路易号"实现13.5%的销售额暴涨，而广州太古汇则因下跌2.1%。面对挑战，太古正加速战 略调整：斥资21亿扩容广州太古汇至18万㎡，同时以15万㎡的聚龙湾太古里差异化布局"滨水潮流轻奢"，与重奢项目形成互补。 太古，闪回2019 面对市场变化，新鸿基通过灵活运营稳固根基。在香港 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that new home sales during the Spring Festival period saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 9.3 million square meters sold across 16 major cities [3][13]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, driven by recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks [3]. - The report emphasizes that the fundamental bottom of the real estate sector is approaching, with expectations for quality companies to recover profits more quickly and flexibly [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities during the week before the Spring Festival totaled 192.3 million square meters, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week, but an increase of 56.6% compared to the average weekly sales this year [4]. - In February, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 88.5% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing a 96.8% increase [9]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities was reported at 8,870.4 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [54]. 2. Policy News - The report notes that the government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with various local policies being introduced to optimize housing supply and manage existing stock [3]. - Specific measures include the promotion of REITs in commercial real estate, with 12 applications submitted recently [3]. 3. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies in January showed mixed results, with China Jinmao reporting a 13.6% increase in sales, while other companies like Poly Developments saw a 13.3% decrease [3]. - The report highlights the performance of the property management sector, which has shown resilience compared to the broader market [3]. 4. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.69%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 0.36% [3]. - The report suggests that the current valuation levels for quality real estate companies are at historical lows, making them attractive for investment [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - New home sales in January showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales turned positive year-on-year [1][21] - The central bank has released favorable policies, including lowering the re-lending rate and reducing the down payment ratio for commercial properties [1][4] New Home Sales - In January, the new home sales area in 40 cities decreased by 42.3% month-on-month and by 22.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 10.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][14] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 14.0%, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.1% decline, and third and fourth-tier cities had a 41.1% decline [15][20] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home sales area in 18 cities decreased by 2.0% month-on-month but increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate improving by 41.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [21][25] - All city tiers showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand home sales, with first-tier cities growing by 15.0% year-on-year [21][30] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of January, the new home inventory area in 12 cities was 112.91 million square meters, down 0.4% month-on-month and down 6.3% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 18.1 months [28][29] - The absorption cycle for first-tier cities increased by 4.3 months year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decrease of 8.2 months [28] Land Market - The land market in January saw a transaction area decrease of 76.5% month-on-month and a 20.2% year-on-year decline, with an average land premium rate of 2.87% [1][12] - The average land price per square meter decreased by 36.8% month-on-month and by 20.9% year-on-year [13] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 49.5% year-on-year decline in land acquisition amounts, with a land acquisition intensity of 32% [1][12] - The financing scale for the real estate industry in January was 39.6 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year but up 7% month-on-month [1][14] Policy Developments - The central bank's policy changes include lowering the re-lending rate to 1.25% and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [1][4] - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has been submitted for approval, with a total expected fundraising of 31.47 billion yuan [1][4] Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in January, with an absolute return of 4.3% and a relative return of 2.7% [1][12] - The report anticipates two potential turning points in 2026: a policy turning point around the end of Q1 and a fundamental turning point around Q4 [1][12]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The 2026 real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [2] - The overall sales volume and price are projected to face pressure in Q1, with potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 to stabilize the market in Q2 [3][24] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support demand and stabilize investment, particularly focusing on the financial pressures faced by developers [8][19] Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total sales area of 810 million square meters in 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8% - The average sales price is expected to be 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year - The total sales amount is projected to be 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% decline compared to the previous year [3][22][21] Development Investment - Real estate development investment is anticipated to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2025 [4][21] - The report indicates that the decline in new construction area is expected to be 18% year-on-year, with a total of 480 million square meters [4][21] Completion Forecast - The report predicts that the completion area will be 490 million square meters in 2026, down 19% year-on-year, continuing the trend of cyclical contraction [5][21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main contradiction in the real estate market has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuing price declines," particularly affecting the second-hand housing market [9] - It suggests that the market's recovery will depend on effective policy measures and the stabilization of developer financing [8][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Developers with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities 2. Smaller developers showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new operational models in the new consumption era [9][21]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700), Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) ranked as the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.792 billion, 0.571 billion, and 0.412 billion respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow of southbound funds were Yingfu Fund (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Kuaishou-W (01024), with net outflows of -4.553 billion, -1.380 billion, and -0.576 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088), Southern East Selection (03441), and Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) led the market with ratios of 90.53%, 74.02%, and 68.27% respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow ratio were Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432), Fuyao Glass (06865), and Baize Medical (02609) with ratios of -100.00%, -59.27%, and -53.09% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 1.792 billion, representing a 12.21% increase, closing at 560.000 (+2.28%) [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) saw a net inflow of 0.571 billion, with a 6.77% increase, closing at 5.300 (+1.34%) [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 0.412 billion, with a 9.45% increase, closing at 35.200 (+0.06%) [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the highest net outflow of -4.553 billion, with a -22.13% decrease, closing at 27.220 (+1.72%) [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of -1.380 billion, representing an -11.37% decrease, closing at 93.940 (+1.56%) [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) faced a net outflow of -0.576 billion, with a -10.25% decrease, closing at 69.300 (-2.74%) [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088) led with a net inflow ratio of 90.53%, with a net inflow of 47.6883 million, closing at 6.875 (+1.33%) [3] - Southern East Selection (03441) followed with a net inflow ratio of 74.02%, with a net inflow of 18.0421 million, closing at 11.600 (+1.13%) [3] - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) had a net inflow ratio of 68.27%, with a net inflow of 5.6553 million, closing at 13.340 (-0.07%) [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in its revenue growth, with a projected increase in net profit from HKD 8.5 billion in 2025 to HKD 42.0 billion in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%, 49%, and 233% respectively [7]. - The company benefits from a dual-driven development model, focusing on both property development and investment, with a strong presence in both Hong Kong and mainland China [12]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position, with a net debt ratio of 38.4% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.5 times as of mid-2025 [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Development and Brand Building - The company has established a high-end brand through significant projects in both Hong Kong and mainland China, with a focus on core first and second-tier cities [12]. - The management team is experienced, and the ownership structure is stable, with Kerry Group Limited holding 60.23% of the shares [15][17]. - Revenue has returned to growth, with a projected total revenue of HKD 19.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a 49% year-on-year increase [20]. 2. Property Development - The company has seen a rebound in contract sales, with a 130% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to HKD 16.2 billion in the first half of 2025 [7][30]. - The flagship project, Jinling Huating, has generated significant sales, contributing approximately HKD 220 billion in total sales [41]. - The company’s sales in mainland China have surged, with a 784% increase in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, primarily driven by the success of high-end projects [34]. 3. Investment Properties and Hotels - The company’s investment properties are primarily located in first-tier and core second-tier cities, contributing stable cash flow [55]. - Despite a 5.5% decline in leasing income in the first half of 2025, the company’s investment properties are expected to provide a solid foundation for long-term value [55]. - The valuation of the investment property portfolio has increased by 13.9% year-on-year, reaching HKD 862.9 billion, with commercial properties driving this growth [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The "Yang Hai" project in Wong Chuk Hang, developed by Kerry Properties, Sino Land, and MTR Corporation, has successfully sold three units through a tender process for a total transaction amount of approximately HKD 190 million [1] Group 1: Sales Details - The sold units include three apartments located in Tower 1 (1B), specifically units on the 31st floor A, 10th floor A, and 31st floor B, with usable areas of 1,420 square feet, 1,420 square feet, and 941 square feet respectively [1] - The units feature designs of four-bedroom dual suites and three-bedroom one suite, all offering views of Deep Bay [1] Group 2: Project Performance - To date, the project has sold a total of 587 units, representing over 97% of the total inventory, with a cash collection amount exceeding HKD 14.7 billion [1] - Currently, only a limited number of three-bedroom, four-bedroom, and some top-floor specialty units remain available for sale [1]

FF301 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00683 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 10,000,000,000 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結 ...

Group 1 - As of February 4, 100 stocks reached a 52-week high, with METROPOLIS CAP (08621), Asia Backup (08290), and Wenling Tooling (01379) leading the high rate at 74.55%, 63.89%, and 57.48% respectively [1] - METROPOLIS CAP closed at 0.048 with a peak of 0.096, while Asia Backup closed at 0.032 with a peak of 0.059, and Wenling Tooling closed at 3.400 with a peak of 6.000 [1] - Other notable stocks that reached new highs include Asia Internet Technology (00679) at 46.23% and Asia Pacific Financial Investment (08193) at 25.45% [1] Group 2 - The 52-week low rankings show that Gaodi Co. (01676) had the largest decline at -45.71%, followed by Xixiang Group (02473) at -23.42% and Jianfa Xingsheng (00731) at -21.51% [3] - Gaodi Co. closed at 0.243 with a low of 0.171, while Xixiang Group closed at 2.370 with a low of 2.060, and Jianfa Xingsheng closed at 0.137 with a low of 0.135 [3] - Other significant declines include Huaxia SOL-R (83460) at -14.34% and Huaxia SOL-U (09460) at -13.97% [3]