Group 1 - The company, China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN), is the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia, backed by CGN Group, which provides a stable platform for overseas uranium resource development and financing [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds a total of approximately 34,000 tons of uranium resources from four uranium mines in Kazakhstan, utilizing in-situ leaching methods with lower mining costs than the global average [1] - The company has a stable financial structure, maintaining a debt-to-asset ratio below 50% over the past two years, and is expected to benefit from the injection of high-quality assets from CGN Group in the future [1][2] Group 2 - The company has established a robust profit model through a dual approach of self-production and international trade, with a pricing mechanism linked to spot prices, allowing for profit expansion as uranium prices rise [2] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of HKD 8.624 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 342 million, despite some impacts from tax rate adjustments [2] - The new sales agreements are expected to elevate profit margins, with a pricing mechanism that increasingly reflects market conditions [2] Group 3 - The global nuclear power revival is accelerating, with the World Nuclear Association (WNA) predicting an average annual compound growth of over 4% in natural uranium demand from 2024 to 2040 [3] - The supply-demand gap for uranium is expected to widen in the medium to long term due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments since 2015, leading to a tightening supply trend [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated high uranium prices, supported by its low-cost structure and abundant resources [3] Group 4 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of HKD 573 million, HKD 942 million, and HKD 1.183 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant year-on-year growth [3] - The company’s projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average PE of 29X for comparable companies in the US [3]

Group 1: Market Trends - The price of uranium has been recovering due to increased global nuclear energy policies, with CGN Mining (01164.HK) stock rising significantly, nearly 95% from its low of HKD 1.19 on April 9 to HKD 2.32 on July 11 [1] - In June, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) revised its agreement with Canaccord Genuity to raise approximately USD 200 million for uranium procurement, allowing for the purchase of 1,012 tons of uranium, which is double the previously stated amount [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - The U.S. nuclear policy has shifted positively, with President Trump signing four executive orders to accelerate reactor testing and enhance uranium mining and enrichment capabilities [2] - Other countries, including Germany, Belgium, and Japan, have also expressed positive statements regarding nuclear energy development, contributing to an expected increase in global nuclear power demand and tightening uranium supply [2] Group 3: Company Performance - CGN Mining's average unit sales cost for natural uranium is between USD 68-74 per pound U3O8, while the average sales price is between USD 58-61 per pound U3O8, indicating a potential negative impact on gross profit due to accounting methods [3] - The new sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium has adjusted the base price from USD 61.78 to USD 94.22 per pound U3O8, with a higher proportion of spot prices, enhancing pricing flexibility [2][3] - Analysts believe that CGN Mining will benefit from rising uranium prices and the adjusted sales pricing mechanism, leading to a positive impact on performance and valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core asset in uranium resources, benefiting from the global nuclear power recovery and a new long-term pricing mechanism that enhances performance expectations [5]. - Backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, the company has a leading global resource layout and long-term growth potential, being the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia [5][10]. - The company has a dual-driven model of "self-produced + international trade," which stabilizes growth and profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is HKD 2.26, with a market capitalization of HKD 17,177.54 million [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 86.24 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 3.42 billion [6][21]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 5.73 billion, HKD 9.42 billion, and HKD 11.83 billion, reflecting growth rates of 67.5%, 64.4%, and 25.6% respectively [8][10]. Business Model - The business model consists of self-produced trade and international trade, with the international trade segment providing stable profit through price differences [19]. - The company holds a 49% equity stake in several uranium mines in Kazakhstan, ensuring a stable supply and cost advantage [5][41]. Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing mechanism for 2026-2028 includes a base price (BP) and spot price (SP) structure, with BP set to increase annually, enhancing profit margins [6][49]. Market Outlook - The global nuclear power revival is expected to drive uranium demand, with an average annual growth rate of over 4% from 2024 to 2040 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply of uranium due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments [7]. Valuation - The company’s projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average of 29X, indicating potential undervaluation [10].

Group 1 - Company is a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Group, the largest nuclear power group in China and the third largest globally, focusing on uranium resource development and financing [1] - Company aims to become a leading international supplier of natural uranium by capitalizing on the global nuclear power recovery and increasing demand for natural uranium [1] - In 2024, the company expects to have an equity resource of 34,000 tons of uranium (tU) and an equity production of 1,324 tU, with projected revenue of HKD 8.62 billion and net profit of HKD 340 million [1] Group 2 - Company signed a sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium for the years 2026 to 2028, committing to an annual purchase of no less than 1,200 tons of natural uranium [2] - The pricing mechanism for the agreement includes a fixed price component set at USD 94.22 per pound, with annual sales caps of HKD 3.94 billion, HKD 4.40 billion, and HKD 4.56 billion for the respective years [2] Group 3 - China's nuclear power investment is expected to remain robust, with plans to approve the construction of at least 10 new reactors annually starting from 2022, leading to increased uranium demand [3] - As of the end of 2024, China is projected to have 102 operational and approved reactors, surpassing the United States and becoming the world's largest nuclear power market [3] - The company forecasts revenue growth from HKD 9.08 billion in 2025 to HKD 10.94 billion in 2027, with net profit expected to rise significantly during the same period [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a rare overseas uranium resource platform, benefiting from rising uranium prices and the global nuclear power recovery [1][2]. - The company has signed a sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium for the years 2026 to 2028, ensuring a minimum annual purchase of 1,200 tons of natural uranium, with a pricing mechanism that favors the company [2]. - The demand for uranium is expected to grow due to China's ongoing nuclear power investments, with a forecast of 10 or more new units approved annually since 2022 [3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 86.2 billion and a net profit of HKD 3.4 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the following years [1][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 90.8 billion, HKD 100.2 billion, and HKD 109.4 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 10%, and 9% [3]. - The projected net profit for the same years is HKD 6.1 billion, HKD 9.3 billion, and HKD 10.2 billion, with substantial growth rates of 79%, 51%, and 10% respectively [3][4]. Market Data - As of July 9, 2025, the closing price of the stock is HKD 2.27, with a 12-month price range of HKD 1.24 to HKD 2.58 [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 18.17 billion and a total share count of 7.601 million [5].

Group 1 - The energy transition is driving a demand inflection point, with limited new uranium supply due to low capital expenditure over the past decade, leading to a tight balance in natural uranium supply and demand [1] - Nuclear power plays a crucial role in energy transition and carbon neutrality, providing stable clean energy and supporting the recovery of the nuclear industry, with a new wave of nuclear power construction expected globally [1] - Countries like China, the US, France, and Japan are advancing nuclear power projects, which will likely increase uranium demand, while the long-term low uranium prices and limited new mining supply create a favorable environment for price increases [2] Group 2 - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) reported a production of 659.1 tons of natural uranium in Q1 2025, with a completion rate of 110.7%, and holds 1,262 tons of natural uranium with an average cost of $71.37 per pound [3] - CGN's international sales company expects a significant negative impact on gross profit due to fluctuations in market prices, with average sales costs between $68-$74 per pound and average sales prices between $58-$61 per pound for the first half of 2025 [3] - China Nuclear International, the overseas uranium resource platform of China National Nuclear Corporation, reported a significant increase in uranium trade, with sales of approximately 577,000 pounds and total revenue of HKD 1.841 billion, a year-on-year increase of 217% [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Industry Overview - The global nuclear power sector is benefiting from the demand for clean energy, energy security considerations, AI computing power needs, and advancements in Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology. It is projected that by 2050, global nuclear power installed capacity will triple, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% [2][3][4]. - Global uranium resources are abundant but unevenly distributed, with low-cost resources concentrated in a few countries. In 2022, global uranium production reached 49,400 tons, with Kazakhstan accounting for 43% as the largest producer. The expected production increase from 2025 to 2030 will fall significantly short of new demand, leading to a widening long-term supply gap [2][5][6]. Key Points on Supply and Demand - The demand for natural uranium is driven by the rapid growth of nuclear power needs, influenced by four main factors: 1. Nuclear power's clean, low-consumption, and efficient characteristics compared to traditional fossil fuels, with 22 countries committing to tripling nuclear energy by 2050 [3]. 2. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has heightened global energy security risks, prompting countries to support nuclear power development [3]. 3. The demand for stable electricity from data centers, expected to exceed Japan's total electricity consumption by 2030, aligns with nuclear power's capabilities [3]. 4. The development of SMRs enhances economic viability and safety, with CGN holding a total resource of 24,000 tons of uranium and an equity capacity of 1,899 tons [3][4]. Financial Institutions' Role - Financial institutions are increasing their holdings of physical uranium, creating secondary demand. For instance, SPUT physical trust holds 22,000 tons of natural uranium and has plans to increase its holdings [7]. - Commercial inventories are steadily declining, and government stockpiles are decreasing, exacerbating supply tightness [7]. Company-Specific Insights - CGN holds stakes in four uranium mines in Kazakhstan and has signed a new sales framework agreement with its controlling shareholder, which is expected to improve profitability due to a better pricing mechanism [2][8]. - The company’s core advantages include the anticipated rise in uranium prices and the new sales agreement, which is expected to turn around the current losses from asset trading by 2026 [8][9]. - The company’s production capacity is projected to maintain steady growth, with a total equity resource of 24,000 tons of uranium and an equity capacity of 1,899 tons [12]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from self-produced trade and international trade, with an overall growth trend. However, self-produced trade has led to a decline in gross profit due to pricing structures [11]. - The company expects to see significant profit growth starting in 2026, driven by improved pricing mechanisms and increased demand from its controlling shareholder [19]. Regulatory and Market Dynamics - Kazakhstan's resource tax will increase from 6% to 9% in 2025, which may raise overall industry costs but will not significantly impact CGN's profitability due to its low-cost mining operations [14]. - The new sales framework agreement will adjust the base price from $61.78 to $94.22, with a higher proportion of spot pricing, which reflects market expectations for rising uranium prices [15]. Conclusion - CGN is well-positioned to benefit from the overall positive trends in the nuclear power industry and the expected increase in uranium prices. The company's strategic agreements and operational efficiencies are likely to enhance its profitability and market valuation in the coming years [9][19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The global nuclear power sector is at a turning point, with long-term demand expected to rise significantly, leading to an upward trend in uranium prices. The average annual new installed capacity from 2025 to 2030 is projected to reach 13 GW, corresponding to a total initial natural uranium demand of approximately 31,200 tons [1][19]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the uranium industry, backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, and is the only publicly listed pure uranium company in East Asia. It has stakes in four uranium mines in Kazakhstan and has seen strong investment returns due to rising uranium prices [2][4]. - The company's mining production is stable, with a total equity resource of 24,000 tons of uranium and an equity capacity of 1,899 tons. Production is expected to increase from 500 tons in 2025 to 900 tons by 2029, benefiting from low-cost operations [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its sales pricing mechanism, which is expected to enhance performance significantly from 2026 onwards, as the new pricing framework increases the base price from $61.78 to $94.22 per pound of U3O8 [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Uranium Industry - The nuclear power sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by global decarbonization efforts, energy security, and advancements in small modular reactor (SMR) technology. This is expected to lead to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% in global nuclear power capacity from 2024 to 2050 [1][11]. - The supply side is facing a widening gap, with a projected increase of 15,300 tons of uranium from 2025 to 2030, which is significantly lower than the demand [1][30]. 2. Company Overview - The company is the only platform for overseas uranium resource development under China General Nuclear Power Group and has seen substantial profit growth due to rising uranium prices [2][4]. - The company’s mining operations are characterized by low production costs, which provide a competitive advantage in the market [2][3]. 3. Resource Sector - The company’s mining output is stable, with production expected to remain steady in 2025, and potential increases in capacity from 500 tons to 900 tons between 2025 and 2029 [2][3]. 4. Trade Sector - The company has benefited from a new pricing agreement that enhances its revenue potential, with significant increases in the base price for uranium sales expected to drive performance from 2026 [3][4]. - The international trade segment is positioned to improve profit margins as the company locks in favorable pricing while retaining some flexibility to benefit from rising uranium prices [3][4]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 539 million, 994 million, and 1,209 million Hong Kong dollars from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.07, 0.13, and 0.16 Hong Kong dollars [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - CGN Mining has signed a new sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium Resources Co., Ltd. for the period from January 2026 to December 2028, which is expected to enhance pricing flexibility and boost sales prices due to a higher forecasted natural uranium price [1][2]. Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing formula for natural uranium is set at 30% of the forecasted price of US$94.22 per pound, with an annual escalation factor of 1.041, and 70% based on the latest spot price at the time of delivery [1]. - The previous pricing mechanism for 2023-2025 was 40% of the forecasted price of US$61.78 per pound and 60% based on the latest spot price [1]. Market Expectations - The forecasted natural uranium price of US$94.22 per pound is significantly higher than the average spot price of US$71 per pound and the long-term contract price of US$80 per pound, indicating a bullish outlook for uranium prices [1][2]. - The increase in the proportion of the latest spot price indicator from 60% to 70% in the new agreement allows CGN Mining to benefit from rising spot market trends [3]. Production Guidance - CGN Mining has provided production guidance for its subsidiaries, estimating contracted sales volumes of 1,438 tU in 2026, 1,617 tU in 2027, and 1,598 tU in 2028 [4]. Financial Projections - Following the new sales framework agreement and anticipated uranium price increases, CGN Mining has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 14% and 31%, respectively, to HK$611 million and HK$1.00 billion [5]. - The stock is currently trading at 26.5x 2025 estimated P/E and 16.3x 2026 estimated P/E, with a target price of HK$2.51, suggesting an 18% upside [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining is on a fast track for development, with projected revenues and net profits showing significant growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is the only platform for overseas uranium resource development under CGN Group, with its parent company being China Uranium Development Co., Ltd., controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1] - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth following acquisitions, including the purchase of a 49% stake in a foreign company, leading to a substantial increase in uranium sales volume [1] Group 2 - The company benefits from three major advantages: strong internal demand for nuclear power from CGN Group, a broad potential market for growth, and more flexible pricing under new agreements [2] - The production cost of the company's uranium is among the lowest globally, with its mining operations expected to ramp up production as sulfuric acid supply stabilizes [2] Group 3 - The uranium market is currently experiencing a tight supply situation, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and a slow recovery in production from existing mines [3] - Although uranium prices have dipped to around $64 per pound due to low long-term contract activity, demand is expected to recover as nuclear power initiatives gain momentum in both China and the U.S. [3] - The overall supply growth is projected to be around 8.51% in 2024 and 6.03% in 2025, with a slowdown anticipated in 2026, while demand remains strong due to investments and the recovery of nuclear power installations [3]