证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 中国黄金国际（02099.HK） | 总股本（百万股） | 396 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 396 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 33.6 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 33.6 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 4.9 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.2 | | 资产负债率 | 36.3% | | 主要股东 | 中国黄金集团香港有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 40.0058% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 22 84 106 相对表现 21 76 62 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -50 0 50 100 150 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 (%) 中国黄金国际 恒生指数 半年度业绩超预期，期待甲玛矿未来产能提升 周期/金属及材料 公司 2025H1 实现营业收入 41.5 亿元，同比+179.6%，实现归母净利润 14.3 亿元，同比+735%。2025Q2 实现营业收入 22.0 亿元，同比/环比分别 +108.6%/+12.5%，实现归母净 ...

国盛证券指出，8月1日大幅下修的就业人数显示美国政策利率仍然处于限制性区间，降息的大方向已经 确立；市场所担心的通胀对美联储降息路径的限制，已被鲍威尔打开；原本美国就因有通胀的压力，降 息可能为通胀再添把火，进一步推升金价上行；影子联储挑战美联储独立性，也进一步增强降息交易。 此外，瑞银预计，来自美国的动力将推动黄金涨势延续至明年，该行将明年6月底的黄金目标价预期上 调了200美元至每盎司3700美元。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股全线走高，截至发稿，紫金矿业(02899)涨3.58%，报23.7港元；中国黄金国 际(02099)涨3.24%，报87.6港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨1.92%，报11.16港元；山东黄金(01787)涨1.95%， 报27.2港元。 消息面上，8月22日晚，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会中态度明显转鸽，发言内容强调就业面临的下行风险 上升，风险的平衡转变，可能需要调整政策。美联储发布修订版《长期目标与货币政策策略声明》，回 归"灵活通胀目标制"。会议过后，交易员对美联储9月份降息预期由75%提升至90%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The dovish remarks from Powell have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, benefiting the prices of precious and base metals [3][41] - The market is beginning to price in the likelihood of a rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a September cut to 91.1% following Powell's comments [3][41] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary policy and debt are expected to support gold prices, with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act projected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [3][15] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while silver rose by 2.26% to $38.88 per ounce [1][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 276,237.73 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 6,992,897.80 ounces [24] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 1.19% to 87.89, indicating a potential recovery in silver prices due to increased industrial demand [1][43] Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 0.37% to $9,796.50 per ton on the LME, while aluminum increased by 0.73% to $2,622.00 per ton [6][48] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines continue to tighten raw material availability, with Peru's copper production increasing by 7.1% year-on-year [7][68] - The market anticipates a cautious improvement in consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [7][70] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at 18,920 yuan per ton, with tight inventory levels among producers [81] - Molybdenum prices have shown positive trends, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 3.60% to 287,500 yuan per ton [14][82] - The demand for molybdenum is expected to remain strong, supported by tight supply conditions [14][82]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market has shown a "N" shaped trend this year, with a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds re-emerging as market dynamics shift [1][25] - The bond market's main narrative has changed, indicating that current market behavior is driven more by risk appetite and asset reallocation rather than fundamental or liquidity factors [25][26] - The "look at stocks, act on bonds" strategy may continue in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize in the range of 1.75%-1.80% [1][28] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks reported a net profit of 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%, but with signs of marginal improvement compared to the first quarter [3] - City commercial banks showed the most significant performance improvement, with a total profit of 176.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10% but a notable increase in growth rate [3] - The outlook for the banking sector suggests that net interest margins may stabilize in the short term due to regulatory controls on deposit renewals and interbank rates [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Baiyunshan (600332) achieved a revenue of 41.835 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, with a net profit of 2.516 billion yuan, down 1.31% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its health product segment and enhancing its international market presence, with significant growth in overseas revenue [6][9] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to increased competition and insufficient demand, lowering expected revenues to 78.013 billion yuan and 81.185 billion yuan respectively [9] Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - Kunlun Energy (00135) reported a revenue of 97.543 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, with a total gas sales volume growth of 10.05% [42][43] - The company's LNG processing and transportation segment performed well, achieving record profitability despite a slight decrease in revenue [43][44] - The outlook for the energy sector remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in gas sales and operational efficiency improvements [43][44] Group 5: Retail and Consumer Goods - Xiaoshangcheng (600415) reported a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, with a net profit growth of 16.78% [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its trade services and has successfully completed trials for various consumer goods, indicating strong potential for future growth [10] - The outlook for the retail sector is optimistic, with expectations for continued growth driven by new market openings and the Belt and Road Initiative [10]

机构：天风证券 研究员：刘奕町/曾先毅 受益金铜价格上行，业绩同比高增 公司25H1 实现营收41.55 亿元，yoy+178.36%，实现归母净利润14.34 亿元，同比+732.36%；其中Q2 实 现营收22 亿元，同比+107.7%，环比+12.5%，归母净利润8.25 亿元，同比+2244.8%，环比+35.6%。 长山壕矿：25H1 产量年化超过全年指引，成本稳中有降量：25H1 黄金产量1.43 吨，Q1/2 分别为 0.74/0.69 吨。25H1 黄金销售1.7吨，Q1/2 分别0.9/0.79 吨。 甲玛矿：年化产量超指引，折价系数、副产收益环比升高，成本环比下降量：25H1 黄金产量1.36 吨， Q1/2 分别为0.7/0.66 吨；25H1 黄金销售1.3吨，Q1/2 分别0.65 吨。25H1 铜产量3.5 万吨，Q1/2 分别 1.7/1.8 万吨；25H1铜销售3.4 万吨，Q1/2 分别1.7/1.8 万吨。H1 副产银86 吨，铅2.1 万吨，锌1.1 万吨， 钼453 吨。 价：25H1 伦铜均价9442 美元/吨，Q1/2 分别为9340/9480 美元/盎司；金银等副 ...

Group 1 - A total of 85 stocks reached a 52-week high as of August 20, with notable performers including Xie Ruilin (00417) at 90.83%, Wanbao Gang Group (01213) at 47.76%, and Jin Zhi Zun Group (02882) at 45.21% [1] - The closing prices and highest prices for the top three stocks are as follows: Xie Ruilin at 1.390 and 2.290, Wanbao Gang Group at 0.455 and 0.495, and Jin Zhi Zun Group at 1.020 and 1.060 [1] - Other significant stocks that reached new highs include International Yongsheng Group (06663) at 41.41% and Hengdu Group (00725) at 41.18% [1] Group 2 - The report also lists stocks that reached new lows, with Shanghai Pioneer Holdings (01345) showing a decline of 11.47% and Hongyu Smart City Services (00265) down by 8.97% [3] - Other stocks with notable declines include Hometown Interactive (03798) at -5.56% and Fan Yuan International (02516) at -3.23% [3] - The lowest prices recorded for these stocks include Shanghai Pioneer at 1.590 and Hongyu Smart City at 0.710 [3]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中国黄金国际（02099） 证券研究报告 产量超预期，成本持续优化，业绩同比高增 受益金铜价格上行，业绩同比高增 公司 25H1 实现营收 41.55 亿元，yoy+178.36%，实现归母净利润 14.34 亿 元，同比+732.36%；其中 Q2 实现营收 22 亿元，同比+107.7%，环比+12.5%， 归母净利润 8.25 亿元，同比+2244.8%，环比+35.6%。 长山壕矿：25H1 产量年化超过全年指引，成本稳中有降 量：25H1 黄金产量 1.43 吨，Q1/2 分别为 0.74/0.69 吨。25H1 黄金销售 1.7 吨，Q1/2 分别 0.9/0.79 吨。 投资建议：基于金铜价格上行、矿产成本下降的考虑，我们上调公司 25/26/27 年盈利预测至 27.2/30.9/40.6 亿元（前值 22.0/26.0/36.3 亿元）， 对应当前 PE 10.6/9.3/7.1X。我们看好公司金铜价格上行趋势，看好公司成 长潜力，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：矿产量不及预期的风险，矿山成本大幅上升的风险，金铜价格 大幅波动的风险，测算存在误差的风险。 价：25H ...

Core Viewpoint - China Gold International (02099) has seen a significant increase in stock price, reaching a historical high of 84.15 HKD, driven by strong financial performance in its recent interim results for 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a sales revenue of 580 million USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 178.36% [1] - Mining operating profit reached 277 million USD, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 1443.71% [1] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was 200 million USD, a turnaround from a loss of 31.67 million USD in the same period last year [1] Market Outlook - Industrial analysts at Industrial Securities express optimism regarding the long-term outlook for gold and copper prices, particularly in light of rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The company’s Longshanhao gold mine has stabilized production, and the Jiama mine is planning to commence the third phase of tailings storage in the first half of 2027, which is expected to enhance mining capacity and restore production levels [1]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Chow Sang Sang (00116) surged over 18%, expecting a mid-term profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 900 million to 920 million [1] - XPeng Motors (09868) rose over 4%, reporting a 125.3% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, achieving a historical high for a single quarter [1] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382) increased over 6%, with a 52.56% year-on-year rise in mid-term profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - China Gold International (02099) gained over 3%, reporting a turnaround to profitability in the first half of 2025, supported by a rich resource reserve and stable production [1] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) fell over 8%, announcing a 6.5% discount on a placement to raise nearly HKD 3.9 billion for innovative drug development [1] - Pop Mart (09992) rose over 6%, with adjusted net profit in the first half of 2025 increasing 3.6 times year-on-year [1] - Kunlun Energy (00135) dropped over 3%, reporting a 4.36% year-on-year decrease in mid-term profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Other Stocks - Gilead Sciences (01672) fell over 8%, announcing a placement to raise a net amount of HKD 468 million, while its controlling shareholder cashed out nearly HKD 390 million [2] - Yixin Group (02858) rose over 1%, reporting a 28% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, with financial technology revenue soaring 124% [2] - Lithium stocks declined, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) both dropping nearly 6%, amid inventory pressure in the lithium carbonate spot market [2] Group 3: US Stocks - Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US) rose 3.06%, exceeding expectations in Q4 earnings and providing optimistic guidance for future earnings [3] - BHP Group (BHP.US) increased 0.51%, reporting dividends exceeding expectations despite weak iron ore and coal prices [3] - NIO (NIO.US) rose 4.11%, with its L90 model delivering 6,400 units in 20 days since launch, with the factory operating at full capacity [3] - New Oriental (EDU.US) fell 2.79%, influenced by a drop in Oriental Selection's stock, while denying regulatory investigation rumors [3] - Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US) plummeted 42.12% after reporting adverse side effects in its experimental obesity drug trials [4] - Arm (ARM.US) dropped 5.00%, as it hired Amazon's AI chip director to advance its chip development plans [4] - Home Depot (HD.US) rose 3.17%, reaching a new high since January, with Q2 net sales meeting market expectations [4] - Best Buy (BBY.US) increased 3.20%, launching a third-party online shopping platform to expand product variety [4] - Nexstar Media Group (NXST.US) rose 0.65%, announcing a $6.2 billion acquisition of Tegna [4] - Aurora Innovation (AUR.US) fell over 8%, closing down 7.14% after a short-seller report questioned its profit potential [5] - Boeing (BA.US) dropped 3.19%, with Airbus A320 deliveries expected to surpass Boeing's soon [5]

消息面上，中国黄金国际近日发布2025年中期业绩，销售收入5.8亿美元，同比增加178.36%；矿山经营 盈利2.77亿美元，同比增加1443.71%；股东应占溢利2亿美元，上年同期股东应占亏损3167.4万美元， 同比扭亏为盈。公告称，黄金平均实现售价由2024年首六个月的每盎司2285美元上升35%至2025年同期 的每盎司3094美元。长山壕矿的黄金销量为52893盎司(黄金产量：45829盎司)，而2024年同期为39951 盎司(黄金产量：40257盎司)。 兴业证券认为，美联储降息预期升温，中长期看好黄金及铜价格中枢上移。长山壕金矿生产恢复稳定， 甲玛矿规划27H1投产三期尾矿库并着手提高采矿证载能力，届时产量有望恢复至尾砂外溢前水平。国 信证券指出，考虑到公司金、铜产品组合，资源储量丰富，产量稳中有升，给予公司2025年12-13倍估 值目标，相对于目前股价有约18%-28%上涨空间，首次覆盖，给予"优于大市"评级。 中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨超5%，高见84.15港元创历史新高。截至发稿，涨5.28%，报83.75港 元，成交额7186.65万港元。 ...