Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.63 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, while net profit increased by 240.9% to 278 million CNY [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 349 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.2% [1] - The company is the largest recruitment training institution in China, with a unique online gene [1] - Despite a decrease in industry concentration, the company continues to focus on high-quality teaching services, leading to improved profit margins [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from training services and book sales was 1.379 billion CNY and 252 million CNY, respectively, both down by 3.1% and 3.0% year-on-year [1] - Training services account for 75% of total revenue, with small class courses generating 1.026 billion CNY, representing 63% of total revenue [1] - The company expects an increase in enrollment due to current employment trends, although the decrease in industry concentration may pressure customer pricing [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved to 54.2%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, with training services and book sales gross margins at 57.9% and 33.6%, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit margin reached 21.4%, a year-on-year increase of 4.3 percentage points, marking a new high since the company went public [1] Share Buyback Activity - The company repurchased shares worth approximately 154 million HKD, canceling 35.87 million shares, reflecting confidence in long-term business prospects [1] - The total share capital is now approximately 2.239 billion shares [1] Future Profit Projections - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of 452 million CNY, 478 million CNY, and 519 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit projections are 553 million CNY, 578 million CNY, and 619 million CNY for the same years [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 11, and 10 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1]

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 考试错期扰动收入，利润率持续修复 粉笔(2469) [Table_Industry] 教育产业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——粉笔 2024 年中期业绩点评 [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： 2.84 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------| | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | | 52 周内股价区间（港元） | 2.53-5.45 | | 当前股本（百万股） | 2,239 | | 当前市值（百万港元） | 6,359 | -41% -28% -14% -1% 13% 26% 2023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/7 52周内股价走势图 粉笔 恒生指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 考试错期扰动收入，小班运营持续发力 2024.07.26 小班模型跑通持续发力，盈利能力提升 2024.03.30 成本结构持续优化 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·支援服务(HS) 粉笔（02469.HK） 2024 年中报点评：收入端承压，经调整净利 润受益于经营效率提升仍实现同比+21% 2024 年 08 月 26 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2828 | 3021 | 3032 | 3319 | 3634 | | 同比(%) | (17.71) | 6.84 | 0.35 | 9.48 | 9.49 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (2,087.35) | 188.57 | 451.92 | 550.98 | 664.95 | | 同比(%) | (2.02) | 109.03 | 139.66 | 21.92 | 20.69 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易/专营零售 证券研究报告 粉笔（2469.HK）公司半年报点评 2024 年 8 月 26 日 股票数据 8[T月ab23le日_S收t盘oc价k（In港fo元] ） 3.00 52 周股价波动（港元） 2.37-15.04 总股本/流通 H 股（百万股） 22/22 总市值/流通市值（百万港元） 67/67 [《Ta经b调le净_R利e4p.5o亿rtI元nf，o小] 班拓展第二增长曲线》 《线上扩张线下提效，OMO 模式高效协同》 | --- | |------------| | 相关研究 | | 2024.04.03 | 2023.09.24 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M [Table_AuthorInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 绝对涨幅（%） | 3.8 | -32.1 | -25.7 | | 相对涨幅（%） | 3.0 | -29.8 | -20.4 | | 资 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Viewpoints - Revenue decline in H1 2024 primarily due to scheduling conflicts between public institution and civil service exams, impacting enrollment numbers [2] - Net profit increased significantly due to improved gross margin, reduced administrative expenses, and other income gains [2] - Adjusted net profit margin rose to 21.4%, up 4.3 percentage points, driven by reduced management expenses and other income turning positive [3] - AI technology adoption enhanced teaching efficiency, contributing to a 3.3 percentage point increase in gross margin to 54.2% [3] - Contract liabilities grew by 12.7% to 212 million yuan, providing a solid foundation for future education business [3] Business Performance - Training services and book sales revenues decreased by 3% each to 1.379 billion yuan and 252 million yuan respectively in H1 2024 [3] - Small class training (OMO) revenue increased by 8% to 1.026 billion yuan, accounting for 74% of total training revenue [3] - Online learning platform's average monthly active users remained stable at 9.2 million, with a slight increase of 100,000 users quarter-over-quarter [3] Financial Metrics - H1 2024 revenue/net profit/adjusted net profit/operating cash flow were 1.63 billion yuan/278 million yuan/349 million yuan/235 million yuan, with year-over-year changes of +3.10%/+240.90%/+21.20%/-37.46% [2] - Gross margin for training services and book sales improved to 57.9% and 33.6% respectively, up 4.0 and 0.8 percentage points [3] - Adjusted net profit margin increased to 21.4%, up 4.3 percentage points, primarily due to reduced management expenses and other income turning positive [3] Future Outlook - Potential for market share gains, price increases in large class training, and further penetration in small class training [4] - AI technology expected to further enhance teaching and after-class service efficiency, offering significant cost-saving opportunities [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 adjusted downward to 3.034 billion yuan/3.323 billion yuan/3.646 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit forecasts revised to 552 million yuan/646 million yuan/740 million yuan [4]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 粉笔(2469.HK) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_A 范欣悦 uthor教育人服 ] 行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------------| | 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 | 127号金隅大厦 | | B座 | | | 邮编：100031 | | [Table_Title] 中报利润表现靓丽，盈利能力显著提升 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_S 事件：24H1 ummar，公司实现收入 y] 16.3 亿元、同减 3.1%，净利润 2.78 亿元、同 增 240.9%，经调整净利润 3.49 亿元、同增 21.2%。 点评： ➢ 事业单位考试错期影响收入。24H1 公司收入略有下滑 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,630,470 thousand, a decrease of 3.1% compared to RMB 1,682,333 thousand for the same period in 2023[2] - Gross profit increased to RMB 883,203 thousand, up 3.2% from RMB 855,680 thousand year-on-year[2] - Net profit for the period was RMB 277,739 thousand, significantly up from RMB 81,476 thousand in the previous year, representing a growth of 240.5%[2] - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) rose to RMB 349,097 thousand, compared to RMB 288,040 thousand for the same period in 2023, marking a 21.2% increase[2] - The total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 286,310 thousand, compared to RMB 147,285 thousand for the same period in 2023, an increase of 94.5%[5] - Cash flow from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 234,690 thousand, down from RMB 375,247 thousand in the same period of 2023, representing a decrease of approximately 37.5%[14] - The company reported a total expenditure of RMB 1,373,281 thousand in H1 2024, down from RMB 1,593,847 thousand in H1 2023, a decrease of about 13.8%[27] - Net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 277.7 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 17.0%[73] - Gross profit margin improved to 54.2% for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 50.9% for the same period in 2023[87] - Net profit margin increased to 17.0% for the six months ended June 30, 2024, from 4.8% for the same period in 2023[87] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 2,020,917 thousand, down from RMB 2,122,508 thousand at the end of 2023[6] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 751,107 thousand from RMB 854,764 thousand at the end of 2023, indicating a reduction of 12.1%[9] - As of June 30, 2024, the total equity attributable to the company's shareholders is RMB 1,269,810 thousand, a slight increase from RMB 1,267,744 thousand on January 1, 2024[10] - The company’s accumulated losses as of June 30, 2024, were RMB (4,047,340) thousand, a decrease from RMB (4,325,079) thousand on January 1, 2024[10] - Trade payables decreased from RMB 30,283,000 as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 28,069,000 as of June 30, 2024, a reduction of about 7.3%[49] - Deferred tax assets as of June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 62,326,000, down from RMB 64,036,000 as of December 31, 2023, indicating a decrease of approximately 2.7%[51] Employee and Operational Metrics - The company had 7,564 employees as of June 30, 2024, an increase from 7,325 at the end of 2023[3] - Employee benefits expenses decreased to RMB 678,418 thousand in H1 2024 from RMB 964,109 thousand in H1 2023, a reduction of approximately 29.7%[27] - The total employee cost for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 678.4 million, which includes salaries, bonuses, and other employee benefits[91] - The company has adopted various employee incentive plans, including stock option plans, to promote long-term development[91] - The company maintains a strong commitment to employee training and development to ensure effective skill acquisition and professional ethics[91] Revenue Breakdown - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the total segment revenue was RMB 1,713,959,000, with training services contributing RMB 1,378,783,000 and book sales contributing RMB 335,176,000[21] - The revenue from external customers for training services was RMB 1,378,783,000, while for book sales it was RMB 251,687,000, totaling RMB 1,630,470,000[21] - Online learning products generated revenue of approximately RMB 645 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[55] - Large class training courses recorded revenue of approximately RMB 265.7 million for the same period[56] - Small class training courses achieved revenue of approximately RMB 1,025.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[56] - Other training courses contributed approximately RMB 22.7 million in revenue for the same period[56] Cash Flow and Investments - The company experienced a net cash outflow of RMB 378,316 thousand from financing activities in the first half of 2024, contrasting with a net cash inflow of RMB 78,429 thousand in the same period of 2023[15] - The net cash used in investing activities was RMB 157,223 thousand for the first half of 2024, compared to a net cash outflow of RMB 228,329 thousand in the same period of 2023[15] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of June 30, 2024, stood at RMB 689,444 thousand, down from RMB 1,335,329 thousand at the end of June 30, 2023[15] Corporate Governance and Future Outlook - The company has complied with all applicable corporate governance code provisions during the reporting period, except for the separation of the roles of Chairman and CEO[95] - The company anticipates stable revenue growth while maintaining high-quality teaching standards and optimizing profit margins and operational efficiency[57] - Forward-looking statements in the announcement are based on the board's current beliefs and expectations, subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ significantly[99] - The interim report for the six months ending June 30, 2024, will be sent to shareholders upon request and published on the company's website[100] - The company expresses gratitude to shareholders, customers, suppliers, business partners, and employees for their support and dedication[101]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company's revenue has been slightly disturbed due to exam schedule changes and intensified industry competition, leading to a performance forecast that is slightly below expectations for H1 2024. However, the small class operations continue to show strong performance, and there is potential for OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) collaborative growth [3]. - The adjusted net profit for FY2024-2026 is projected to be 5.46 billion, 6.26 billion, and 7.15 billion RMB respectively, with a target price set at 3.85 HKD based on a 15x PE for FY2024 [3]. - The company anticipates H1 2024 revenue of no less than 16.10 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decline of no more than 4.3%, while net profit is expected to be no less than 2.55 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of at least 212.9% [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company has released a semi-annual performance forecast indicating that H1 2024 revenue will be no less than 16.10 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of up to 4.3%. The net profit is expected to be no less than 2.55 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of at least 212.9% [3]. - The adjusted net profit, excluding share-based payments and fair value losses, is projected to be no less than 3.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of no less than 13.5% [3]. Revenue and Profit Drivers - The growth in profit is attributed to several factors: 1. Continuous investment in technology and the leading application of AI in teaching and course products, enhancing teacher utilization efficiency and income contribution per teacher. 2. Improved operational efficiency through technology, leading to optimized employee costs and expected increases in gross and net profit margins for H1 2024. 3. A significant reduction in share-based payments recognized in H1 2024 [3]. Challenges and Opportunities - Revenue has been impacted by the early scheduling of civil service exams and increased price competition within the industry, alongside a weakening consumer environment affecting payment capabilities [3]. - The company is focusing on small class operations, leveraging strong product development capabilities and a large user base. The strategy includes enhancing the product matrix to meet diverse learning needs and driving growth in paid user numbers [3]. - The OMO strategy aims to improve teaching efficiency and experience through deep integration of online and offline services, supported by a strong reputation and low-cost conversion advantages [3]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates that the company expects adjusted net profits to grow steadily over the next few years, with specific figures for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 being 5.46 billion, 6.26 billion, and 7.15 billion RMB respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of no less than 1.61 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, representing a decrease of no more than 5% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to be no less than 260 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of at least 213% [1]. - The improvement in performance for the first half of 2024 is attributed to the company's commitment to technological investment, particularly in artificial intelligence, which has enhanced operational efficiency and teacher utilization rates [1]. - The company has accelerated its research and development in AI, becoming the first in the vocational education sector to launch a self-developed domain-specific large model, aiming to innovate education through technology [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price set at 2.53 HKD [1]. Financial Performance - The company expects to report a revenue of at least 1.61 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, with a net profit of no less than 260 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [1]. - Adjusted forecasts for 2024-2026 project revenues of 3.15 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 3.9 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits of 550 million RMB, 630 million RMB, and 730 million RMB [1]. Technological Advancements - The application of AI technology has significantly improved the efficiency of tutoring services, with one tutor now able to serve up to 150 students, a 275% increase in efficiency compared to previous years [1]. - The company aims to integrate advanced technology, quality services, and educational resources to enhance the user experience and expand the "AI + Education" application scenarios [1].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 粉笔(2469.HK) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_A 范欣悦 uthor教育人服 ] 行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 利润稳定增长，考试错期影响收入 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 7 月 26 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布正面盈利预告， ummary] 24H1，实现收入超过 16.1 亿元、同减 4.3% 以内，实现净利润超过 2.55 亿元、同增超过 212.9%，实现经调整净利润超 过 3.27 亿元、同增超过 13.5%。 点评： ➢ 剔除事业单位考试错期影响，估计收入小幅增长。事业单位联考笔试时 间从往年的 5 月提前至 3 月 30 日，根据我们的统计，共 20 个省/地区 参加；而今年公务员省 ...