Summary of Greentown Service (2869.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Greentown Service (GTS) - **Ticker**: 2869.HK - **Industry**: Property Management Services (PMS) Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Core Operating Profit**: Increased by 25% year-on-year (yoy), exceeding management's guidance of 15% yoy and Goldman Sachs' estimate of 17% yoy [1][3] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Improved by 0.5 percentage points (pp) yoy, with all sub-segments showing yoy GPM increases [1] - **PMS Revenue**: Grew by 10% yoy, contributing 71% to total revenue, marking a return to record levels since 2016 [1][3] - **Accounts Receivable (AR)**: Expanded by 14% yoy, with management optimizing AR structure to maintain a healthy balance [1][9] - **Cash Reserves**: Increased by 26% yoy, totaling over Rmb1.1 billion net addition [1][8] Management Guidance and Future Outlook - **FY25 Guidance**: Maintained core operating profit growth target of 15% yoy, supported by double-digit PMS revenue growth and further margin improvements [3][4] - **Long-term Margin Outlook**: Management aims for continued GPM improvement and SG&A ratio optimization through 2026-2027 [3][4] - **Project Engagement**: Focused on high-profitability projects in core cities, with a target of Rmb4 billion in new contracts for FY25 [4] Operational Insights - **Project Sourcing**: 95% of new projects located in core cities, with significant contributions from large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [4][7] - **Community Living Services**: Efforts to enhance revenue generation through community services, early childhood education, and elderly care [4] - **Organizational Streamlining**: Continued efforts to reduce SG&A expenses, which decreased to 7.9% of total revenue [1][7] Risks and Challenges - **Community VAS Revenue**: Experienced a decline of 6% yoy, primarily due to a significant drop in home living services [9] - **AR Impairment Loss**: Increased by 34% yoy, indicating potential collection challenges [9] - **Market Competition**: Facing intensified competition in the property management sector, which may impact margins [4][15] Investment Thesis - **Rating**: Buy - **12-Month Target Price**: Revised to HK$6.3 from HK$5.0, based on a 12X 2027E free cash flow valuation [6][15] - **Valuation Comparison**: GTS trades at a lower P/E ratio compared to peers, with a projected 25% EPS CAGR and a 6% yield [6] Conclusion - Greentown Service is positioned for continued growth and profitability, supported by strong project engagement and effective cost management strategies. However, potential risks related to revenue declines in certain segments and market competition should be monitored closely.

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in the real estate service industry despite a decline in new residential projects, emphasizing the importance of seizing the current market opportunities to lead the next phase of development [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.289 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] - The gross profit margin increased to 19.5%, while core operating profit rose to 1.074 billion yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders was 613 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [1] Business Segments - Property services remain the largest source of revenue and profit, generating 6.633 billion yuan, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [1] - Park services contributed 1.356 billion yuan, making up 14.6% of total revenue, while consulting services generated 1.299 billion yuan, representing 14.0% of total revenue [1] Cash Management - The company's cash and time deposits increased by 26.5% year-on-year, reaching 5.45 billion yuan, indicating a strong cash reserve [2] - Accounts receivable rose to 6.8 billion yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year, with 69% of the balance being less than one year old, suggesting manageable risk [2] Strategic Focus - The company plans to enhance cash collection efforts in the second half of the year, aiming for a comprehensive collection rate not lower than the previous year and ensuring operating cash flow covers net profit by more than one time [2] - The management emphasized the need for deepening reforms and focusing on 56 core cities to increase market share and achieve a target of 4 billion yuan in new value for the year [2] Industry Outlook - The chairman noted that the recent trend of property fee reductions in some cities is a result of price competition, and the company aims to differentiate through service quality and value creation [3] - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency and organizational reform to strengthen its resilience and sustainable growth [3] - The industry is shifting towards a more mature and sustainable development model, focusing on core services and improving service quality [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 70% to 80% probability of Green Town Services (02869) stock price rising in the next 15 days, with an upgraded rating to "Overweight" and a target price of HKD 5.18 [1] Financial Performance - Green Town Services reported a solid performance in the first half of the year, with core profit increasing by 25% year-on-year on a comparable basis, making it one of the fastest-growing companies in the property management sector [1] - The strong profit margin expansion exceeded expectations, indicating robust operational execution under the new management team [1] Market Outlook - The performance results enhance visibility for annual profit growth and may lead to upward revisions in market forecasts [1] - The company is on track to expand with new contracts worth RMB 1.5 billion [1]

大摩发布研报称，预计绿城服务(02869)股价未来15天上升，发生几率料达70%至80%。对该股评级增 持，目标价5.18港元。报告指，绿城服务上半年业绩稳固，在可比基础上核心溢利同比增长25%，是物 业管理板块中增长率最高的公司之一，主要由于利润率扩张较预期强劲。该行认为业绩证明公司在新管 理团队的领导下执行力强劲，增加了全年盈利增长的能见度，并可能导致市场预测上调。此外，公司亦 正按计划扩展15亿元人民币的新合约。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported slightly better-than-expected performance for 1H25, with revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a core operating profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue from basic property management services, which accounts for about 70% of total revenue, grew by 10% year-on-year, solidifying the overall growth foundation [1] - The new annualized contract income reached 1.52 billion yuan, comparable to the same period last year, with a 5 percentage point increase in the proportion of core city projects to 95% [1] - The average property fee for new contracts was 3.7 yuan per square meter per month, compared to 3.2 yuan for existing contracts [1] - The gross profit margins for property services, park services, and consulting services increased by 0.4, 3.2, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in overall gross profit margin [1] - Selling and administrative expenses decreased by 9% year-on-year, with the expense ratio down by 1.3 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong cash position, with total cash (including cash and time deposits) of approximately 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Trade and other receivables grew by 12% year-on-year, while operating cash outflow was 400 million yuan, slightly up from 360 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company is expected to maintain an active shareholder return policy, with a payout ratio exceeding 70% over the past two years and a cumulative repurchase amount of approximately 60 million yuan in 1H25 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company aims for quality growth and cash profit, with an annualized churn rate of 4-5% over the past three years, and is expected to continue improving profit margins [2] - Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with core operating profit expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, reaching 1.83 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively [2] - The target price has been raised by 8% to 6.0 HKD, corresponding to a 19 times target P/E ratio for 2025, indicating an 18% upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved an operating income of 9.29 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. The growth rate of net profit outpaced that of revenue mainly due to improved gross margin and decreased sales and management expense ratios [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 9.29 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sales expense ratio was 1.5%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the management expense ratio was 6.4%, down 1.0 percentage points [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s property management service revenue reached 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 15.3%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The managed area reached 540 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [2]. - The company is focusing on prudent expansion and enhancing the quality of its project reserves by deepening its presence in high-quality existing projects and actively exiting non-core cities and projects with delivery risks [2]. Professional Services - The company’s park services and consulting services showed mixed revenue performance in the first half of 2025, with park service revenue at 1.36 billion yuan, down 6.0%, and consulting service revenue at 1.30 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6%. However, both services saw improvements in gross margins, with park services at 26.6% and consulting services at 33.1%, up 3.2 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [3]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast and buy rating, predicting EPS of 0.30, 0.35, and 0.39 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 15.4 times for 2025. The company’s high growth in performance and steady improvement in operational quality and efficiency support this outlook [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its profit forecast for Greentown Service (02869), expecting a 15% year-on-year growth in core operating profit for 2025-26, reaching 1.83 billion and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with a 17% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 920 million and 1.07 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported 1H25 results with revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year increase; core operating profit of 1.07 billion yuan, a 25% increase; and net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, a 23% increase, slightly exceeding expectations [2] - The basic property management business, accounting for about 70% of revenue, grew by 10% year-on-year, solidifying the company's overall growth foundation [3] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - Profit margins across various business segments improved, with property services, park services, and consulting services' gross margins increasing by 0.4, 3.2, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, leading to a 0.5 percentage point increase in overall gross margin [4] - Selling and administrative expenses decreased by 9% year-on-year, with the expense ratio declining by 1.3 percentage points [4] Group 3: Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company has ample cash on hand, with broad cash (cash and time deposits) amounting to 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14 billion yuan year-on-year; trade and other receivables grew by 12% [5] - Operating cash outflow was 400 million yuan, slightly up from 360 million yuan in the same period last year [5] Group 4: Strategic Development and Shareholder Returns - The company aims for quality development, leveraging its brand advantage to expand quality projects while actively updating its project portfolio, maintaining a 4-5% annual attrition rate over the past three years [6] - The company continues to implement an active shareholder return policy, maintaining a target of operating cash flow covering net profit by more than one time, with a payout ratio exceeding 70% in the past two years and a cumulative repurchase amount of approximately 60 million yuan in 1H25 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its profit forecast for Greentown Service (02869), expecting a 15% year-on-year growth in core operating profit for 2025-26, reaching 1.83 billion and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with a 17% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 920 million and 1.07 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%; core operating profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 25%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, up 23% [2] Business Segments - The basic property management segment, accounting for about 70% of revenue, grew by 10% year-on-year, solidifying the company's overall growth foundation. The newly developed annualized contract revenue reached 1.52 billion yuan, comparable to the same period last year, with a 5 percentage point increase in the proportion of core city projects to 95% [3] Profitability and Cost Management - Profit margins across various business segments improved, with property services, park services, and consulting services' gross margins increasing by 0.4, 3.2, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in overall gross margin. Selling and administrative expenses decreased by 9%, with the expense ratio down by 1.3 percentage points [4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company has ample cash on hand, with broad cash (cash and time deposits) amounting to 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14 billion yuan year-on-year. Trade and other receivables grew by 12%, while operating cash outflow was 400 million yuan, slightly up from 360 million yuan in the same period last year [5] Long-term Development Strategy - The company is expected to continue leveraging its quality brand advantage, expanding quality projects, and actively updating its project portfolio, maintaining quality growth and cash profits. The ongoing reform and efficiency improvement process is anticipated to continue, with a sustained upward trend in profit margins [6] Shareholder Return Policy - With sufficient cash reserves and good collection conditions, the company aims to maintain a target of operating cash flow covering net profit by more than one time. The company is expected to uphold its proactive shareholder return strategy, having maintained a payout ratio exceeding 70% over the past two years, along with ongoing share buybacks, totaling approximately 60 million yuan in 1H25 [7]

摩根士丹利发表技术研报，预计绿城服务股价未来15天将上升，发生机率料介乎70%至80%。对该股评 级"增持"，目标价5.18港元。 报告指，绿城服务上半年业绩稳固，在可比基础上核心溢利按年增长25%，是物业管理板块中增长率最 高的公司之一，主要由于利润率扩张较预期强劲。该行认为业绩证明公司在新管理团队的领导下执行力 强劲，增加了全年盈利增长的能见度，并可能导致市场预测上调。此外，公司亦正按计划扩展15亿元的 新合约。 ...

房地产/房地产服务 | 日期 | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 5.090 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 5.630/3.040 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 160.32 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 160.32 | | 总股本(亿股) | 31.50 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 31.50 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 10.86 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 绿城服务 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《各业务毛利率均提升，在管面积双 位数增长—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2025.3.24 《盈利能力同比提升，在管面积稳健 增 长 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.26 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kys ...