Summary of Greentown Service (2869.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Greentown Service (GTS) - **Ticker**: 2869.HK - **Industry**: Property Management Services (PMS) Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Core Operating Profit**: Increased by 25% year-on-year (yoy), exceeding management's guidance of 15% yoy and Goldman Sachs' estimate of 17% yoy [1][3] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Improved by 0.5 percentage points (pp) yoy, with all sub-segments showing yoy GPM increases [1] - **PMS Revenue**: Grew by 10% yoy, contributing 71% to total revenue, marking a return to record levels since 2016 [1][3] - **Accounts Receivable (AR)**: Expanded by 14% yoy, with management optimizing AR structure to maintain a healthy balance [1][9] - **Cash Reserves**: Increased by 26% yoy, totaling over Rmb1.1 billion net addition [1][8] Management Guidance and Future Outlook - **FY25 Guidance**: Maintained core operating profit growth target of 15% yoy, supported by double-digit PMS revenue growth and further margin improvements [3][4] - **Long-term Margin Outlook**: Management aims for continued GPM improvement and SG&A ratio optimization through 2026-2027 [3][4] - **Project Engagement**: Focused on high-profitability projects in core cities, with a target of Rmb4 billion in new contracts for FY25 [4] Operational Insights - **Project Sourcing**: 95% of new projects located in core cities, with significant contributions from large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [4][7] - **Community Living Services**: Efforts to enhance revenue generation through community services, early childhood education, and elderly care [4] - **Organizational Streamlining**: Continued efforts to reduce SG&A expenses, which decreased to 7.9% of total revenue [1][7] Risks and Challenges - **Community VAS Revenue**: Experienced a decline of 6% yoy, primarily due to a significant drop in home living services [9] - **AR Impairment Loss**: Increased by 34% yoy, indicating potential collection challenges [9] - **Market Competition**: Facing intensified competition in the property management sector, which may impact margins [4][15] Investment Thesis - **Rating**: Buy - **12-Month Target Price**: Revised to HK$6.3 from HK$5.0, based on a 12X 2027E free cash flow valuation [6][15] - **Valuation Comparison**: GTS trades at a lower P/E ratio compared to peers, with a projected 25% EPS CAGR and a 6% yield [6] Conclusion - Greentown Service is positioned for continued growth and profitability, supported by strong project engagement and effective cost management strategies. However, potential risks related to revenue declines in certain segments and market competition should be monitored closely.

公告显示，核心经营利润增长主要得益于收入质量管理强化、提质增效措施落地及成本管控加强，主营 业务盈利能力持续增强。 分业务板块来看，绿城服务物业服务为最大的收入和利润来源，收入达66.33亿元，占整体收入的 71.4%，同比增长10.2%；园区服务收入达13.56亿元，占整体收入的14.6%；咨询服务收入达12.991亿 元，占整体收入的14.0%。 与此同时，在业绩会上，绿城服务管理层表示，公司上半年现金和定期存款余额同比增长26.5%，达 54.5亿元，现金储备保持充裕，体现了"现金为王"战略导向的成效。 不过，绿城服务应收账款余额有所增加，截至今年6月30日，该余额达68亿元，同比增加13%。对此， 绿城服务管理层在业绩会上表示，应收款余额的账龄，一年以内占比达到69%，整体风险可控，B端(企 业客户)与G端(政府及公共机构客户)客户履约能力仍保持稳定。下半年将以回款为重点攻坚任务，通过 分类施策、强化责任制，确保2025年全年综合回款率不低于去年水平，并实现经营性现金流覆盖一倍以 上的净利润。 除此之外，深化改革亦是绿城服务业绩会上的高频词。绿城服务行政总裁金科丽在业绩会上向《证券日 报》等媒体表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 70% to 80% probability of Green Town Services (02869) stock price rising in the next 15 days, with an upgraded rating to "Overweight" and a target price of HKD 5.18 [1] Financial Performance - Green Town Services reported a solid performance in the first half of the year, with core profit increasing by 25% year-on-year on a comparable basis, making it one of the fastest-growing companies in the property management sector [1] - The strong profit margin expansion exceeded expectations, indicating robust operational execution under the new management team [1] Market Outlook - The performance results enhance visibility for annual profit growth and may lead to upward revisions in market forecasts [1] - The company is on track to expand with new contracts worth RMB 1.5 billion [1]

大摩发布研报称，预计绿城服务(02869)股价未来15天上升，发生几率料达70%至80%。对该股评级增 持，目标价5.18港元。报告指，绿城服务上半年业绩稳固，在可比基础上核心溢利同比增长25%，是物 业管理板块中增长率最高的公司之一，主要由于利润率扩张较预期强劲。该行认为业绩证明公司在新管 理团队的领导下执行力强劲，增加了全年盈利增长的能见度，并可能导致市场预测上调。此外，公司亦 正按计划扩展15亿元人民币的新合约。 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：王翼羽/程坚/张宇 1H25 业绩略超我们预期 账面现金充裕，现金流相对稳健。公司广义现金（账面现金及定期存款）约54.5 亿元，较去年同期增加 11.4 亿元；贸易及其他应收款同比增长12%；经营性现金流出4 亿元，较去年同期的3.6 亿元略有增加 2。 发展趋势 公司公布1H25 业绩：收入92.9 亿元，同比增6%；核心经营利润10.7 亿元，同比增25%；归母净利润6.1 亿元，同比增23%1，略超我们预期。 基础物管业务稳中有进。占收入比例约七成的基础物业服务板块同比增长10%，夯实公司整体增长基 础。新拓年化饱和合同收入15.2 亿，与去年同期体量相当；拓展质量持续优化：核心城市项目占比同比 上涨5 个百分点至95%；新拓平均物业费单价达3.7 元/平米/月（存量为3.2 元/平米/月）。 各项业务利润率全面提升，销管费用超预期节约。物业服务、园区服务、咨询服务板块毛利率分别同比 提升0.4、3.2、0.2 个百分点，推动综合毛利率提升0.5 个百分点。销管费用同比下降9%，费率下降1.3 个百分点。 持续践行积极股东回报政策。公司账面现金充裕，回款情况相对良好，全年保持经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved an operating income of 9.29 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. The growth rate of net profit outpaced that of revenue mainly due to improved gross margin and decreased sales and management expense ratios [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 9.29 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sales expense ratio was 1.5%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the management expense ratio was 6.4%, down 1.0 percentage points [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s property management service revenue reached 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 15.3%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The managed area reached 540 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [2]. - The company is focusing on prudent expansion and enhancing the quality of its project reserves by deepening its presence in high-quality existing projects and actively exiting non-core cities and projects with delivery risks [2]. Professional Services - The company’s park services and consulting services showed mixed revenue performance in the first half of 2025, with park service revenue at 1.36 billion yuan, down 6.0%, and consulting service revenue at 1.30 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6%. However, both services saw improvements in gross margins, with park services at 26.6% and consulting services at 33.1%, up 3.2 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [3]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast and buy rating, predicting EPS of 0.30, 0.35, and 0.39 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 15.4 times for 2025. The company’s high growth in performance and steady improvement in operational quality and efficiency support this outlook [3].

1H25业绩略超该行预期 中金发布研报称，维持绿城服务(02869)盈利预测不变，预计2025-26年核心经营利润均同比增长15%， 分别至18.3亿元和21.1亿元(2024年比较基数中包含MAG贡献，若将MAG出表计算，则2025年增速为 21.5%);归母净利润均同比增长17%，分别至9.2亿元和10.7亿元。维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到全年业绩 置信度提升及市场整体风险偏好变化，提升目标价8%至6.0港元，对应19倍2025年目标市盈率和18%上 行空间。公司目前交易在16.0倍2025年市盈率，以及按70%派息比例估计下的4.4%股息收益率。 中金主要观点如下： 公司公布1H25业绩：收入92.9亿元，同比增6%;核心经营利润10.7亿元，同比增25%;归母净利润6.1亿 元，同比增23%，略超该行预期。 基础物管业务稳中有进 占收入比例约七成的基础物业服务板块同比增长10%，夯实公司整体增长基础。新拓年化饱和合同收入 15.2亿，与去年同期体量相当;拓展质量持续优化：核心城市项目占比同比上涨5个百分点至95%;新拓平 均物业费单价达3.7元/平米/月(存量为3.2元/平米/月)。 各项业务利润率全面提 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持绿城服务(02869)盈利预测不变，预计2025-26年核心经营利 润均同比增长15%，分别至18.3亿元和21.1亿元(2024年比较基数中包含MAG贡献，若将MAG出表计 算，则2025年增速为21.5%);归母净利润均同比增长17%，分别至9.2亿元和10.7亿元。维持跑赢行业评 级，考虑到全年业绩置信度提升及市场整体风险偏好变化，提升目标价8%至6.0港元，对应19倍2025年 目标市盈率和18%上行空间。公司目前交易在16.0倍2025年市盈率，以及按70%派息比例估计下的4.4% 股息收益率。 物业服务、园区服务、咨询服务板块毛利率分别同比提升0.4、3.2、0.2个百分点，推动综合毛利率提升 0.5个百分点。销管费用同比下降9%，费率下降1.3个百分点。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩略超该行预期 公司公布1H25业绩：收入92.9亿元，同比增6%;核心经营利润10.7亿元，同比增25%;归母净利润6.1亿 元，同比增23%，略超该行预期。 基础物管业务稳中有进 占收入比例约七成的基础物业服务板块同比增长10%，夯实公司整体增长基础。新拓年化饱和合同收入 ...

摩根士丹利发表技术研报，预计绿城服务股价未来15天将上升，发生机率料介乎70%至80%。对该股评 级"增持"，目标价5.18港元。 报告指，绿城服务上半年业绩稳固，在可比基础上核心溢利按年增长25%，是物业管理板块中增长率最 高的公司之一，主要由于利润率扩张较预期强劲。该行认为业绩证明公司在新管理团队的领导下执行力 强劲，增加了全年盈利增长的能见度，并可能导致市场预测上调。此外，公司亦正按计划扩展15亿元的 新合约。 ...

房地产/房地产服务 | 日期 | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 5.090 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 5.630/3.040 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 160.32 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 160.32 | | 总股本(亿股) | 31.50 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 31.50 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 10.86 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 绿城服务 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《各业务毛利率均提升，在管面积双 位数增长—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2025.3.24 《盈利能力同比提升，在管面积稳健 增 长 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.26 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kys ...