Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a potential investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - As of early 2026, multiple regions have initiated old housing acquisitions, significantly accelerating the "old-for-new" program, supported by a reduction in the central bank's one-year relending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [1][3]. - Local governments are actively engaging in funding through various means, including fiscal support and bank loans, to facilitate the acquisition and renovation of old housing, thereby enhancing the supply of affordable rental housing [3]. - The report highlights that the government's direct acquisition of second-hand old houses is an effective measure to streamline the housing exchange process, reduce the exchange cycle, and simplify procedures, ultimately promoting the sales of new homes [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Old Housing Acquisition - The "old-for-new" service has been launched in various cities, with Shanghai and Hangzhou being notable examples where initial registrations have been completed and dynamic waiting lists established for families wishing to participate [1][2]. - Specific focus areas include older properties in urban centers, with clear ownership and reasonable pricing, aimed at facilitating housing exchanges for those in need [2]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, public funds held a mere 0.43% of their stock investment value in the real estate sector, indicating a significant underweight compared to standard industry allocation [4]. - The report suggests that high-energy cities are likely to benefit from urban renewal initiatives, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of the market [5]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Real estate companies with strong credit advantages and high product reputation in core cities, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [5]. 2. Public REITs with rich existing resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [5]. 3. Long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and Greentown Service [5].

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].

呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 綠城服務集團有限公司 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02869 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 38,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.00001 HKD | | | 380,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 38,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization with various supportive policies being implemented by the central and local governments, which is expected to enhance market confidence [17] - New home sales are relatively flat, but leading real estate companies are demonstrating resilience, with the top three companies showing slight year-on-year sales growth [14] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume, with a year-on-year growth of 37.5% in 16 sample cities [15] - The average price decline of second-hand homes is slowing down, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [16] - The report anticipates that 2026 will see more favorable policies aimed at supporting the real estate market, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan [18] Market Performance - In January 2026, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was approximately 178.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.4% year-on-year decline, consistent with the overall trend for the year [14] - The A-share real estate sector underperformed the market with a decline of 2.21%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed with a gain of 5.71% [19][32] - The issuance of real estate credit bonds decreased significantly, with a net financing amount of -95.854 billion yuan in the week ending January 30, 2026 [19][38] REITs Market - The REITs index increased by 0.51% this week, with the property REITs index rising by 0.33% and the operating rights REITs index increasing by 0.74% [40][44] - The total transaction volume for REITs was 1.452 billion yuan, with property REITs accounting for 744 million yuan of this total [53] - Over the past month, the REITs index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.65 percentage points [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

Group 1 - Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing (02314) rose nearly 6% after Nine Dragons Paper announced a profit forecast of approximately 2.15 billion to 2.25 billion yuan for the six months ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 216.0% to 230.7% [1] - New Oriental Education (09901) increased nearly 4% following the release of its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, showing a 14.7% year-on-year increase in net revenue and a 244.4% rise in operating profit [1] - Jolywood (06680) surged nearly 7% as rare earth prices continued to rise, with neodymium and praseodymium oxide prices increasing by over 120,000 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - Chinese property management stocks saw a significant rise, with Sunac Services (01516) up 5.67% and Greentown Services (02869) up 5.81%, as a report predicted an average revenue growth of 6% for property management companies by 2025 [2] - Valiant Pharmaceuticals (09887) gained nearly 4% after receiving FDA fast track designation for its dual-specific antibody LBL-034 for treating relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma [2] - The commercial aerospace sector showed signs of recovery, with Junda Co. (02865) rising 12.1% as the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation emphasized the importance of the next decade for developing a strong aerospace industry [2] Group 3 - Aigo Group (00328) experienced a dramatic drop, falling over 88% at one point, with a total market value dropping below 35 million HKD [3] - China Overseas Development (00688) rose over 4.2% as Citigroup's report indicated that the Chinese real estate sector would face significant impairment and margin decline challenges in fiscal year 2025 [3] - Yuegangwan Holdings (01396) increased by 8% after announcing a share placement to raise 108 million yuan, with about 70% allocated for AI computing power cloud service projects [3] Group 4 - Junda Co. (02865) saw a rise of 11.99% as the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation held a meeting emphasizing the need to overcome challenges in commercial rocket launches and reusable technology [4] Group 5 - In the US market, New Oriental (EDU.US) rose 5.32% after reporting a net revenue of 1.191 billion USD for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, a 14.7% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Semiconductor equipment and materials sector saw gains, with Texas Instruments (TXN.US) up 9.94% as it projected first-quarter revenue between 4.32 billion and 4.68 billion USD, slightly above analyst expectations [5] - Storage sector stocks surged, with Seagate Technology (STX.US) up 19.14% as it projected third-quarter revenue of 2.9 billion USD, significantly higher than analyst estimates [5]

Group 1 - Hong Kong property management stocks experienced a significant surge in early trading, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - Sunac Services (01516.HK) rose by 5.67%, reaching HKD 1.49 [1] - Jinmao Services (00816.HK) increased by 4.67%, trading at HKD 2.69 [1] - Greentown Services (02869.HK) saw a rise of 4.88%, with a price of HKD 4.51 [1] - Wanwu Cloud (02602.HK) gained 4.01%, priced at HKD 19.44 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant surge in the stock prices of property management companies, driven by positive market sentiment and forecasts for revenue growth [1] - According to CICC, the average revenue growth for major property management companies is expected to be 6% year-on-year by 2025, with overall profit margins remaining stable and core net profit projected to grow by 4% year-on-year [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the performance of covered mainland property management companies for the previous year will generally meet expectations, with profit growth in the low single digits, indicating increasing differentiation among companies [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the expected annual dividend payout ratio for various companies is between 30% and 75%, corresponding to an average dividend yield of 5.5% [1] - According to Morgan Stanley, while profit margins for property management and service companies remain under pressure in the short term, leading project management firms are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios [1] - The overall operating cash flow for the year is projected to maintain around one times the profit, reflecting a cautious but stable outlook for the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The property management stocks in China experienced a significant surge, with major companies showing notable increases in their stock prices, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sunac Services (01516) rose by 5.67%, trading at HKD 1.49 [1] - Jinmao Services (00816) increased by 4.67%, trading at HKD 2.69 [1] - Greentown Services (02869) saw a rise of 4.88%, trading at HKD 4.51 [1] - Wanwu Cloud (02602) grew by 4.01%, trading at HKD 19.44 [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - CICC forecasts an average revenue growth of 6% year-on-year for major property management companies by 2025, with overall profit margins remaining stable [1] - The average core net profit is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year [1] - The anticipated annual dividend payout ratio for these companies is between 30% to 75%, corresponding to an average dividend yield of 5.5% [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Morgan Stanley predicts that the performance of covered mainland property management companies for the previous year should meet expectations, with profit growth in the low single digits, but increasing differentiation among companies [1] - According to Morgan Stanley, short-term profit margins for property management and service companies remain under pressure, but leading project management firms are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios [1] - It is anticipated that the operating cash flow for the year will maintain around one times the profit [1]

瑞银发布研报称，以加权平均值计算，2025年中国物管公司盈利预计同比增10%，相对于市场预期升 12%，另较2024年及2025年上半年增长15%及12%有所放缓，相信主要是由于现金收款比率下降、增值 服务收入与利润率下滑。 在主要物业管理公司中，该行预期绿城服务(02869)表现将会领先，其次为华润万象生活(01209)、保利 物业(06049)、中海物业(02669)、万物云(02602)及碧桂园服务(06098)，当中首选华润万象生活和绿城服 务。 ...