智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，2025年全球经济韧性普遍超出年初预期，AI科技周期未完待 续，政策保持连贯性。展望2026年，全球经济宏观环境向有序回归，经济增长一定程度上具韧性，利率 或维持限制性水平。在增长韧性、通胀、利率均偏高的环境下，资产配置的核心逻辑向攻守平衡转换。 美债方面，利率中枢"易升难降"格局难改，关注重点仍是长端利率因通胀、财政、政策不确定性而承 压，收益率曲线或趋陡峭化。 交银国际主要观点如下： 港股盈利可期，"慢牛"延续。估值处于合理区间，性价比突出;流动性环境持续改善，南向资金和海外 资金回流;中国经济的结构性亮点(AI 科技、反内卷、内需修复)预计将开始在盈利层面兑现。 美股方面，"泡沫"短期难证伪，风格待转换。科技巨头受益于AI革命和资本支出扩张的科技龙头企 业，凭借强劲的盈利增长和技术壁垒，仍具备估值支撑，但需警惕投资放缓和信贷风险;此外，美股大 小盘分化有望收窄，小盘股和周期股或将迎来补涨机会。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company GCL-Poly Energy (03800) has a significant profit advantage in granular silicon, with low electricity consumption aligning with policy directions, and the industry's "anti-involution" is driving a substantial increase in polysilicon prices, with potential further price increases if capacity storage is realized, setting a target price of HKD 1.54 [1] Group 2 - The company is rated as a leader in the domestic renewable energy and public utility sector, with expectations for a historical high in total installed capacity for the year despite a moderate peak season in the first half of 2025 due to policy-driven installations [1] - For 2026, the company anticipates that domestic photovoltaic installations may continue to maintain a high level of 280 GW, while wind power installations are expected to grow by approximately 11% year-on-year to reach 110 GW, supported by a robust bidding volume [1] - The company's preferred order of sub-industries covered is: polysilicon > inverters/storage > operators > photovoltaic glass > battery cells [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International expresses optimism about GCL-Poly Energy (03800) due to its significant profitability in granular silicon, low energy consumption aligning with policy directions, and the industry's "anti-involution" leading to a surge in polysilicon prices, with a target price set at HKD 1.54 [1] Industry Summary - The report maintains a leading rating for the domestic new energy and public utility sector, predicting a historical high in total installed capacity for the year despite a moderate peak season for wind and solar installations in the first half of 2025 driven by policy incentives [1] - For 2026, the expectation is that domestic photovoltaic installations will continue to remain at a high level of 280 GW, while wind power installations are projected to grow by approximately 11% year-on-year to reach 110 GW, supported by robust bidding volumes in the past [1] - The preferred order of sub-industries covered by the report is: polysilicon > inverters/storage > operators > photovoltaic glass > battery cells [1]

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，2026年乘用车行业将步入高位整固期，预计全年乘用车零售 销量同比增0.3%至2445万辆，新能源渗透率突破60%。出口方面，预计2026年海外总销量达750-800万 辆。推荐关注具备海外产能与垂直整合优势标的，如比亚迪股份(01211)、吉利汽车(00175)，在Robotaxi 与具身智能具延展性的小鹏汽车-W(09868)。零配件则看好禾赛-W(02525)。 随着机器人售价下探，该行预计2026年C端人形机器人商业化更加顺畅。经过年底阶段性的波动后， 2026年板块有望进入整固及理性回归阶段。重点关注特斯拉(TSLA.US)Optimus量产订单与Gen3样机发 布等节点，以及国产整机厂供应链订单的落实。重卡方面，该行认为，受惠于政策红利释放及新能源渗 透加速，预计2026年内地重卡销量(含出口)同比增5%至约110万辆，看好中国重汽(03808)、潍柴动力 (02338)。锂电方面，该行表示储能需求强劲，产业链盈利改善预期增强，预计明年全球锂电池总需求 同比增约22%，建议关注有成本及技术优势，如宁德时代(03750)。 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience a critical turning point in 2025, with a stable and positive trend continuing into 2026, influenced by factors such as policy, fundamentals, overseas investment environment, and liquidity [1] - The sector is currently undervalued, and catalysts are anticipated to drive upward momentum, with the realization of value from innovative research further pushing the overall valuation upward [1] - Stock selection will likely return to fundamentals and valuations, focusing on stocks with expected fundamental discrepancies that are still undervalued [1] Group 2 - In the innovative drug/prescription drug segment, short-term focus should be on overseas transactions and performance, with long-term value driven by innovation and iteration [2] - Key short-term catalysts include progress in overseas clinical data, inclusion in medical insurance, and reaching breakeven points, with leading Hong Kong stocks expected to maintain double-digit revenue and net profit growth [2] - Recommended stocks include: 1) 3SBio, Deking Pharmaceutical, and BeiGene, which have rich catalysts and limited impact from procurement; 2) Xiansheng Pharmaceutical, Hutchison China MediTech, and Legend Biotech, which are significantly undervalued with clear long-term growth logic [2] Group 3 - The CXO sector is expected to maintain rapid performance growth, but long-term trends indicate tightening regulations in the U.S. and increasing difficulty in new drug development, suggesting that industry consolidation may just be beginning [3] - Leading players in high-growth segments are expected to have higher long-term certainty [3] Group 4 - High-quality private hospitals are recommended as the pressure on cost control eases and outdated capacity is eliminated, allowing private medical institutions to return to a faster growth trajectory [4] - Recommended stocks include: Guoshengtang and Haijia Medical, which are expected to have short-term performance rebounds and clear long-term expansion paths [4]

该行预计，主要云厂商资本开支于2026年或持续增长30%以上。同时发现主要云厂商云业务收入在今年 第二季之后加速，达到近年来高点。虽其开支相对于经营性现金流的占比处相对高位，但认为整体过度 投资的风险可控。另外，该行指，继续看好国产替代在关键产业链的投资机会，并认为"十五五"期间的 政策支持或使国产替代进程加速。同时看到内地云服务商资本开支2025年或年增49%，并认为或在 2026-2027年保持高位。 交银国际发布研报称，本轮生成式人工智能所带来的技术进步浪潮范围大，影响深远且牵涉产业链环节 较多。该行认为，AI基础建设至少在2026年或持续强劲增长。该行认为美股芯片设计和晶圆代工企 业，包括英伟达(NVDA.US)，博通(AVGO.US)和台积电(TSM.US)或持续受惠于人工智能基础设施建 设。同时看好国产人工智能及国产替代产业链机会，包括北方华创（002371）(002371.SZ)，豪威集团 （603501）(603501.SH)，中微公司(688012.SH)和华虹半导体(01347)。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from交银国际 indicates that the mainland consumer market is expected to continue a moderate growth trend towards 2026, with slow overall demand growth but structural differentiation driven by rational consumption and demand upgrading [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer market is undergoing a multi-dimensional transformation, evolving to be more consumer-centric [1] - There is a gradual construction of a new balance in the market, focusing on consumer demand and emphasizing operational efficiency improvements [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy in the consumer sector, combining defensive sectors with stable cash flow and resilient demand as a foundation, while also actively seeking high-growth structural opportunities [1] - Close attention should be paid to new consumption trends and the potential for industry reshaping brought about by technological changes [1] Group 3: Focus Areas - Three categories of companies are highlighted for investment focus: 1. Companies benefiting from supply-demand improvements and expected to release profit elasticity through efficiency gains, such as申洲国际 and伊利 [1] 2. Segment leaders that are quick to capture consumption trends and have rapid growth potential, such as泡泡玛特 and名创优品 [1] 3. Industry leaders with solid growth foundations, strong moats, and cyclical resilience, such as安踏 and华润啤酒 [1]

Core Insights - The mainland consumer market is expected to continue a moderate growth trend through 2026, with slow overall demand growth but structural differentiation driven by rational consumption and demand upgrading [1] - The market is undergoing multi-dimensional transformation, evolving to be more consumer-centric, emphasizing operational efficiency [1] - Investment strategies in the consumer sector should balance defensive and offensive approaches, focusing on stable cash flow and resilient demand while also targeting high-growth structural opportunities [1] Company Focus - Companies benefiting from supply-demand improvements and expected to enhance profitability through efficiency gains include Shenzhou International and Yili [1] - Fast-growing segment leaders that are adept at capturing consumer trends include Pop Mart and Miniso [1] - Industry leaders with solid growth foundations, strong competitive advantages, and cyclical resilience include Anta and China Resources Beer [1] Related Events - Anta Sports reported strong Q3 performance, indicating resilience from its multi-brand strategy and easing pressure on sportswear sales as weather cools [2] - Miniso's Q3 revenue grew by 28% year-on-year, with continued improvement in same-store performance [2] - Yili maintains a "buy" rating from multiple securities firms, highlighting its leading position and growth potential in functional nutrition and deep processing [2] - Shenzhou International emphasizes long-term commitment with improving demand and showcasing its leading advantages [2] - Pop Mart is strengthening its operations in the U.S. market, with expectations for a strong performance in the upcoming peak season [2] - China Resources Beer appointed Xu Lin as an executive director and signed a three-year business travel service agreement with China Resources Digital Technology [2]

该行认为，2026年新能源购置税减免政策调整有望刺激消费者今年年底前集中购车，叠加车企年末冲量 及春节前建库需求，有望对冲部分提高置换补贴门槛的影响。但在第四季集中放量后，明年首季或回到 季节性淡季，建议投资者把握结构行情且保持审慎，关注短期波动。 交银国际发布研报称，中国11月新能源车销量整体延续增长，其中零跑汽车(09863)与鸿蒙智行创月度 新高。虽11月部分省份置换更新及以旧换新补贴提高门槛，但受惠于2026年购置税调整，以及各车企年 底促销活动，新能源汽车行业整体维持高景气。 建议关注小鹏汽车-W(09868)增程车型陆续上市，及海外本地化生产落地带动销量和毛利率提升;吉利汽 车(00175)私有化极氪后推动内部资源整合;赛力斯（601127）(09927)问界系列进一步拓展高端市场并提 升盈利。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a slight recovery in consumption in 2025, with moderate growth expected to continue into 2026. The current consumer market is undergoing multi-dimensional changes, primarily shifting towards a consumer-centric approach. The key drivers of current consumption decisions are value for money and emotional value, which provide important directions for companies in product innovation and brand establishment [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company suggests adopting a balanced strategy focusing on three types of enterprises: - The first category includes companies benefiting from supply-demand improvements and expected to release profit elasticity through efficiency enhancements, such as Shenzhou International (02313), rated "Buy" [1]. - The second category consists of nimble companies that capture consumer trends and possess rapid growth potential, such as Pop Mart (09992) and Miniso (09896), both rated "Buy" [1]. - The third category includes industry leaders with a solid growth foundation, strong competitive advantages, and cyclical resilience, such as Anta Sports (02020) and China Resources Beer (00291), both rated "Buy" [1].