Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and semiconductor sectors [1][5][8] - **Outlook for 2026**: The AI supercycle is expected to continue, with significant growth in AI infrastructure and domestic substitution in China [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Infrastructure Growth**: AI infrastructure spending is projected to grow robustly, with major cloud providers expected to increase capital expenditures by over 30% in 2026, following a 60% increase in 2024/25 [5][10] - **Cloud Providers' Capital Expenditure**: Major cloud providers (META, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle) are expected to reach a combined capital expenditure of $467.9 billion in 2026, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase [10][14] - **Domestic Substitution in China**: The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to accelerate domestic substitution in key industries, with Chinese cloud service providers expected to increase capital expenditures by 49% in 2025 [5][9] - **Demand for AI-Related Hardware**: There is a persistent supply-demand imbalance for critical hardware components such as computing, storage, and communication chips, driven by high demand from AI applications [10][34] - **Consumer Electronics Demand**: A cautious outlook for global consumer electronics demand is noted, with predictions of a slight decline in smartphone and PC sales in 2026 [5][9] Investment Recommendations - **Recommended Stocks**: - NVIDIA (NVDA US) - Buy, target price $245.00 - Broadcom (AVGO US) - Buy, target price $425.00 - TSMC (TSM US) - Buy, target price $360.00 - Domestic Chinese companies such as North Huachuang (002371 CH), OmniVision (603501 CH), and SMIC (981 HK) are also recommended [2][5] - **Risks**: Potential risks include underperformance in AI monetization, high valuations of core stocks, and geopolitical uncertainties [5][9] Additional Important Insights - **AI Model Development**: The development of AI models continues to progress, with increasing competition and the emergence of new models, including domestic AI models [10][16] - **Chip Supply Dynamics**: The supply of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) chips is expected to ease in 2026 due to advancements in technology, although demand from AI applications remains high [51][52] - **Market Share Trends**: NVIDIA is projected to maintain a dominant market share in the accelerator chip market, although Broadcom's share is expected to increase significantly [47][46] - **Network Communication Growth**: The importance of network communication in enhancing the efficiency of accelerator chips is rising, with significant growth expected in the AI network communication market [48][54] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the technology industry's outlook, investment opportunities, and potential risks.

交银国际研究 行业剖析 行业评级 领先 2025 年 12 月 5 日 新能源与公用事业行业 2026 年展望：行业"反内卷"之下多晶硅初见曙光，大储需求超预期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 12/24 4/25 8/25 12/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 行业表现 恒生指数 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 文昊, CPA bob.wen@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3667 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Automotive Industry - **Date**: December 5, 2025 - **Rating**: Leading - **2026 Outlook**: New driving forces through cycles - smart driving commercial use, energy storage resonance, and mass production of robots [1] Key Points Automotive Market Trends - **Passenger Vehicles**: - After stimulus, the market is entering a high-level consolidation phase. - Expected retail sales for 2026 are projected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year to 24.45 million units, with a penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEV) exceeding 60% [5][19]. - Growth is driven by product iterations and cost advantages from domestic brands in hybrid and pure electric technologies [5][20]. - **Exports**: - Total overseas sales are expected to reach 7.5-8 million units in 2026, with a shift towards localized manufacturing to address trade uncertainties [5][10]. - In the first ten months of 2025, cumulative exports reached 6.51 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, with NEVs accounting for nearly 40% of exports [10][36]. Heavy-Duty Trucks - **Market Growth**: - Anticipated sales for heavy-duty trucks in 2026 are around 1.1 million units, a 5% increase year-on-year, with better performance expected in the second half of the year [5][10]. - The market is benefiting from policy incentives and accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles [5][10]. Smart Driving - **L3 Commercialization**: - 2026 is expected to be the year of large-scale commercialization for L3 autonomous driving, with several manufacturers accelerating development [9][11]. - The penetration rate for L2 and above smart driving systems reached 87% in the first eight months of 2025 [9]. Robotics - **Market Development**: - The robotics sector is transitioning from "technological breakthroughs" to "commercial realization," with significant advancements expected in 2026 [13][14]. - The sector is entering a consolidation phase, focusing on actual delivery capabilities and performance realization [14]. Lithium Battery Sector - **Demand Growth**: - Global lithium battery demand is projected to grow by approximately 22% in 2026, with energy storage demand expected to grow faster than power batteries [15][16]. - The industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, but caution is advised regarding the price of lithium carbonate and supply chain uncertainties [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - **Short-term (H1 2026)**: - Market adjustments may occur post-policy withdrawal, but structural opportunities will emerge, particularly in high-level smart driving [11]. - **Mid-term (H2 2026)**: - The entry of L3 into mass production will drive product iterations and new purchasing momentum [11]. - **Long-term (2027 and beyond)**: - Focus on the sustainability of embodied intelligence and the Robotaxi/AI ecosystem [11]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The automotive market is shifting from a growth-driven model to one focused on replacement demand, with significant implications for market structure and competition [19][20]. - **Technological Advancements**: - The integration of advanced technologies in vehicles is reshaping consumer preferences and driving demand for new energy vehicles [27][29]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the automotive industry's evolving landscape and investment opportunities.

Group 1 - The discussion around the AI bubble coincides with uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a pullback in AI-related chip design and foundry companies. However, the potential risks of overbuilding AI infrastructure globally are considered manageable, with a positive outlook for investments in AI infrastructure by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Recent trends show a divergence in technology stock performance across different markets, with A-shares performing notably well. From November 11 to December 10, the MSCI Information Technology Index rose by 0.5%, slightly outperforming the MSCI Global Index, which increased by 0.3%. The A-share Wind Information Technology Index surged by 2.8%, making it the only sector to achieve positive returns during this period, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.3% [2] Group 3 - The average spot price of DDR5 (16Gb) memory has surged from $7.676 at the end of September to $27.167 by the end of November. Additionally, contract average prices for DDR4 (8Gb) and NAND (128Gb MLC) increased by 11% and 15% month-over-month in October. The current memory price upcycle has exceeded expectations in both magnitude and duration, with a continued supply-demand imbalance expected until the end of 2026 [3] Group 4 - In October, China's semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports reached $3.86 billion, marking a 26% year-over-year increase and achieving significant growth for five consecutive months. The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is projected to reach $52 billion by 2025, with a 5% year-over-year growth forecast. The outlook for investment in mainland China's semiconductor equipment remains positive, with a further 4.2% growth expected in 2026 [4] Group 5 - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$343.6 billion for November, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase but a 6% decrease month-over-month. The company is expected to face continued demand for advanced processes and packaging capabilities, with 2nm process technology anticipated to launch in Q4 2025 and 1.6nm products expected in the second half of 2026. TSMC's pricing power relative to downstream customers is expected to improve compared to previous cycles [5]

该行继续推荐关注以下细分方向：1)创新药：三生制药(01530)、德琪医药-B(06996)、百济神州(06160) 等催化剂丰富、估值仍未反映核心大单品价值;先声药业(02096)、传奇生物被明显低估、长期成长逻辑 清晰;2)CXO：受益于下游高景气度和融资边际回暖的细分赛道龙头，如药明合联(02268);3)监管不确定 性逐步释放，有反转机会的医院、器械和诊断等子板块。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，本周医保+商保双目录落地，医保谈判新增品种成功率创近 年新高，续约品种降价幅度相对温和。该行认为，商保资金的引入将为创新药支付带来重要增量资金， 进一步优化多元支付体系。该行看好医保新纳入品种/适应症在2026年的销售放量，以及首版商保目录 的实际执行和支付情况。 ...

交银国际发表报告指，看好康宁杰瑞制药-B ADC产品矩阵的巨大全球市场潜力，上调2025至2027年收 入预测3%至8%，上调目标价至13港元，上调评级至"买入"。报告指，公司已成功搭建多个生物大分子 药物研发技术平台，持续产出差异化竞争优势显著的早期候选药物、并快速推进临床开发。 ...

交银国际发布研报称，看好康宁杰瑞制药(09966)ADC产品矩阵的巨大全球市场潜力，上调2025-27年收 入预测3-8%，上调目标价至13港元，评级升至"买入"。该行认为，凭借KN026及JSKN003，公司有望实 现在乳腺癌的全线、多亚型覆盖，并拓展其他HER2表达实体瘤的使用，借助差异化布局在HER2赛道拥 有一席之地。 ...

交银国际发布研报称，看好康宁杰瑞制药(09966)ADC产品矩阵的巨大全球市场潜力，上调2025-27年收 入预测3-8%，上调目标价至13港元，评级升至"买入"。该行认为，凭借KN026及JSKN003，公司有望实 现在乳腺癌的全线、多亚型覆盖，并拓展其他HER2表达实体瘤的使用，借助差异化布局在HER2赛道拥 有一席之地。 ...

Core Insights - The report from CMB International indicates a leading rating for the mainland pharmaceutical industry, following the National Healthcare Security Administration's announcement of the results from the 2025 Innovative Drug High-Quality Development Conference [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The recent negotiations for the medical insurance and commercial insurance innovative drug catalog have resulted in many innovative pharmaceutical companies covered by CMB International having products newly included or successfully renewed in the insurance coverage [1] - Companies such as Heng Rui Medicine (600276), Innovent Biologics (01801), CanSino Biologics (09926), and China National Pharmaceutical Group (01177) have more than five products that received new coverage or new indications [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The inclusion of more new drugs in the catalog is expected to enhance clinical medication levels and improve the overall R&D return rates in the innovative drug industry [1] - The introduction of commercial insurance funds is anticipated to provide significant incremental funding for innovative drug payments, paving the way for a diversified payment system alongside basic medical insurance [1] Group 3: Future Growth Potential - CMB International is optimistic about the sales growth potential of newly included products/indications in 2026, particularly for potential blockbuster products from companies like CanSino Biologics [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the actual execution and payment situations of the first batch of commercial insurance catalog, as well as the dynamic adjustments in the list and pricing, and the long-term development opportunities arising from real-world data accumulation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that global economic resilience in 2025 is expected to exceed initial forecasts, with the AI technology cycle continuing and policies remaining consistent [1] Economic Outlook - The groundwork laid in 2025 is anticipated to facilitate advancements in 2026, supported by ongoing monetary policy easing, proactive fiscal measures, and strategic industrial policies [1] - The external environment is expected to return to order, enhancing certainty and increasing risk appetite, leading to a shift in asset allocation logic towards a balanced approach [1] Hong Kong Stock Market - CMB International projects promising earnings for Hong Kong stocks, with a continuation of a slow bull market [1] - Valuations are deemed reasonable, offering significant cost-effectiveness; the liquidity environment is improving with inflows from southbound and overseas funds [1] - Structural highlights of the Chinese economy include advancements in AI technology, a reduction in excessive competition, and a recovery in domestic demand, which are expected to start reflecting in earnings [1]