Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87-2.10 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 98%-123%. The non-net profit is projected to be 1.72-1.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 109%-137% [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 610-840 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 211.1%-328.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44.6%-98.9% [2][4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising prices of refrigerants, with a projected increase in sales volume and prices in the upcoming quarters [10][11]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profits for 2024, with Q4 expected to show particularly strong growth [2][4]. - The refrigerant prices have increased by 32.7% year-on-year, contributing to the company's positive outlook [10][11]. Market Dynamics - The refrigerant industry is experiencing an upward trend, with strong demand in the air conditioning sector, which is expected to exceed 200 million units in total production and sales for 2024 [10][11]. - The company’s sales volume for refrigerants in Q4 is projected to reach 107,000 tons, a 25.3% increase from Q3 [10][11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the favorable market conditions in the refrigerant industry, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 1.97 billion, 4.94 billion, and 6.32 billion yuan respectively [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [27]. Core Views - The report highlights that the refrigerant industry is expected to benefit from improved supply and demand dynamics, with a positive long-term outlook for refrigerant prices due to increasing overseas demand and a concentrated supply structure [4]. - The long-term contract prices for refrigerants have seen an increase, with R32 contract prices rising to approximately 41,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a positive market response [4]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 25.3 billion yuan, 29.5 billion yuan, and 34.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, alongside substantial profit increases [4]. Summary by Sections Company Basic Data - Total shares outstanding: 2,699.75 million - Total market capitalization: 68,492.56 million - Circulating market capitalization: 68,492.56 million - Highest/Lowest price in December: 26.72/14.25 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 33.87% - Net asset value per share: 6.32 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio (TTM): 47.10 - Price-to-book ratio (PB): 4.01 - Return on equity: 7.37% [1]. Financial Projections - Expected revenue for 2024: 25.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5% - Expected revenue for 2025: 29.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.4% - Expected revenue for 2026: 34.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1% - Expected net profit for 2024: 1.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 110% - Expected net profit for 2025: 3.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 98.1% - Expected net profit for 2026: 6.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59% [4][5]. Industry Overview - The refrigerant market is characterized by a high concentration of supply, with CR3 and CR5 ratios exceeding 70% and 90% for major refrigerants by 2025, indicating a stable competitive environment [4]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing exit of gray capacity will further optimize the competitive order, maintaining a high level of market prosperity [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refrigerant segment has seen both volume and price increases, leading to a significant year-on-year growth in overall performance for the company [5] - The company expects a substantial rise in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.87 to 2.10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 98% to 123% [5] - The average selling price of refrigerants is projected to increase by 32.69% to 26,800 yuan per ton, with external sales volume expected to rise by 22.61% to 353,000 tons in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.87 to 2.10 billion yuan for 2024, with a significant increase in the fourth quarter projected at 611 to 842 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 211% to 327% [5] - The company’s main products, particularly the second and third generation refrigerants, are experiencing improved pricing and sales due to a favorable supply-demand balance [5][6] Market Outlook - The refrigerant prices are expected to continue their upward trend into 2025, supported by constrained supply and increasing downstream demand from air conditioning production [6] - The average market prices for the company's main refrigerant products have increased as of January 23, 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a showing price increases of 1.16%, 2.38%, and 3.53% respectively [6] Investment Recommendations - The report expresses strong confidence in the price increases of third-generation refrigerants and the cost advantages from the company's fluorine-chlorine linkage [7] - The profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 2.03 billion, 3.87 billion, and 5.48 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 114.8%, 90.9%, and 41.5% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 25.37 CNY [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87-2.10 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 98%-123% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to see a net profit of 0.612-0.842 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 211%-327% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45%-99% [1] - The refrigerant segment has shown strong performance with both volume and price increases, achieving a production of 149,900 tons in Q4 2024, up 19.09% year-on-year [2] - The company benefits from the rising spot prices of HFCs, with a projected market share of 45.82% for R32 in 2025, solidifying its leading position in the refrigerant market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a total revenue of 24.446 billion CNY for 2024, an 18.4% increase from 2023 [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.998 billion CNY in 2024, a significant recovery from a loss of 944 million CNY in 2023 [6] - The EBITDA is projected to grow from 1.968 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.373 billion CNY in 2024 [7] Segment Analysis - The refrigerant segment's revenue in Q4 2024 is expected to be 3.128 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 117.64% [2] - Other chemical products are facing competitive pressures, with prices for fluoropolymer materials and basic chemical products declining by 16.71% and 14.27% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong due to policies promoting the replacement of old units and robust export activity, with the total production and sales of household air conditioners in China exceeding 200 million units in 2024 [3] - The report anticipates continued growth in the company's profitability driven by the upward trend in HFCs spot prices [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted range of RMB 1.87 billion to RMB 2.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 98% to 123% [1] - The increase in profitability is attributed to the ongoing uptrend in refrigerant prices and demand, supported by the quota system [1][4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised to RMB 3.5 billion and RMB 4.5 billion, respectively, reflecting an increase of 25% and 18% from previous estimates [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, refrigerant sales are expected to increase by 23% year-on-year to 353,000 tons, driven by the consolidation of Feiyuan Chemical and rising product prices under the quota system [2] - The average price of refrigerants is projected to rise by 33% year-on-year to RMB 26,800 per ton, contributing to a revenue increase of 63% year-on-year to RMB 9.45 billion [2] Segment Analysis - The basic chemical products segment is expected to see a 12% increase in sales to 1.785 million tons, although revenue is projected to decline by 4% to RMB 2.8 billion due to weak market conditions for caustic soda and synthetic ammonia [3] - The fluoropolymer segment is anticipated to grow, with sales expected to increase by 8% year-on-year to 46,000 tons, despite price pressures leading to a 15% decline in average prices [2][3] Market Outlook - The refrigerant market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and automotive, along with tight supply conditions for second and third-generation refrigerants [4] - The company is also expected to benefit from the gradual release of new projects, enhancing its competitive edge through integrated operations and high-value products [4] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20.66 billion in 2023 to RMB 24.52 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.73% [7] - The net profit is expected to rebound significantly from RMB 943.51 million in 2023 to RMB 1.98 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 110.13% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.87 billion to 2.10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 98% to 123% [4][5] - The improvement in the supply-demand structure of fluorinated refrigerants and continuous price increases are driving the company's strong performance [5][11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the basic chemical industry, with a total market capitalization of 68.5 billion yuan and a total share capital of 2.7 billion shares [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 20.66 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 24.35 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.9% [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 944 million yuan, with expectations of 2.02 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year increase of 114.4% [7] Business Segments - The fluorinated chemical raw material production is expected to increase by 6.22% in 2024, while the sales price is projected to rise by 23.19%, leading to a total revenue growth of 17.54% in this segment [5] - The refrigerant production and sales are anticipated to grow by 21.12% and 22.61% respectively, with a significant revenue increase of 62.69% in 2024 [5] - The fluoropolymer segment is expected to see a slight decline in revenue due to a decrease in sales price, while the fine chemical segment is projected to experience substantial growth in production and sales [6] Market Dynamics - The supply of refrigerants is constrained due to quota regulations, while demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors remains strong, contributing to rising prices [11] - The report highlights that the price of mainstream refrigerants has increased significantly, with R22 rising by 69.23% and R32 by 149.28% by the end of 2024 [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the fluorinated products industry, with projected net profits of 2.02 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.91 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11] - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in the company's performance, supported by strong pricing in the fluorinated refrigerant market [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a continuous uptrend in refrigerant prices and volumes, with Q4 2024 performance meeting expectations. The refrigerant business is anticipated to benefit significantly from price increases, outweighing the negative impacts from non-refrigerant segments [6][5] - The company forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for 2024, with an expected growth rate of 98% to 123% year-on-year, driven primarily by the refrigerant business [6] - The company maintains a positive outlook for 2025, with expectations of continued high demand and price increases in the refrigerant market [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20,655 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. However, revenue is expected to rebound to 21,237 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.8% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 944 million for 2023, with a significant increase to 1,950 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 106.7% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.72 in 2024, and further to 1.54 in 2025 [5] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 18.9% in 2024, and reach 27.2% in 2025 [5] Segment Performance - The refrigerant segment is expected to see a significant increase in both volume and price, with Q4 2024 external sales volume rising by 60% year-on-year [6] - The petrochemical materials segment is also expected to show growth, although average prices have declined [6] - The fluorinated polymer segment is experiencing a decrease in profitability due to falling prices, despite an increase in sales volume [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][27] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87 billion to 2.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 98% to 123% [3][5] - The demand for household air conditioning is rapidly increasing, and supply is constrained by quotas, leading to a simultaneous increase in both volume and price for the company's refrigerant products in 2024 [3][5] - The company plans to establish a refrigerant sales center to enhance its marketing efforts and consolidate its market leadership in refrigerant products [4][16] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.87 to 2.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 98% to 123% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 1.721 to 1.951 billion yuan, with a growth of 109% to 137% [3][5] - For the fourth quarter of 2024, the expected net profit is between 612 million and 842 million yuan [3][5] Market Dynamics - The company benefits from being the largest domestic supplier of refrigerants, with a significant increase in sales volume and price due to rising demand in the air conditioning market [4][5] - The overall supply-demand structure for fluoropolymer products is expected to improve in 2025, despite current competitive pressures leading to price declines [12] Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of a refrigerant sales center is aimed at improving the efficiency of marketing operations and enhancing profit margins [4][16] - The company has a strong financial structure and is positioned to benefit from the long-term growth in the refrigerant market due to its high quota share [4][27] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 26.578 billion, 34.463 billion, and 40.735 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 1.999 billion, 3.058 billion, and 3.473 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 111.8%, 53.0%, and 13.6% [4][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][15] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to meet expectations, with a significant profit increase anticipated in Q4, projecting a year-on-year growth of 211%-327% [5] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the refrigerant market, with expectations of continued price increases and strong sales growth [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.7 to 21.0 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 98% to 123% [5] - Q4 net profit is expected to be between 6.12 and 8.42 billion yuan, with a median estimate of approximately 7.27 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 269% [5] - Revenue from refrigerants is projected to be 94.47 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 62.69% [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company's revenue for 2024 is estimated at 22.595 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [8] - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 51.28 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 161.1% compared to 2024 [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.73 yuan, increasing to 1.90 yuan in 2025 and 2.70 yuan in 2026 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The establishment of a refrigerant sales center aims to enhance the company's market leadership in refrigerant products [7] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing upward trend in the refrigerant market, with expectations of a "main rise" in stock performance [5][6]

股票简称：巨化股份 股票代码：600160 公告编号：临 2025－04 浙江巨化股份有限公司 2024 年 1-12 月主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 浙江巨化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据《上海证券交易所上市公司 自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露（第十三号化工）》有关规定，将公司 2024 年 1-12 月主要经营数据披露如下： | 主要产品 | 产量 | 同比 | 外销量 | 同比 | 营业收入 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨 | % | 吨 | % | 万元 | % | | 氟化工原料 | 1114366.51 | 6.22 | 347122.41 | -4.59 | 123428.49 | 17.54 | | 致冷剂 | 591405.05 | 21.12 | 352966.43 | 22.61 | 944696.85 | 62.69 | | 含氟聚合物材料 | 131846.86 | ...