资料显示，浙江巨化股份有限公司位于浙江省衢州市柯城区，成立日期1998年6月17日，上市日期1998 年6月26日，公司主营业务涉及基础化工原料、食品包装材料、氟化工原料及后续产品的研发、生产与 销售。主营业务收入构成为：制冷剂38.42%，石化材料16.51%，其他(补充)15.12%，基础化工产品及其 它12.37%，含氟聚合物材料7.53%，氟化工原料4.75%，食品包装材料3.80%，含氟精细化学品1.23%， 检维修及工程管理0.27%。 9月3日，巨化股份盘中下跌2.02%，截至10:34，报36.30元/股，成交8.46亿元，换手率0.85%，总市值 980.01亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1.02亿元，特大单买入1.25亿元，占比14.83%，卖出2.07亿元，占比 24.49%；大单买入2.09亿元，占比24.74%，卖出2.30亿元，占比27.16%。 巨化股份今年以来股价涨51.95%，近5个交易日涨1.28%，近20日涨31.71%，近60日涨32.87%。 巨化股份所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学制品-氟化工。所属概念板块包括：PVDF概念、浙江国资、 芯片概念、基金重仓、集成 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 氟化工行业：2025 年 8 月月度观察 优于大市 主流制冷剂价格持续上涨，液冷板块开启增长空间 8 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 8 月末（8 月 29 日），上证综指报 3857.93 点， 较 7 月末（7 月 31 日）上涨 7.97%；沪深 300 指数报 4496.76 点，较 7 月末 上涨 10.33%；申万化工指数报 4064.30，较 7 月末上涨 8.98%；氟化工指数 报 1681.54 点，较 7 月末上涨 16.75%。8 月氟化工行业指数跑赢申万化工指 数 7.77pct,跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.42pct，跑赢上证综指 8.78pct。 主流制冷剂产品未来价格稳定增长。R32 方面，随着年度配额的持续消化， 各家年度内可售货源有限，存明显的挺价惜售心态，供应端对价格利好支撑 较强，新单价格或仍有进一步上涨的可能。预计 9-11 月均价分别在 6.2 万 元/吨、6.3 万元/吨、6.4 万元/吨。R134a 方面，随着年度配额的持续消化， 卖方挺价心态或持续增强，四季度出口需求的逐步增量同时气雾罐等长协订 单陆续进入商谈阶段，基本面利好支 ...

2025 年上半年公司多数产品产销量提升，市场行情分化，氟制冷剂价格持续上涨，非制冷剂业务总体 竞争激烈。外销量方面，除制冷剂和食品包装材料同比有小幅下滑之外，其他产品同比均提升，具体来 看，2025年上半年，公司氟化工原料/制冷剂/含氟聚合物材料/含氟精细化学品/食品包装材料/ 石化材料/ 基础化工产品及其他板块外销量分别18.75/15.46/2.29/0.29/3.21/28.39/96.43 万吨， 分别同比 +11.72%/-4.19%/+7.45%/+4.43%/-16.82%/+11.48%/+7.55%。价格方面，氟制冷剂同比大幅上涨，其他产 2024 年作为三代制冷剂的配额元年，开启了新的景气周期，2025 年至今延续了上行趋势。据百川盈 孚，2025 年第二季度，三代制冷剂R32/R134a/R125 的均价分别为49811/47689/45270 元/吨，同比分别 为+49.63%/+52.41%/+8.35%，环比分别为+12.73%/+6.84%/+3.97%，延续上涨趋势。进入三季度，传统 消费淡季效应因市场结构不断优化、企业生产配额全年统筹优化使用等而弱化，制冷剂价格仍处于上涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability in Q2 2025, driven by a decrease in oil and coal prices, which has alleviated cost pressures. The industry is expected to enter a long-term upward trend due to improved supply-demand balance and supportive domestic policies [4][5][7]. - The report highlights strong demand recovery in specific sectors such as pesticides, fluorochemicals, potassium fertilizers, and coal chemicals, while some sectors like organic silicon and viscose have seen significant declines [5][6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth demand sectors, including the textile supply chain, agricultural chemicals, and export-related products, while also considering the benefits from "anti-involution" policies [5][6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In Q2 2025, the chemical sector's revenue reached 548.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%. Net profit was 35.5 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year but up 8% quarter-on-quarter [5][32]. - The overall gross margin for the chemical industry was 17.9%, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3 percentage points [5][32]. 2. Sector Performance - The report identifies significant performance improvements in sectors such as pesticides, fluorochemicals, potassium fertilizers, and coal chemicals, while sectors like organic silicon and viscose have faced declines [5][6]. - The report notes that the overall asset-liability ratio for the chemical industry is at 50.0%, indicating a historical low, and capital expenditure growth has significantly slowed down [5][32]. 3. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a long-term recovery in demand driven by stable global GDP growth and easing external trade tensions, with a focus on key materials for semiconductor and AI-related industries [5][6][7]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry will benefit from a combination of improved demand and supply-side reforms, including the exit of outdated production capacities [5][6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry has shown strong performance, with the fluorochemical index rising by 16.75% in August, outperforming major indices [1][15]. - Main refrigerant prices are expected to continue stable growth, driven by limited supply and strong demand, particularly for R32 and R134a [2][22]. - The development of liquid cooling technology is anticipated to significantly boost demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional cooling methods become inadequate [4][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of August 29, 2025, the fluorochemical index reached 1681.54 points, up 16.75% from the end of July, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 7.77 percentage points [1][15]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - R32 prices are projected to rise to 62,000 CNY/ton by November, while R134a is expected to reach 54,000 CNY/ton [2][22]. - Export prices for R32, R22, and R134a as of July 2025 were 46,576 CNY/ton, 26,480 CNY/ton, and 44,598 CNY/ton respectively [2][35]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The shift towards liquid cooling in data centers is driven by increasing power densities, with a projected market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [62][66]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [4][70]. 4. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses China's compliance with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs production and usage planned for 2025-2030 [71][74]. - The production quota for R22 is set to decrease by 28% compared to 2024, reflecting ongoing regulatory pressures [74][76]. 5. Key Company Forecasts - Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are recommended as investment targets due to their strong market positions and growth potential in the refrigerant sector [5][8].

Investment Summary - Company reported a revenue of 13.33 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.36% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.05 billion yuan, up 148.72% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter saw a revenue of 7.53 billion yuan, a 13.93% increase year-on-year and a 29.84% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Price Surge Impact - The average price of refrigerant products increased to 39,372.45 yuan per ton, a rise of 61.88% year-on-year [2] - The price increase in fluorinated refrigerants contributed 2.13 billion yuan to profit, accounting for 73.49% of the profit increase [2] - The company is positioned as a global leader in HFCs production capacity and quotas, indicating a potential for sustained profitability [2] High-Value Product Development - The company leads in the production of fluorinated polymers, which are crucial for high-end applications in aerospace and 5G communications [3] - Plans for expansion include a 10,000 tons/year high-quality melt fluororesin project and a 1,000 tons/year capacity for electronic fluorinated liquids [4] - The company is advancing in the development of fourth-generation refrigerants (HFOs) with a production capacity of approximately 8,000 tons/year [4] Future Growth Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26.99 billion yuan, 30.05 billion yuan, and 34.21 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10.3%, 11.3%, and 13.8% [5] - Net profit projections for the same years are 4.41 billion yuan, 5.09 billion yuan, and 5.83 billion yuan, with growth rates of 125.1%, 15.5%, and 14.5% [5]

Group 1: Metal Sector - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit forecast for 2025 is 168.65 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 15.32[12] - The company expects to increase copper production to 70,000 tons in 2025, a 56% year-on-year growth[14] - The strategic partnership with CATL aims to enhance lithium and nickel resource acquisition, contributing over 70% to gross profit[17] Group 2: Cement Sector - Huaxin Cement's domestic sales are projected to decline from 5,004,000 tons in 2023 to 4,078,000 tons in 2025, while overseas sales are expected to grow to 2,017,000 tons[30] - The company aims for a net profit of 19.58 billion CNY from overseas operations by 2026, reflecting a 25% increase from 2025[30] Group 3: Logistics Sector - Eastern Airlines Logistics' revenue from the US market accounts for 20%-30%, with a 5% decline in comprehensive freight rates due to tariff policies[32] - The company is adjusting its route structure to improve performance in the European market, anticipating a recovery in the second half of the year[32] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Wanhua Chemical's net profit is expected to recover as MDI prices stabilize, with a projected increase in demand from the furniture industry[50] - The company is positioned to benefit from a tightening supply of TDI, with prices expected to remain high through 2027[50] Group 5: Power Sector - Changjiang Electric Power's EPS forecast for 2025 is 1.38 CNY, with a PE ratio of 20.26, supported by a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70%[74] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 4-8 billion CNY, reflecting confidence in its future growth[74]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, particularly in the refrigerant and polyester filament sectors, with strong performance reported in the first half of 2025 [4][21][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.6% this week, with the chemical industry index reporting a slight increase of 1.11% [15]. - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decrease of 0.55%, indicating mixed price movements across the sector [15][20]. Key Company Reports - **Refrigerants**: - Juhua Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 13.331 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 10.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, up 146.97% [21]. - Sanmei Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 2.828 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 38.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of 999.5 million yuan, up 159.22% [21]. - **Polyester Filament**: - Xinfengming reported a revenue of 33.491 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 7.10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 709 million yuan, up 17.28% [23]. - Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 44.158 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 8.41% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.097 billion yuan, up 2.93% [23]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the polyester filament industry is expected to see improved profitability due to a favorable supply-demand balance, especially with the upcoming peak demand season [23][26]. - The report also notes that the long filament industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in inventory levels, which is expected to support price stability [23][32]. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the chemical sector such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical, among others [5]. - Beneficiary stocks include companies like Xinfengming and Tongkun Co., Ltd. in the polyester filament sector [26][29].

制冷剂价格持续恢复性上涨，1H25 公司归母净利润同比+146.97%。公司业绩大幅增长的主要原因，是 公司核心产品氟制冷剂价格持续恢复性上涨，以及公司主要产品产销量稳定增长，导致主营业务毛利上 升、利润增长。据公司公告，1H25 公司制冷剂平均售价和外销量分别为3.94 万元/吨和15.46万吨，同比 分别为+61.88%和-4.19%。非制冷剂化工产品总体"供强需弱"，竞争激烈，价格下行，盈利同比下降。 其中：含氟聚合物材料、食品包装材料、石化材料销售均价同比分别下跌2.80%、2.55%、8.66%，对公 司盈利带来不利影响。但因其产品价格已经多年的深度下跌，市场风险释放较为充分，且制冷剂业务盈 利大幅增长，在主营业务收入结构、盈利结构中的占比大幅提升，使非氟制冷剂业务盈利对公司总体业 绩影响较小。 制冷剂景气向上趋势不改，2025 年价格延续增长趋势。因第二代氟制冷剂（HCFCs）今年生产配额进 一步削减；第三代氟制冷剂（HFCs）自2024 年起实行生产配额制，经过一年的运行，厂库和渠道库存 消化较为充分，且下游需求旺盛，叠加行业生态、竞争秩序持续改善，HFCs 作为功能性制剂、"刚需 消费品"属性 ...

Group 1 - The PVDF concept sector rose by 1.74%, ranking 7th among concept sectors, with 9 stocks increasing, including Puxin Technology and Dongyang Sunshine hitting the daily limit [1][2] - Notable gainers in the PVDF sector included Juhua Co., which increased by 6.88%, Sanmei Co. by 3.83%, and Yonghe Co. by 3.69% [1][4] - The sector experienced a net inflow of 485 million yuan from main funds, with Puxin Technology leading the inflow at 205 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Puxin Technology at 11.52%, Huahua Technology at 9.25%, and Heimao Co. at 8.54% [3] - The trading volume for Puxin Technology was 20,509.85 million yuan, with a daily turnover rate of 3.84% [3] - The stocks with the largest declines included Zhongchuang Environmental Protection, which fell by 5.58%, and Jinming Precision Machinery, which decreased by 2.21% [1][4]