Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.91 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.26 billion yuan, up 68.4% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 71.9% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.83 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year and a decline of 11.9% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company for this quarter was 420 million yuan, up 64.8% year-on-year but down 19.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The report highlights that during the off-season in Q3, the sales volume of refrigerants decreased quarter-on-quarter, with some product prices declining. However, the revenue from the refrigerant business still increased by 60.0% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 17.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.26 billion yuan, up 68.4% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 71.9% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year and 11.9% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, up 64.8% year-on-year but down 19.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, the prices of refrigerants in domestic and foreign trade are expected to converge, with overall prices trending upward. The company anticipates receiving a quota of 16,000 tons for hydrofluorocarbons, while also planning for a major annual system overhaul [5]. - The report indicates that the demand for air conditioning is expected to significantly increase due to the replacement of old units, with production data showing a year-on-year increase of 23.9% in October, 24.0% in November, and 9.7% in December [5]. - For the next few years, the company is projected to benefit from the improving market conditions in the refrigerant industry, with expected earnings of 1.98 billion yuan, 3.40 billion yuan, and 4.73 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][25]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant increase in net profit year-on-year, with a 68.40% rise in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by the rising prices of refrigerant products [2][4]. - The company is a leading global player in the refrigerant market, benefiting from production quotas for third-generation refrigerants starting in 2024, which is expected to optimize the industry supply-demand structure [4][5]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 58.26 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, but the net profit for the same period increased by 64.76% [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 179.06 billion yuan, up 11.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.58 billion yuan, up 68.40% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 17.39%, an increase of 6.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.01%, up 3.51 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.25% [2][3]. Product Segmentation - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including first to fourth generation fluorinated refrigerants, and has a significant production quota for HFCs, holding 39.16% of the national market share [4][5]. - Revenue from refrigerants in Q3 2024 was 23.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.04%, with an average price of 28,148 yuan per ton, up 44.88% year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity for HFOs, with plans for a new production facility expected to add 9,000 tons per year [5][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 243.10 billion yuan, 272.27 billion yuan, and 289.66 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [25][28]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 17.47 billion yuan, 21.43 billion yuan, and 26.11 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [25][28]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to decrease from 32.43 in 2024 to 21.70 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as the company grows [25][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 28.87, unchanged from the previous forecast [4] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 showed year-on-year growth, driven by a significant increase in the prices of second and third-generation refrigerants [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's favorable cycle as a leading player in third-generation refrigerants, especially with the implementation of the 2024 quota system [4] - Despite a lower-than-expected Q3 2024 performance due to declining prices of fluoropolymers and basic chemical products, the company's refrigerant business remains strong, with prices up 29.81% year-on-year [10] - The company's strategic expansion into high-value-added fluorochemical products and its leadership in third-generation refrigerants position it well for long-term growth [10] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 5.826 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, and net profit of CNY 423 million, a year-on-year increase of 64.76% [10] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 17.906 billion, up 11.83% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 1.258 billion, up 68.40% year-on-year [10] - The company's refrigerant production and sales in Q3 2024 were 141,100 tons and 85,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 21.73% and 10.46% [10] Industry and Market Position - The company holds a significant share of the third-generation refrigerant quota, with 37.4% of the total quota for R32, R134A, R125A, and R143A in 2025 [10] - The company's leadership in the refrigerant market is further strengthened by its ability to maintain stable prices and volumes despite policy changes [10] - The company is expanding its presence in high-value-added fluorochemical products, including the production of fourth-generation refrigerants and cooling fluids for data centers [10] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's revenue to grow from CNY 22.902 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.991 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from CNY 2.033 billion in 2024 to CNY 4.238 billion in 2026 [11] - The company's EPS is projected to rise from CNY 0.75 in 2024 to CNY 1.57 in 2026 [11] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2024 to 18.6% in 2026, reflecting strong profitability and growth potential [11] Valuation and Comparables - The company's current P/E ratio is 27.87x for 2024, which is lower than the average P/E ratio of comparable companies at 27.15x [13] - The company's P/B ratio is 3.24x for 2024, indicating a reasonable valuation relative to its book value [11] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 17.23x in 2024 to 9.32x in 2026, suggesting improving valuation metrics [12]

上 市 公 司 基础化工 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 25 日 | | | 收盘价（元） | 20.99 | | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 26.10/13.96 | | 市净率 | | 3.3 | | 息率（分红 | / 股价） | 0.52 | | 流通 A | 股市值（百万元） | 56,668 | | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,299.70/10,619.85 | | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.32 | | 资产负债 ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|巨化股份（600160） 短期业绩承压，制冷剂景气上行 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月25日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 10 月 24 日，巨化股份发布《2024 年第三季度报告》：受益于制冷剂产品价格上升、 公司完成收购淄博飞源等促使制冷剂销售量增加；含氟精细化学品产销量、营业收入同比大 幅增长等影响，2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 179.06 亿元，同比+11.83%；归母净利 润 12.58 亿元，同比+68.40%。其中，2024Q3 单季度公司实现归母净利润 4.23 亿元，同比 +64.76%、环比-19.19%；扣非归母净利润 3.9 亿元，同比+67.81%、环比-22.81%。 |分析师及联系人 张玮航 许隽逸 申起昊 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524070002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月25日 巨化股份(600160) 短期业绩承压，制 ...

446 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------|-------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 10 月 25 日 \n巨化股份（ 600160.SH ） | | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 | 公司快报 | | | | | 基础化工 \| | 氟化工Ⅲ | | 制冷剂景气延续，业绩持续改善 | 投资评级 | | 增持 -B( | 维持) | | 投资要点 | 股价 | (2024-10-25) | | 20.99 元 | | | 交易数据 | | | | | 事件： 巨化股份发布 202 ...

巨化股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600160） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

巨化股份（600160.SH）2024 年三季报业绩点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 前三季度业绩保持增长，看好制冷剂价格维持高位 2024 年 10 月 25 日 ➢ 事件：公司披露前三季度报告，实现营业收入 179.06 亿元，同比+11.83%； 实现归母净利润 12.58 亿元，同比+68.40%；实现扣非净利润 11.84 亿元，同 比+71.89%。其中 Q3 单季度实现营收 58.26 亿元，同比-1.53%，环比-11.86%； 实现归母净利润 4.23 亿元，同比+64.76%，环比-19.19%；实现扣非净利润 3.90 亿元，同比+67.81%，环比-22.81%。 ➢ 环比角度制冷剂、含氟精细化学品以及石化材料销售量略有下滑。分板块来 看，Q3 单季度制冷剂产量 14.11 万吨，环比-16.70%，同比+21.73%；销量 8.50 万吨，环比-9.84%，同比+10.46%；营业收入 23.94 亿元，环比+2.56%，同比 +60.04%；平均价格 28152.38 元/吨，环比+13.76%，同比+44.88%。含氟精 细化学品产量 0.11 万吨，环比 ...

氟化工 巨化股份（600160.SH） 买入-B(维持) 制冷剂配额龙头，持续受益制冷剂长景气度 证券研究报告 2024 年 10 月 25 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 ·巨化股份 -上证指数 资料来源：最闻 前三季度利润增厚，Q3 业绩环比下滑。单季度来看，Q3 公司实现营收 58.26 亿元，同比减少 1.53%，环比减少 11.86%；实现归母净利润 4.23 亿元， 同比增加 64.67%，环比减少 19.19%；基本每股收益为 0.16 元。 市场数据：2024 年 10 月 24 日 公司发布 2024 年三季报，2024 年前三季度公司实现营收 179.06 亿元， 同比增加 11.83%；实现归母净利润 12.58 亿元，同比增加 68.40%；基本每 股收益为 0.47 元。 事件点评 含氟精细化学品产销量大幅增加，实现以量补价。前三季度，公司含氟 收盘价（元）： 20.28 精细化学品、石化材料、制冷剂、基础化工产品及其他销量分别为 0.42、38.97、 年内最高/最低（元）： 26.10/13.80 24.64、131.68 万吨，同比分别增加 286.18% ...

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