资金流向方面，主力资金净流出80.83万元，特大单买入7145.61万元，占比8.87%，卖出5997.46万元， 占比7.45%；大单买入1.84亿元，占比22.89%，卖出1.97亿元，占比24.42%。 巨化股份今年以来股价涨4.06%，近5个交易日涨2.02%，近20日涨4.60%，近60日涨10.81%。 1月26日，巨化股份盘中上涨2.15%，截至10:36，报39.98元/股，成交8.05亿元，换手率0.76%，总市值 1079.36亿元。 分红方面，巨化股份A股上市后累计派现64.59亿元。近三年，累计派现21.33亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，巨化股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股6450.90万股，相比上期减少2041.15万股。兴全合润混合A（163406）位居第三大流通股 东，持股4872.24万股，相比上期减少175.15万股。兴全合宜混合A（163417）位居第四大流通股东，持 股2522.52万股，相比上期增加27.31万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第七大流通股东，持股 2311.19万股，相比上期减少105. ...

Group 1: Company Insights - Huace Testing expects a net profit of 1.013-1.021 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%-11% [4] - The company anticipates a Q4 net profit of 201-209 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15%-20% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on strategic mergers and international expansion, which will gradually release growth momentum [5] Group 2: Military Industry Developments - Major military groups in China have held annual meetings to set goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan and outline key tasks for 2026 [7] - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation emphasizes breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and the development of commercial aerospace [8] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation is advancing the C919 aircraft's certification and commercial operations, with growing interest from Southeast Asian countries [9] Group 3: Cross-Border E-commerce Performance - The global cross-border e-commerce market is projected to reach 551.23 billion USD by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.44% from 2025 to 2034 [13] - Jihua Co. expects a net profit of 272-291 million yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 50%-60% year-on-year [13] - Huakai Yibai anticipates a net profit of 132-162 million yuan for 2025, with improved inventory management leading to a recovery in gross margin [13] Group 4: Coal Industry Trends - In Q4 2025, coal sector holdings in actively managed funds increased to 0.36%, indicating a low level of crowding and significant value [17] - The coal price is expected to be supported by tight supply and demand conditions, with a potential upward trend in the price center [19] - Major coal companies are initiating buybacks and asset injection plans, reflecting confidence in the sector's growth and stability [20] Group 5: Banking Sector Performance - Industrial Bank expects a revenue growth of 0.24% and a net profit growth of 0.34% for 2025, with asset quality remaining stable [22] - The bank's asset scale is projected to exceed 11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.57% [23] - The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 1.08%, with significant reductions in new non-performing loans in key sectors [23] Group 6: Renewable Energy and Technology - Mingyang Smart Energy plans to acquire Dehua Chip, a leader in satellite energy systems, to enhance its capabilities in space photovoltaic technology [25] - The space photovoltaic market is expected to grow significantly, with Mingyang's revenue projected to reach 40.879 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase [27] - The company aims to leverage its existing technologies to create synergies with Dehua Chip, enhancing its competitive position in the market [27] Group 7: Robotics Industry Developments - Tesla plans to start selling its humanoid robot Optimus by the end of next year, with ongoing testing to ensure reliability and safety [33] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with over 140 companies and more than 330 products launched in 2025 [40] - Microsoft has launched its first robot-specific AI model, Rho-alpha, which enhances the adaptability and reliability of robots [41]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a recommendation to focus on sectors such as organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming key growth drivers. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity is expected to expand rapidly, leading to a temporary oversupply and price decline. However, by 2025, no new capacity is anticipated, and demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is expected to maintain high growth [5][6] - The PTA/polyester filament industry is approaching a turning point, with capacity expansion cycles nearing their end. The demand side is expected to continue growing, supported by improved external demand due to easing trade tensions [6] - Refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies that will reduce supply while demand remains stable, driven by market expansion in Southeast Asia and the development of heat pumps and cold chain markets [7] - The synthetic biology sector is poised for significant growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy-efficient products and the potential for bio-based materials to see explosive demand [8] - OLED technology is rapidly penetrating various markets, with government policies supporting the development of new display industries and accelerating the localization of key materials and equipment [9] - The demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China, where the market is heavily reliant on imports [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 4th in overall performance for the week of January 19-23, 2026, with a gain of 7.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.45 percentage points [5][20] - The top-performing sub-sectors included textile chemical products (13.10%), nitrogen fertilizers (10.58%), and other chemical raw materials (10.09%) [21] Key Company Dynamics - The top three gaining companies for the week were Jianghua Micro (46.41%), Jiuding New Materials (28.47%), and Hongbaoli (26.73%) [26] - The companies in focus for potential investment include KaiSai Biological, Huaheng Biological, and other leading firms in synthetic biology and electronic chemicals [8][11][32] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to establish a benchmark by 2027 across various sectors [35] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas, maintaining high growth targets while addressing industry concerns [35]

2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025 年公司归母净利润同比大幅提升，看好制 冷剂景气持续 ——巨化股份（600160）2025 年业绩预增点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 巨化股份 | | 4.4% | 9.9% | 55.6% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown resilience with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.73% and the Shenwan Chemical Index increasing by 7.29% this week [13][16]. - Key sub-industries such as soda ash, chlor-alkali, and dyeing chemicals have experienced significant price increases, with soda ash rising by 13.3% [16]. - The report highlights the competitive strength of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests focusing on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire as potential growth opportunities [4]. - The polyurethane project by Huide Technology, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, has commenced, indicating strategic growth in the new materials sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the phosphate chemical sector due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34% [13]. - The overall performance of the chemical sector is positive, with notable gains in various sub-industries [16]. Key Sub-Industry Developments - **Polyurethane**: The price of pure MDI in East China is reported at 17,600 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week decline of 1.12% [28]. - **Tires**: The operating load for all-steel tires in Shandong is at 62.70%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.70% [49]. - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices are at 1,757.45 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [63]. - **Vitamins**: The price of Vitamin A is reported at 61.5 RMB/kg, down 1.6% week-on-week [79]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are positioned strongly, with a focus on growth stocks [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies [4]. - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies are expected to tighten the market [4]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Supply disruptions in Vitamin A and E are noted, creating potential investment opportunities [4].

隆众资讯制冷剂分析师孙亚奇在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："2025年二代氟制冷剂已进入淘汰 后半程，累计削减至基线值的67.5%，补贴政策助力终端消费品类换新机，售后市场大幅萎缩。相较之 下，三代氟制冷剂自2024年实行配额管控后，供应端收紧甚至短缺成为常态，终端消费品类升级，售后 需求被大量新机需求替代，三代氟制冷剂在供不应求的市场环境下价格再创新高。" 从供需关系看，2025年制冷剂行业供给端的配额管控，对氟制冷剂价格上涨的拉动作用显著。 "从需求端来看，制冷剂的消费场景主要包括家用商用空调、冷链物流及冷冻冷藏、汽车空调及热管理 系统、工业制冷及特殊场景等。尽管终端的排产波动会产生一定影响，但受产品更新换代周期长、社会 库存处于高位等因素影响，增量市场难以在短时间内冲击存量市场。此外，配额管理是制冷剂供给端控 量保价的主基调。"浙江大学管理学院特聘教授钱向劲对《证券日报》记者表示。 过去一年，国内空调以旧换新、新能源车热管理、医药冷链、数据中心工业制冷等需求的增长，对制冷 剂市场起到了核心拉动作用。那么，这些下游领域的需求增长持续性如何？ 孙亚奇认为，未来制冷剂市场最为核心的应用场景仍是空调以旧换新。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. has announced a significant impairment provision of 320.89 million yuan for fixed assets in 2025, reflecting the company's efforts to accurately represent its asset status and optimize its asset structure [1][5][6]. Group 1: Impairment Provision Details - The impairment provision includes 99.55 million yuan for the cyclohexanone unit, 206.71 million yuan for the caprolactam unit, and 14.63 million yuan for the diketoxime unit [5]. - The cyclohexanone unit, operational since July 1987, has a net book value of 111.73 million yuan as of December 31, 2025 [2]. - The caprolactam unit, which began operations in 2014 and was expanded in 2020, has a net book value of 232.10 million yuan as of December 31, 2025 [2]. - The diketoxime unit, operational since 2019, has a net book value of 15.63 million yuan as of December 31, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Impairment - The cyclohexanone unit faces significant operational challenges due to outdated technology and high production costs, especially under increasing environmental regulations [3]. - The caprolactam unit has been operating at a loss due to market competition and low downstream demand, making recovery to previous profit levels unlikely [3][4]. - The diketoxime unit has been out of production since September 2025 due to changes in market supply and demand [4]. Group 3: Financial Impact - The impairment provision is expected to reduce the company's net profit attributable to shareholders by 320.89 million yuan for the year 2025 [5]. - The provision aligns with industry policies and accounting standards, ensuring that the financial statements accurately reflect the company's asset values [6]. Group 4: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.54 billion yuan and 3.94 billion yuan for 2025, representing an increase of 1.58 billion yuan to 1.98 billion yuan compared to the previous year [8][10]. - The expected growth in net profit is attributed to the recovery in prices of core products, particularly fluorinated refrigerants, and stable production and sales volumes [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strategic adjustments made by Xingquan Fund in its mixed securities investment fund, focusing on increasing positions in semiconductor-related stocks and emphasizing the potential of domestic storage manufacturers ahead of their anticipated IPOs in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Xingquan He Run Mixed A achieved a profit of approximately 1.858 billion yuan, with a net loss of about 974 million yuan during the reporting period, resulting in a net asset value of approximately 21.688 billion yuan and a net asset value per share of 2.0802 yuan [2]. - Xingquan He Run Mixed C reported a profit of around 7.4413 million yuan, with a net loss of about 172.69 thousand yuan, leading to a net asset value of approximately 135 million yuan and a net asset value per share of 2.0717 yuan [2]. - The net asset value growth rate for Xingquan He Run Mixed A was -3.81%, while the benchmark return for the same period was -0.13% [2]. Group 2: Market Insights - The fourth quarter saw increased market volatility, with indices entering a fluctuating trend, yet opportunities remained abundant, particularly around AI-related sectors [2][3]. - The overseas computing power sector, exemplified by optical modules, continued to reach new highs due to increased orders from major clients and advancements in new technologies [2]. - Domestic supply chain leaders in optical modules and PCB are gaining greater influence on the international stage, while breakthroughs are being made in liquid cooling and power supply sectors [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The fund maintained a high position during the reporting period and plans to continue tracking changes in core competitiveness over a longer cycle, aiming to uncover investment opportunities arising from technological transformations and sectoral reversals [3]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is experiencing heightened activity, particularly with the anticipated IPOs of domestic storage manufacturers in 2026, making domestic semiconductor equipment and consumables a focal point for investment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in the performance of Juhua Co., Ltd. is driven by the rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants and stable production and sales volumes, leading to a substantial growth in gross profit and net profit [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Juhua Co., Ltd. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 80% to 101% [1][2]. - The company's core product, fluorinated refrigerants, accounts for over 60% of its main business revenue, serving as the cornerstone for performance growth [3][4]. - Historical financial data shows that Juhua achieved net profits of 2.381 billion yuan in 2022, 944 million yuan in 2023, and 1.96 billion yuan in 2024, with revenue figures of 21.49 billion yuan, 20.66 billion yuan, and 24.46 billion yuan respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Industry Dynamics - Juhua Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the fluorochemical industry with a comprehensive operational capability across the entire supply chain, maintaining a strong market share in fluorinated refrigerants [2][3]. - The company holds a significant production quota for HCFC-22 and HFCs, with 3.89 million tons and 29.78 million tons respectively, representing 26.10% and 39.33% of the national total [3]. Group 3: Research and Development - Juhua has invested a total of 4.388 billion yuan in R&D from 2021 to the first three quarters of 2025, focusing on new environmentally friendly refrigerants and high-end fluoropolymers [4]. - The company holds 744 authorized technology patents and has been involved in drafting over 20 national and industry standards, showcasing its commitment to innovation [4]. Group 4: Strategic Investments - In February 2025, Juhua announced a significant investment to increase the registered capital of Gansu Juhua New Materials Co., Ltd. to 6 billion yuan, focusing on a high-performance fluorinated and chlorinated materials project with a total investment of 19.625 billion yuan [5]. - The project is expected to generate an average annual sales revenue of 8.211 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.068 billion yuan, with a payback period of 11.46 years [5]. Group 5: Stock Market Performance - Juhua's stock price reached a high of 45.6 yuan per share in 2025, reflecting a more than 30% increase from the beginning of the year, with a market capitalization of 105.2 billion yuan as of January 22, 2026 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies, with Zijin Mining, BAIC Blue Valley, and Huqin Technology leading the rankings with target price increases of 65.69%, 40.29%, and 39.15% respectively, across the industrial metals, passenger vehicles, and consumer electronics sectors [1][2]. Group 2 - On January 22, a total of 24 listed companies received recommendations from securities firms, with Lihigh Food receiving 2 recommendations, while companies like Baolong Oriental and BAIC Blue Valley received 1 recommendation each [4]. - The companies that received first-time coverage on January 22 include BAIC Blue Valley with a "Buy" rating from Guotai Junan Securities, Yanzhou Coal with an "Outperform" rating from Guosen Securities, Hezhu Intelligent with a "Buy" rating from Huayuan Securities, and Jiachih Technology with a "Buy" rating from Kaiyuan Securities [5][6].