Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiyu Tourism (300859.SZ) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a focus on potential growth and strategic changes within the company [1]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 9 to 11 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 62.55% to 69.36% [1]. - The second growth point, tourism performances, is still in the cultivation phase, with projects like "Encounter Kashgar" and "Encounter Sailake" under development, impacting short-term performance [2]. - Xinjiang Cultural Tourism Investment plans to increase its stake in the company by 0.7% to 1.35%, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and support future asset integration [2]. - The appointment of a new chairman, Lü Meirong, is seen as a strategic shift that may enhance governance and drive profitability improvements [2]. Financial Projections - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 105 million, 134 million, and 163 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 53, 42, and 34 times based on the closing price on July 15, 2025 [3]. - The total revenue is projected to grow from 354 million yuan in 2025 to 467 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.6% [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 57.1% in 2025 to 60.2% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4].

Group 1 - The "takeaway war" has restarted, leading to a new peak in order volume, with Meituan reporting 150 million instant retail orders, and rider income increasing by 111% during weekends [1][9][11] - The competition among platforms like Meituan, JD, and Taobao has resulted in historical highs in order volumes, indicating a significant increase in consumer spending driven by subsidies [1][9][10] - The competition is seen as a catalyst for long-term benefits, provided that regulatory measures are in place to prevent malicious competition and ensure fair practices [1][13] Group 2 - The outbound tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with average prices for outbound travel products decreasing by approximately 5% compared to last year, and significant increases in bookings for overseas train tickets and hotel packages [2][15] - The inbound tourism sector is also seeing growth, with over 640,000 people entering through Beijing ports in the first ten days of July, marking a 22.1% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors [2][14] - Popular destinations for outbound travel include Europe, with a 76% increase in travelers to Europe, particularly to Northern Europe and the UK [2][17] Group 3 - The summer economy is thriving, with long-distance travel accounting for over 60% of tourism, and domestic flight bookings exceeding 25.61 million during the summer travel period [3][21] - The railway sector anticipates sending 953 million passengers during the summer, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year increase, with additional tourist trains being introduced to meet demand [3][21] - The self-driving tourism in Xinjiang is booming, supported by improved transportation infrastructure, with over 30,000 vehicles using the newly opened Ahe Highway [4][19] Group 4 - The report highlights the emergence of new consumption patterns, particularly in the food and beverage sector, with a notable increase in night-time dining and the popularity of takeaway services [38][39] - The travel and hospitality sectors are adapting to changing consumer preferences, with platforms like Tujia launching long-term rental services to cater to the growing demand for travel stays [48][49] - The hotel industry is expanding, with new openings such as the Marriott Hotel in Changsha, which aims to enhance local tourism experiences [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

Core Viewpoint - Xiyu Tourism Development Co., Ltd. is experiencing a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with an expected decrease of 62.55% to 69.36% year-on-year, primarily due to the early-stage market cultivation of new tourism projects [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 9 million to 11 million yuan for the reporting period [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to the early market cultivation phase of projects like "Encounter Kashgar" and "Encounter Sailake" [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on transforming its business model from a resource-dependent approach to a consumer-centered "value experience" model in response to changes in the tourism market [2] - Xiyu Tourism is leveraging its unique resource advantages at Tianshan Tianchi Scenic Area to develop new cultural tourism consumption ecosystems [2] Group 3: Project Development - The large-scale immersive performance project "Encounter Kashgar" has attracted over 70,000 visitors since its premiere in December 2024, significantly boosting surrounding tourism activities [3] - The "Encounter Sailake" immersive performance center aims to showcase the seasonal beauty of Sailake and began testing in May 2025 [3] Group 4: Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Xinjiang Cultural Tourism Investment Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by acquiring between 1.35% and 0.70% of total shares within six months [4] - As of July 4, 2025, Xinjiang Cultural Tourism Investment Group and its affiliates increased their shareholding from 28.79% to 29.00% [4] Group 5: Market Strategy - The company intends to enhance promotional efforts, adjust marketing strategies flexibly, and improve service quality to expand market share and ensure project profitability in the second half of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xiyu Tourism (300859) is expected to achieve a net profit of 9 million to 11 million yuan in the first half of 2025, leveraging the booming tourism in Xinjiang and developing new projects like "Encounter Kashgar" and "Encounter Sailake" [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 9 million to 11 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - The tourism industry in Xinjiang has shown significant growth, with 132.78 million visitors and a total expenditure of 142.56 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.15% and 11.59% respectively [1] Group 2: Business Development - Xiyu Tourism is focusing on enhancing its service offerings by providing comprehensive tourism services, including transportation, sightseeing boats, cable car tours, and RV camps [1] - The company is developing immersive performance brands under the "Encounter" series to create new growth avenues [1] - The "Encounter Kashgar" project has attracted over 13 million visitors in the first half of the year, showcasing the potential of new tourism formats like intangible cultural heritage workshops and aerial gardens [1] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Response - The decline in performance is attributed to the early-stage market cultivation of new tourism projects, which require further development of revenue and profitability [2] - The company plans to increase promotional efforts, adjust marketing strategies, and enhance service quality to capture a larger market share and ensure expected project returns [2] Group 4: Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Xinjiang Cultural Tourism Investment, plans to increase its stake in the company by acquiring between 1.085 million and 2.0925 million shares, representing 0.70% to 1.35% of the total share capital [2] - As of July 4, 2025, Xinjiang Cultural Tourism Investment has already increased its holdings by nearly 560,000 shares, raising its ownership from 28.79% to 29.00% [2]

[2025 Semi-Annual Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=2025%E5%B9%B4%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E5%91%8A) [Performance Forecast Summary](index=1&type=section&id=%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E5%91%8A%E6%91%98%E8%A6%81) The company anticipates a net profit of RMB 9 million to RMB 11 million for H1 2025, a significant year-on-year decrease of 62.55% to 69.36%, with similar trends for non-recurring net profit January 1 - June 30, 2025 (Forecast) | Item | Jan 1 - Jun 30, 2025 (Forecast) (RMB) | Prior Period (RMB) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders** | Profit: 9 million - 11 million | Profit: 29.37 million | Decrease: 62.55% - 69.36% | | **Net Profit Excluding Non-Recurring Items** | Profit: 8.5 million - 11 million | Profit: 29.09 million | Decrease: 63.19% - 70.78% | - The financial data in this performance forecast is unaudited by a certified public accountant[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Reasons for Performance Change and Business Overview](index=1&type=section&id=%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0%E4%B8%8E%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E6%A6%82%E5%86%B5) Performance decline is mainly due to new 'Encounter' series tourism projects in early market cultivation, requiring continuous investment while contributing limited revenue, as the company develops them as a second growth curve - The company's core business relies on Tianshan Tianchi Scenic Area resources, offering comprehensive tourism services including passenger transport, boat tours, and cable cars[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The company is actively developing the immersive 'Encounter' series performance brand as its 'second growth curve'[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The primary reason for the performance decline is that new tourism performance projects like 'Encounter Kashi' and 'Encounter Sayram Lake' are in their early market cultivation phase, requiring further improvement in revenue and profitability, alongside increased investment to enhance service quality[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Future Outlook and Risk Warning](index=2&type=section&id=%E6%9C%AA%E6%9D%A5%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B%E4%B8%8E%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E6%8F%90%E7%A4%BA) The company plans to boost new project promotion and marketing in H2 to enhance service quality and market share, while cautioning investors that this preliminary forecast is unaudited and subject to the final semi-annual report - The company plans to increase promotional efforts, adjust marketing strategies, and improve service quality in the second half of the year to expand market share and ensure projects achieve expected returns[6](index=6&type=chunk) - The company warns that this performance forecast is a preliminary estimate by the finance department, unaudited, and final data will be based on the 2025 semi-annual report, advising investors to exercise caution in their decisions[7](index=7&type=chunk)

Group 1 - The tourism and hotel sector experienced an initial rise, with Nanjing Shanglv (600250) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Jinling Hotel (601007), Tianfu Culture and Tourism (000558), Changbai Mountain (603099), and Xiyu Tourism (300859) also saw significant increases in their stock prices [1]

证券代码：300859 证券简称：西域旅游 公告编号：2025-027 本公司控股股东新疆文化旅游投资集团有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内容 真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 特别提示： 本次权益变动属于西域旅游开发股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"西域旅游"） 控股股东新疆文化旅游投资集团有限公司（以下简称"新疆文旅投"）增持公司股份，不 触及要约收购，不会导致公司控股股东、实际控制人发生变化。 截至6月13日公告披露日，新疆文旅投已累计通过集中竞价交易方式增持公司股份 236,800股，占公司总股本的0.15%。截至同日收盘，新疆文旅投累计直接持有公司股份 236,800股，占公司总股本的0.15%。 公司于2025年7月4日收到新疆文旅投出具的《关于增持公司股份触及1%整数倍的告 知函》，截至2025年7月4日，新疆文旅投通过深圳证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价方式增 持西域旅游股份323,199股,合计增持公司股份559,999股，新疆文旅投及其一致行动人新 疆天池控股有限公司（以下简称"天池控股"）合计持有公司股份 ...

证券代码：300859 证券简称：西域旅游 公告编号：2025-024 西域旅游开发股份有限公司 一、会议召开及出席情况 2025年第一次临时股东大会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、本次股东大会无增加、变更、否决议案的情况； 2、本次股东大会不涉及变更以往股东大会已通过决议的情况。 （一）会议召开情况 1、召开时间： （1）现场会议召开时间：2025年7月2日（星期三）上午11:00开始； （2）网络投票时间：通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的时间为 2025年7月2日（星期三）的交易时间，即9:15-9:25、9:30-11:30和13:00-15:00； 通过深圳证券交易所互联网系统投票的具体时间为2025年7月2日（星期三） 9:15-15:00的任意时间。 2、现场会议召开地点：新疆阜康市准噶尔路229号公司四楼会议室 3、会议召开方式：采取现场投票和网络投票相结合的方式 4、召集人：公司董事会 5、主持人：公司董事李新萍女士 6、本次会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》《上市公司股东会规则》等有关 法律法规及 ...

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