Shares of Arch Capital Group ( ACGL ) have been a modest performer over the past year, gaining 6%. While Arch has delivered solid underwriting results, share price appreciation has been limited by slower growth, underwriting margin fears, and higher Bermuda taxes. Feeling these concerns are overstated, IOver fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on my macro view and stock-specific turnaround stories to garner outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile. If you want me to cover a ...

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) reported $4.75 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 4.4%. EPS of $2.98 for the same period compares to $2.26 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.66 billion, representing a surprise of +1.97%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +19.47%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $2.49.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings ...

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.49 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.26 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +19.47%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this property and casualty insurer would post earnings of $2.19 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.77, delivering a surprise of +26.48%.Over the last ...

Financial Performance - Gross premiums written increased by 1.1% to $4,809 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to $4,756 million in the same period of 2024[13] - Net premiums earned rose by 2.7% to $4,255 million for Q4 2025, up from $4,143 million in Q4 2024[13] - Underwriting income increased by 32.3% to $827 million in Q4 2025, compared to $625 million in Q4 2024[13] - Net income available to Arch common shareholders surged by 32.8% to $1,228 million for Q4 2025, compared to $925 million in Q4 2024[13] - Comprehensive income available to Arch increased by 199.5% to $1,243 million in Q4 2025, compared to $415 million in Q4 2024[13] - Annualized net income return on average common equity improved to 21.2% for Q4 2025, up from 17.9% in Q4 2024[13] - Net income for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was $1,238 million, compared to $935 million for the same period in 2024, representing a 32.5% increase[25] Underwriting Metrics - The loss ratio improved to 53.6% in Q4 2025 from 57.5% in Q4 2024, reflecting a decrease of 3.9 percentage points[13] - The combined ratio improved to 80.6% in Q4 2025 from 85.0% in Q4 2024, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points[13] - The combined ratio for the insurance segment was 94.0%, reflecting effective underwriting management, while the reinsurance segment achieved a combined ratio of 77.0%[35] - The loss ratio for the insurance segment was 66.3%, while the combined ratio stood at 98.5% for the same period[38] - The loss ratio for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was 60.6%, compared to 59.0% in the previous quarter, indicating a slight deterioration in underwriting performance[47] - The combined ratio for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was 94.0%, an increase from 93.4% in the previous quarter, reflecting higher loss and expense ratios[47] Investment Performance - Total return on investments for the year ended December 31, 2025, was 8.52%, an increase of 344 basis points compared to 5.08% in 2024[13] - The company reported net investment income of $434 million for Q4 2025, an increase from $408 million in Q3 2025[18] - The total return on investments includes investment income and net realized gains and losses, reflecting the impact of market conditions and foreign currency fluctuations[111] - The investment income yield at amortized cost was 4.22% for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to 4.07% in the prior quarter[89] - The average effective duration of fixed maturities was 3.34 years as of December 31, 2025, compared to 3.24 years in the previous quarter[84] Balance Sheet Strength - Total assets increased to $79,241 million as of December 31, 2025, up from $79,185 million at the end of Q3 2025[21] - Total liabilities decreased to $55,035 million as of December 31, 2025, compared to $55,466 million at the end of Q3 2025[21] - Book value per common share increased to $65.11 as of December 31, 2025, up from $62.32 at the end of Q3 2025[21] - Retained earnings rose to $27,045 million as of December 31, 2025, compared to $25,817 million at the end of Q3 2025[23] - Total investable assets held by the Company increased to $47,369 million as of December 31, 2025, up from $46,746 million in the previous quarter[84] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased shares for treasury amounting to $799 million in Q4 2025, increasing total treasury shares to $6,410 million[23] - Aggregate cost of shares repurchased in Q4 2025 was $797.9 million, with 8.9 million shares repurchased[122] - The average price per share repurchased in Q4 2025 was $90.04, slightly higher than the previous quarter's $88.82[122] - The company has a remaining share repurchase authorization of $1,107 million as of December 31, 2025[122] Risk Metrics - The risk-to-capital ratio for Arch MI U.S. is 8.2:1 as of December 31, 2025, indicating a slight increase from 7.9:1 on September 30, 2025[66] - The PMIER sufficiency ratio for Arch MI U.S. is 179% as of December 31, 2025, up from 176% on September 30, 2025[66] - The ending percentage of loans in default increased to 2.17% in Q4 2025 from 2.04% in Q3 2025[70] - The total reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of recoverables, was $320.6 million at December 31, 2025, down from $332.6 million at December 31, 2024[74] Operational Efficiency - Net cash provided by operating activities decreased by 10.7% to $1,404 million in Q4 2025, down from $1,573 million in Q4 2024[13] - The company reported a loss ratio of 60.6% for the insurance segment, which is a critical metric for assessing underwriting performance[35] - The company experienced a favorable development in prior year loss reserves, positively impacting the loss ratio by (3.5)% in Q4 2025[52] - The net cash provided by operating activities for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was $1,404 million, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities[25]

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) is one of the best affordable long term stocks to buy according to hedge funds. On January 16, Citizens analyst Matthew Carletti reaffirmed his Market Outperform rating on Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) and kept a price target of $125 for the stock. Carletti cited Arch Capital’s “very strong balance sheet” as a key reason for the positive view. Arch Capital (ACGL) Navigates Market Cycles with Strength, Offering Investors Long-Term Value Photo by Jon Bauer's Co ...

Key Takeaways ACGL's net premiums earned are expected to rise 2.2% to $4.2B, aided by rate increases and growth. ACGL's investment income is expected at $398.5M as solid operating cash flow expands the invested asset base. ACGL may see higher expenses, but prudent underwriting could improve the combined ratio. Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is expected to register an improvement in both top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 9, after the closing bell.The Zacks Consensus Est ...

Core Viewpoint - Arch Insurance International has launched a new event cancellation cyber coverage to address the increasing risks of cyber incidents affecting events [1][3]. Group 1: Product Overview - The new coverage acts as a cyber extension to event cancellation policies, protecting against various disruptions such as cancellation, abandonment, curtailment, interruption, postponement, or relocation due to unauthorized cyber acts or system failures [2]. - Coverage also includes protection for third-party infrastructure, addressing failures or interruptions in communications and utilities [2]. Group 2: Support Services - The coverage provides access to security incident response consultants, including services for forensic investigation, legal counsel, and public relations support to help event organizers manage cyber incidents effectively [3]. - The product aims to simplify the placement of complex event coverage, making it accessible on the open market and through Arch IQ [4]. Group 3: Market Demand - The development of this coverage is a response to the growing demand for cyber insurance among event organizers, as the risk of malicious cyber activities continues to rise [3].

Company Performance - Arch Capital Group (ACGL) shares decreased by 2.65% to $90.77, underperforming the S&P 500 which fell by 0.19% [1] - Over the past month, ACGL's stock has declined by 2.59%, while the Finance sector gained 1.58% and the S&P 500 increased by 2.26% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The company's earnings report is scheduled for February 9, 2026, with projected EPS of $2.42, indicating a 7.08% increase year-over-year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $4.7 billion, reflecting a 3.36% rise from the same quarter last year [2] Full-Year Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $9.2 per share and revenue of $18.74 billion for the full year, representing year-over-year changes of -0.86% and 0% respectively [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Arch Capital Group reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in performance [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Arch Capital Group as 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Arch Capital Group has a Forward P/E ratio of 9.86, which is lower than the industry's Forward P/E of 10.45 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.1, matching the average PEG ratio of the Insurance - Property and Casualty industry [7] Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is part of the Finance sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 166, placing it in the bottom 33% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Overview - Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) has a market capitalization of $33.8 billion and operates as a global provider of insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products across various regions including the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia [1] Upcoming Earnings Announcement - The company is scheduled to announce its fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 9, with analysts predicting an adjusted EPS of $2.42, reflecting a 7.1% increase from $2.26 in the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For fiscal 2025, analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $9.20, a slight decrease from $9.28 in fiscal 2024, but anticipate a rise of 2.8% year-over-year to $9.46 in fiscal 2026 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Arch Capital's shares have increased by 3.4%, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500 Index's 19.7% rise and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's 16.8% return [4] Recent Earnings Results - In Q3 2025, Arch Capital reported an adjusted EPS of $2.77, exceeding expectations; however, shares fell by 1.4% the following day. The adjusted revenue was $4.72 billion, which missed market forecasts, and net premiums written decreased by 2.1% year-over-year to $3.96 billion, with reinsurance net premiums dropping by 10.7% [5] Analyst Ratings - The consensus view on ACGL stock is cautiously optimistic, with a "Moderate Buy" rating. Among 23 analysts, 10 recommend "Strong Buy," one has a "Moderate Buy," 10 suggest "Holds," and two propose "Strong Sell." The average price target for Arch Capital is $107.10, indicating a potential upside of 14.9% from current levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - Arch Capital Group (ACGL) is positioned well to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates in the upcoming quarterly report, supported by a strong history of performance in the property and casualty insurance industry [1]. Earnings Performance - Arch Capital has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 19.09% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the last reported quarter, Arch Capital achieved earnings of $2.77 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.19 per share by 26.48%. In the previous quarter, the company reported earnings of $2.58 per share against an expectation of $2.31 per share, resulting in an 11.69% surprise [3]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Arch Capital have been increasing, indicating a positive outlook for future earnings. The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is currently positive, suggesting a strong likelihood of another earnings beat [6]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have historically produced a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, indicating a high probability of beating consensus estimates [7]. Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - Arch Capital has an Earnings ESP of +3.04%, reflecting a bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its near-term earnings potential. This positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggests that another earnings beat may be imminent [9].