Group 1 - The article maintains a bullish rating on Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE: ACHR) due to the achievement of FAA certifications, which are seen as significant barriers to commercialization [1] - The optimism surrounding the company is driven by its strategic approach and playbook, which focuses on technology, innovation, and sustainability [1] - The author emphasizes a unique investment analysis method called "First Principles," which breaks down complex problems into basic elements to identify overlooked investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The author has a strong background in investment, private equity, and venture capital, with a proven track record of delivering strong returns [1] - The focus of the articles is on emerging technologies, sustainable investing, and the intersection of innovation and finance, aiming to share insights and learn from fellow investors [1]

The Palantir and Archer Aviation are aiming to work together to disrupt the legacy players in aviation. Palantir operates one of the leading AI analytics firms for the U.S. government and big business. Archer Aviation is designing and testing one of the first electric air taxis, which promise to disrupt the transportation market once approved by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Together, the two companies are going to utilize Palantir's Foundry and Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) to work on ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 39 期） 海外市场观察：美股 eVTOL 标的 Archer 周 推荐（维持） 涨幅 50% 行业研究 交通运输 2025 年 05 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 联系人：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | | 32, ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [51]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant rise of the eVTOL company Archer, which saw a weekly increase of 50%, reaching a market capitalization of $7.3 billion (approximately 52.6 billion RMB) [4][5]. - Archer's operational highlights include successful overseas expansion, partnerships with major airlines, and being selected as the official air taxi provider for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, indicating a rapid acceleration in commercialization [7][10]. - Financially, Archer reported a narrowed loss of $93 million in Q1, with a substantial cash reserve of $1 billion (approximately 7.2 billion RMB), showcasing strong liquidity [20][24]. Industry Overview - The report provides an overview of the transportation industry, noting a total of 122 listed companies with a total market value of 324.96 billion RMB and a circulating market value of 278.26 billion RMB [1]. - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index experienced a weekly decline of 1.1% but has increased by 1.7% year-to-date, contrasting with the performance of the CSI 300 Index, which has decreased by 1.2% [29][31]. Company-Specific Developments - Archer's strategic partnerships include collaboration with United Airlines to launch air taxi services in New York, aiming to reduce travel time significantly [7][8]. - The company has also secured a $500 million order from Soracle Corporation in Japan for up to 100 Midnight aircraft, indicating strong international demand [16][17]. - Archer's eVTOL aircraft, Midnight, is designed to travel at speeds of 150 mph and can carry up to four passengers, highlighting its potential for urban air mobility [11]. Financial Performance - Archer's Q1 EPS loss has significantly narrowed to $0.17 from $0.36 in the previous quarter, reflecting improved operational efficiency [20]. - The company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss of $100-120 million for Q2, indicating ongoing investment in growth despite current losses [21]. Market Insights - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, suggesting that both Chinese and American companies are well-positioned in the eVTOL market, with the potential for significant market share in the future [28]. - The FAA's new regulations for vertical takeoff and landing aircraft are expected to pave the way for commercial operations, enhancing the market outlook for eVTOL companies [26][27].

Group 1 - Archer Aviation's shares increased by 10.4% following a positive note from Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard [1][3] - Cantor Fitzgerald maintains an overweight rating and a $13 price target for Archer, anticipating the launch of its air taxi service in Q4 2025, with the UAE as the initial market [3][4] - Archer has significant cash reserves of $1 billion, which is the highest in the industry, and has formed partnerships with notable entities such as Anduril, the U.S. Department of Defense, United Airlines, and Stellantis [4] Group 2 - Archer reported $514 million in losses over the last four quarters and a cash burn of $450 million, but has enough cash to sustain operations for two more years [5] - Analysts predict that Archer will not achieve GAAP profits before 2030 and will not generate positive free cash flow before 2028, raising concerns about its financial viability [6]

Core Investment Philosophy - Investing in the stock market requires extraordinary patience, as demonstrated by Warren Buffett's transformation of Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile company into a diversified holding company, resulting in a $1,000 investment in 1965 being worth over $42 million today, showcasing the power of compounding returns over time [1] Growth Companies - The lesson emphasizes that when a genuine winner is found, it is crucial to resist the urge to sell, as small growth companies can evolve into mid-cap powerhouses and eventually stable, dividend-paying large caps, creating significant wealth for patient shareholders [2] Company Highlights - **Intuitive Machines**: Dominates the lunar economy with successful Moon landings and exclusive contracts, positioned to benefit from the developing multitrillion-dollar space economy as lunar missions accelerate [5] - **Palantir Technologies**: Leverages AI to solve complex data problems for governments and Fortune 500 companies, with its Artificial Intelligence Platform driving explosive commercial growth and creating high-margin revenue streams [6] - **Rocket Lab USA**: Provides end-to-end space solutions, capturing multiple revenue streams across the space value chain, with a reliable rocket and expanding reusability program for the small satellite market [7] - **Serve Robotics**: Leads in autonomous delivery with sidewalk robots generating revenue in major cities, partnered with Uber to enhance distribution and address last-mile delivery challenges [8] - **Archer Aviation**: Pioneers electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for urban air mobility, with a $6 billion order backlog and partnerships with major operators, aiming to transform urban transportation [9] - **Joby Aviation**: Complements Archer in the eVTOL space with advanced aircraft technology and a partnership with Toyota, achieving significant regulatory milestones and operational testing [10] - **Rigetti Computing**: Develops quantum computing systems with cloud-based access, positioned at the forefront of the quantum computing race, offering exposure to a technology that could revolutionize various fields [11]

Core Viewpoint - Archer Aviation is positioned as a key player in the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market, targeting both commercial air taxi routes and defense applications, with the potential to grow into a multibillion-dollar business within three to five years [1] Financial Performance - Archer Aviation has a prospective order backlog of $6 billion, nearly matching its current market capitalization of $6.1 billion, indicating strong demand for its aircraft [2] - The company reported over $1 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025, providing a solid financial foundation for its growth plans [7] - Operating expenses for Q1 were $113.1 million (non-GAAP), reflecting disciplined spending as the company approaches commercialization [7] - At the current burn rate, Archer Aviation has approximately 2.5 years of runway before needing additional capital, allowing time to achieve cash-flow-positive operations [8] Commercialization Strategy - Archer Aviation is focusing on the UAE as its first market, with plans to deliver its inaugural commercial Midnight aircraft this summer [10] - The company has secured design approval for its first hybrid heliport in Abu Dhabi, a significant regulatory milestone [10] - The "Launch Edition" program targets premium operators, with Abu Dhabi Aviation and Ethiopian Airlines as initial customers, validating the strategy of focusing on sophisticated operators [11] Valuation Insights - Archer Aviation's shares are currently trading at a valuation equivalent to its entire $6 billion order book, presenting a compelling entry point for investors [12] - Applying a conservative 1.37x multiple to the order book suggests a valuation of approximately $15 per share, while a more realistic 2x multiple indicates a fair value around $24 per share [13][15] - The partnership with Palantir Technologies positions Archer Aviation as a high-growth tech company, which may not be fully recognized by the market, leading to a valuation disconnect [14][15]

Core Insights - Archer Aviation reported a positive Q1 2025 financial performance, exceeding analyst expectations for EPS and showing an improved net loss [1][3] - The company confirmed its cash position has surpassed $1 billion, a significant milestone for its financial health [1][4] - Archer is on track to begin revenue generation in 2025 through its Launch Edition program in the UAE, with confirmed customers [2][6] Financial Performance - Archer's EPS for Q1 2025 was -$0.17, beating the consensus estimate of -$0.28 [3] - The net loss for Q1 2025 was $93.4 million, an improvement from $116.5 million in the same quarter of the previous year [3] - Total operating expenses were $144.0 million, up from $124.2 million in Q4 2024, reflecting strategic investments [5] Operational Updates - The company is set to deliver its first piloted Midnight aircraft to the UAE this summer, marking a significant operational milestone [7] - Manufacturing of the first conforming Midnight aircraft began in Q1 2025, with a target to produce up to ten aircraft throughout the year [8] - Archer is actively working with the FAA to secure Type Certification for its Midnight aircraft [8] Strategic Partnerships - Archer's collaboration with Palantir Technologies focuses on building an AI foundation for next-generation aviation technologies [9] - Plans for a New York City air taxi network with United Airlines are a key part of Archer's U.S. strategy [9] Market Response - Following the positive Q1 earnings report, Archer's stock saw a significant increase, reflecting investor confidence [10] - The stock price rose approximately 29% in the month leading up to the earnings announcement and has increased over 148% in the past year [10][12] Conclusion - Archer Aviation's Q1 2025 results indicate effective financial management and progress towards commercialization, with a strong cash position and operational milestones being met [11][12] - The company is transitioning from a developmental stage to one poised for operational income generation, particularly in the urban air mobility sector [12]

Group 1: Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR) - Archer Aviation's shares increased by 22.7% to $11.14 following positive first-quarter earnings results [1] - The stock has been on an upward trend since early April, rebounding from a 320-day moving average at $5.50 [1] - ACHR is experiencing its best trading day since November and has gained 14.2% year-to-date, marking its highest levels since mid-February [1] Group 2: Options Activity - ACHR is among the most actively traded stocks in the options market, with 170,000 calls and 62,000 puts exchanged, five times the average options volume [2] - The May 11 call option is the most popular, with new positions being opened [2] Group 3: Joby Aviation Inc (JOBY) - Joby Aviation's shares rose by 2% to $7.15, marking its fifth consecutive winning session [3] - The company's first-quarter earnings were deemed "unimpressive," with losses of 18 cents per share matching estimates and revenue missing expectations [3] - Despite the disappointing earnings, JOBY's stock rose 3.4% in the post-earnings session [4] Group 4: Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT) - Red Cat Holdings' shares increased by 4.2% to $6.41, also aiming for a fifth consecutive gain [4] - The stock is facing potential resistance at the 80-day moving average, which is above its current price [4] - Year-to-date, RCAT's stock has decreased by 50% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Archer Aviation Inc. reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, leading to a surge in its shares, with a loss of 17 cents per share compared to analyst estimates of a 28 cents loss per share [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Needham analyst Chris Pierce reiterated a Buy rating with a price forecast of $13 post Q1 results [1] - HC Wainwright & Co. analyst Amit Dayal also maintained a Buy rating with a price forecast of $12.50, noting that the company did not generate any quarterly revenues [4] - JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson maintained a Neutral rating with a price forecast of $9, reflecting caution due to uncertainties surrounding FAA certification timelines [7] Group 2: Company Progress and Developments - The company is making steady progress, with a piloted flight expected soon and preparations for its first commercial launch in the UAE underway [2] - Management reported that ground, transition, and technical tests are complete, with piloted flights expected to begin shortly [4] - Archer's aircraft offers advantages over existing options in a supply-constrained market, contributing to a positive long-term outlook [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - Analyst Chris Pierce revised 2025 EBITDA estimates to $460 million from $418 million [3] - Dayal projects revenue of around $18 million in 2025, over $42 million in 2026, and around $1 billion by 2028 [6] - Dayal anticipates that advancements in Archer's aviation software initiatives with Palantir Technologies will unlock new revenue streams not yet included in forecasts [5] Group 4: Market and Regulatory Environment - Regulatory support for the eVTOL market remains strong, with projections of Archer's annual eVTOL manufacturing exceeding 300 units per year by 2030 and a cumulative production of over 3,000 eVTOLs between 2034 and 2036 [6] - Given FAA certification delays and strong government support for defense, Archer is expected to focus more on the defense sector [8]