Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is expected to report disappointing first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with significant declines in both revenue and earnings compared to the previous year [2][5][7]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEO's fiscal first-quarter revenues is $1.1 billion, indicating a 4.6% decline from the same quarter last year [2]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is a loss of 25 cents, representing a 174% decline from earnings of 34 cents reported in the year-ago quarter [2]. - Comparable sales are projected to decline nearly 3%, with American Eagle decreasing 2% and Aerie falling 4% [7]. Operational Challenges - The company has faced persistent macroeconomic pressures affecting consumer discretionary spending, including elevated household debt and inflation, which have dampened consumer confidence among younger shoppers [5]. - Management expressed disappointment with the execution of merchandising strategies, leading to increased promotions and excess inventory, resulting in an inventory charge write-down of approximately $75 million [6][8]. - AEO has withdrawn its earlier guidance for fiscal 2025 due to macro volatility [7]. Future Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, AEO is focused on long-term value creation through its Powering Profitable Growth plan, which emphasizes brand amplification and operational optimization [9]. - The company is taking steps to stabilize margins and enhance profitability by streamlining expenses and improving efficiency [9]. Valuation Perspective - AEO's shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4X, below the five-year median of 12.25X and the industry average of 17.68X, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity [11]. - Over the past six months, AEO's shares have declined by 42.4%, compared to a 10.7% decline in the industry [12].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) to report a quarterly loss of $0.19 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 155.9%, with revenues projected at $1.09 billion, down 4.6% from the previous year [1] Financial Projections - The consensus estimate for total net revenue for American Eagle is $680.05 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 6.2% [4] - Analysts anticipate total net revenue for Aerie to be $357.42 million, representing a decrease of 4.1% compared to the same quarter last year [4] - The projected number of total stores at the end of the period (EOP) is 1,175, slightly up from 1,173 in the previous year [4] Store Metrics - The number of stores for the AE Brand is expected to reach 824, down from 846 in the same quarter last year [5] - The number of stand-alone Aerie stores is projected to be 326, an increase from 307 a year ago [5] - The total gross square footage is expected to be 7.27 million square feet, up from 7.22 million square feet in the previous year [6] Operating Income - Analysts forecast operating income for Aerie to be $58.72 million, down from $61.33 million in the same quarter last year [7] - The expected operating income for American Eagle is $123.95 million, a decrease from $138.59 million reported in the same quarter last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, American Eagle shares have declined by 3.4%, contrasting with a 10.7% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [9] - Based on its Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), AEO is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the upcoming period [9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on May 29, 2025, with a projected loss of $0.19 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 155.9% [3]. - Revenues are forecasted to be $1.09 billion, down 4.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.52% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -30.35%, complicating predictions for an earnings beat [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of deviation from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [6][7]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a strong Zacks Rank increases the chances of a positive surprise, but American Eagle's current Zacks Rank is 3, making predictions uncertain [8][11]. Historical Performance - American Eagle has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a recent surprise of +8% when it reported earnings of $0.54 per share against an expectation of $0.50 [12][13]. Industry Comparison - Abercrombie & Fitch, a competitor in the retail apparel sector, is expected to report an EPS of $1.40, indicating a year-over-year decline of 34.6%, with revenues projected at $1.07 billion, up 5.3% [17]. - Abercrombie's consensus EPS estimate has also been revised down, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -4.22% and a Zacks Rank of 4, indicating challenges in predicting an earnings beat [18].

Core Insights - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Nordstrom (JWN) are competing in the Retail – Apparel and Shoes sector, each adapting to changing consumer preferences and economic challenges with distinct strategies [1][4] - Nordstrom targets an affluent demographic through a dual-channel model, combining full-line department stores with Nordstrom Rack, and emphasizes a high-touch shopping experience [2] - AEO focuses on a younger, value-conscious audience with its brands American Eagle and Aerie, leveraging trends in comfort and digital engagement [3] Nordstrom's Strategy and Performance - Nordstrom is pursuing three main goals: growing the Nordstrom brand, improving operations, and strengthening Nordstrom Rack, with a focus on inventory management and faster product delivery [5] - The company has seen significant online sales contributions, utilizing new technologies for inventory management and enhancing customer engagement [6] - Improvements in the supply chain have led to a 40% reduction in return processing time, increasing efficiency and sales potential [7] American Eagle's Strategy and Performance - AEO is implementing its Powering Profitable Growth Plan, focusing on digital innovation, supply chain automation, and customer experience [8] - The company reported strong operating income growth in Q4 of fiscal 2024, driven by effective cost controls and improved operating margins [9] - Aerie is a key growth driver for AEO, focusing on innovation and expanding customer reach in the body-positive market [10] Financial Outlook and Comparisons - AEO anticipates mid-single-digit revenue declines for Q1 of fiscal 2025, with projected operating income of $20-$25 million, impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar [12] - For fiscal 2025, AEO expects low-single-digit revenue dips and a gross margin decline, with operating income projected at $360-$375 million [13] - In contrast, Nordstrom's fiscal 2025 sales and EPS estimates imply year-over-year growth of 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively [14] Valuation and Stock Performance - Nordstrom trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.89X, below the industry average, indicating reasonable valuation [15] - AEO has a lower P/E ratio of 9.68, positioning it as a more value-oriented option [15] - Over the past year, Nordstrom has gained 16.5%, while AEO has declined by 47.9%, highlighting Nordstrom's stronger stock performance [16] Conclusion - Nordstrom is positioned as a stronger long-term investment due to consistent strategic execution and brand equity, expanding its digital capabilities [18] - AEO shows growth potential but faces volatility and uncertainty, particularly with its fiscal 2025 outlook [19] - For investors seeking stability and long-term value, Nordstrom is the preferred choice, currently rated as a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [20]

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) is experiencing notable stock performance and is preparing for an upcoming earnings report, which is expected to show a significant decline in earnings per share compared to the previous year [1][2]. Company Performance - AEO's stock closed at $11.98, reflecting a 0.67% increase from the previous trading day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.41% [1]. - Over the last month, AEO's shares have increased by 15.76%, exceeding the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 9.47% and the S&P 500's gain of 9% [1]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report on May 29, 2025, is expected to show an EPS of $0.11, which represents a 67.65% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $1.08 billion, down 5.3% from the previous year [2]. Full-Year Estimates - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $1.49 per share and revenue of $5.22 billion, indicating year-over-year changes of -14.37% and -1.97%, respectively [3]. Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for AEO are important for investors, as positive revisions indicate confidence in the company's performance and profit potential [4]. Zacks Rank and Performance - AEO currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having decreased by 0.58% over the past month [6]. - The Zacks Rank system has a strong track record, with 1 stocks averaging an annual return of +25% since 1988 [6]. Valuation Metrics - AEO has a Forward P/E ratio of 8, which is below the industry average of 16.04 [7]. - The company also has a PEG ratio of 0.86, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.58 [8]. Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which AEO belongs, ranks in the bottom 45% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [9].

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) has withdrawn its fiscal 2025 guidance due to macro volatility and disappointing preliminary first-quarter results, leading to a nearly 15% drop in after-hours trading [1] Financial Performance - For the first quarter, revenues are projected to be $1.1 billion, reflecting a nearly 5% decline year-over-year [2] - Comparable sales are expected to decrease by nearly 3%, with American Eagle down 2% and Aerie down 4% [2] - Management anticipates a GAAP operating loss of approximately $85 million and an adjusted operating loss of $68 million for the first quarter, which includes an asset impairment and restructuring charge of about $17 million [3] Inventory and Merchandising Challenges - The company faced challenges with merchandising actions, resulting in increased promotions and excess inventory, leading to a $75 million inventory charge related to spring and summer merchandise write-downs [4][2] - Despite these challenges, AEO has entered the fiscal second quarter with inventory better aligned to sales trends [5] Strategic Initiatives - AEO is focused on its "Powering Profitable Growth Plan," which aims to enhance operating income through disciplined cost management, digital investments, and supply-chain improvements [8] - The company continues to grow the Aerie brand through market expansion and innovation, supporting long-term revenue and margin goals [8] Market Context - AEO's shares have declined by 25.9% over the past six months, compared to a 0.4% decline in the industry, attributed to ongoing performance issues and challenges in the retail environment [6] - The company is facing headwinds from the consumer and macroeconomic landscape, with both earnings and revenues falling compared to the previous year [7]

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. AEO issued a profit warning and withdrew its full-year 2025 guidance on Tuesday.The retailer said it expects first-quarter revenue of $1.1 billion, a 5% decline from the prior year. Comparable sales are projected to be down around 3%, with the American Eagle brand down 2% and the Aerie brand down 4%. The company said it anticipates an operating loss of approximately $85 million, or $68 million on an adjusted basis.American Eagle withdrew its full-year guidance due to broader m ...

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters Inc has withdrawn its 2025 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to a significant decline in stock price and expectations for revenue and operating losses [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a first-quarter revenue decline of 5% to $1.1 billion, with comparable sales expected to fall by 3%, primarily driven by a 4% drop in its Aerie brand [1] - An operating loss of $85 million is projected, attributed to heavy discounting and a $75 million inventory write-down related to spring and summer merchandise [1] Stock Performance - American Eagle's stock has decreased by 51.2% year-over-year and 27.8% year-to-date, with recent trading below the $12 level, which has acted as resistance [2] - Earlier in the week, the stock briefly rallied and broke above its 80-day moving average but has since fallen back below this trendline [2] Options Market Activity - Options traders have reacted to the selloff, with 19,000 puts traded, which is 44 times the typical volume for this session, indicating a bearish sentiment [3] - The June 10 put is the most popular contract, as traders prepare for further downside [3] - The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.99 is higher than all other readings from the past year, reflecting increased put buying [4] - The put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.94 ranks in the 77th percentile of annual readings, indicating a strong put bias among short-term options traders [5]

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle is facing significant challenges, including a $75 million write-off of spring and summer merchandise, slow sales, and has withdrawn its full-year guidance due to an uncertain economic environment [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company expects first-quarter revenue to be approximately $1.1 billion, reflecting a decline of about 5% year-over-year [2]. - Comparable sales are anticipated to drop by 3%, with a notable 4% decline expected in the intimates brand Aerie [2]. - An operating loss of around $85 million is projected, with an adjusted operating loss of about $68 million for the quarter, attributed to higher-than-planned discounting and the $75 million inventory charge [4]. Management Commentary - CEO Jay Schottenstein expressed disappointment with the company's execution in the first quarter, citing ineffective merchandising strategies that led to increased promotions and excess inventory [5]. - The company has entered the second quarter with inventory better aligned to sales trends and is actively evaluating forward plans to strengthen product performance [6]. Market Conditions - The company has withdrawn its fiscal 2025 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty and is reviewing its forward plans in light of first-quarter results [6]. - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of recent tariff policy changes on American Eagle's operations [6].

Company Performance - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) ended the recent trading session at $11.17, showing a +1.27% change from the previous day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.44% [1] - The company's shares have increased by 14.3% over the last month, surpassing the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 9.15% and the S&P 500's gain of 10.62% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming EPS for American Eagle Outfitters is projected at $0.11, indicating a 67.65% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $1.08 billion, reflecting a 5.35% decrease from the equivalent quarter last year [2] - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $1.49 per share and revenue of $5.22 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -14.37% and -1.98%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for American Eagle Outfitters are crucial as they indicate shifting near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting optimism about the company's outlook [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks American Eagle Outfitters as 4 (Sell), with a 0.67% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6] Valuation Metrics - American Eagle Outfitters is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 7.42, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 13.81 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.79, while the average PEG ratio for the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is 1.4 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 149, placing it in the bottom 40% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]