Core Insights - American International Group (AIG) reported a revenue of $6.84 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 3% and a surprise of +0.29% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.82 billion [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was $1.81, compared to $1.16 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of +14.56% against the consensus estimate of $1.58 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - General Insurance combined ratio was reported at 89.3%, better than the four-analyst average estimate of 90.4% [4] - General Insurance expense ratio was 31%, slightly above the four-analyst average estimate of 30.8% [4] - General Insurance loss ratio stood at 58.3%, outperforming the four-analyst average estimate of 59.6% [4] - Net premiums earned in General Insurance were $5.88 billion, below the $5.96 billion average estimate, but represented a year-over-year change of +2.2% [4] - Net investment income for General Insurance was $871 million, exceeding the average estimate of $784.38 million, with a year-over-year increase of +16.8% [4] - Total net investment income was reported at $1.47 billion, significantly higher than the three-analyst average estimate of $946.23 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of +48.1% [4] Stock Performance - AIG shares have returned -5.7% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.5% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1 - American International Group (AIG) reported quarterly earnings of $1.81 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.58 per share, and up from $1.16 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +14.56% [1][2] - The company posted revenues of $6.84 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.29%, and compared to revenues of $6.64 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - AIG has outperformed the market with a share price increase of about 7.8% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 7.1% [3] Group 2 - The earnings outlook for AIG is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The trend of estimate revisions for AIG was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.53 on revenues of $6.91 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.15 on revenues of $27.29 billion [7] Group 3 - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Insurance - Multi line sector is currently in the top 39% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting that companies in the top 50% outperform those in the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]

[Overall Financial Performance](index=1&type=section&id=Overall%20Financial%20Performance) AIG reported strong Q2 2025 results, driven by improved profitability and disciplined capital returns to shareholders [Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Financial%20Highlights) AIG reported strong Q2 2025 results, with adjusted after-tax income per diluted share up 56% and $2.0 billion returned to shareholders Key Financial Highlights | Financial Metric | Q2 2025 ($) | Q2 2024 ($) | % Change YoY (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Income per Diluted Share | $1.98 | ($5.96) | NM | | Adjusted After-Tax Income (AATI) per Diluted Share | $1.81 | $1.16 | 56% | | Net Income | $1.1 billion | ($4.0 billion) | NM | | Adjusted After-Tax Income (AATI) | $1.0 billion | $771 million | 35% | | General Insurance Underwriting Income | $626 million | $430 million | 46% | | Net Investment Income (APTI basis) | $955 million | $879 million | 9% | - Strategic and Operational Progress - **Profitability:** General Insurance achieved a strong calendar year combined ratio of **89.3%**[4](index=4&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk) - **Volatility Management:** Catastrophe-related charges were contained at **$170 million**, representing **2.9 loss ratio points**[4](index=4&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk) - **Operational Efficiency:** The AIG Next initiative has delivered over **$500 million** in savings ahead of schedule[4](index=4&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk) - Net Premiums Written (NPW) grew **1%** year-over-year on a comparable basis, driven by **4%** growth in North America Commercial[5](index=5&type=chunk) - This was partially offset by a **3%** contraction in Global Personal NPW, mainly due to reinsurance structure changes in the High Net Worth business[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Financial Summary](index=3&type=section&id=Financial%20Summary) AIG reported Q2 2025 net income of $1.1 billion, a significant turnaround, with adjusted after-tax income up 35% to $1.0 billion Q2 2025 Financial Summary Metrics | Metric | Q2 2025 ($) | Q2 2024 ($) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net income per diluted share | $1.98 | ($5.96) | | Adjusted after-tax income per diluted share | $1.81 | $1.16 | | Adjusted pre-tax income | $1.391 billion | $1.013 billion | | Return on equity (ROE) | 11.0% | NM | | Core operating return on equity | 11.7% | 8.8% | | Book value per share | $74.14 | $68.40 | - The year-over-year increase in net income was primarily due to a net loss of **$6.67 per diluted share** from the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial in June 2024, which did not recur[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Total net investment income increased by **48%** to **$1.5 billion**, mainly due to fair value changes in AIG's equity in Corebridge and higher income from fixed maturity securities[12](index=12&type=chunk) - On an APTI basis, which excludes the Corebridge impact, net investment income grew **9%** to **$955 million**[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Capital Management and Shareholder Returns](index=2&type=section&id=Capital%20Management%20and%20Shareholder%20Returns) AIG maintained strong capital, returning $2.0 billion to shareholders and retaining $4.8 billion in parent liquidity - Capital Returned to Shareholders in Q2 2025 - **Share Repurchases:** **$1.8 billion** (approx. **21 million shares**)[7](index=7&type=chunk)[14](index=14&type=chunk) - **Dividends:** **$254 million**[7](index=7&type=chunk)[14](index=14&type=chunk) - **Total:** **$2.0 billion**[7](index=7&type=chunk)[14](index=14&type=chunk) - The company ended the quarter with significant financial flexibility, evidenced by **$4.8 billion** in parent liquidity and a total debt to total capital ratio of **17.9%**[7](index=7&type=chunk)[14](index=14&type=chunk) - AIG's financial strength was affirmed by credit rating upgrades from Moody's (to **A1**) and S&P Global (to **AA-**) for its insurance subsidiaries during the quarter[7](index=7&type=chunk)[9](index=9&type=chunk) - The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of **$0.45 per share**, payable on September 30, 2025[16](index=16&type=chunk) [Segment Performance](index=5&type=section&id=Segment%20Performance) AIG's General Insurance segment delivered strong underwriting results, while Other Operations significantly reduced its pre-tax loss [General Insurance](index=5&type=section&id=General%20Insurance) The General Insurance segment delivered excellent results, with underwriting income up 46% and combined ratio improving 3.2 points to 89.3% General Insurance Performance Overview | Metric | Q2 2025 ($ millions) | Q2 2024 ($ millions) | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net premiums written | $6,880 | $6,933 | (1)% | | Underwriting income | $626 | $430 | 46% | | Adjusted pre-tax income | $1,497 | $1,176 | 27% | | Combined Ratio (CR) | 89.3% | 92.5% | (3.2) pts | | Accident Year CR, as adjusted | 88.4% | 87.6% | 0.8 pts | - The improvement in underwriting income was driven by lower catastrophe charges, higher favorable prior year development (**$112 million** vs. **$20 million**), and lower acquisition expenses[17](index=17&type=chunk) - The Accident Year Combined Ratio (AYCR), as adjusted, increased slightly to **88.4%** from **87.6%**, due to a higher accident year loss ratio, partially offset by a lower expense ratio[17](index=17&type=chunk) [North America Commercial](index=6&type=section&id=North%20America%20Commercial) North America Commercial NPW grew 4% to $2.9 billion, with underwriting income surging 58% and combined ratio improving 4.3 points North America Commercial Performance | Metric | Q2 2025 ($ millions) | Q2 2024 ($ millions) | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net premiums written | $2,863 | $2,750 | 4% | | Underwriting income | $301 | $191 | 58% | | Combined Ratio (CR) | 85.9% | 90.2% | (4.3) pts | - The improvement in the combined ratio was largely driven by lower catastrophe charges and more favorable prior year development[19](index=19&type=chunk) [International Commercial](index=6&type=section&id=International%20Commercial) International Commercial NPW grew 2% to $2.3 billion, with underwriting income up 30% and combined ratio improving 2.7 points International Commercial Performance | Metric | Q2 2025 ($ millions) | Q2 2024 ($ millions) | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net premiums written | $2,325 | $2,284 | 2% | | Underwriting income | $300 | $230 | 30% | | Combined Ratio (CR) | 85.9% | 88.6% | (2.7) pts | - The combined ratio improved primarily due to lower catastrophe charges and more favorable prior year development, which was partially offset by a higher expense ratio[20](index=20&type=chunk) [Global Personal](index=7&type=section&id=Global%20Personal) Global Personal NPW declined 11% due to reinsurance changes, yet underwriting income grew 178% with combined ratio improving to 98.5% Global Personal Performance | Metric | Q2 2025 ($ millions) | Q2 2024 ($ millions) | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net premiums written | $1,692 | $1,899 | (11)% | | Underwriting income | $25 | $9 | 178% | | Combined Ratio (CR) | 98.5% | 99.4% | (0.9) pts | - The decline in NPW was mainly driven by a High Net Worth quota share, which had a **6-point** negative impact on growth[21](index=21&type=chunk) - The combined ratio improved due to a lower acquisition ratio, partially offset by a higher loss ratio[21](index=21&type=chunk) [Other Operations](index=8&type=section&id=Other%20Operations) The adjusted pre-tax loss from Other Operations improved 35% to $106 million, driven by reduced corporate expenses and lower interest Other Operations Financial Summary | ($ millions) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net investment income and other | $92 | $142 | (35)% | | Corporate and other GOE | ($90) | ($184) | 51% | | Interest expense | ($101) | ($111) | 9% | | **Adjusted pre-tax loss** | **($106)** | **($163)** | **35%** | - Key drivers of the improved results include - **Lower Corporate Expenses:** GOE improved by **$94 million** due to AIG Next savings and expense reapportionment[25](index=25&type=chunk) - **Lower Interest Expense:** Interest costs decreased by **$10 million** due to debt reduction[25](index=25&type=chunk) - **Lower Investment Income:** Net investment income decreased by **$50 million**, mainly from lower dividend income from a reduced ownership stake in Corebridge[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Supplementary Information](index=8&type=section&id=Supplementary%20Information) This section provides details on the conference call and comprehensive definitions and reconciliations for non-GAAP financial measures [Conference Call](index=8&type=section&id=Conference%20Call) AIG will host a conference call on August 7, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET to discuss Q2 results, with webcast and replay available online - A conference call to review Q2 2025 results is scheduled for **August 7, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET**[23](index=23&type=chunk) [Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations](index=11&type=section&id=Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures%20and%20Reconciliations) This section defines non-GAAP financial measures and provides detailed reconciliation tables to comparable GAAP measures for transparency - The report uses several non-GAAP financial measures to enhance the understanding of underlying profitability and for comparison with competitors[30](index=30&type=chunk)[32](index=32&type=chunk) - Adjusted book value per share - Adjusted tangible book value per share - Core operating book value per share - Adjusted return on equity - Core operating return on equity - Adjusted Pre-tax Income (APTI) - Adjusted After-tax Income (AATI) - Detailed reconciliations for non-GAAP measures to their closest GAAP equivalents are provided, starting on **page 16**, to comply with SEC Regulation G[30](index=30&type=chunk)[48](index=48&type=chunk)

Core Viewpoint - American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on August 6, with earnings estimated at $1.58 per share, reflecting a 36.2% increase from the same quarter last year [1][7]. Earnings Estimates - The earnings estimate for the second quarter has seen five downward revisions in the past 30 days, with no upward revisions [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is projected at $6.8 billion, indicating a 2.7% growth compared to the previous year [2]. Earnings Surprise History - AIG has surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 1.73% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - AIG is predicted to beat earnings expectations due to a positive Earnings ESP of +1.40%, with the most accurate estimate at $1.61 per share [4][5]. Revenue and Income Projections - General Insurance revenues are anticipated to rise by 4% to $6 billion, driven by strong performance in commercial and personal lines [7]. - Net investment income is expected to decline by 4.4% to $946 million due to weaker returns from alternative assets [7][11]. General Insurance Performance - The General Insurance segment is projected to benefit from strong performances in North America Commercial, International Commercial, and Global Personal segments [9]. - The consensus for General Insurance's adjusted pretax income stands at $1.3 billion, reflecting a 13.9% year-over-year growth [11]. Cost and Margin Considerations - Despite cost-cutting measures, AIG's margins are likely to be impacted by a high expense base due to increased losses and loss adjustment expenses [12].

Group 1 - AIG is expected to report earnings of approximately $1.60 per share and revenues of around $6.85 billion, reflecting a 4.5% increase [2] - The company has shifted focus towards property and casualty insurance following the spinoff of its life insurance and retirement segment, with anticipated recovery in underwriting results in the second quarter [2] - AIG's current market capitalization stands at $46 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months reported at $27 billion and net losses of $-1.9 billion [3] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that AIG has had 19 earnings data points over the last five years, with 14 positive and 5 negative one-day post-earnings returns, resulting in a 74% occurrence of positive returns [5] - The median of the 14 positive returns is 2.6%, while the median of the 5 negative returns is -1.3% [5] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can provide a less risky trading strategy, particularly if a strong correlation exists [6]

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Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that American International Group (AIG) will report quarterly earnings of $1.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 36.2%, with revenues expected to reach $6.82 billion, a 2.7% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 2% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Estimates - General Insurance - Net premiums earned are expected to be $5.96 billion, a 3.7% increase year-over-year [5]. - General Insurance - Net investment income is projected at $784.38 million, reflecting a 5.2% year-over-year increase [5]. - Other Operations - Net investment income and other is estimated at $88.75 million, indicating a significant decline of 37.1% year-over-year [5]. Revenue and Ratios - Total net investment income is expected to be $946.23 million, showing a decrease of 4.4% year-over-year [6]. - General Insurance - Combined ratio is projected to be 90.4%, improving from 92.5% in the same quarter last year [6]. - General Insurance - Expense ratio is expected to be 30.8%, down from 31.5% in the previous year [7]. - General Insurance - Loss ratio is anticipated to be 59.6%, compared to 61.0% a year ago [7]. Income Forecast - General Insurance - Adjusted pre-tax income is forecasted to reach $1.34 billion, up from $1.18 billion reported in the same quarter last year [8]. Stock Performance - AIG shares have decreased by 6.7% over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500 composite's increase of 2.3% [8].

Core Viewpoint - American International Group (AIG) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on August 6, with a consensus estimate of quarterly earnings at $1.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +36.2%. Revenues are projected to be $6.82 billion, which is a 2.7% increase from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.04% lower, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that AIG has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.18%, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a potential to beat the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AIG was expected to post earnings of $1.05 per share but exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.17, resulting in a surprise of +11.43%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13][14]. Conclusion - AIG is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, although investors are advised to consider additional factors beyond earnings expectations when making investment decisions [17].

Market Overview - The market capitalization of major US stocks shows varied performance, with Oracle at 762.30 billion, Mastercard at 321.36 billion, and Visa at 770.15 billion, reflecting increases of +0.66%, +0.86%, and +0.68% respectively [3] - Exxon Mobil's market cap is 679.53 billion, with a slight decrease of -0.98%, while Johnson & Johnson and Netflix show minor changes of -0.08% and -0.05% respectively [3] - Companies like Wells Fargo and Cisco have market caps of 270.15 billion and 279.59 billion, with respective increases of +0.98% and -0.58% [3] Notable Stock Movements - T-Mobile US Inc experienced a significant increase of +6.20%, reaching a market cap of 272.19 billion [3] - General Electric and Coca-Cola saw market caps of 285.05 billion and 298.76 billion, with increases of +0.37% and +0.91% respectively [3] - Companies like Disney and Goldman Sachs have market caps of 229.06 billion and 221.80 billion, with slight changes of +0.01% and -0.60% [3] Sector Performance - The technology sector shows mixed results, with Intel at 991.05 billion, down -3.28%, while AMD increased by +2.46% to 254.92 billion [5] - The consumer goods sector is represented by companies like Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, with market caps of 371.68 billion and 298.76 billion, showing slight increases [3][4] - The energy sector, represented by Exxon Mobil and Chevron, shows varied performance, with Exxon down -0.98% and Chevron up +0.66% [3] Summary of Key Companies - Oracle's market cap stands at 762.30 billion, reflecting a positive trend [3] - Mastercard and Visa show strong performance with market caps of 321.36 billion and 770.15 billion, both increasing [3] - Companies like Pfizer and Comcast have market caps of 1579.81 billion and 1332.00 billion, with Pfizer showing minimal change and Comcast down -3.16% [4][5]

Market Performance - The US stock market saw significant gains on July 23, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 507.85 points, or 1.14%, closing at 45010.29 points. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 127.33 points, or 0.61%, closing at 21020.02 points, marking its first close above the 21000-point threshold. The S&P 500 index rose by 49.29 points, or 0.78%, closing at 6358.91 points [1][3][4]. Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and Japan, which has heightened market expectations for further trade agreements before the August 1 tariff deadline. The agreement includes a reduction of the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15% and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US [2][6][7]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, nine out of eleven sectors experienced gains, with the healthcare and industrial sectors leading with increases of 2.03% and 1.75%, respectively. The utilities and consumer staples sectors saw declines of 0.79% and 0.07% [8]. - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with AMD increasing over 3%, and other companies like NVIDIA, Boeing, and TSMC rising over 2%. Financial stocks also saw gains, with Mizuho Financial up over 6% and UBS Group up over 3% [8]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.75%, with notable increases in stocks such as iQIYI, which rose over 4%, and Tiger Brokers, which increased over 3%. However, some stocks like NIO and Li Auto saw declines of over 1% [9].