Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that American International Group (AIG) will report quarterly earnings of $1.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 36.2%, with revenues expected to reach $6.82 billion, a 2.7% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 2% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Estimates - General Insurance - Net premiums earned are expected to be $5.96 billion, a 3.7% increase year-over-year [5]. - General Insurance - Net investment income is projected at $784.38 million, reflecting a 5.2% year-over-year increase [5]. - Other Operations - Net investment income and other is estimated at $88.75 million, indicating a significant decline of 37.1% year-over-year [5]. Revenue and Ratios - Total net investment income is expected to be $946.23 million, showing a decrease of 4.4% year-over-year [6]. - General Insurance - Combined ratio is projected to be 90.4%, improving from 92.5% in the same quarter last year [6]. - General Insurance - Expense ratio is expected to be 30.8%, down from 31.5% in the previous year [7]. - General Insurance - Loss ratio is anticipated to be 59.6%, compared to 61.0% a year ago [7]. Income Forecast - General Insurance - Adjusted pre-tax income is forecasted to reach $1.34 billion, up from $1.18 billion reported in the same quarter last year [8]. Stock Performance - AIG shares have decreased by 6.7% over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500 composite's increase of 2.3% [8].

Core Viewpoint - American International Group (AIG) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on August 6, with a consensus estimate of quarterly earnings at $1.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +36.2%. Revenues are projected to be $6.82 billion, which is a 2.7% increase from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.04% lower, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that AIG has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.18%, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a potential to beat the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AIG was expected to post earnings of $1.05 per share but exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.17, resulting in a surprise of +11.43%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13][14]. Conclusion - AIG is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, although investors are advised to consider additional factors beyond earnings expectations when making investment decisions [17].

Market Overview - The market capitalization of major US stocks shows varied performance, with Oracle at 762.30 billion, Mastercard at 321.36 billion, and Visa at 770.15 billion, reflecting increases of +0.66%, +0.86%, and +0.68% respectively [3] - Exxon Mobil's market cap is 679.53 billion, with a slight decrease of -0.98%, while Johnson & Johnson and Netflix show minor changes of -0.08% and -0.05% respectively [3] - Companies like Wells Fargo and Cisco have market caps of 270.15 billion and 279.59 billion, with respective increases of +0.98% and -0.58% [3] Notable Stock Movements - T-Mobile US Inc experienced a significant increase of +6.20%, reaching a market cap of 272.19 billion [3] - General Electric and Coca-Cola saw market caps of 285.05 billion and 298.76 billion, with increases of +0.37% and +0.91% respectively [3] - Companies like Disney and Goldman Sachs have market caps of 229.06 billion and 221.80 billion, with slight changes of +0.01% and -0.60% [3] Sector Performance - The technology sector shows mixed results, with Intel at 991.05 billion, down -3.28%, while AMD increased by +2.46% to 254.92 billion [5] - The consumer goods sector is represented by companies like Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, with market caps of 371.68 billion and 298.76 billion, showing slight increases [3][4] - The energy sector, represented by Exxon Mobil and Chevron, shows varied performance, with Exxon down -0.98% and Chevron up +0.66% [3] Summary of Key Companies - Oracle's market cap stands at 762.30 billion, reflecting a positive trend [3] - Mastercard and Visa show strong performance with market caps of 321.36 billion and 770.15 billion, both increasing [3] - Companies like Pfizer and Comcast have market caps of 1579.81 billion and 1332.00 billion, with Pfizer showing minimal change and Comcast down -3.16% [4][5]

Market Performance - The US stock market saw significant gains on July 23, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 507.85 points, or 1.14%, closing at 45010.29 points. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 127.33 points, or 0.61%, closing at 21020.02 points, marking its first close above the 21000-point threshold. The S&P 500 index rose by 49.29 points, or 0.78%, closing at 6358.91 points [1][3][4]. Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and Japan, which has heightened market expectations for further trade agreements before the August 1 tariff deadline. The agreement includes a reduction of the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15% and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US [2][6][7]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, nine out of eleven sectors experienced gains, with the healthcare and industrial sectors leading with increases of 2.03% and 1.75%, respectively. The utilities and consumer staples sectors saw declines of 0.79% and 0.07% [8]. - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with AMD increasing over 3%, and other companies like NVIDIA, Boeing, and TSMC rising over 2%. Financial stocks also saw gains, with Mizuho Financial up over 6% and UBS Group up over 3% [8]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.75%, with notable increases in stocks such as iQIYI, which rose over 4%, and Tiger Brokers, which increased over 3%. However, some stocks like NIO and Li Auto saw declines of over 1% [9].

Company Overview - American International Group (AIG) is headquartered in New York and has experienced a price change of 17.95% this year [3] - The company currently pays a dividend of $0.45 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.1%, which is higher than the Insurance - Multi line industry's yield of 1.82% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.54% [3] Dividend Analysis - AIG's current annualized dividend of $1.80 represents a 15.4% increase from the previous year [4] - Over the last 5 years, AIG has increased its dividend 2 times year-over-year, with an average annual increase of 5.58% [4] - The company's current payout ratio is 33%, indicating that it paid out 33% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Earnings Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIG's earnings in 2025 is $6.24 per share, reflecting an expected increase of 26.06% from the previous year [5] Investment Considerations - AIG is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7] - The company is positioned well for income investors, especially compared to tech start-ups or growth businesses that typically do not offer dividends [6][7]

Core Insights - American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is a global insurance company with a market capitalization of $50.3 billion, providing various insurance and financial services across more than 80 countries [2][3] - AIG has experienced a year-to-date gain of 20%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 5.5% [2][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIG's 2025 earnings is $6.24 per share, reflecting a 26.1% year-over-year increase, with expected revenues of $27.4 billion [4] Financial Performance - AIG's net premium written (NPW) increased by 8% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with the North America Commercial segment rising by 14% and the international commercial segment by 5% [6][10] - The company has a forward P/E ratio of 12.67X, higher than the industry average of 9.05X, indicating growing investor confidence [3] Growth Drivers - AIG's growth is driven by increased NPW, high retention rates, and new business generation, particularly in the General Insurance segment [5] - Tata AIG, a high-growth business, has achieved a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% and is expected to maintain this growth through 2030 [7] Capital Management - AIG maintains a strong liquidity position with a solid cash balance and reduced debt levels, allowing for prudent capital deployment through share buybacks and dividend payments [8] - In May 2025, AIG announced a quarterly dividend increase of 12.5%, reflecting its strong financial health [8] Challenges - AIG faces challenges with a deteriorating combined ratio due to catastrophe losses, particularly from California wildfires, impacting its underwriting margins [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes Warren Buffett's unique investment philosophy, focusing on risk assessment and the importance of maintaining a margin of safety rather than relying on complex financial models or predictions [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Buffett prioritizes evaluating potential disaster risks in investments, rejecting opportunities with significant risks immediately [3][10]. - He sets a baseline initial return rate of 15%, aiming for reasonable odds rather than excessive greed [3][9]. - Continuous learning and knowledge accumulation are crucial to Buffett's decision-making process, allowing for quick and accurate judgments [3][8]. Group 2: Key Investment Concepts - The article outlines four core concepts in value investing: intrinsic value, ignoring market volatility, the drawbacks of excessive trading and diversification, and the importance of a margin of safety [7]. - Buffett's investment decisions are characterized by a focus on a few critical factors rather than complex financial models, emphasizing sales growth and cost advantages [9][10]. Group 3: Case Study - Midcontinent Tab Card Company - The case study illustrates Buffett's investment in Midcontinent Tab Card Company, highlighting his initial rejection due to perceived disaster risks when the company was a startup challenging IBM [9]. - After the company demonstrated success in the market, Buffett reconsidered and invested, applying his principles of risk assessment and expected returns [9][10]. - The investment yielded an annualized return of 33% over 18 years, showcasing Buffett's effective application of his investment philosophy [9]. Group 4: Learning and Habits - Buffett's success is attributed to his diligent work habits and a deep-rooted understanding of investment principles acquired from a young age [7][8]. - He emphasizes the importance of avoiding bad habits and cultivating good ones, as they shape long-term success [7][8]. - The article suggests that Buffett's unique traits and disciplined approach to investing are key factors in his sustained success over decades [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report highlights ten stock picks rated as "Buy" that are expected to be resilient in the current uncertain economic environment [11][23]. Core Insights - The initial sell-off in the market was broad-based, with 99% of S&P 500 stocks declining, but the recovery has been uneven, primarily driven by technology stocks [3][11]. - A bottom-up approach is recommended to understand how policies impact individual companies, especially in light of ongoing macroeconomic and policy uncertainties [4][11]. - The report anticipates continued volatility in equity markets as macro and micro data worsen, with a focus on defensive sectors [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 has outperformed the equal-weighted index, with a significant contribution from technology stocks, while many sectors, particularly recession-resilient ones like healthcare, remain below pre-sell-off levels [3][22][19]. - Only 35% of S&P 500 stocks have recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels, indicating a challenging recovery landscape [3][11]. Stock Picks - **AIG (AIG US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 93.00, expected to benefit from its solid risk management and low leverage [6][23]. - **American Tower (AMT US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 245.00, noted for its geographical diversification and resilience in a high-tariff environment [6][24]. - **Coca-Cola (KO US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 82.00, positioned to leverage its brand strength and local sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts [6][29]. - **Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 184.00, recognized for its diversified portfolio and strong R&D pipeline [6][30]. - **McDonald's (MCD US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 343.00, expected to benefit from its franchise model and focus on affordability [6][34]. - **Oracle (ORCL US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 246.00, anticipated to capitalize on AI demand and improve revenue growth [6][37]. - **Procter & Gamble (PG US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 185.00, noted for its strong brand equity and global supply chain [6][40]. - **TechnipFMC (FTI US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 36.00, positioned to benefit from its operational efficiencies [6][43]. - **Walmart (WMT US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 108.00, expected to maintain its market position amid economic challenges [6]. - **Waste Management (WM US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 265.00, recognized for its stable revenue model [6].

Core Insights - American International Group, Inc. (AIG) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.17, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.4%, but down from $1.25 in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted operating revenues were $6.6 billion, a significant decline year over year, missing the consensus mark by 2.6% [1] Financial Performance - The first-quarter earnings were bolstered by new business production and strong retention, although lower premiums and high catastrophe charges from California wildfires negatively impacted results [2] - Total premiums for the quarter were $5.8 billion, down 1.7% year over year, and also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5% [3] - Total net investment income increased by 13% year over year to $1.1 billion, driven by higher income from fixed maturity securities and dividends from Corebridge Financial, beating the consensus by 18.4% [3] - Total benefits, losses, and expenses rose 2.1% year over year to $5.8 billion, primarily due to increased losses and loss adjustment expenses [4] - Adjusted return on equity was 6.4%, consistent with the previous year [4] Segmental Performance - General Insurance – North America Commercial segment reported net premiums written of $1.2 billion, a 14% increase year over year, supported by new business and strong retention [5] - Underwriting income for this segment fell 45% to $129 million, impacted by increased catastrophe charges, which rose to $258 million from $72 million a year ago [6] - General Insurance – International Commercial segment saw net premiums written of $2.0 billion, a 5% increase year over year, with underwriting income decreasing by 27% to $240 million [7] - General Insurance – Global Personal segment reported net premiums written of $1.3 billion, a 14% decrease year over year, with an underwriting loss of $126 million compared to a profit of $30 million in the prior year [8] Investment and Financial Position - AIG's total net investment income rose 51% year over year to $11 million, attributed to dividends from Corebridge [9] - Interest expenses decreased by 21% year over year due to debt reduction, with adjusted pre-tax loss narrowing from $205 million to $70 million [10] - As of March 31, 2025, AIG had a cash balance of $1.4 billion, total assets of $161.9 billion, and long-term debt of $8.6 billion, down from $8.8 billion at the end of 2024 [11] - Total equity fell to $41.5 billion from $42.6 billion at the end of 2024, with total debt to total capital at 17.1% [11] - Adjusted book value per share declined 6.2% year over year to $74.45 [12] Capital Deployment - AIG repurchased shares worth $2.2 billion and distributed dividends of $234 million, with a cash dividend of 45 cents per share for the second quarter, marking a 12.5% increase [13]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $6,783 million, a slight increase from $6,763 million in Q1 2024, representing a 0.3% growth[8] - Net income attributable to AIG common shareholders for Q1 2025 was $698 million, down from $1,194 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 41.7% decrease[8] - Income from continuing operations per common share was $1.18 for Q1 2025, compared to $1.14 in Q1 2024, indicating a 3.5% increase[8] - Comprehensive income attributable to AIG for Q1 2025 was $1,333 million, significantly higher than $457 million in Q1 2024, showing a 191.5% increase[10] - Net income attributable to AIG for Q1 2025 was $698 million, a decrease of 56.3% compared to $1,600 million in Q1 2024[14] Investment Income - Total net investment income for Q1 2025 was $1,105 million, up from $979 million in Q1 2024, marking a 12.9% increase[8] - AIG's total net investment income for Q1 2025 was $736 million, compared to $762 million in Q1 2024, showing a decrease of 3.4%[35] Expenses and Losses - Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred in Q1 2025 were $3,794 million, an increase of 8.0% from $3,513 million in Q1 2024[8] - General operating and other expenses decreased to $1,115 million in Q1 2025 from $1,238 million in Q1 2024, a decline of 9.9%[8] - The company reported net realized losses of $103 million in Q1 2025, compared to $87 million in Q1 2024, indicating a rise of about 18.4%[8] - AIG recognized a loss of $4.8 billion due to the deconsolidation of Corebridge, primarily from an accumulated comprehensive loss of $7.2 billion, impacting financial results significantly[43] Cash Flow and Equity - Cash and restricted cash at the end of Q1 2025 totaled $1,408 million, slightly down from $1,437 million at the end of Q1 2024[15] - Total cash provided by investing activities for continuing operations in Q1 2025 was $2,751 million, compared to $2,980 million in Q1 2024[14] - AIG's total equity at the end of Q1 2025 was $41,459 million, a decrease from $49,110 million at the end of Q1 2024[12] - The company experienced a net cash used in financing activities of $(2,677) million in Q1 2025, compared to $(1,144) million in Q1 2024[14] Stock and Dividends - AIG repurchased $2,229 million of common stock in Q1 2025, compared to $1,640 million in Q1 2024[14] - Dividends on common stock for Q1 2025 were $234 million, compared to $243 million in Q1 2024[14] Segment Performance - In Q1 2025, AIG's North America Commercial segment reported underwriting income of $129 million, while International Commercial achieved $240 million, and Global Personal incurred a loss of $126 million[35] - AIG's total general insurance underwriting income for Q1 2025 was $243 million, with total general operating expenses amounting to $703 million[35] - Total net premiums written for AIG in Q1 2025 amounted to $4.526 billion, with net premiums earned at $5.769 billion, reflecting a significant operational scale[35] Corebridge Impact - Corebridge's pre-tax loss for Q1 2025 was $862 million, while AIG reported equity method income related to Corebridge of $240 million[46] - As of March 31, 2025, AIG holds 23.0% of Corebridge's outstanding common stock following share repurchases and sales[45] Fair Value Measurements - Total assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of March 31, 2025, amounted to $78,188 million[49] - The total bonds available for sale were valued at $66,027 million, with corporate debt contributing $34,813 million to this total[49] - The company utilizes Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 fair value measurements based on market observability and valuation techniques[50]