Company Overview - American International Group (AIG) is headquartered in New York and has experienced a price change of 17.95% this year [3] - The company currently pays a dividend of $0.45 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.1%, which is higher than the Insurance - Multi line industry's yield of 1.82% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.54% [3] Dividend Analysis - AIG's current annualized dividend of $1.80 represents a 15.4% increase from the previous year [4] - Over the last 5 years, AIG has increased its dividend 2 times year-over-year, with an average annual increase of 5.58% [4] - The company's current payout ratio is 33%, indicating that it paid out 33% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Earnings Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIG's earnings in 2025 is $6.24 per share, reflecting an expected increase of 26.06% from the previous year [5] Investment Considerations - AIG is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7] - The company is positioned well for income investors, especially compared to tech start-ups or growth businesses that typically do not offer dividends [6][7]

Core Insights - American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is a global insurance company with a market capitalization of $50.3 billion, providing various insurance and financial services across more than 80 countries [2][3] - AIG has experienced a year-to-date gain of 20%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 5.5% [2][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIG's 2025 earnings is $6.24 per share, reflecting a 26.1% year-over-year increase, with expected revenues of $27.4 billion [4] Financial Performance - AIG's net premium written (NPW) increased by 8% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with the North America Commercial segment rising by 14% and the international commercial segment by 5% [6][10] - The company has a forward P/E ratio of 12.67X, higher than the industry average of 9.05X, indicating growing investor confidence [3] Growth Drivers - AIG's growth is driven by increased NPW, high retention rates, and new business generation, particularly in the General Insurance segment [5] - Tata AIG, a high-growth business, has achieved a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% and is expected to maintain this growth through 2030 [7] Capital Management - AIG maintains a strong liquidity position with a solid cash balance and reduced debt levels, allowing for prudent capital deployment through share buybacks and dividend payments [8] - In May 2025, AIG announced a quarterly dividend increase of 12.5%, reflecting its strong financial health [8] Challenges - AIG faces challenges with a deteriorating combined ratio due to catastrophe losses, particularly from California wildfires, impacting its underwriting margins [9][11]

在谈论沃伦·巴菲特时，很多人习惯聚焦在那些耳熟能详的标签：长期持有、价值投资、复利奇迹。但如果想真正理解，他为什么能持续几十年击败市场，仅靠这 些表面印象远远不够。 2008年，《滚雪球》作者爱丽丝·施罗德（Alice Schroeder）在弗吉尼亚大学价值投资会议的一场演讲中，详细还原了巴菲特一次非常经典且鲜为人知的私人投资 ——中部穿孔卡公司（Midcontinent Tab Card Company）。 编者按 作为巴菲特的传记作者，她曾有机会近距离接触巴菲特及其最核心的圈子，拥有独一无二的观察视角。这场演讲真正与众不同之处在于：施罗德特别强调了巴菲 特作为赔率评估者的思考逻辑。与一般人想象的不同，巴菲特的成功，并不是依靠复杂模型或者超前预测。 他像一个赛马下注师，第一步永远是问自己：这项投资有没有灾难性风险？如果有，立即拒绝，不再浪费时间。这种极端注重赔率评估和风险排查的思维方式， 是他投资方法的出发点，也是他在长期战役中屹立不倒的根基。在这场演讲中，爱丽丝·施罗德也特别强调了巴菲特鲜为人知的一面：他从不建复杂财务模型，只 关注最核心的几组数据；他设定15%的初始回报率作为底线，追求合理赔率，而不是贪 ...

Investment Rating - The report highlights ten stock picks rated as "Buy" that are expected to be resilient in the current uncertain economic environment [11][23]. Core Insights - The initial sell-off in the market was broad-based, with 99% of S&P 500 stocks declining, but the recovery has been uneven, primarily driven by technology stocks [3][11]. - A bottom-up approach is recommended to understand how policies impact individual companies, especially in light of ongoing macroeconomic and policy uncertainties [4][11]. - The report anticipates continued volatility in equity markets as macro and micro data worsen, with a focus on defensive sectors [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 has outperformed the equal-weighted index, with a significant contribution from technology stocks, while many sectors, particularly recession-resilient ones like healthcare, remain below pre-sell-off levels [3][22][19]. - Only 35% of S&P 500 stocks have recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels, indicating a challenging recovery landscape [3][11]. Stock Picks - **AIG (AIG US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 93.00, expected to benefit from its solid risk management and low leverage [6][23]. - **American Tower (AMT US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 245.00, noted for its geographical diversification and resilience in a high-tariff environment [6][24]. - **Coca-Cola (KO US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 82.00, positioned to leverage its brand strength and local sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts [6][29]. - **Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 184.00, recognized for its diversified portfolio and strong R&D pipeline [6][30]. - **McDonald's (MCD US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 343.00, expected to benefit from its franchise model and focus on affordability [6][34]. - **Oracle (ORCL US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 246.00, anticipated to capitalize on AI demand and improve revenue growth [6][37]. - **Procter & Gamble (PG US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 185.00, noted for its strong brand equity and global supply chain [6][40]. - **TechnipFMC (FTI US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 36.00, positioned to benefit from its operational efficiencies [6][43]. - **Walmart (WMT US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 108.00, expected to maintain its market position amid economic challenges [6]. - **Waste Management (WM US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 265.00, recognized for its stable revenue model [6].

Core Insights - American International Group, Inc. (AIG) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.17, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.4%, but down from $1.25 in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted operating revenues were $6.6 billion, a significant decline year over year, missing the consensus mark by 2.6% [1] Financial Performance - The first-quarter earnings were bolstered by new business production and strong retention, although lower premiums and high catastrophe charges from California wildfires negatively impacted results [2] - Total premiums for the quarter were $5.8 billion, down 1.7% year over year, and also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5% [3] - Total net investment income increased by 13% year over year to $1.1 billion, driven by higher income from fixed maturity securities and dividends from Corebridge Financial, beating the consensus by 18.4% [3] - Total benefits, losses, and expenses rose 2.1% year over year to $5.8 billion, primarily due to increased losses and loss adjustment expenses [4] - Adjusted return on equity was 6.4%, consistent with the previous year [4] Segmental Performance - General Insurance – North America Commercial segment reported net premiums written of $1.2 billion, a 14% increase year over year, supported by new business and strong retention [5] - Underwriting income for this segment fell 45% to $129 million, impacted by increased catastrophe charges, which rose to $258 million from $72 million a year ago [6] - General Insurance – International Commercial segment saw net premiums written of $2.0 billion, a 5% increase year over year, with underwriting income decreasing by 27% to $240 million [7] - General Insurance – Global Personal segment reported net premiums written of $1.3 billion, a 14% decrease year over year, with an underwriting loss of $126 million compared to a profit of $30 million in the prior year [8] Investment and Financial Position - AIG's total net investment income rose 51% year over year to $11 million, attributed to dividends from Corebridge [9] - Interest expenses decreased by 21% year over year due to debt reduction, with adjusted pre-tax loss narrowing from $205 million to $70 million [10] - As of March 31, 2025, AIG had a cash balance of $1.4 billion, total assets of $161.9 billion, and long-term debt of $8.6 billion, down from $8.8 billion at the end of 2024 [11] - Total equity fell to $41.5 billion from $42.6 billion at the end of 2024, with total debt to total capital at 17.1% [11] - Adjusted book value per share declined 6.2% year over year to $74.45 [12] Capital Deployment - AIG repurchased shares worth $2.2 billion and distributed dividends of $234 million, with a cash dividend of 45 cents per share for the second quarter, marking a 12.5% increase [13]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $6,783 million, a slight increase from $6,763 million in Q1 2024, representing a 0.3% growth[8] - Net income attributable to AIG common shareholders for Q1 2025 was $698 million, down from $1,194 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 41.7% decrease[8] - Income from continuing operations per common share was $1.18 for Q1 2025, compared to $1.14 in Q1 2024, indicating a 3.5% increase[8] - Comprehensive income attributable to AIG for Q1 2025 was $1,333 million, significantly higher than $457 million in Q1 2024, showing a 191.5% increase[10] - Net income attributable to AIG for Q1 2025 was $698 million, a decrease of 56.3% compared to $1,600 million in Q1 2024[14] Investment Income - Total net investment income for Q1 2025 was $1,105 million, up from $979 million in Q1 2024, marking a 12.9% increase[8] - AIG's total net investment income for Q1 2025 was $736 million, compared to $762 million in Q1 2024, showing a decrease of 3.4%[35] Expenses and Losses - Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred in Q1 2025 were $3,794 million, an increase of 8.0% from $3,513 million in Q1 2024[8] - General operating and other expenses decreased to $1,115 million in Q1 2025 from $1,238 million in Q1 2024, a decline of 9.9%[8] - The company reported net realized losses of $103 million in Q1 2025, compared to $87 million in Q1 2024, indicating a rise of about 18.4%[8] - AIG recognized a loss of $4.8 billion due to the deconsolidation of Corebridge, primarily from an accumulated comprehensive loss of $7.2 billion, impacting financial results significantly[43] Cash Flow and Equity - Cash and restricted cash at the end of Q1 2025 totaled $1,408 million, slightly down from $1,437 million at the end of Q1 2024[15] - Total cash provided by investing activities for continuing operations in Q1 2025 was $2,751 million, compared to $2,980 million in Q1 2024[14] - AIG's total equity at the end of Q1 2025 was $41,459 million, a decrease from $49,110 million at the end of Q1 2024[12] - The company experienced a net cash used in financing activities of $(2,677) million in Q1 2025, compared to $(1,144) million in Q1 2024[14] Stock and Dividends - AIG repurchased $2,229 million of common stock in Q1 2025, compared to $1,640 million in Q1 2024[14] - Dividends on common stock for Q1 2025 were $234 million, compared to $243 million in Q1 2024[14] Segment Performance - In Q1 2025, AIG's North America Commercial segment reported underwriting income of $129 million, while International Commercial achieved $240 million, and Global Personal incurred a loss of $126 million[35] - AIG's total general insurance underwriting income for Q1 2025 was $243 million, with total general operating expenses amounting to $703 million[35] - Total net premiums written for AIG in Q1 2025 amounted to $4.526 billion, with net premiums earned at $5.769 billion, reflecting a significant operational scale[35] Corebridge Impact - Corebridge's pre-tax loss for Q1 2025 was $862 million, while AIG reported equity method income related to Corebridge of $240 million[46] - As of March 31, 2025, AIG holds 23.0% of Corebridge's outstanding common stock following share repurchases and sales[45] Fair Value Measurements - Total assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of March 31, 2025, amounted to $78,188 million[49] - The total bonds available for sale were valued at $66,027 million, with corporate debt contributing $34,813 million to this total[49] - The company utilizes Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 fair value measurements based on market observability and valuation techniques[50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AIG reported adjusted after-tax income of $702 million, or $1.17 per diluted share, for Q1 2025, reflecting strong performance despite a challenging environment [9][10] - Net premiums written increased to $4.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year growth on a comparable basis, driven by a 10% growth in global commercial [10][34] - The general insurance expense ratio improved to 30.5% from 31.8% in the prior year quarter, primarily due to the divestiture of the travel business [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America commercial insurance net premiums written grew 14% year-over-year, with Lexington growing 23%, led by a 27% increase in Lexington casualty [10][34] - International commercial insurance net premiums written grew 8% year-over-year on an FX adjusted basis, with property growing 35% and marine growing 17% [11][12] - The accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 87.8%, the best first quarter result for AIG since the financial crisis, compared to 88.4% in the prior year quarter [12][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market remained favorable in Q1, particularly in segments with strong underlying fundamentals, with North America seeing rate increases led by excess casualty at 16% [14][15] - In international markets, casualty rates increased by 7% while property rates increased by 2%, offset by declines in global specialty and financial lines [17][18] - AIG returned $2.5 billion of capital to shareholders in Q1, including $2.2 billion in share repurchases and $234 million in dividends [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AIG aims to leverage its underwriting culture, reduce volatility, and enhance its capital management strategy to maximize strategic and financial flexibility [7][8] - The company is focused on deploying Gen AI across its operations to improve underwriting processes and risk assessment [7][8] - AIG is strategically positioned in the growing Indian insurance market through its joint venture with Tata Group, expecting significant growth driven by India's economic expansion [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term strategic and financial goals despite geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges [9][10] - The company anticipates a 20% plus earnings per share compound annual growth rate over the next three years and aims for a core operating ROE of 10% to 13% [30][31] - Management highlighted the importance of monitoring tariff impacts and inflation on underwriting pricing and loss costs [27][29] Other Important Information - AIG's book value per share increased by 10% year-over-year to $71.38, while adjusted tangible book value per share decreased by 8% to $67.96 due to the impact of CorBridge deconsolidation [45][46] - The company has a debt to total capital ratio of 17.1% and parent liquidity of $4.9 billion, indicating strong financial flexibility [18][46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry on the transformation to using GenAI - Management explained that the transformation began with digitizing workflows and improving data quality, enabling the adoption of GenAI to enhance underwriting processes [52][53] Question: North America commercial pricing metrics - Management acknowledged headwinds in property pricing but emphasized strong technical pricing and positive trends in casualty rates [55][56] Question: Underwriting pricing policy in light of tariff uncertainty - Management indicated that they are cautious and building risk margins into pricing to account for potential impacts from tariffs and inflation [75][76] Question: Impact of expenses moving from other operations to general insurance segments - Management clarified that while expenses are expected to remain stable, the integration of costs from other operations into general insurance segments has been managed effectively [78][80] Question: M&A environment and capital deployment - Management stated that the uncertainty does not change their disciplined approach to acquisitions, focusing on long-term value and strategic fit [84][85]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AIG reported adjusted after-tax income of $702 million, or $1.17 per diluted share, for Q1 2025, reflecting strong performance despite a challenging environment [11][12] - Net premiums written increased to $4.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year growth on a comparable basis, driven by a 10% growth in global commercial [12][36] - The general insurance expense ratio decreased to 30.5% from 31.8% in the prior year quarter, primarily due to the divestiture of the travel business [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America commercial insurance net premiums written grew 14% year-over-year, with Lexington growing 23%, led by a 27% increase in Lexington casualty [12][36] - International commercial insurance net premiums written grew 8% year-over-year on an FX adjusted basis, with property growing 35% and marine growing 17% [12][13] - The accident year combined ratio as adjusted was 87.8%, the best first quarter result for AIG since the financial crisis, compared to 88.4% in the prior year quarter [14][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, rate increases were led by excess casualty at 16%, while financial lines decreased by 5% and retail property decreased by 7% [16][17] - Internationally, casualty had a 7% rate increase, while property had a 2% increase, offset by a 14% decrease in global specialty and a 3% decrease in financial lines [19][20] - The overall market remained favorable, particularly in segments with strong underlying fundamentals [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AIG aims to leverage its diverse geographic footprint and strong product offerings to meet clients' risk needs, with a focus on deploying Gen AI across its operations [9][10] - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined capital management strategy, with plans to repurchase $5 billion to $6 billion of shares in 2025 [20][35] - AIG is focusing on its joint venture in India, Tata AIG, which is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% through 2030, driven by India's accelerating economy and rising insurance adoption [21][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term strategic and financial goals despite geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges [11][12] - The company anticipates that net retained catastrophe losses will remain within expectations for 2025, largely due to its reinsurance structures [15][19] - AIG expects to achieve a core operating ROE of over 10% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining an expense structure aligned with the company's size [34][49] Other Important Information - AIG returned $2.5 billion of capital to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $2.2 billion in share repurchases and $234 million in dividends [20][35] - The adjusted effective tax rate for Q1 was 22.8%, with expectations for the full year to align with 2024 levels [47][48] - Book value per share increased by 10% year-over-year to $71.38, while adjusted tangible book value per share decreased by 8% to $67.96 due to the impact of the CorBridge deconsolidation [48][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the transformation to using GenAI? - Management indicated that the transformation began with digitizing workflows and improving data quality, enabling the adoption of GenAI to enhance underwriting processes [54][55] Question: What is the current pricing environment in North America? - Management acknowledged some headwinds in property pricing but emphasized strong technical pricing for good returns, with casualty rates remaining robust [57][60] Question: How does uncertainty around tariffs affect underwriting pricing? - Management stated that they are cautious and are building risk margins into pricing to account for potential impacts from tariffs and inflation [78][82] Question: Will the expense impact from other operations continue throughout 2025? - Management expects the expense levels seen in Q1 to be reflective of the overall year, with a focus on maintaining a lean operating model [83][85] Question: How does the current environment affect M&A strategy? - Management remains disciplined in pursuing acquisitions, focusing on long-term value and opportunities that align with AIG's strategic goals [89][90]

First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Presentation May 2, 2025 Copyright ® 2025 by American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, republished or reposted without the permission of AIG. Q1 2025 Earnings Key Themes 1. NPW on a comparable basis reflects constant dollar basis adjustments and the sale of AIG's Travel business in 2024. NPE on a comparable basis reflects the sale of AIG's Travel business in 2024. Refer to page 26 for more detail. * Refers to fina ...

Core Insights - American International Group (AIG) reported a revenue of $6.62 billion for Q1 2025, marking a 47% decline year-over-year and falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.79 billion, resulting in a surprise of -2.59% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same quarter was $1.17, down from $1.77 a year ago, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.05 by 11.43% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - AIG's shares have returned -7.1% over the past month, compared to a -0.7% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite, with a current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3] - General Insurance combined ratio was reported at 95.8%, better than the average estimate of 96.7% from four analysts [4] - The expense ratio for General Insurance was 30.5%, compared to the estimated 31.1% [4] - The loss ratio for General Insurance was 65.3%, slightly better than the 65.6% average estimate [4] - North America Commercial loss ratio was reported at 71.8%, compared to the estimated 71.2% [4] - North America Commercial combined ratio was 93.9%, better than the estimated 94.9% [4] - Net premiums earned in General Insurance were $5.77 billion, below the average estimate of $5.86 billion, reflecting a -0.3% year-over-year change [4] - Net investment income for General Insurance was $736 million, lower than the average estimate of $809.75 million, representing a -3.4% year-over-year change [4] - International Commercial net premiums earned were $2.05 billion, below the estimated $2.10 billion [4] - Global Personal net premiums earned were $1.59 billion, compared to the estimated $1.74 billion [4] - Other Operations reported net investment income and other at $110 million, exceeding the average estimate of $96.73 million, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 358.3% [4] - North America Commercial net premiums earned were $2.12 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $2.06 billion [4] - Total net investment income was reported at $1.11 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $933.40 million, but reflecting a substantial year-over-year decline of 71.7% [4]