Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported strong financial performance for Q2 2025, with significant revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth, driven by robust volume growth in the Americas and resilience against macroeconomic uncertainties [1][3]. Financial Performance Review - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached $1,455 million, a 16% increase from $1,259 million in Q2 2024, with a 13% increase on a constant currency basis [2][6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $210 million, an 18% increase from $178 million in the same period last year, with a 16% increase at constant currency [2][7]. - Profit for the period was $5 million, compared to $2 million in Q2 2024 [2][22]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose to $0.08 from $0.06 year-over-year [2][22]. Regional Performance - In the Americas, revenue increased by 21% to $840 million, driven by favorable volume/mix effects and higher input costs passed to customers [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas grew by 34% to $133 million, reflecting strong volume growth and reduced operational costs [9]. - In Europe, revenue increased by 9% to $615 million, with a 4% increase on a constant currency basis, while Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 3% to $77 million due to lower input cost recovery [10][11]. Guidance and Expectations - The company raised its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $705-$725 million, reflecting improved performance and favorable currency movements [3][6]. - The expected total capital expenditure for 2025 remains unchanged at just over $200 million, with $70 million allocated for growth investments [3][6]. - The company maintains a strong liquidity position of $680 million as of June 30, 2025, with a net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 5.3x, down from 5.8x a year earlier [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) due to higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected on July 24, with a consensus estimate of $0.08 per share, reflecting a +33.3% year-over-year change, and revenues projected at $1.35 billion, up 7.3% from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst assessments [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +6.67% for Ardagh Metal Packaging, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Ardagh Metal Packaging exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.02 per share against an estimate of $0.01, resulting in a +100.00% surprise [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Investment Considerations - While a potential earnings beat is a positive indicator, other factors may also influence stock movement, making it essential to consider the broader context [15][17].

Group 1 - Ardagh Metal Packaging operates in the mature aluminum beverage can industry, which is characterized as functional yet unglamorous [1] - The company focuses on macroeconomic analysis and valuation models, including DCF and multiple-based analysis [1] - Key areas of attention include financial structure, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation discipline [1] Group 2 - The investment approach is particularly interested in companies undergoing transformation or recovery, with a favorable risk/reward profile over a 2–3 year horizon [1] - The aim is to publish in-depth investment theses on undervalued equities and special situation plays that may not be widely recognized [1] - The commitment to transparency and intellectual honesty is emphasized, with every shared idea being one the company would consider investing in personally [1]

Core Insights - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) has a strong history of beating earnings estimates and is well-positioned for continued success in upcoming reports [1][2] Earnings Performance - The company has surpassed earnings estimates by an average of 75.00% over the last two quarters [2] - In the most recent quarter, Ardagh was expected to report earnings of $0.02 per share but reported $0.01 per share, resulting in a surprise of 100.00% [2] - For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.02 per share, while the actual earnings were $0.03 per share, leading to a surprise of 50.00% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Ardagh Metal Packaging have been trending upward, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating potential for an earnings beat [5][8] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] - The current Earnings ESP for Ardagh is +6.67%, suggesting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [8] Upcoming Earnings Report - The next earnings report for Ardagh Metal Packaging is anticipated to be released on July 24, 2025 [8]

Group 1: Company Overview - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is part of the Industrial Products sector, which includes 189 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 11 [2] - The Zacks Rank is a stock-picking model that emphasizes earnings estimates and revisions, with AMBP currently holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [3] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMBP's full-year earnings has increased by 13.2%, indicating improved analyst sentiment and a stronger earnings outlook [4] - Year-to-date, AMBP has gained approximately 30.2%, outperforming the average loss of 1.9% in the Industrial Products group [4] - AMBP belongs to the Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, which includes 9 stocks and currently ranks 91 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with this group gaining about 2.2% year-to-date [6] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Atlas Copco AB (ATLKY) is another stock in the Industrial Products sector that has outperformed, returning 6.3% since the beginning of the year, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] - Atlas Copco AB is part of the Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, which has a lower ranking (144) and has moved -0.1% year-to-date [7]

Company Overview - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is part of the Industrial Products sector, which consists of 190 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 9, indicating its relative strength among sectors [2] - The company is classified under the Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, which includes 9 companies and is ranked 77 in the Zacks Industry Rank [6] Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. has increased by approximately 28.9%, significantly outperforming the average gain of 0.4% in the Industrial Products group [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ardagh's full-year earnings has risen by 1.7% over the past quarter, reflecting improved analyst sentiment and earnings outlook [4] Comparative Analysis - Another stock in the Industrial Products sector, Crown Holdings, has also shown strong performance with a year-to-date increase of 20.3% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] - The Containers - Metal and Glass industry, where Crown Holdings operates, has gained 6.4% since the beginning of the year, ranking 30 among industries [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is experiencing solid improvements in earnings estimates, which may lead to continued positive stock momentum [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts show growing optimism regarding Ardagh's earnings prospects, reflected in upward revisions of earnings estimates [2]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current quarter is $0.07 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of +16.67% [5]. - Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter has risen by 40%, with two estimates moving higher and no negative revisions [5]. - For the full year, the expected earnings are $0.20 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +11.11% [6]. - The consensus estimate for the full year has increased by 13.21% due to three estimates moving higher and no negative revisions [6][7]. Zacks Rank - Ardagh Metal Packaging currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating promising estimate revisions and potential for outperformance [8]. - Stocks with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) have historically outperformed the S&P 500 [8]. Stock Performance - The shares of Ardagh Metal Packaging have increased by 23.9% over the past four weeks, suggesting strong investor confidence in its earnings growth prospects [9].

Group 1 - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) has outperformed the Industrial Products sector with a year-to-date return of approximately 25.6%, while the sector has returned an average of -8.9% [4] - The Zacks Rank for AMBP is currently 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook with a 1.7% increase in the consensus estimate for full-year earnings over the past quarter [3] - AMBP belongs to the Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, which is ranked 42 in the Zacks Industry Rank, and has performed better than this group, which has lost about 5.2% year-to-date [6] Group 2 - The Industrial Products group includes 191 companies and is currently ranked 9 in the Zacks Sector Rank, which evaluates the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks within the sector [2] - Another stock in the Industrial Products sector, Esco Technologies (ESE), has a year-to-date return of 18.3% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with a consensus EPS estimate increase of 18.8% over the past three months [4][5] - The Manufacturing - Electronics industry, to which Esco Technologies belongs, is ranked 66 and has declined by -14.4% year-to-date [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, global shipments grew by 6% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% compared to the prior year, exceeding initial guidance [6][25]. - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $570 million, reflecting a seasonal working capital outflow [20]. - Net leverage improved to 5.5 times net debt over the last twelve months adjusted EBITDA, down from 6.2 times reported in Q1 2024 [21][22]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q1 revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, with shipments growing by 5% [13][14]. - In the Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million [15][16]. - North America shipments increased by 8%, driven by strong demand for nonalcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks [16]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beverage can continues to gain market share in customers' packaging mix, with strong trends in customer innovation favoring beverage cans [9][26]. - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 4%, outperforming the industry, which grew modestly [17]. - The company anticipates a low to mid-single-digit percentage growth in shipments for Brazil for 2025, maintaining a cautious outlook [18][19]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is upgrading its full-year guidance for shipments growth to 3% to 4%, up from the initial 2% to 3% [27]. - Full-year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $695 million to $720 million, reflecting improved underlying business performance and favorable currency outlook [27]. - The company is focusing on high-return projects to increase capacity and flexibility in Europe, indicating a proactive approach to meet future demand [70][120]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business despite a dynamic macro environment, with minimal anticipated impact from tariff measures [8][10]. - The company remains cautious about the back half of the year due to potential volatility in the macro environment [101][114]. - Management highlighted strong customer performance in North America, particularly in innovative beverage categories, as a key driver for the positive outlook [58][61]. Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, with no changes to its capital allocation policy [24]. - The company expects adjusted free cash flow for 2025 to be at least $150 million, with maintenance CapEx around $135 million [22]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in April and impact of tariffs - Management noted no change in order behavior in April and attributed the guidance upgrade to continued sales momentum, particularly in North America [32][34]. Question: Confidence in North American energy market - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the energy category, noting broad-based growth across customer segments [37][39]. Question: Customer mix issues in Brazil - Management acknowledged volatility in Brazil but maintained a cautious outlook despite a positive start to the year [50][52]. Question: Competitive landscape and contract renewals - Management indicated no material risk to volumes or margins from the competitive environment, with discussions on contract renewals progressing well [86][88]. Question: Utilization rates and new capacity in Brazil - Management stated that North America is operating in the nineties for utilization rates, while Brazil remains complex with lower utilization [94][96]. Question: Free cash flow and leverage outlook - Management is optimistic about free cash flow generation and expects leverage to decrease by year-end, primarily through EBITDA growth [135].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 6% growth in global shipments and a 16% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, exceeding initial guidance [5][19] - Adjusted EBITDA growth was driven by higher volumes and improved fixed cost absorption [5][19] - The liquidity position at the end of the quarter was $570 million, with a net leverage ratio of 5.5 times net debt over the last twelve months adjusted EBITDA, improved from 6.2 times in Q1 2024 [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q1 revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, or 14% on a constant currency basis, with shipments growing by 5% [10] - In the Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million due to favorable volume growth [11] - North American shipments increased by 8%, driven by strong demand for nonalcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beverage can continues to gain market share in customers' packaging mix across all markets [6][19] - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 4%, outperforming the industry, which grew modestly [13] - The company anticipates shipments growth in the Americas segment of low to mid single digits for 2025, an increase from previous guidance [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects minimal impact from tariff measures due to the regional nature of its suppliers and customers [6][19] - There is a focus on customer innovation favoring beverage cans, which supports continued favorable shipment growth [7][19] - The company is targeting high-return projects to increase capacity and flexibility in Europe, reflecting the need for additional capacity to meet market growth [96][98] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business despite a dynamic macro environment, with expectations for continued favorable shipment growth [5][19] - The company upgraded its full-year guidance for shipments growth to 3% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA to a range of $695 million to $720 million [19][20] - Management remains cautious about the back half of the year due to potential macroeconomic volatility [80][92] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, with no changes to its capital allocation policy [17] - The company expects adjusted free cash flow for 2025 to be at least $150 million, with maintenance CapEx around $135 million [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in April and potential impacts from tariffs - Management noted no changes in April trends and attributed the guidance upgrade to continued sales momentum, particularly in North America [22][23] Question: Confidence in North American energy market recovery - Management expressed confidence in a broad-based recovery in the energy category, with strong growth from both traditional and innovative players [27][29] Question: Customer mix issues in Brazil - Management acknowledged volatility in Brazil but noted a strong performance in March, indicating a positive outlook despite caution [39][40] Question: Competitive landscape and contract renewals - Management indicated no material risks to volumes or margins from the competitive environment, with ongoing discussions about contract renewals progressing well [66][68] Question: Long-term growth outlook and beer category performance - Management remains optimistic about North American growth, suggesting potential recovery in the beer category if domestic brands regain market share from imports [104][105]