Company Overview - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. has announced a quarterly interim dividend of $0.10 per ordinary share, payable on August 19, 2025, to shareholders of record on August 7, 2025 [1] - The company is a leading global supplier of sustainable and infinitely recyclable metal beverage cans, operating as part of the Ardagh Group [1] - Ardagh Metal Packaging operates 23 production facilities across nine countries, employing over 6,000 people and generating approximately $4.9 billion in sales for the year 2024 [1] Industry Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the metal beverage can industry across Europe and the Americas, highlighting its innovative production capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) due to higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected on July 24, with a consensus estimate of $0.08 per share, reflecting a +33.3% year-over-year change, and revenues projected at $1.35 billion, up 7.3% from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst assessments [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +6.67% for Ardagh Metal Packaging, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Ardagh Metal Packaging exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.02 per share against an estimate of $0.01, resulting in a +100.00% surprise [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Investment Considerations - While a potential earnings beat is a positive indicator, other factors may also influence stock movement, making it essential to consider the broader context [15][17].

Group 1 - Ardagh Metal Packaging operates in the mature aluminum beverage can industry, which is characterized as functional yet unglamorous [1] - The company focuses on macroeconomic analysis and valuation models, including DCF and multiple-based analysis [1] - Key areas of attention include financial structure, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation discipline [1] Group 2 - The investment approach is particularly interested in companies undergoing transformation or recovery, with a favorable risk/reward profile over a 2–3 year horizon [1] - The aim is to publish in-depth investment theses on undervalued equities and special situation plays that may not be widely recognized [1] - The commitment to transparency and intellectual honesty is emphasized, with every shared idea being one the company would consider investing in personally [1]

Core Insights - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) has a strong history of beating earnings estimates and is well-positioned for continued success in upcoming reports [1][2] Earnings Performance - The company has surpassed earnings estimates by an average of 75.00% over the last two quarters [2] - In the most recent quarter, Ardagh was expected to report earnings of $0.02 per share but reported $0.01 per share, resulting in a surprise of 100.00% [2] - For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.02 per share, while the actual earnings were $0.03 per share, leading to a surprise of 50.00% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Ardagh Metal Packaging have been trending upward, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating potential for an earnings beat [5][8] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] - The current Earnings ESP for Ardagh is +6.67%, suggesting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [8] Upcoming Earnings Report - The next earnings report for Ardagh Metal Packaging is anticipated to be released on July 24, 2025 [8]

Group 1: Company Overview - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is part of the Industrial Products sector, which includes 189 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 11 [2] - The Zacks Rank is a stock-picking model that emphasizes earnings estimates and revisions, with AMBP currently holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [3] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMBP's full-year earnings has increased by 13.2%, indicating improved analyst sentiment and a stronger earnings outlook [4] - Year-to-date, AMBP has gained approximately 30.2%, outperforming the average loss of 1.9% in the Industrial Products group [4] - AMBP belongs to the Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, which includes 9 stocks and currently ranks 91 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with this group gaining about 2.2% year-to-date [6] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Atlas Copco AB (ATLKY) is another stock in the Industrial Products sector that has outperformed, returning 6.3% since the beginning of the year, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] - Atlas Copco AB is part of the Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, which has a lower ranking (144) and has moved -0.1% year-to-date [7]

Company Overview - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is part of the Industrial Products sector, which consists of 190 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 9, indicating its relative strength among sectors [2] - The company is classified under the Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, which includes 9 companies and is ranked 77 in the Zacks Industry Rank [6] Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. has increased by approximately 28.9%, significantly outperforming the average gain of 0.4% in the Industrial Products group [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ardagh's full-year earnings has risen by 1.7% over the past quarter, reflecting improved analyst sentiment and earnings outlook [4] Comparative Analysis - Another stock in the Industrial Products sector, Crown Holdings, has also shown strong performance with a year-to-date increase of 20.3% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] - The Containers - Metal and Glass industry, where Crown Holdings operates, has gained 6.4% since the beginning of the year, ranking 30 among industries [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is experiencing solid improvements in earnings estimates, which may lead to continued positive stock momentum [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts show growing optimism regarding Ardagh's earnings prospects, reflected in upward revisions of earnings estimates [2]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current quarter is $0.07 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of +16.67% [5]. - Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter has risen by 40%, with two estimates moving higher and no negative revisions [5]. - For the full year, the expected earnings are $0.20 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +11.11% [6]. - The consensus estimate for the full year has increased by 13.21% due to three estimates moving higher and no negative revisions [6][7]. Zacks Rank - Ardagh Metal Packaging currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating promising estimate revisions and potential for outperformance [8]. - Stocks with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) have historically outperformed the S&P 500 [8]. Stock Performance - The shares of Ardagh Metal Packaging have increased by 23.9% over the past four weeks, suggesting strong investor confidence in its earnings growth prospects [9].

Group 1 - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) has outperformed the Industrial Products sector with a year-to-date return of approximately 25.6%, while the sector has returned an average of -8.9% [4] - The Zacks Rank for AMBP is currently 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook with a 1.7% increase in the consensus estimate for full-year earnings over the past quarter [3] - AMBP belongs to the Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, which is ranked 42 in the Zacks Industry Rank, and has performed better than this group, which has lost about 5.2% year-to-date [6] Group 2 - The Industrial Products group includes 191 companies and is currently ranked 9 in the Zacks Sector Rank, which evaluates the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks within the sector [2] - Another stock in the Industrial Products sector, Esco Technologies (ESE), has a year-to-date return of 18.3% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with a consensus EPS estimate increase of 18.8% over the past three months [4][5] - The Manufacturing - Electronics industry, to which Esco Technologies belongs, is ranked 66 and has declined by -14.4% year-to-date [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, global shipments grew by 6% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% compared to the prior year, exceeding initial guidance [6][25]. - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $570 million, reflecting a seasonal working capital outflow [20]. - Net leverage improved to 5.5 times net debt over the last twelve months adjusted EBITDA, down from 6.2 times reported in Q1 2024 [21][22]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q1 revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, with shipments growing by 5% [13][14]. - In the Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million [15][16]. - North America shipments increased by 8%, driven by strong demand for nonalcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks [16]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beverage can continues to gain market share in customers' packaging mix, with strong trends in customer innovation favoring beverage cans [9][26]. - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 4%, outperforming the industry, which grew modestly [17]. - The company anticipates a low to mid-single-digit percentage growth in shipments for Brazil for 2025, maintaining a cautious outlook [18][19]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is upgrading its full-year guidance for shipments growth to 3% to 4%, up from the initial 2% to 3% [27]. - Full-year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $695 million to $720 million, reflecting improved underlying business performance and favorable currency outlook [27]. - The company is focusing on high-return projects to increase capacity and flexibility in Europe, indicating a proactive approach to meet future demand [70][120]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business despite a dynamic macro environment, with minimal anticipated impact from tariff measures [8][10]. - The company remains cautious about the back half of the year due to potential volatility in the macro environment [101][114]. - Management highlighted strong customer performance in North America, particularly in innovative beverage categories, as a key driver for the positive outlook [58][61]. Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, with no changes to its capital allocation policy [24]. - The company expects adjusted free cash flow for 2025 to be at least $150 million, with maintenance CapEx around $135 million [22]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in April and impact of tariffs - Management noted no change in order behavior in April and attributed the guidance upgrade to continued sales momentum, particularly in North America [32][34]. Question: Confidence in North American energy market - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the energy category, noting broad-based growth across customer segments [37][39]. Question: Customer mix issues in Brazil - Management acknowledged volatility in Brazil but maintained a cautious outlook despite a positive start to the year [50][52]. Question: Competitive landscape and contract renewals - Management indicated no material risk to volumes or margins from the competitive environment, with discussions on contract renewals progressing well [86][88]. Question: Utilization rates and new capacity in Brazil - Management stated that North America is operating in the nineties for utilization rates, while Brazil remains complex with lower utilization [94][96]. Question: Free cash flow and leverage outlook - Management is optimistic about free cash flow generation and expects leverage to decrease by year-end, primarily through EBITDA growth [135].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 6% growth in global shipments and a 16% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, exceeding initial guidance [5][19] - Adjusted EBITDA growth was driven by higher volumes and improved fixed cost absorption [5][19] - The liquidity position at the end of the quarter was $570 million, with a net leverage ratio of 5.5 times net debt over the last twelve months adjusted EBITDA, improved from 6.2 times in Q1 2024 [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q1 revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, or 14% on a constant currency basis, with shipments growing by 5% [10] - In the Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million due to favorable volume growth [11] - North American shipments increased by 8%, driven by strong demand for nonalcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beverage can continues to gain market share in customers' packaging mix across all markets [6][19] - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 4%, outperforming the industry, which grew modestly [13] - The company anticipates shipments growth in the Americas segment of low to mid single digits for 2025, an increase from previous guidance [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects minimal impact from tariff measures due to the regional nature of its suppliers and customers [6][19] - There is a focus on customer innovation favoring beverage cans, which supports continued favorable shipment growth [7][19] - The company is targeting high-return projects to increase capacity and flexibility in Europe, reflecting the need for additional capacity to meet market growth [96][98] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business despite a dynamic macro environment, with expectations for continued favorable shipment growth [5][19] - The company upgraded its full-year guidance for shipments growth to 3% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA to a range of $695 million to $720 million [19][20] - Management remains cautious about the back half of the year due to potential macroeconomic volatility [80][92] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, with no changes to its capital allocation policy [17] - The company expects adjusted free cash flow for 2025 to be at least $150 million, with maintenance CapEx around $135 million [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in April and potential impacts from tariffs - Management noted no changes in April trends and attributed the guidance upgrade to continued sales momentum, particularly in North America [22][23] Question: Confidence in North American energy market recovery - Management expressed confidence in a broad-based recovery in the energy category, with strong growth from both traditional and innovative players [27][29] Question: Customer mix issues in Brazil - Management acknowledged volatility in Brazil but noted a strong performance in March, indicating a positive outlook despite caution [39][40] Question: Competitive landscape and contract renewals - Management indicated no material risks to volumes or margins from the competitive environment, with ongoing discussions about contract renewals progressing well [66][68] Question: Long-term growth outlook and beer category performance - Management remains optimistic about North American growth, suggesting potential recovery in the beer category if domestic brands regain market share from imports [104][105]