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JohnnyGreig/E+ via Getty Images I have been digging up under covered and lesser known stocks recently. The most recent stock is Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP). Ardagh is a Luxembourg-based company that supplies metal beverage cans for various uses such as beer/wine, energy drinks, soda, juices, teas, hard seltzers, and sparkling water. The company has some positive things going for it, which can help drive the stock higher in 2024 and beyond. Growth Catalysts Conditions are likely changing for ...

Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) has experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in a 10.3% decline in stock price over the past four weeks, but analysts anticipate improved earnings in the near future [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Technical Indicators - AMBP's current Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is 29.47, indicating that the stock is in oversold territory and may be poised for a rebound as selling pressure exhausts [4] - A stock is generally considered oversold when its RSI falls below 30, suggesting potential entry opportunities for investors [2] Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for AMBP has increased by 2.1%, reflecting a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions [4] - AMBP holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate trends and EPS surprises, indicating strong potential for a turnaround [5]

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) Q3 2023 Results Conference Call October 26, 2023 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Stephen Lyons - Investor Relations Oliver Graham - Chief Executive Officer David Bourne - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Mike Roxland - Truist Securities Anthony Pettinari - Citi Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets Operator Good day, and welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging Third Quarter 2023 Investor Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d ...

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call July 27, 2023 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Stephen Lyons – Investor Relations Oliver Graham – Chief Executive Officer David Bourne – Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants George Staphos – Bank of America Arun Viswanathan – RBC Capital Markets Kyle White – Deutsche Bank Gabe Hajde – Wells Fargo Securities Mike Roxland – Truist Securities Ning Yang - Jupiter Asset Management Operator Good day, everyone, and welcome to t ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Revenue for Q1 2023 was $1.1 billion, representing a 2% growth on a constant currency basis, driven by higher volumes [10] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2023 was $130 million, down 8% on a constant currency basis compared to the prior year, due to higher operating costs and timing of inflation recovery recognition [10] - Global shipment growth was 3%, with 5% growth in North America and 2% growth in Europe, offsetting a 1% decline in Brazil [10] - The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, expecting global shipment growth in the mid to high single-digit percentage range and adjusted EBITDA growth of around 10%, weighted towards the second half of the year [22] Business Line Performance - In North America, shipments grew by 5%, driven by non-alcoholic categories, which represent the majority of the business. The hard seltzer category accounted for 8% of shipments but remained under pressure [11] - In Brazil, shipments declined modestly due to customer mix effects and destocking, with the market recording high single-digit growth against a weak 2022 comparator [13] - In Europe, revenue increased by 3% on a constant currency basis, with shipments growing by 2%, led by carbonated soft drinks. Adjusted EBITDA in Europe fell by 8% due to higher overhead costs and timing of inflation recovery recognition [16] Market Performance - North America saw strong volume growth and improved manufacturing efficiency, with early signs of promotional activity picking up, especially in non-alcoholic beverages [6][12] - Europe experienced resilient consumer demand, particularly in carbonated soft drinks, but the beer market saw softer performance in the off-trade segment [16] - Brazil's market is slowly recovering, with volumes expected to grow at a high single-digit percentage in 2023, supported by new capacity and easing input cost pressures [13][15] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company is managing capacity through curtailment actions to moderate its footprint ahead of demand growth, positioning for investment-free growth [7] - The company is committed to sustainability, achieving a leadership A rating from CDP for supplier engagement and signing a PPA agreement in Germany to cover 20% of its electricity needs [8][9] - The company expects industry growth in 2023 to be supported by positive secular tailwinds, with low single-digit growth in the Americas and low to mid-single-digit growth in Europe [7] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that global demand remains restrained by retail price inflation but is encouraged by early signs of promotional activity in North America and a moderating outlook for consumer pricing [6] - The company expects adjusted EBITDA to accelerate through the year due to inflation recovery and volume improvement, with a significant increase in adjusted free cash flow anticipated in 2023 and beyond [7][21] - Management reaffirmed guidance for 2023, expecting global shipment growth in the mid to high single-digit percentage range and adjusted EBITDA growth of around 10%, weighted towards the second half of the year [22] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of approximately $0.5 billion and incurred $90 million in growth CapEx and $36 million in maintenance CapEx [18][19] - Net leverage at the end of the quarter was 5.8x LTM adjusted EBITDA, with expectations of deleveraging by the end of the year and further improvement in 2024 [19][20] - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, in line with its guidance and supported by improving cash generation outlook [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Full-year guidance implies a strong second-half earnings inflection. What drives this? [24] - The acceleration in volume recovery and inflation recovery, with the drag from Q1 timing of PPI mechanisms no longer affecting subsequent quarters [25] Question: Sustainability of the dividend given the current yield [26] - The company expects a meaningful step-down in CapEx in 2024, leading to investment-free growth and sustainable dividend funding [27][28] Question: Confidence in promotional activity picking up in non-alcoholic beverages [32] - Management believes promotional activity will return due to the elastic nature of the categories and moderating inflation, with signals from customers indicating increased promotions in Q2 and beyond [34][35][36] Question: Customer dynamics and destocking trends [40] - In Europe, consumer demand is resilient but under pressure, with volatility in demand patterns. North America shows strength in soft drinks and energy drinks, while Brazil is recovering from a weak 2022 comparator [42][43][44][45][46] Question: European contracts and inflation recovery [51] - The company completed direct energy pass-through mechanisms with customers last year and expects over-recovery on inflation in 2023, with margin levels returning to 75-80% of 2021 levels [52] Question: Supply-demand balance in key markets [58] - The company is managing capacity to keep utilization in the 90s, with actions such as curtailments and closures to balance supply and demand [59] Question: Impact of new entrants on the market [81] - New entrants have some contractual coverage, but the company does not expect significant impact on its position due to its strong contracted position [82] Question: Long-term outlook for cans vs. glass in Brazil [86] - The company expects continued growth in cans due to consumer preference and retailer adoption, with a shift away from returnable packaging [87][88][89] Question: Working capital and payables [86] - The company is working to align inventory with demand, expecting a $100 million working capital inflow for the year, with payables adjustments being part of the transitional process [91][92] Question: CapEx guidance for 2023 [94] - The company's CapEx is front-loaded, with investments largely finishing projects started last year, leading to a step-down in CapEx in the second half of the year [95]

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 20-F (Mark One) ☐ REGISTRATIONSTATEMENTPURSUANTTOSECTION12(b)OR(g)OFTHESECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR ☒ ANNUALREPORTPURSUANTTOSECTION13OR15(d)OF THESECURITIESEXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR ☐ SHELL COMPANY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q4 2022 was $1.1 billion, representing a 5% growth on a constant currency basis, primarily due to the pass-through of higher input costs [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2022 was $159 million, showing a modest increase compared to the prior year on a constant currency basis [7][11] - For the full year, adjusted EBITDA declined by 1% on a constant currency basis due to input cost pressures and fixed cost under absorption [4][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total beverage can shipments in Q4 2022 increased by 1% year-over-year, with growth in Europe and North America, while Brazil experienced a decline [7][9] - In North America, shipments grew by 3% in Q4 and 5% for the year, despite inflationary pressures impacting demand [8][10] - In Brazil, Q4 shipments declined by a high single-digit percentage, underperforming the market, which recorded low single-digit growth [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The European market saw a 12% increase in revenue for Q4 2022 on a constant currency basis, mainly due to higher input costs [11][12] - Consumer demand in Europe was resilient, particularly in carbonated soft drinks, despite some softness in the beer market [12][13] - The company anticipates low to mid-single-digit growth rates in Europe and low single-digit growth in North America and Brazil for 2023 [4][5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to reduce growth investments to balance supply with demand and focus on adjusted free cash flow generation [5][19] - AMP aims to capitalize on sustainability trends and innovation in the beverage can market, expecting to grow ahead of the market globally [4][20] - The company is committed to a disciplined capacity management approach, including the closure of a legacy steel line in Germany [14][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering significant growth in earnings and cash flow in 2023, despite challenges faced in 2022 [4][19] - The outlook for the beverage can market remains positive, with expectations of a return to promotional activity in North America and a recovery in Brazil in the second half of 2023 [19][76] - The company is actively managing energy costs and has hedged its energy requirements for 2023, improving the near-term energy outlook [13][71] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 2022 with a liquidity position approaching $1 billion, including $555 million in cash [16][17] - AMP announced a first-quarter dividend of $0.10 per share, indicating a sustainable dividend supported by stronger cash generation [18][19] - The company expects to generate positive adjusted free cash flow in 2023, with a significant reduction in growth investments anticipated [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on Americas volumes and guidance - Management noted that softer market conditions in Brazil led to customers rebalancing their supplier portfolios, impacting volumes [25][26] - The expectation for Brazil's market growth is high single-digit for the full year, with EBITDA growth weighted more towards North America [30][31] Question: Year-over-year free cash flow bridge - Management provided details on working capital inflow, business growth investment, maintenance CapEx, cash interest, and taxes [34] Question: Hard Seltzer demand forecasts - Management anticipates flat to slightly negative growth in Hard Seltzer, with other beverage categories expected to grow [36] Question: EBITDA shortfall unpacking - Management attributed the EBITDA shortfall to European energy issues, metal mismatches, and volume mix impacts [39][40] Question: 1Q volume trends - North America showed healthy January performance, while Brazil remained soft, with expectations for improvement in the second half [42] Question: Fixed cost under absorption normalization - Management expects normalization of fixed cost absorption during 2024, with a significant drag in the tens of millions [44] Question: Capacity expansion plans - The third line in Huron is expected to come online this year, with greenfield projects delayed until demand permits [46][47] Question: Balance sheet leverage - Management aims to modestly deleverage in 2023, with a more significant reduction expected in 2024 as growth investment requirements decrease [59] Question: Promotional activity impact on growth outlook - Management indicated that while promotional activity is a factor, it is not solely relied upon for growth guidance [60][61] Question: Capacity adjustments if growth does not materialize - Management stated that they continuously review capacity and will make adjustments as necessary to align with market conditions [64][65]

Graphic Table of Co Exhibit 99.1 INDEX TO THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Audited Financial Statements | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | Report of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm ( PCAOB ID 1366 ) | F-2 | | Consolidated Income Statement for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020 | F-5 | | Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income for the ye ...

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) Q3 2022 Results Conference Call October 27, 2022 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Stephen Lyons - IR Oliver Graham - CEO David Bourne - CFO Conference Call Participants Angel Castillo - Morgan Stanley Anthony Pettinari - Citibank Kyle White - Deutsche Bank George Staphos - Bank of America Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets Mark Wilde - Bank of Montreal Jay Mayers - Goldman Sachs Ed Brucker - Barclays Roger Spitz - Bank of America Rachel Fox - Guggenheim Partners Er ...