Ardagh Metal Packaging(AMBP)
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Ardagh Metal Packaging(AMBP) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-24 18:05
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, global shipments grew by 6% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% compared to the prior year, exceeding initial guidance [6][25]. - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $570 million, reflecting a seasonal working capital outflow [20]. - Net leverage improved to 5.5 times net debt over the last twelve months adjusted EBITDA, down from 6.2 times reported in Q1 2024 [21][22]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q1 revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, with shipments growing by 5% [13][14]. - In the Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million [15][16]. - North America shipments increased by 8%, driven by strong demand for nonalcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks [16]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beverage can continues to gain market share in customers' packaging mix, with strong trends in customer innovation favoring beverage cans [9][26]. - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 4%, outperforming the industry, which grew modestly [17]. - The company anticipates a low to mid-single-digit percentage growth in shipments for Brazil for 2025, maintaining a cautious outlook [18][19]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is upgrading its full-year guidance for shipments growth to 3% to 4%, up from the initial 2% to 3% [27]. - Full-year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $695 million to $720 million, reflecting improved underlying business performance and favorable currency outlook [27]. - The company is focusing on high-return projects to increase capacity and flexibility in Europe, indicating a proactive approach to meet future demand [70][120]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business despite a dynamic macro environment, with minimal anticipated impact from tariff measures [8][10]. - The company remains cautious about the back half of the year due to potential volatility in the macro environment [101][114]. - Management highlighted strong customer performance in North America, particularly in innovative beverage categories, as a key driver for the positive outlook [58][61]. Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, with no changes to its capital allocation policy [24]. - The company expects adjusted free cash flow for 2025 to be at least $150 million, with maintenance CapEx around $135 million [22]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in April and impact of tariffs - Management noted no change in order behavior in April and attributed the guidance upgrade to continued sales momentum, particularly in North America [32][34]. Question: Confidence in North American energy market - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the energy category, noting broad-based growth across customer segments [37][39]. Question: Customer mix issues in Brazil - Management acknowledged volatility in Brazil but maintained a cautious outlook despite a positive start to the year [50][52]. Question: Competitive landscape and contract renewals - Management indicated no material risk to volumes or margins from the competitive environment, with discussions on contract renewals progressing well [86][88]. Question: Utilization rates and new capacity in Brazil - Management stated that North America is operating in the nineties for utilization rates, while Brazil remains complex with lower utilization [94][96]. Question: Free cash flow and leverage outlook - Management is optimistic about free cash flow generation and expects leverage to decrease by year-end, primarily through EBITDA growth [135].
Ardagh Metal Packaging(AMBP) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-24 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 6% growth in global shipments and a 16% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, exceeding initial guidance [5][19] - Adjusted EBITDA growth was driven by higher volumes and improved fixed cost absorption [5][19] - The liquidity position at the end of the quarter was $570 million, with a net leverage ratio of 5.5 times net debt over the last twelve months adjusted EBITDA, improved from 6.2 times in Q1 2024 [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q1 revenue increased by 10% to $528 million, or 14% on a constant currency basis, with shipments growing by 5% [10] - In the Americas, revenue rose by 12% to $740 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 16% to $106 million due to favorable volume growth [11] - North American shipments increased by 8%, driven by strong demand for nonalcoholic beverages, particularly energy drinks [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beverage can continues to gain market share in customers' packaging mix across all markets [6][19] - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 4%, outperforming the industry, which grew modestly [13] - The company anticipates shipments growth in the Americas segment of low to mid single digits for 2025, an increase from previous guidance [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects minimal impact from tariff measures due to the regional nature of its suppliers and customers [6][19] - There is a focus on customer innovation favoring beverage cans, which supports continued favorable shipment growth [7][19] - The company is targeting high-return projects to increase capacity and flexibility in Europe, reflecting the need for additional capacity to meet market growth [96][98] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business despite a dynamic macro environment, with expectations for continued favorable shipment growth [5][19] - The company upgraded its full-year guidance for shipments growth to 3% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA to a range of $695 million to $720 million [19][20] - Management remains cautious about the back half of the year due to potential macroeconomic volatility [80][92] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, with no changes to its capital allocation policy [17] - The company expects adjusted free cash flow for 2025 to be at least $150 million, with maintenance CapEx around $135 million [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in April and potential impacts from tariffs - Management noted no changes in April trends and attributed the guidance upgrade to continued sales momentum, particularly in North America [22][23] Question: Confidence in North American energy market recovery - Management expressed confidence in a broad-based recovery in the energy category, with strong growth from both traditional and innovative players [27][29] Question: Customer mix issues in Brazil - Management acknowledged volatility in Brazil but noted a strong performance in March, indicating a positive outlook despite caution [39][40] Question: Competitive landscape and contract renewals - Management indicated no material risks to volumes or margins from the competitive environment, with ongoing discussions about contract renewals progressing well [66][68] Question: Long-term growth outlook and beer category performance - Management remains optimistic about North American growth, suggesting potential recovery in the beer category if domestic brands regain market share from imports [104][105]
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-04-24 13:15
Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported quarterly earnings of $0.02 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.01 per share, marking a 100% earnings surprise compared to the previous year's earnings of $0.01 per share [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The company achieved revenues of $1.27 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.15% and showing an increase from $1.14 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ardagh Metal Packaging has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Ardagh Metal Packaging shares have declined approximately 8.3% since the beginning of the year, slightly better than the S&P 500's decline of 8.6% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.06 on revenues of $1.29 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.17 on revenues of $5.08 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, to which Ardagh belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8]
Why Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Could Beat Earnings Estimates Again
ZACKS· 2025-04-22 17:15
Core Insights - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is positioned as a strong candidate for investors due to its consistent performance in beating earnings estimates [1][2] - The company has an average surprise of 32.14% over the past two quarters, indicating a strong track record [2] - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated on April 24, 2025, with a positive Earnings ESP of +50%, suggesting bullish sentiment among analysts [8] Earnings Performance - In the most recent quarter, Ardagh reported earnings of $0.03 per share against an expectation of $0.02, resulting in a surprise of 50% [2] - For the previous quarter, the company exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.07 per share by reporting $0.08, achieving a surprise of 14.29% [2] Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Ardagh, supported by a positive Earnings ESP, which is a strong indicator of potential earnings beats [5][8] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - The current positive Earnings ESP indicates that analysts are optimistic about Ardagh's near-term earnings potential [8]
Ardagh Metal Packaging(AMBP) - 2024 Q4 - Annual Report
2025-03-04 17:13
Financial Performance - Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $126 million, or 166%, to $202 million compared to $76 million in 2023[316]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, increased by $123 million, or 3%, to $4,812 million compared to $4,689 million in 2022[329]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $72 million, or 12%, to $672 million compared to $600 million in 2023[350]. - The loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $47 million to $3 million, compared to a $50 million loss in 2023[327]. - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2023, decreased by $52 million, or 10%, to $474 million compared to $526 million in 2022[333]. - For the year ended December 31, 2024, Ardagh Metal Packaging reported total revenue of $4,908 million, an increase of $96 million or 2% compared to $4,812 million in 2023[358]. Expenses and Costs - Net finance expense for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $192 million, an increase of $45 million, or 31%, compared to $147 million in 2023[317]. - Income tax charge for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $13 million, compared to a tax credit of $21 million in 2023[324]. - Sales, general and administration expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, increased by $43 million, or 20%, to $255 million compared to $212 million in 2022[334]. - Exceptional items for 2024 totaled a net charge of $16 million, down from a net charge of $34 million in 2023, primarily due to lower start-up related costs[355][358]. - Exceptional costs paid, including restructuring, decreased to $53 million in 2024 from $56 million in 2023, primarily comprising $25 million of start-up costs and $22 million of restructuring costs[409]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash generated from operations for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $659 million, supporting the company's liquidity position[376]. - As of December 31, 2024, Ardagh Metal Packaging had $272 million available under the Global Asset Based Loan Facility[378]. - The company entered into a new €269 million ($300 million equivalent) senior secured term loan facility on September 24, 2024, maturing in September 2029[371]. - Total borrowings at December 31, 2024, amounted to $3,933 million, with net borrowings of $3,902 million after accounting for cash and cash equivalents[375]. - The company reported an operating profit of $202 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[382]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had $610 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, along with $353 million in undrawn liquidity under credit facilities[383]. - For the year ended December 31, 2024, net cash from operating activities was $450 million, a decrease of $166 million from $616 million in 2023, primarily due to a $230 million decrease in working capital inflows[393]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $179 million, which included $68 million on growth investment projects[397]. - The capital expenditure for the growth investment program was $68 million in 2024, down from $266 million in 2023, indicating a significant reduction as the program nears completion[415]. - In Europe, capital expenditure for 2024 was $76 million, down from $155 million in 2023, while in the Americas, it decreased from $223 million in 2023 to $103 million in 2024, both attributed to reduced growth investment spending[416]. - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2023, decreased by $217 million to $378 million, compared to $595 million for 2022, also driven by reduced spending on the growth investment program[417]. Debt and Obligations - Total contractual obligations as of December 31, 2024 amounted to $5.963 billion, with long-term debt capital repayment of $3.517 billion[389]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had total borrowings of $3.9 billion and net debt of $3.3 billion[155]. - The company’s substantial debt could limit its ability to raise additional capital and negatively impact its financial flexibility[159]. Risks and Compliance - The company faces risks related to potential disruptions in operations due to cybersecurity threats, which have been increasing in frequency and sophistication[116]. - The company has experienced adverse impacts from pandemics, including disruptions to supply chains and increased costs, which may continue to affect operations[102]. - The company is subject to extensive legal and regulatory frameworks, which may impose substantial costs and affect operations, particularly regarding environmental compliance and emissions reductions[125]. - The company anticipates increased compliance costs due to evolving regulations, including the EU Industrial Emissions Directive, which periodically reduces permitted pollutant emissions levels[128]. - The company may incur significant costs related to workplace injury and illness claims, which could impact its financial condition and reputation[138]. - The company is exposed to climate change risks, including physical risks from extreme weather events that could disrupt operations and increase production costs[121]. Shareholder and Market Information - The trading price of the company's Ordinary Shares is subject to volatility and may fluctuate significantly, potentially leading to substantial losses for shareholders[167]. - Factors influencing the trading price include announcements of new products, customer gains or losses, competitive developments, and changes in the global economy[169]. - The company has outstanding Warrants to purchase 16,749,984 Ordinary Shares at an exercise price of $11.50 per share, which may lead to dilution for existing shareholders[175]. - The company issued dividends on its Ordinary Shares quarterly in 2024, but future dividends will depend on various factors including financial condition and cash needs[180]. - The company’s ability to pay dividends may be restricted by its subsidiaries' financial conditions and existing indebtedness agreements[180]. - Future sales of Ordinary Shares by major shareholders could negatively impact the market price of the company's shares[174]. Corporate Governance - The company may be adversely affected by the actions and risks associated with its controlling shareholder, which could impact its share price and financial condition[166]. - AGSA indirectly owns approximately 76% of the company’s outstanding Ordinary Shares, which may lead to conflicts of interest[163]. - The company relies on administrative support from AGSA, and any failure in this support could result in operational difficulties[151]. - The Services Agreement with AGSA automatically renews annually, with fees based on the fully allocated cost of services provided[152].
Ardagh Metal Packaging(AMBP) - 2024 Q4 - Annual Report
2025-03-04 17:11
Financial Performance - Cost of sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $60 million, or 1%, to $4,278 million compared to $4,338 million in 2023, primarily due to lower exceptional costs[325]. - Gross profit increased by $156 million, or 33%, to $630 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, with a gross profit percentage rising to 12.8% from 9.9% in 2023[326]. - Operating profit increased by $126 million to $202 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $76 million in 2023, primarily due to higher gross profit[332]. - Net finance expense increased by $45 million to $192 million in 2024, with senior facilities interest expense rising by $8 million, or 6%[333]. - Income tax charge for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $13 million, compared to a tax credit of $21 million in 2023, reflecting an increase in profit before tax[338]. - The effective income tax rate on profit before exceptional items decreased to 28% in 2024 from 30% in 2023, attributed to changes in profitability mix[340]. - The loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $47 million to $3 million, compared to a $50 million loss in 2023[341]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $72 million, or 12%, to $672 million compared to $600 million in 2023[363]. - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $4,908 million, an increase of $96 million, or 2%, from $4,812 million in 2023[369]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue in Europe increased by $131 million, or 6%, to $2,161 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,030 million in 2023[370]. - Revenue in the Americas decreased by $35 million, or 1%, to $2,747 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,782 million in 2023[371]. - Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by $46 million, or 22%, to $257 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $211 million in 2023[372]. - Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas increased by $26 million, or 7%, to $415 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $389 million in 2023[373]. Exceptional Items and Costs - A net charge of $16 million was recognized as exceptional items for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to a net charge of $34 million in 2023[367]. - Exceptional costs paid, including restructuring, decreased by $3 million to $53 million in 2024, down from $56 million in 2023[420]. - Exceptional costs paid in 2023 decreased by $45 million to $56 million, down from $101 million in 2022[421]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was reported at $202 million, with cash generated from operations amounting to $659 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $672 million[394]. - Net cash from operating activities decreased by $166 million from $616 million in 2023 to $450 million in 2024, mainly due to a decrease in working capital inflows[406]. - The company had $610 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at December 31, 2024, along with available but undrawn liquidity of $353 million under credit facilities[395]. - The company expects to satisfy future long-term liquidity needs through a combination of cash flow generated from operations and refinancing of debt obligations[396]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $179 million, including $68 million on growth investment projects[408]. - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $199 million to $179 million, compared to $378 million in 2023[426]. - In Europe, capital expenditure for 2024 was $76 million, down from $155 million in 2023[427]. - In the Americas, capital expenditure for 2024 was $103 million, down from $223 million in 2023[427]. Debt and Borrowings - Total borrowings as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $3,933 million, with net debt available liquidity of $3,305 million[387]. - The company entered into a new credit facility with Banco Bradesco S.A. for BRL500 million (approximately $90 million) on October 7, 2024[382]. - The company secured a €269 million ($300 million equivalent) senior secured term loan facility on September 24, 2024, maturing in September 2029[383]. - Proceeds from borrowings for the year ended December 31, 2024, amounted to $517 million, reflecting the drawdown of the Group's Senior Secured Term Loan and Global Asset Based Loan Facility[411]. - Total contractual obligations at December 31, 2024, amounted to $5,963 million, with long-term debt capital repayment obligations of $3,517 million[401]. Environmental and Regulatory Risks - The company has set GHG emission reduction targets to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 42% and absolute Scope 3 emissions by 12.3% by 2030, approved by the SBTi[136]. - Compliance with evolving environmental regulations may impose substantial costs, including potential capital upgrades to production facilities due to stricter pollutant emissions levels[141]. - The company may face significant liabilities related to environmental contamination at sites it operates or has operated, which could impose substantial costs[144]. - Changes in laws regarding recycling and deposits on metal packaging could disrupt demand and affect production costs, potentially leading to reduced production of certain products[149]. Cybersecurity and Operational Risks - The company relies heavily on automated systems and technology for operations, with risks of disruptions from cybersecurity attacks and other failures that could materially affect business[126]. - Increased global cybersecurity threats, including AI-enabled attacks, pose significant risks to the security of the company's systems and data[127]. - The company has previously experienced cybersecurity incidents, leading to temporary shutdowns of IT systems, highlighting vulnerabilities in its cybersecurity program[129]. Shareholder and Market Risks - The company’s substantial debt could limit its flexibility in managing operations and pursuing growth opportunities, potentially placing it at a competitive disadvantage[173]. - The trading price of Ordinary Shares may be volatile, influenced by factors such as new product announcements, customer gains or losses, and general market conditions[185]. - Future sales of Ordinary Shares by AGSA or other shareholders could significantly reduce the market price of Ordinary Shares[191]. - The company may not be able to raise additional capital without significant costs or shareholder dilution, which could further limit its operational capabilities[177]. - The company’s ability to pay dividends on Ordinary Shares may be limited by restrictions on obtaining sufficient funds through dividends from subsidiaries[196].
Ardagh Metal Packaging(AMBP) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-27 16:53
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved a double-digit adjusted EBITDA increase, with a 3% growth in global volumes [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 grew by 11% year-over-year to $164 million, driven by higher sales volumes and production in Europe [8][26] - The company ended the year with nearly $1 billion in liquidity and a reduced net leverage ratio of 4.9 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA [7][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, revenue increased by 27% to $552 million, with shipments growing by 8% in Q4 [12][14] - Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 81% to $56 million, supported by positive volume growth and stronger input cost recovery [14] - In the Americas, revenue decreased by 7% to $653 million, with adjusted EBITDA decreasing by 1% to $108 million due to lower volumes [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beverage can continues to gain market share in customers' packaging mix, with expectations for industry shipment growth into 2025 [9][10] - In Brazil, Q4 beverage can shipments decreased by 15% due to a customer mix issue, but excluding this customer, shipments grew by 7% [18][19] - The North American market is expected to see low single-digit percentage growth in shipments in 2025, driven by recovery in the energy category and growth in carbonated soft drinks [17][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainability, having made significant progress towards renewable electricity targets and reducing greenhouse gas emissions [10][11] - The company anticipates continued growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2025 through increased shipments and operational improvements [9][28] - The company expects to maintain a capital allocation policy consistent with previous years, including a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share [25][79] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the market outlook, projecting global shipment growth of 2% to 3% for 2025 and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $675 million to $695 million [28][29] - Management noted that inflationary pressures and currency headwinds in Europe are expected to partially offset growth [28] - The company remains optimistic about the North American beverage can market, citing strong demand in carbonated soft drinks and alcoholic cocktails [42][72] Other Important Information - The company signed agreements for solar projects in Germany and a virtual power purchase agreement in Portugal, advancing its sustainability agenda [10] - The company recorded a reduction in overall total recordable incident rates and accident severity rates in 2024 [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on demand - Management indicated that the impact on retail prices is minimal, with costs being passed on to consumers, and they expect less impact in 2025 due to hedging [32][34] Question: Performance in the Americas - Management noted improvements in Brazil's volumes and recovery in the energy category in North America, expressing optimism for 2025 [36][38] Question: Growth forecast specifics - Management confirmed expectations for low single-digit growth in North America, driven by strength in carbonated soft drinks and alcoholic cocktails [42][72] Question: Glass to metal substitution trends - Management highlighted a long-term trend of glass to metal substitution in Europe, driven by energy costs and sustainability advantages [60][62] Question: Free cash flow outlook - Management provided guidance on expected cash flow items for 2025, indicating a slight reduction in free cash flow compared to 2024 [74][79] Question: Earnings outlook and volume growth - Management explained that headwinds from aluminum conversion costs and PPI in Europe would affect the translation of volume growth into EBITDA [102][104]
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-02-27 14:10
Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.02 per share, and showing an increase from $0.01 per share a year ago, indicating a 50% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $1.2 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.06%, compared to $1.13 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ardagh Metal Packaging has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Since the beginning of the year, Ardagh Metal Packaging shares have declined by approximately 3.3%, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.3% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for the stock is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.02 on revenues of $1.19 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.20 on revenues of $5.06 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Ardagh Metal Packaging is mixed, which may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, to which Ardagh belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8]
Ardagh Metal Packaging(AMBP) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-10-24 21:10
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AMP recorded a strong business performance in Q3 2024, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 15% year-over-year, reflecting strong double-digit growth across both segments [3] - Adjusted free cash flow generation for the quarter was $150 million, with a net leverage ratio reduced from 5.8 times at the end of Q2 to 5.6 at the end of Q3 [12][13] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was improved to a range of $650 million to $660 million, supported by global shipments growth expectation of 2% to 3% [4][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q3 revenue increased by 2% to $572 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 18% to $79 million due to favorable volume mix and stronger input cost recovery [5][6] - In the Americas, Q3 revenue increased by 1% to $741 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 13% to $117 million, driven by favorable volume mix effects and lower operating costs [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global beverage shipments grew by 2% in Q3 compared to the prior year, with strong demand for beverage cans amid resilient beverage consumption trends [3] - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 1% against a strong market backdrop, with expectations for high single-digit industry growth for the year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects beverage cans to continue outperforming other packaging types, supported by customer innovation and positive credentials regarding circularity and decarbonization [4] - AMP is progressing its sustainability agenda, including a large-scale virtual power purchase agreement in Portugal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2030 [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the European market, with expectations for shipment growth to increase to 3% to 4% for the year overall [6] - The company acknowledged pockets of weakness in the Americas, particularly in the energy category, which is expected to persist into Q4 [16] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $707 million, expected to increase to approximately $1 billion by year-end [13][14] - A quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share was announced, to be paid in December [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for Americas volume - Management confirmed a reduction in volume expectations for the Americas due to weakness in the energy category and specific customer issues in Brazil [16] Question: Drivers of European beverage can demand - Management highlighted long-term growth trends in Europe, with expectations for continued growth driven by pack-mix substitution and recovery in key markets [17][18] Question: Market growth expectations for 2025 - Management anticipates low single-digit growth in North America and mid-single digits in Brazil, with a cautious approach to growth relative to market dynamics [20][22] Question: CapEx and deleveraging strategy - Management indicated that the company could grow into its current network without significant additional growth CapEx for another year or two, with deleveraging expected from organic growth and cash flow [25][27] Question: Promotional activity trends - Management noted that promotional activity in North America is back to levels similar to last year, with ongoing growth in carbonated soft drinks despite muted activity in beer [50][51] Question: Impact of aluminum prices on customer behavior - Management stated that while aluminum prices have increased, they are still below levels that would drive significant substrate switching among customers [56]
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q3 Earnings Top Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-10-24 13:11
Company Performance - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported quarterly earnings of $0.08 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.07 per share, and up from $0.06 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 14.29% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.31 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.46%, compared to year-ago revenues of $1.29 billion [1] - Over the last four quarters, Ardagh has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once and has topped consensus revenue estimates just once [1] Stock Performance - Since the beginning of the year, Ardagh Metal Packaging shares have increased by approximately 9.1%, while the S&P 500 has gained 21.5% [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.04 on revenues of $1.17 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.16 on revenues of $4.91 billion [4] Industry Outlook - The Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, to which Ardagh belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [5] - Another company in the same industry, TriMas, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.57 per share, with revenues projected at $240.65 million, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the previous year [5][6]