Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported quarterly earnings of $0.02 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.01 per share, marking a 100% earnings surprise compared to the previous year's earnings of $0.01 per share [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The company achieved revenues of $1.27 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.15% and showing an increase from $1.14 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ardagh Metal Packaging has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Ardagh Metal Packaging shares have declined approximately 8.3% since the beginning of the year, slightly better than the S&P 500's decline of 8.6% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.06 on revenues of $1.29 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.17 on revenues of $5.08 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, to which Ardagh belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8]

Core Insights - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is positioned as a strong candidate for investors due to its consistent performance in beating earnings estimates [1][2] - The company has an average surprise of 32.14% over the past two quarters, indicating a strong track record [2] - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated on April 24, 2025, with a positive Earnings ESP of +50%, suggesting bullish sentiment among analysts [8] Earnings Performance - In the most recent quarter, Ardagh reported earnings of $0.03 per share against an expectation of $0.02, resulting in a surprise of 50% [2] - For the previous quarter, the company exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.07 per share by reporting $0.08, achieving a surprise of 14.29% [2] Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Ardagh, supported by a positive Earnings ESP, which is a strong indicator of potential earnings beats [5][8] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - The current positive Earnings ESP indicates that analysts are optimistic about Ardagh's near-term earnings potential [8]

Financial Performance - Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $126 million, or 166%, to $202 million compared to $76 million in 2023[316]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, increased by $123 million, or 3%, to $4,812 million compared to $4,689 million in 2022[329]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $72 million, or 12%, to $672 million compared to $600 million in 2023[350]. - The loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $47 million to $3 million, compared to a $50 million loss in 2023[327]. - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2023, decreased by $52 million, or 10%, to $474 million compared to $526 million in 2022[333]. - For the year ended December 31, 2024, Ardagh Metal Packaging reported total revenue of $4,908 million, an increase of $96 million or 2% compared to $4,812 million in 2023[358]. Expenses and Costs - Net finance expense for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $192 million, an increase of $45 million, or 31%, compared to $147 million in 2023[317]. - Income tax charge for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $13 million, compared to a tax credit of $21 million in 2023[324]. - Sales, general and administration expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, increased by $43 million, or 20%, to $255 million compared to $212 million in 2022[334]. - Exceptional items for 2024 totaled a net charge of $16 million, down from a net charge of $34 million in 2023, primarily due to lower start-up related costs[355][358]. - Exceptional costs paid, including restructuring, decreased to $53 million in 2024 from $56 million in 2023, primarily comprising $25 million of start-up costs and $22 million of restructuring costs[409]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash generated from operations for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $659 million, supporting the company's liquidity position[376]. - As of December 31, 2024, Ardagh Metal Packaging had $272 million available under the Global Asset Based Loan Facility[378]. - The company entered into a new €269 million ($300 million equivalent) senior secured term loan facility on September 24, 2024, maturing in September 2029[371]. - Total borrowings at December 31, 2024, amounted to $3,933 million, with net borrowings of $3,902 million after accounting for cash and cash equivalents[375]. - The company reported an operating profit of $202 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[382]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had $610 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, along with $353 million in undrawn liquidity under credit facilities[383]. - For the year ended December 31, 2024, net cash from operating activities was $450 million, a decrease of $166 million from $616 million in 2023, primarily due to a $230 million decrease in working capital inflows[393]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $179 million, which included $68 million on growth investment projects[397]. - The capital expenditure for the growth investment program was $68 million in 2024, down from $266 million in 2023, indicating a significant reduction as the program nears completion[415]. - In Europe, capital expenditure for 2024 was $76 million, down from $155 million in 2023, while in the Americas, it decreased from $223 million in 2023 to $103 million in 2024, both attributed to reduced growth investment spending[416]. - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2023, decreased by $217 million to $378 million, compared to $595 million for 2022, also driven by reduced spending on the growth investment program[417]. Debt and Obligations - Total contractual obligations as of December 31, 2024 amounted to $5.963 billion, with long-term debt capital repayment of $3.517 billion[389]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had total borrowings of $3.9 billion and net debt of $3.3 billion[155]. - The company’s substantial debt could limit its ability to raise additional capital and negatively impact its financial flexibility[159]. Risks and Compliance - The company faces risks related to potential disruptions in operations due to cybersecurity threats, which have been increasing in frequency and sophistication[116]. - The company has experienced adverse impacts from pandemics, including disruptions to supply chains and increased costs, which may continue to affect operations[102]. - The company is subject to extensive legal and regulatory frameworks, which may impose substantial costs and affect operations, particularly regarding environmental compliance and emissions reductions[125]. - The company anticipates increased compliance costs due to evolving regulations, including the EU Industrial Emissions Directive, which periodically reduces permitted pollutant emissions levels[128]. - The company may incur significant costs related to workplace injury and illness claims, which could impact its financial condition and reputation[138]. - The company is exposed to climate change risks, including physical risks from extreme weather events that could disrupt operations and increase production costs[121]. Shareholder and Market Information - The trading price of the company's Ordinary Shares is subject to volatility and may fluctuate significantly, potentially leading to substantial losses for shareholders[167]. - Factors influencing the trading price include announcements of new products, customer gains or losses, competitive developments, and changes in the global economy[169]. - The company has outstanding Warrants to purchase 16,749,984 Ordinary Shares at an exercise price of $11.50 per share, which may lead to dilution for existing shareholders[175]. - The company issued dividends on its Ordinary Shares quarterly in 2024, but future dividends will depend on various factors including financial condition and cash needs[180]. - The company’s ability to pay dividends may be restricted by its subsidiaries' financial conditions and existing indebtedness agreements[180]. - Future sales of Ordinary Shares by major shareholders could negatively impact the market price of the company's shares[174]. Corporate Governance - The company may be adversely affected by the actions and risks associated with its controlling shareholder, which could impact its share price and financial condition[166]. - AGSA indirectly owns approximately 76% of the company’s outstanding Ordinary Shares, which may lead to conflicts of interest[163]. - The company relies on administrative support from AGSA, and any failure in this support could result in operational difficulties[151]. - The Services Agreement with AGSA automatically renews annually, with fees based on the fully allocated cost of services provided[152].

Financial Performance - Cost of sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $60 million, or 1%, to $4,278 million compared to $4,338 million in 2023, primarily due to lower exceptional costs[325]. - Gross profit increased by $156 million, or 33%, to $630 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, with a gross profit percentage rising to 12.8% from 9.9% in 2023[326]. - Operating profit increased by $126 million to $202 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $76 million in 2023, primarily due to higher gross profit[332]. - Net finance expense increased by $45 million to $192 million in 2024, with senior facilities interest expense rising by $8 million, or 6%[333]. - Income tax charge for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $13 million, compared to a tax credit of $21 million in 2023, reflecting an increase in profit before tax[338]. - The effective income tax rate on profit before exceptional items decreased to 28% in 2024 from 30% in 2023, attributed to changes in profitability mix[340]. - The loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $47 million to $3 million, compared to a $50 million loss in 2023[341]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $72 million, or 12%, to $672 million compared to $600 million in 2023[363]. - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $4,908 million, an increase of $96 million, or 2%, from $4,812 million in 2023[369]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue in Europe increased by $131 million, or 6%, to $2,161 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,030 million in 2023[370]. - Revenue in the Americas decreased by $35 million, or 1%, to $2,747 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,782 million in 2023[371]. - Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by $46 million, or 22%, to $257 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $211 million in 2023[372]. - Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas increased by $26 million, or 7%, to $415 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $389 million in 2023[373]. Exceptional Items and Costs - A net charge of $16 million was recognized as exceptional items for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to a net charge of $34 million in 2023[367]. - Exceptional costs paid, including restructuring, decreased by $3 million to $53 million in 2024, down from $56 million in 2023[420]. - Exceptional costs paid in 2023 decreased by $45 million to $56 million, down from $101 million in 2022[421]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was reported at $202 million, with cash generated from operations amounting to $659 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $672 million[394]. - Net cash from operating activities decreased by $166 million from $616 million in 2023 to $450 million in 2024, mainly due to a decrease in working capital inflows[406]. - The company had $610 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at December 31, 2024, along with available but undrawn liquidity of $353 million under credit facilities[395]. - The company expects to satisfy future long-term liquidity needs through a combination of cash flow generated from operations and refinancing of debt obligations[396]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $179 million, including $68 million on growth investment projects[408]. - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024, decreased by $199 million to $179 million, compared to $378 million in 2023[426]. - In Europe, capital expenditure for 2024 was $76 million, down from $155 million in 2023[427]. - In the Americas, capital expenditure for 2024 was $103 million, down from $223 million in 2023[427]. Debt and Borrowings - Total borrowings as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $3,933 million, with net debt available liquidity of $3,305 million[387]. - The company entered into a new credit facility with Banco Bradesco S.A. for BRL500 million (approximately $90 million) on October 7, 2024[382]. - The company secured a €269 million ($300 million equivalent) senior secured term loan facility on September 24, 2024, maturing in September 2029[383]. - Proceeds from borrowings for the year ended December 31, 2024, amounted to $517 million, reflecting the drawdown of the Group's Senior Secured Term Loan and Global Asset Based Loan Facility[411]. - Total contractual obligations at December 31, 2024, amounted to $5,963 million, with long-term debt capital repayment obligations of $3,517 million[401]. Environmental and Regulatory Risks - The company has set GHG emission reduction targets to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 42% and absolute Scope 3 emissions by 12.3% by 2030, approved by the SBTi[136]. - Compliance with evolving environmental regulations may impose substantial costs, including potential capital upgrades to production facilities due to stricter pollutant emissions levels[141]. - The company may face significant liabilities related to environmental contamination at sites it operates or has operated, which could impose substantial costs[144]. - Changes in laws regarding recycling and deposits on metal packaging could disrupt demand and affect production costs, potentially leading to reduced production of certain products[149]. Cybersecurity and Operational Risks - The company relies heavily on automated systems and technology for operations, with risks of disruptions from cybersecurity attacks and other failures that could materially affect business[126]. - Increased global cybersecurity threats, including AI-enabled attacks, pose significant risks to the security of the company's systems and data[127]. - The company has previously experienced cybersecurity incidents, leading to temporary shutdowns of IT systems, highlighting vulnerabilities in its cybersecurity program[129]. Shareholder and Market Risks - The company’s substantial debt could limit its flexibility in managing operations and pursuing growth opportunities, potentially placing it at a competitive disadvantage[173]. - The trading price of Ordinary Shares may be volatile, influenced by factors such as new product announcements, customer gains or losses, and general market conditions[185]. - Future sales of Ordinary Shares by AGSA or other shareholders could significantly reduce the market price of Ordinary Shares[191]. - The company may not be able to raise additional capital without significant costs or shareholder dilution, which could further limit its operational capabilities[177]. - The company’s ability to pay dividends on Ordinary Shares may be limited by restrictions on obtaining sufficient funds through dividends from subsidiaries[196].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved a double-digit adjusted EBITDA increase, with a 3% growth in global volumes [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 grew by 11% year-over-year to $164 million, driven by higher sales volumes and production in Europe [8][26] - The company ended the year with nearly $1 billion in liquidity and a reduced net leverage ratio of 4.9 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA [7][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, revenue increased by 27% to $552 million, with shipments growing by 8% in Q4 [12][14] - Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 81% to $56 million, supported by positive volume growth and stronger input cost recovery [14] - In the Americas, revenue decreased by 7% to $653 million, with adjusted EBITDA decreasing by 1% to $108 million due to lower volumes [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beverage can continues to gain market share in customers' packaging mix, with expectations for industry shipment growth into 2025 [9][10] - In Brazil, Q4 beverage can shipments decreased by 15% due to a customer mix issue, but excluding this customer, shipments grew by 7% [18][19] - The North American market is expected to see low single-digit percentage growth in shipments in 2025, driven by recovery in the energy category and growth in carbonated soft drinks [17][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainability, having made significant progress towards renewable electricity targets and reducing greenhouse gas emissions [10][11] - The company anticipates continued growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2025 through increased shipments and operational improvements [9][28] - The company expects to maintain a capital allocation policy consistent with previous years, including a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share [25][79] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the market outlook, projecting global shipment growth of 2% to 3% for 2025 and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $675 million to $695 million [28][29] - Management noted that inflationary pressures and currency headwinds in Europe are expected to partially offset growth [28] - The company remains optimistic about the North American beverage can market, citing strong demand in carbonated soft drinks and alcoholic cocktails [42][72] Other Important Information - The company signed agreements for solar projects in Germany and a virtual power purchase agreement in Portugal, advancing its sustainability agenda [10] - The company recorded a reduction in overall total recordable incident rates and accident severity rates in 2024 [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on demand - Management indicated that the impact on retail prices is minimal, with costs being passed on to consumers, and they expect less impact in 2025 due to hedging [32][34] Question: Performance in the Americas - Management noted improvements in Brazil's volumes and recovery in the energy category in North America, expressing optimism for 2025 [36][38] Question: Growth forecast specifics - Management confirmed expectations for low single-digit growth in North America, driven by strength in carbonated soft drinks and alcoholic cocktails [42][72] Question: Glass to metal substitution trends - Management highlighted a long-term trend of glass to metal substitution in Europe, driven by energy costs and sustainability advantages [60][62] Question: Free cash flow outlook - Management provided guidance on expected cash flow items for 2025, indicating a slight reduction in free cash flow compared to 2024 [74][79] Question: Earnings outlook and volume growth - Management explained that headwinds from aluminum conversion costs and PPI in Europe would affect the translation of volume growth into EBITDA [102][104]

Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.02 per share, and showing an increase from $0.01 per share a year ago, indicating a 50% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $1.2 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.06%, compared to $1.13 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ardagh Metal Packaging has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Since the beginning of the year, Ardagh Metal Packaging shares have declined by approximately 3.3%, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.3% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for the stock is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.02 on revenues of $1.19 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.20 on revenues of $5.06 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Ardagh Metal Packaging is mixed, which may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, to which Ardagh belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AMP recorded a strong business performance in Q3 2024, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 15% year-over-year, reflecting strong double-digit growth across both segments [3] - Adjusted free cash flow generation for the quarter was $150 million, with a net leverage ratio reduced from 5.8 times at the end of Q2 to 5.6 at the end of Q3 [12][13] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was improved to a range of $650 million to $660 million, supported by global shipments growth expectation of 2% to 3% [4][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q3 revenue increased by 2% to $572 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 18% to $79 million due to favorable volume mix and stronger input cost recovery [5][6] - In the Americas, Q3 revenue increased by 1% to $741 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 13% to $117 million, driven by favorable volume mix effects and lower operating costs [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global beverage shipments grew by 2% in Q3 compared to the prior year, with strong demand for beverage cans amid resilient beverage consumption trends [3] - In Brazil, beverage can shipments increased by 1% against a strong market backdrop, with expectations for high single-digit industry growth for the year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects beverage cans to continue outperforming other packaging types, supported by customer innovation and positive credentials regarding circularity and decarbonization [4] - AMP is progressing its sustainability agenda, including a large-scale virtual power purchase agreement in Portugal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2030 [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the European market, with expectations for shipment growth to increase to 3% to 4% for the year overall [6] - The company acknowledged pockets of weakness in the Americas, particularly in the energy category, which is expected to persist into Q4 [16] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $707 million, expected to increase to approximately $1 billion by year-end [13][14] - A quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share was announced, to be paid in December [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for Americas volume - Management confirmed a reduction in volume expectations for the Americas due to weakness in the energy category and specific customer issues in Brazil [16] Question: Drivers of European beverage can demand - Management highlighted long-term growth trends in Europe, with expectations for continued growth driven by pack-mix substitution and recovery in key markets [17][18] Question: Market growth expectations for 2025 - Management anticipates low single-digit growth in North America and mid-single digits in Brazil, with a cautious approach to growth relative to market dynamics [20][22] Question: CapEx and deleveraging strategy - Management indicated that the company could grow into its current network without significant additional growth CapEx for another year or two, with deleveraging expected from organic growth and cash flow [25][27] Question: Promotional activity trends - Management noted that promotional activity in North America is back to levels similar to last year, with ongoing growth in carbonated soft drinks despite muted activity in beer [50][51] Question: Impact of aluminum prices on customer behavior - Management stated that while aluminum prices have increased, they are still below levels that would drive significant substrate switching among customers [56]

Company Performance - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported quarterly earnings of $0.08 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.07 per share, and up from $0.06 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 14.29% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.31 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.46%, compared to year-ago revenues of $1.29 billion [1] - Over the last four quarters, Ardagh has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once and has topped consensus revenue estimates just once [1] Stock Performance - Since the beginning of the year, Ardagh Metal Packaging shares have increased by approximately 9.1%, while the S&P 500 has gained 21.5% [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.04 on revenues of $1.17 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.16 on revenues of $4.91 billion [4] Industry Outlook - The Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry, to which Ardagh belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [5] - Another company in the same industry, TriMas, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.57 per share, with revenues projected at $240.65 million, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the previous year [5][6]

Financial Performance - Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) reported a 15% increase in Q3 Adjusted EBITDA, reaching $196 million, driven by double-digit growth in both Europe and the Americas[33] - The company improved its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $650-660 million, up from the previous $640-660 million[17, 38] - Q3 revenue increased by 1% to $1.313 billion[33] - AMP has strong Q3 liquidity of $0.7 billion and expects it to increase to approximately $1 billion by the end of 2024[17] Regional Performance - Europe's revenue increased by 2%, with Adjusted EBITDA up by 18% due to higher input cost recovery and favorable volume/mix[35] - Americas revenue increased by 1%, with Adjusted EBITDA up by 13% driven by favorable volume/mix effects and lower operating costs[35] - Global shipment growth was 2% in Q3, with strong end market performance in Europe[14, 22] Strategic Initiatives - AMP secured a solar virtual Power Purchase Agreement (vPPA) in Portugal, representing approximately 50% of AMP Europe's continental energy consumption[27] - A new credit facility was agreed in Brazil for BRL 500 million (approximately $90 million) to further strengthen liquidity[30] Market Position - AMP is a leading global supplier of sustainable and infinitely recyclable metal beverage cans, with sales of $4.8 billion in 2023[4] - The company holds leading market positions, ranking 2 in Europe and 3 in North America and Brazil[9]

Core Viewpoint - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is showing potential for a bullish breakout as it has reached a key support level and experienced a "golden cross" in its moving averages [1][2] Technical Analysis - AMBP's 50-day simple moving average has crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, indicating a bullish trend [1] - The stock has rallied 13.6% over the past four weeks, suggesting positive momentum [2] - The occurrence of a golden cross typically indicates a trend reversal from a downtrend to an upward trajectory [1] Earnings Expectations - There have been two upward revisions in earnings expectations for the current quarter, with no downward revisions in the past 60 days [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMBP has also moved up, reinforcing the bullish outlook [2] Summary of Indicators - AMBP is currently rated 2 (Buy) on the Zacks Rank, indicating strong potential for further gains [2] - The combination of positive earnings revisions and technical indicators suggests that investors should monitor AMBP closely for potential price increases [2]